JoeSmith16

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JoeSmith16's Tips History

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22 February 2026
16:30 4:30 Naas

Captain Guinness

Daily Racing

100 WINNB

@+225

Lose

-100

He's clearly not the force of old, but does he need to be to win this? Definitely not. Blood Destiny is favourite, but he is a big soft lad. Captain Guinness can worry him out of it! His form is by far stronger than anything in the field. This old champion can show his old class down in lower grade.
14:00 2:00 Naas

Lynches Knock

Daily Racing

178 WINNAP

@+200

Lose

-178

3rd on debut, which was promising. Backed that up with victory at Leopardstown over Xmas in one of those academy hurdles. Went on to be second in a maiden, which was a pretty strong affair on paper. You could argue this might be a tad sharp for him, but he handles soft/heavy going, so hopefully the ground will nullify the trip concerns. Has a great chance. He then came
21 February 2026
16:05 4:05 Kempton

Bad

Daily Racing

125 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.50 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG

@+350

Lose

-38

It wouldn't be a Saturday without a Pauling/Jones winner. He won this race last year, albeit off a considerably lower mark. You can't ignore he is 3/3 at Kempton and arrives here off a brilliant, confidence-boosting second at Ascot last time out. It's a competitive race for sure, but Bad's simmering nicely to win this again.
15:35 3:35 Kempton

Hoe Joly Smoke

Daily Racing

116 EWNB

@+700

Lose

-232

This lad has had a fine, consistent campaign without actually winning. Placed in two big Cheltenham handicaps. One of those was the big Paddy Power Gold Cup, behind Panic Attack. He was 5th the following month, but I'm keen to say that probably came too soon, albeit he wasn't beaten too far. He's been freshened up for this, back to 3 miles where he holds some strong form. Cheekpieces added today will also help him. All in all, I think he's got a massive chance.
15:00 3:00 Kempton

Mustang Du Breuil

Daily Racing

100 EW

@+332

Lose

-34

Must be noted that he runs here as a 4-year-old for a yard that has a brilliant record in the race. He receives the age allowance. He arrives here after a pretty easy victory earlier this month. This obviously is a much harder race, but how good is this lad? We don't know. Nearly every horse in the race is a last-time-out winner, so it's ultra competitive. Nicky's yard is ticking along nicely, and it's hard to see Mustang out of the top 3.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Kempton

Precious Man

Daily Racing

150 WINNAP

@-120

Lose

-150

Winner of two races in France before being beaten by the reopposing one, Town, in a Triumph Trial in November. A mistake at the last really ended his chances. He ran here after wind surgery and couldn't have won any easier. Connections I noticed are bypassing Cheltenham, so this fits in nicely with his schedule. I believe this lad is and will be a very, very good horse. I don't see anything matching his ability here today if he gets a clear run.
1 member found this comment useful
16 February 2026
15:50 3:50 Fairyhouse

Lynches Knock

Daily Racing

132 WINNAP

@+137

Void

0

3rd on debut. Promising. Backed that up with a victory at Leopardstown at Xmas. 2nd in a maiden, then with some very nice types in behind. Handles heavy ground, which is a nice asset to have with all the rain around lately. You could argue this may be sharp, but the ground will hopefully nullify that. Great chance.
14:35 2:35 Carlisle

Ayiko

Daily Racing

100 EWNB

@+450

Lose

-200

Not the most prolific of winners, but he has a brilliant chance of getting that feeling back tomorrow. Unseated last time out, but before that he was ultra-consistent. If he transfers his hurdle form to chasing and is none the worse for last time's incident, he will be the one to beat. Handles the ground. Intriguing mark with scope for improvement.
15 February 2026
13:30 1:30 Punchestown

Pure Steel

Daily Racing

112 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 2.20 on 14/02 at 21:210.10 deduction for Da Capo Glory@9.00 withdrawn at 08:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.20 x (1-0.10) = 2.08

@+108

Win

120

I expect Pure Steel to have too much quality here. Put a line through his last run. His victory before that is pretty solid form, with plenty in behind that day winning or running strong races next time out. I won't mind the ground, and a repeat of his last win here at Punchestown should be enough alone without thinking about the expected improvement.
14 February 2026
15:35 3:35 Ascot

Pic DOrhy

Daily Racing

122 WINNAP

@+200

Lose

-122

This is Pic D'Orhy's Gold Cup. Winner of this the last two seasons, beating Corbett's Cross and L'Homme Pressé. Both are similar ability-wise to Jonbon. Jonbon, I know, is a multiple Grade One winner and nothing can take away from that, but I've always questioned the true form. He's also never been this far. Pic D'Orhy's jumping is his main asset and will really put Jonbon under pressure. While the ground may be a question mark, that's when jumping becomes even more important. I have the Nicholls lad winning this in an epic encounter.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Haydock

Whiskey Yankee

Daily Racing

75 EWNB

@+750

Lose

-150

If Haydock gets the go-ahead, as we have become used to, Haydock will take some getting today. Whiskey Yankee has had one run over hurdles and it was a winning one. He's left us thinking, how good can he be? In my opinion he's a Bartlett contender and will love this test today.
13:50 1:50 Ascot

The Jukebox Kid

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@-161

Win

62

2/3 over fences with sole defeat coming at Cheltenham. Possibly failed to handle the undulations first time there. Superb last time out over today's course and distance, beating some nice improving horses. Obviously today's race, on paper, looks better quality, but The Jukebox Kid is improving nicely and should be up to the task of winning again. Montregard, who he beat here last time out, runs later on the card, so keep an eye on him.
08 February 2026
14:50 2:50 Navan

Irancy

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@+700

Lose

-100

One of those races that are normally filled with horses on recovery missions. This year is no different. Are the stayers Hurdle contenders? Probably not! Are they Champion Hurdle horses? Definitely not! One horse that stands out for me is Irancy. Seventh in the Supreme before winning at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in Grade 2/1 company. Failed to fire so far this season in two runs, so it's up in trip for him. He has looked a tad slow so far this season. Is this a run to get a nice handicap mark for the spring festivals? Or is he here to win over this trip and open more doors? He's rated above the majority of these. If he settles and stays, then surely he's too good.
1 member found this comment useful
07 February 2026
15:20 3:20 Newbury

Un Sens A La Vie

Daily Racing

50 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 12.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@+1100

Win

60

I love the way this lad has been campaigned with this race in mind. Former point winner. Won a couple of early affairs at Market Rasen before disappointing at Cheltenham. Willing to forgive him that. Then bumped into Old Park Star before regaining the winning feeling at Ludlow. On form alone through Old Park Star, he must be close here. He's yet to race on forecast ground, but all Twiston-Davies horses handle it. Some even improve for it! This lad is hardy, has a lovely mark, and will enjoy the fast pace. Fantastic each-way angle.
14:45 2:45 Newbury

Lulamba

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@-161

Win

62

Whether he actually runs or not is another story, but if he does (I think he will), then he simply is the one to beat. It's his first time in open company and he lacks experience, but he is just top class. He has so much scope over a fence, looks straightforward enough to ride, and has plenty of improving to do, which is scary. This will be a test of his ability. Nicky has used this race for plenty of his novices, so it's a well-trod route. I think he wins this before going on to absolutely hack up in the Arkle.
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Warwick

Hollygrove Cha Cha

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@+200

Win

200

I love this mare. In the past I have called her the most talented horse in the yard, and I still stand by that. She has slightly disappointed over fences after having a positive start in the Colin Parker early doors. Back hurdling today is a great idea. She is a Grade Two winner over hurdles. I'm not sure the favourite is all that reliable. Hollygrove will really dig in and fight today, and I don't think they can match that desire. She wins.
02 February 2026
15:30 3:30 Leopardstown

Affordale Fury

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@+1100

Lose

-200

A horse who continues to be underrated. Winner of the Savills at Christmas. Always runs his race and is a model of consistency. The win at Christmas was no fluke. He clearly stays the trip and handles the forecast going. With plenty of question marks around the opposition, he surely is a solid option.
01 February 2026
15:40 3:40 Musselburgh

Double Powerful

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@+400

Lose

-200

A competitive affair, as you would expect for a Pertemps qualifier. This season, Double Powerful has been unlucky and good. He started novice chasing but only finished one of those three races. He went back hurdling and got really unlucky when the jockey was unseated after a faller in front of him. He ran in the Lanzarote and then put it all together to finish a fine second. I expect more improvement to come here today, back up in trip. He handles any ground, so is a solid option in what are normally messy races to predict.
14:45 2:45 Leopardstown

Ile Atlantique

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@+750

Lose

-100

Yet to really show everyone his true ability. He was a brilliant novice hurdler but just fell short of Grade One level. In novice chases he showed promise before coming undone with two non-completions. He returned this year with two runs. His last run on New Year's Day was better. The key with this lad is the ground. He needs cut, which he will get plenty of today. In fact, the slower the ground the better. That's where I think he can really stand out here. Handicap debut ??" his mark could be stiff, but he's the old graded horse in a handicap shout. Dan the Man on board. So many positives.

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