Lurpak11
Like thinking outside the box. Football & Horseracing markets the main. Not a scattered gun approach to betting. Logic and backed up by facts and figures.
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Lurpak11's Tips History
07 January 2026
20:15 Burnley v Man Utd
Burnley
50 WIN
@5.60
Lose
-50
Burnley are struggling in the Premier League this season with only three wins from 20 matches. Hosts United are three points off Champions League places, so which team sacked their manager this week? Burnley play decent football under Scott Parker but are just getting punished for everything. It's difficult to judge how United will play, and whether confidence is high or low. With that doubt, United cannot be backed with any confidence. They have only won one of their last five, 1-0 against Newcastle. Burnley are value to make matters worse for United, if that were possible.
20:15 Newcastle v Leeds
Draw
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Leeds have drawn their last three matches against Sunderland, Liverpool and United. They will fancy their chances of doing at least the same against a Newcastle side that have won their last two against teams not in the best of form. They got beaten by United and drew 2-2 against Chelsea. Not the most consistent of hosts. The visitors will come ready to battle and could take a point back to Leeds.
19:45 Lazio v Fiorentina
Fiorentina
50 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-50
Visitors Fiorentina have two wins from their last five matches in a fight for Serie A survival. They have failed to win any of their nine away matches, with four draws. So they are in better form to break their away duck in the capital against Lazio, whose home form isn’t out of this world either. Lazio have only one win in their last five, against Parma, narrowly 1-0. This might not be pretty, but the visitors to nick all three points is the value call for me.
19:30 Bournemouth v Tottenham
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have been in some high-scoring affairs recently, with a 4-4 draw against Manchester United and 2-2 against Chelsea. They possibly deserved better against league leaders Arsenal last weekend. Thomas Frank's visitors have only one win in their last five matches, only scoring two goals in the process. I believe that the hosts are value to take advantage of Spurs' frailty in front of goal and defensively. The hosts have scored 11 goals that have resulted in only three points from 15, and compensation could be coming tonight.
19:30 Brentford v Sunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland have drawn their last four matches and are unbeaten in five, which included games against City, Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and Leeds. Given that form, they are too big a price against a Brentford side who sometimes don't promise to kick on when expected. They are in very decent form recently with big wins against Everton and Bournemouth. In the visitors, they are stubborn in defence (just ask Pep) and could nick this. Too big a price to ignore, and the trip to London should be worth it.
19:30 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Palace are possibly finding it tough to balance European football and holding their form in the Premier League, as they are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Villa, if they are to be serious about their title credentials, should be taking all three points tonight. With an in-form Ollie Watkins spearheading an attacking Villa side, they should have too much in the end for the hosts, who will not go down without a fight.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Palace won the reverse fixture 3-0 when they were in much better form than recently. The hosts' last eight matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in them. Villa are entertaining, and if they want to put maximum pressure on Arsenal tomorrow against Liverpool they will need to be open and attacking. That could leave chances for Palace to at least get a consolation goal.
19:30 Everton v Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton
50 WIN
@4.80
Lose
-50
Both sides had very different match days last weekend, with hosts Everton going down 4-2 to Brentford and Wolves getting their first win of their struggling season against fellow relegation-threatened West Ham, 3-0. Wolves have nothing to lose, as they are more or less already doomed to the Championship, so could be dangerous opposition now they have got a win finally under their belt. Everton have the same old problem: being unable to score, with only four goals in their last five matches. Wolves are too big a price given that Everton will be defensively cautious after that big defeat.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
The reverse fixture resulted in a narrow 3-2 victory for tonight's hosts, and a free-flowing match could again be on the cards. Everton conceded four at the weekend, while Wolves won their first match of the selection, scoring three. Take the odds against both sides defending by attacking, and that this could be any scoreline given the fact that the hosts have nothing to lose in going forward.
19:30 Fulham v Chelsea
Fulham
Another Chelsea manager goes, which does not bode well for their short trip across West London to Fulham. In Harry Wilson, the hosts have one of the in-form attackers in the league at present. Chelsea will be wondering what is happening behind the scenes. Confidence cannot be high considering what is going on, and they cannot be backed with any confidence. Silva's Fulham are a solid unit, which can't be said for their visitors. Take the home win; that will show exactly what a tough challenge the new gaffer will be in for.
19:30 Man City v Brighton
Brighton
50 WIN
@6.25
Lose
-50
Hosts Manchester City have defensive problems all over the place, with a recall of one of their youth players from Watford recently. They have failed to win their last two matches. Brighton have an attacking and solid setup to test a top team at full strength, never mind one full of holes. I'm not convinced by their Italian keeper either; he will be tested tonight. City could end up winning this easily, but only loyal punters are risking City at 2s on. Value is with the visitors, making Pep's week worse.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.42
Lose
-50
Brighton won this reverse fixture 2-1 last year, and a similar scoreline cannot be ruled out given how patched up the host's defence will be. Brighton are a solid outfit who will surely press from the first whistle at their hosts' inexperienced back four. An early goal, and this could be a very entertaining encounter.
17:30 Bologna v Atalanta
Draw
50 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-50
Bologna are going through a rough patch form-wise with no win in their last five competitive games but still sit 7th in Serie A. Their hosts Atalanta are in much better form, with four wins in their last five matches, only going down by the only goal against Inter Milan. This could be a tight affair given the possible momentum for European football next season, so an entertaining draw should be on the cards.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Given that I expect this to be a tighter affair than recent form suggests, I can see this going under 2.5 goals with defence getting the better of both attacks. Bologna will want to stem the tide of losing matches and have more than enough to hold out against an attacking Atalanta side, who have good form but could be frustrated tonight by the hosts.
17:30 Napoli v Verona
Napoli
50 WIN
@1.36
Lose
-50
Challenging. Napoli are strong favourites to beat relegation??'threatened Hellas Verona and should justify that by taking three valuable points this evening. The hosts have won their last four matches in all competitions since a narrow 1-0 defeat to Udinese. The visitors have lost their last two games by the same 3-0 scoreline, and a trip to Naples, I’m sure, is the last thing they want. This should be an easy win for the hosts if they are professional, which, given the manager, they should be.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
The last five games by the hosts have resulted in over 2.5 goals, and the visitors have had none go over 2.5 goals in a similar period. Hellas Verona have let in three in their last two games, and Napoli will be licking their lips with attacking options galore. Take the over.
Subtotal-395
06 January 2026
20:00 West Ham v Nottm Forest
Nottm Forest
50 WIN
@2.38
Win
69
Nottingham Forest have the only win in the collective last ten matches between these two struggling sides and should be a lot better than their league form suggests. They played better than the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City deserved, so could well be overlooked against a West Ham team deep in the relegation fight. Take the away team to take all three points before gradually creeping up the table to safety.
Subtotal69
03 January 2026
20:30 8:30 Southwell
Shahbaz
Daily Racing
25 EW
@81.00
Lose
-50
Shahbaz's handicap mark is tumbling. It is now 4 lb below their last winning rating in August last year. It's too big a price in an open race, and if bouncing back to any kind of form could be well in the mix to be placed at least at a huge price.
19:30 7:30 Southwell
Foxtrot Flyer
Daily Racing
Foxtrot Flyer wasn't beaten that far on his racecourse debut last September, when showing his tendency to hang left. He should improve on that run, and Karl Burke has won the last two runnings of this. He is getting 7 lbs from the expected favorite, who has a penalty for winning on debut in Dundalk, and that weight difference could swing it toward the Tony Bloom-trained representative. Should be thereabouts at the finish.
15:57 3:57 Cork
Kilbarry Alexy
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Kilbarry Alexy ran well for a long time on their racecourse debut, just running out of steam in the final furlong, finishing 3rd of 14 at Naas just under three weeks ago. The amateur takes a valuable 7 lbs off today, and in this softening ground that could make a winning difference. Can surely make their presence felt and be in the mix come the finish.
15:22 3:22 Cork
Al Kalila
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@7.50
Void
0
Al Kalila has been consistent of late and travelled well for a long time before fading in the run-in last time out at Kelso just under four weeks ago when beaten as 11/10 favourite. Dropping back in trip should suit, and she has dropped a couple of lbs in the weights, so she is primed for a big effort. This Irish raider could go very close for a first victory over fences.
15:00 Brighton v Burnley
Burnley
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Neither side has won in the last ten league games, and this could be a scrappy, tense, tight affair. Burnley, under Scott Parker, play good football without probably getting the results they deserve. But today's fixture against an injury-affected Brighton could be a valuable three points for Premier League survival. The visitors are too big a price given that neither side is flying.
15:00 Wolverhampton v West Ham
Wolverhampton
50 WIN
@2.63
Win
81
Wolverhampton are surely making plans for the Championship next season after gaining only their third point of the season against Manchester United last time out, but West Ham are in equally poor form with no wins in their last five and are in the relegation places themselves. Wolves are not playing poor football to deserve only three points but have been punished for huge defensive frailties. This is a vital three points for the London side, but points could be staying with the hosts for their first win of the season. Nothing to lose for them.
14:40 2:20 Lingfield
Charlies Choice
Daily Racing
With better luck in running, Charlie's Choice could well compensate for last time out a fortnight ago when second to re-opposing Westcombe. The amateur who rode last time takes a valuable 5 lb off, and compensation could be gained. Should be thereabouts given previous recent form. NB
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Thatll Do Moss
Daily Racing
That'll Do Moss was having their first run for over 200 days when fourth of six at Kempton in late November and was fancied to do a lot better as was 11/4 second favourite. Before that, the horse had been ultra-consistent and, with that recent run out of the way, should improve and could be the one to take this for a top NH yard. NAP
14:05 1:45 Lingfield
Spaceage Love Song
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Spaceage Love Song last time out was a bit amiss and was quickly pulled up at Windsor in June. Michael Bell is well experienced to get one back to the track. With Luke Morris taking the ride, this one has an outside squeak for me. Getting 21 lb from the expected favourite is another plus, and if the cheekpieces introduced today work, I could see them bouncing back to form from a very low mark. Each-way selection
12:45 12:45 Sandown
Kotmask
Daily Racing
Kotmask is a course-and-distance winner from two starts here. If the blinkers introduced today tidy up their jumping, he could well bounce back to form. The official rating has been lowered, and he is well worth chancing at a decent price in an open race.
Subtotal56
01 January 2026
20:00 Brentford v Tottenham
Draw
50 WIN
@3.60
Win
130
With visiting manager Thomas Frank returning to familiar territory tonight, it could end with honours even. Neither side is full of confidence at present, and this could be a nervous, tight encounter. Value lies in the draw.
17:30 Crystal Palace v Fulham
Fulham
50 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-50
Quite contrasting fortunes since the reverse fixture just under a month ago, in a 2-1 victory for Crystal Palace. Palace haven't won in the league since, while visitors Fulham haven't lost since then. Palace have lost their way in recent weeks, with European football possibly draining resources a bit too far. Fulham are in decent form and are too big a price to start the new year with three valuable points for possible European qualification next season.
17:30 Liverpool v Leeds
Liverpool
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
Liverpool have returned to form after losing a two-goal lead and letting in a 96th-minute equaliser against tonight's opposition just under a month ago. Wirtz is starting to find his feet, which could be worrying for the visitors. Leeds are unbeaten in their last five matches and will be no pushover, but the hosts should have too much quality and are my selection to take all three points.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
Since Liverpool have regained their winning thread, it hasn't always been plain sailing. Two of their last four matches went over. The reverse fixture was an entertaining 3-3 draw. In Leeds' last ten matches, eight have gone over 2.5 goals, and the other two were draws in which both teams scored. This could be free-flowing, with possibly both teams finding the net before the hosts take all three points.
15:45 3:45 Fairyhouse
Early Dawning
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@1.80
Lose
-50
Early Dawning should improve for their racecourse debut when third here over 250 days ago. Patrick Mullins replaces the amateur today; that should be a tip in itself. Time off the track shouldn't cause any issues given the trainer's experience. Should go very close for top connections.
15:15 3:15 Fairyhouse
Joystick
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Lose
-50
Joystick is an each-way alternative to the short-priced stablemate. Now that the cobwebs are blown away with a 4th of 15 just over a month ago, he surely has the ability to be in the mix here for top connections.
14:59 2:59 Newcastle
Antrim
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.20
Lose
-50
Antrim is bred to be in better races than this and is now on a hat-trick after their last victory just under four weeks ago over today's course and distance. Is surely the one to beat, and a repeat performance from last time out should make them NAP material. NAP
14:35 2:35 Cheltenham
Jingko Blue
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Jingko Blue finished 7th of 17 after 280 days off the track just over a month ago and should be ready for today now that the cobwebs are blown away. Has been overlooked by De Boinville but could be overlooked by a yard that has won two of the last three runnings of this. A viable alternative to the short-priced favourite, who is having their second run after wind surgery and could be vulnerable.
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14:00 2:00 Cheltenham
Riskintheground
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Dan Skeltons Riskinthegroud is a course and distance winner on their only attempt here. Found over 3miles a step too far just over a month ago at Newbury and won on their penultimate start at Newton Abbot on the 18th October over today’s trip. Will be more suited with today’s ground and is sure to be in the mix at the finish given the experience of the trainer.
Subtotal-270
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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