Lurpak11
Like thinking outside the box. Football & Horseracing markets the main. Not a scattered gun approach to betting. Logic and backed up by facts and figures.
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Lurpak11's Tips History
21 October 2025
17:45 Barcelona v Olympiacos
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Barcelona are unbeaten in their four away matches in the league with three wins and one draw. Both matches between these two sides went over 2.5 goals, with Barcelona winning both matches easily. Their Champions League match against PSG also went over, though they lost 2-1 in the final stages. Take the over; goals are aplenty.
Subtotal20
09 October 2025
20:00 Morocco v Bahrain
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Morocco are one of the best teams in Africa, and even the adjustment of this being a friendly should still have more than two goals to score against minnows Bahrain. The African side are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four of them with two going over 2.5 goals. Three of Bahrain's last five games have gone over, including defeats to lowly Istra 1961 and Primorje. With this being a friendly, it will depend on how Morocco take the game, but if they can be professional, then this should be an easy over. Take the over that the hosts have too much class for the opposition.
19:45 Belarus v Denmark
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Group leaders Denmark travel to Belarus, heavily expected to return home with all three points and should have little trouble in doing so. Greece hammered the hosts on match day one 5-1, and the visitors beat Greece 2-0 on match day two. Scotland, who make up the group, took their time in scoring at the hosts, but the Danes have more potent strikers in the in-form Rasmus Højlund, so three goals should be the minimum scored tonight.
19:45 Cyprus v Bosnia Herzegovina
Bosnia Herzegovina
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Visitors Bosnia-Herzegovina won this reverse fixture 2-1 in March and will want to hit the ground running in Cyprus tonight, with group rivals Austria facing minnows San Marino, where three points look certain. Cyprus have not won any of their last five matches, losing three of them, including the match against tonight's opposition. Prior to losing to Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina put six past San Marino away from home, and a similar scoreline wouldn't be a surprise.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Visitors Bosnia-Herzegovina won this reverse fixture 2-1 in March and will want to hit the ground running in Cyprus tonight, with group rivals Austria facing minnows San Marino, where three points look certain. They scored six against San Marino away from home and this group could well come down to goal difference so expect the away side to attack from start to finish. Goals should be the result considering that Cyprus have conceded two goals in four out of their last five games and have scored in three of them. Take the over.
19:45 Czechia v Croatia
Croatia
50 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-50
Croatia, who sit on top of the group due to a largely superior goal difference, have only conceded one goal all campaign, to tonight's rivals Czechia when hammering them 5-1. Tonight's match will more than likely seal automatic qualification for next year's tournament. The hosts were held to a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia recently and will have their work cut out keeping Croatia from winning this. A lively affair should be expected given that both sides have performed well in qualification to date, but the visitors are valued to sneak victory.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
Croatia have scored 17 goals in their last four matches, including 5 against tonight's opposition in the reverse, and will expect to have their shooting boots on again tonight. This is a one-game shootout for automatic qualification for next year's World Cup. The hosts have scored 10 goals themselves in that same time frame, so this should be a lively encounter with possibly both teams finding the back of the net. Take the over that this follows suit to the reverse fixture.
19:45 England v Wales
Wales
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
England only beat lowly Andorra 1-0 and 2-0 in both their qualification campaign. They did look impressive against a defensively set up Serbia, but against Senegal recently, they looked all at sea. Tuchel has rested some expected to be on the flight across the Atlantic next summer. Craig Bellamy's Wales will be right up for this from the first whistle, and they are too big a price given the experimental nature of the England squad.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
England only beat lowly Andorra 1-0 and 2-0 in both their qualification campaigns. They did look impressive against a defensively set up Serbia, but against Senegal recently, they looked all at sea. Tuchel has rested some expected to be on the flight across the Atlantic next summer. Craig Bellamy's Wales will be right up for this from the first whistle, and three of their last five matches have gone under, including a friendly against Canada last time. England could be hindered by an inexperienced, experimental lineup for next summer, so take the chance that this is a low-scoring affair with possibly Wales doing most of the defending.
19:45 Scotland v Greece
Draw
50 WIN
@3.15
Lose
-50
A crucial tie in the group for qualification for next year's World Cup. The hosts have shown that they are battle-ready with their opening goalless draw against Denmark and are unbeaten in their last three since they lost their last competitive match against Greece in the Nations League in March. Greece were brought back down to earth after hammering Belarus 5-1 by getting soundly beaten by the Danes 3-0. This will be a tight and tense affair given what is at stake, and a draw might be the way to go given that the hosts are normally potent in front of goal and Greece are decent defensively. Goals should be at a premium tonight.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.70
Lose
-50
A crucial tie in the group for qualification for next year's World Cup. The hosts have shown that they are battle-ready with their opening goalless draw against Denmark and are unbeaten in their last three since they lost their last competitive match against Greece in the Nations League in March. Greece were brought back down to earth after hammering Belarus 5-1 by getting soundly beaten by the Danes 3-0. This will be a tight and tense affair given what is at stake tonight, and goals should be at a premium. Both of Scotland's group games have gone under 2.5 goals. All of Greece's games have gone over, but under Steve Clarke, Scotland have become hard to break down. Take the under that defenses come out on top.
17:00 Finland v Lithuania
Finland
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
Visitors Lithuania have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing twice against lowly ranked Malta. Hosts Finland are a more mixed bag with two wins, two defeats, and a draw. The draw was the reverse fixture, which ended 2-2 in March. Finland have beaten Poland at home in this group, so are decent when not traveling and should have too much for the visiting Lithuania.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Finland will need to win this to have any chance of overtaking Poland into the playoff spot in Group G tonight. They will therefore take it to Lithuania, who scored two in the defeat by the Netherlands last time out. Two of Finland's other four matches have gone over, winning at home and losing away to Poland. The reverse fixture was an entertaining 2-2 draw, and goals should be expected given what is at stake.
Subtotal-242
08 October 2025
14:00 Ethiopia v Guinea Bissau
Draw
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
The only time these sides met ended in a goalless draw and a point each could again be the outcome. Neither side is in great form and this could be a tight tense affair, given what's at stake. Take the middle ground.
14:00 Mauritius v Cameroon
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
Cameroon put three past today's hosts in the qualification stages for the 2024 World Cup, and today's game could go the same way. Backing the away win is not really worth it at such short odds, but this could be a way to back Cameroon, who should have too much for their much less experienced opposition.
Subtotal-100
07 October 2025
19:45 Scunthorpe v Morecambe
Scunthorpe
50 WIN
@1.35
Win
17
Scunthorpe have won three of the last five matches, only losing to promotion rivals Carlisle. Morecambe have only won one of the last five and sit second bottom of the league. This should be an entertaining game given the fact that the visitors have leaked 16 goals in that timeframe, and four have gone over 2.5 goals. Scunthorpe will want to regain their spot near the top of the league. Three points and over 2.5 goals is the call.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Scunthorpe have won three of the last five matches, only losing to promotion rivals Carlisle. Morecambe have only won one of the last five and sit second bottom of the league. This should be an entertaining game given the fact that the visitors have leaked 16 goals in that timeframe, and four have gone over 2.5 goals. Scunthorpe will want to regain their spot near the top of the league, and three points and over 2.5 goals is the call.
18:00 6:00 Southwell
Graduated
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
Graduated is ultra consistent of late, having finished 3rd in their last five runs. Has got in lightly and is in receipt of weight all round, which could lead to them winning for the 2nd time in their career. Was once rated 73 and is now 10lbs better off and is unchanged from their last run when 3rd at Wolverhampton just over two weeks ago. Hasn’t been starting well, and if breaking on terms, a better display could well be on the cards.
17:28 5:28 Southwell
Polka Blue
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Polka Blue has improved on each run to date, including last time out when finished 4th of 10 at Kempton just under two weeks ago. The step-up in trip to 7f should be well within their reach and could squeeze out further improvement to break their maiden tag at the 3rd attempt. Is well in the mix in an open restricted novice event.
17:20 5:20 Galway
Mullaghgloss
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Win
125
Mullaghgloss was having their first run for nearly 150 days just under two weeks ago and was looking like they would be in the mix to be placed when they fell away in the final stages. They should be better for that run and should put their racecourse experience to good use against the Joseph O’Brien representative and newcomer. With further improvement, they should go close to breaking their maiden tag at the third time of asking, with the amateur taking a valuable 5 lbs off in this soft ground, which could be telling.
16:57 4:57 Southwell
Watercraft
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@17.00
Lose
-50
Watercraft showed their inexperience when finishing 8th of 11 at Leicester four weeks ago on their racecourse debut and was only beaten six lengths by the winner, so it wasn't as bad as the result suggests. It was well fancied that day, being 7/2 2nd favourite, so obviously was showing something at home. With that experience behind them, improvement is likely, and in a race full of unknowns, it is well worth chancing at decent each-way odds in an open maiden.
15:45 3:45 Brighton
Masonbrook Meadow
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Lose
-50
Masonbrook Meadow ran no kind of race in an amateur race at Bath when slowly away just over three weeks ago. Now, with the more experienced Josephine Gordon in the saddle, a better display is expected. Has been busy over hurdles recently since their penultimate start over a year ago when finished 2nd. The softening ground shouldn’t hold any fears, and stamina could be the key. Chance at a big price.
14:45 2:45 Brighton
Fai Fai
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
Fai Fai was once rated in the 70s and is now off an unchanged official rating of 51 from last time out. Including that run when headed on the line just over three weeks ago, they have been placed over today’s course and distance four times. Consistent at this level, and a repeat performance should put them bang in the mix for a deserved success. NAP
Subtotal-88
06 October 2025
16:10 4:10 Tipperary
Cullig
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
Cullig was in decent form before last time out when pulled up and has been given a break since. If that has freshened them up, they could well bounce back to form in an open race. Won one and placed in two other races prior to their last run and worth chancing.
15:58 3:58 Killarney
Forthill
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
Forthill ran a very decent debut run when 5th behind re-opposing Gifted just under four weeks ago. With normal improvement from their initial run, Forthill could well improve past Gifted, while Jessica Harrington's Marizon has had plenty of chances. NAP
Subtotal-100
05 October 2025
17:00 Napoli v Genoa
Napoli
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Napoli's last five games have resulted in four of them going over 2.5 goals, and both these matches last season would have landed. Visitors Genoa have lost three of their last five games and have only 1 point from their away games. Napoli have the firepower in Højhund and De Bruyne to win this and further dent the visitors' woes.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.30
Win
65
Napoli's last five games have resulted in four of them going over 2.5 goals, and both these matches last season would have landed. Visitors Genoa have lost three of their last five games and have only 1 point from their away games. Napoli have the firepower in Højhund and De Bruyne to win and could score at least 3.
16:44 4:44 Killarney
Glitz And Glamour
Daily Racing
Glitz and Glamour won their penultimate start under today's claimer, Calum Hogan, over 17f. He is well worth his 7lb claim as already the recipient of weight all around, which could be crucial given the near 3-mile trip and the softening ground. Was not stopping that day over hurdles, and the step-up in trip could be ideal. Is surely in the mix.
15:53 3:53 Tipperary
Shoot First
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Lose
-50
Shoot First normally runs over a much longer distance but has a squeak given the softening ground will bring stamina into play here. Fell when last seen on 1st February and has a decent record at this track, so could well run a decent race and outrun their odds here. Worth risking at the odds.
15:34 3:34 Killarney
Container Madness
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Container Madness is now back over hurdles. Two falls over fences recently and should revel now back over the smaller obstacles. Conor Smithers is good value for his 7lb claim, and their hurdles runs give something to build on. Marin Brasil is one to get that improvement. Well worth an each-way value interest in an open race.
15:15 Sevilla v Barcelona
Barcelona
50 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-50
Barcelona are unbeaten in their four away matches in the league with three wins and one draw. Both matches between these two sides went over 2.5 goals, with Barcelona winning both matches easily. Their Champions League match against PSG also went over, though they lost 2-1 in the final stages. Their away form suggests Barcelona are acca bet material.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.45
Win
22
Barcelona are unbeaten in their four away matches in the league with three wins and one draw. Both matches between these two sides went over 2.5 goals, with Barcelona winning both matches easily. Their Champions League match against PSG also went over, though they lost 2-1 in the final stages. Take the over; goals are aplenty.
14:48 2:48 Uttoxeter
Auntie Maggie
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Win
25
An open race with not much hot form to go by, so I will take a chance with the outsider of the field, currently Auntie Maggie. She is a front runner who could get an early lead and dictate matters. She is a course and distance winner from two starts, and that was with a 7lb penalty. She is overlooked and overpriced to bounce back.
14:43 2:43 Tipperary
Evening Blossom
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
The Joseph O’Brien yard is going extremely well at present, and Evening Blossom is the selection to improve on that record. The stable has won two of the last five runnings of this and was the beaten favorite last time out when 4th just under two weeks ago. Stamina could be brought into play with the soft conditions and could well bounce back to form.
14:24 2:24 Killarney
Kingdom Calling
Daily Racing
Kingdom Calling was starting to mount a challenge when they fell two out just over a week ago after over 100 days off the track. The trainer has won two of the last five runnings of this and, granted a clear round, should go very close. It is surely in the mix to gain compensation for last time out. NAP
14:15 2:15 Uttoxeter
Granpa Ger
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 15.00 takenBOG
@17.00
Win
55
Consistent at their level, Grandpa Ger is the selection to be boosted by the change of yard and the break since last ran. Was 2nd of 11 at Tramore last time out, and a similar display today could see them be thereabouts in an open race.
14:00 Aston Villa v Burnley
Burnley
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Burnley were in the match for a long period even though the Manchester City result suggests otherwise. They are too big a price to get the better of Aston Villa, who will have traveled back from Holland late and might not have prepared much for this. Scott Parker has got the newly promoted side playing very well.
14:00 Everton v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
50 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-50
Unbeaten this season, Crystal Palace are decent value to get the better of a revitalized Everton side under David Moyes in their new stadium. The hosts will be without Dewsbury-Hall, who has played well this season. In Mateta and Sarr, the visitors have more than enough guile to get all three points.
14:00 Newcastle v Nottm Forest
Newcastle
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
Nottingham Forest are a completely different side under Ange, and Newcastle will be on a high after their Champions League victory in Belgium last midweek. Former Forest midfielder Elanga will cause his old teammates major problems, and striker Woltemade has started his Newcastle career off very well. The hosts should have far too much, and this should be a home banker.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
Both the matches between these two sides went over last season, and Forest under Ange are nowhere near as solid defensively as last season. Four of the last five matches for the hosts have gone over, and they have an in-form striker. This should have plenty of attacking encounters and should be an easy over.
13:49 1:49 Killarney
Crystabel
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@7.00
Void
0
Crystabel had run a decent race when their effort was starting to fade, and they fell on debut for the Ryan stable just six weeks ago here over a furlong shorter than today's. They should have the lead to themselves, and if settling better alongside a clear round, they could very well dictate things from start to finish. Well worth considering.
13:40 1:40 Uttoxeter
Race To Base
Daily Racing
Race to Base should have been well-schooled for this hurdles debut, and the ground shouldn’t be an issue after running well in a bumper last time out. Has performed well and won after a similar break to today's, and given the experience of the trainer, is well in the mix to make a winning jumps debut.
13:33 1:33 Tipperary
Acclamatic
Daily Racing
The Joseph O’Brien yard is going extremely well at present, and Acclamatic can add to that by breaking their maiden tag at the third time of asking. Cheekpieces are introduced, which should help focus matters. Acclamatic has been placed third in both starts to date, and with the experience, should put that to decent use to get home in front.
Subtotal-324
04 October 2025
17:45 5:45 Newcastle
Bruce Banner
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Bruce Banner is a course and distance winner from only two lbs higher than today's official rating of 60. Last time out, after over 100 days off the track, he finished last of 5 over 16f. Now back down in trip and with those cobwebs blown away, he could well bounce back and is too big a price in an open race to ignore.
17:45 Hearts v Hibernian
Hearts
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Current league leaders Hearts will be full of confidence for this Edinburgh derby, unbeaten this season. Tony Bloom's financial injection has worked well, and they should be too strong for their rivals, Hibs.
17:30 Chelsea v Liverpool
Liverpool
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Champions Liverpool have lost their last two matches, but it's been a while since they lost their last three matches and should get back to winning ways. Chelsea are without Palmer, who will be a big miss, and an away win with Isak getting up to speed could be the last thing an inexperienced defense could want.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
In the last four matches for both sides, this bet would have landed four times for each side. So, goals are expected given their previous form. Visitors Liverpool will want to get back to winning ways, and goals could be the answer against an inexperienced Chelsea defence.
16:50 4:50 Gowran Park
Ballybawn Belter
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Win
35
Ballybawn Belter fell when last seen at Fairyhouse on 22nd April and has had a break since. If freshened up and schooled well for that, could well go close at a price. Has the potential to go well over fences for top connections, and in an open race, is worth chancing first time out this season.
16:30 4:30 Redcar
Eeetee
Daily Racing
25 EW
@51.00
Lose
-50
Eeetee is a dual course and distance winner who has lost his way since winning here on 20th July and is only a pound higher than that last official rating. Softening ground shouldn't cause any issues, and the ground could bring stamina into play and be prominent to the leaders to bounce back to winning ways, pouncing late.
16:15 4:15 Gowran Park
Blood Destiny
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
Trainer Willie Mullins has won four out of the last five runnings of this, and his representative Blood Destiny could be the one they all have to beat here. Was beaten favorite when 2nd last time out two months ago and could dictate things from the front. Is the one to beat for me and could well start to fulfill their potential.
16:10 4:10 Ascot
Fantasy Master
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Fantasy Believer is receiving weight from all the field today, which could be critical in this softening ground. The ground will hold no fears for the Darryl Holland-trained gelding, who ran two days ago at Nottingham. If seen out again, he could bounce back.
15:35 3:35 Ascot
Purosangue
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Purosangue was beaten favourite when finishing 4th at the Ayr Gold Cup two weeks ago off an official rating of 98 and now can race off 96 today. Will handle the soft ground and trainer is in decent form. Well worth considering in an open race at double digit prices.
15:00 Arsenal v West Ham
West Ham
50 WIN
@16.00
Lose
-50
Espírito Santo had Nottingham Forest playing very decent football and can get West Ham to do the same. They will be right up for this London Derby, and Arsenal were in Champions League action in midweek. They are not firing on all cylinders at present. This could be nervy the later it takes for them to break through, and the Hammers are far too big a price.
15:00 Man Utd v Sunderland
Sunderland
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Manchester United are not great at present and cannot be backed with any confidence this season. Newly promoted Sunderland have surprised many this season and should put it up to the hosts. A huge price considering the different form of the sides.
14:52 2:52 Curragh
I Bid You Ajou
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
I bet you Ajou unseated their rider last time out, but before that, has been ultra-consistent and has won three times over this distance. Ajou is one of the most in-form in the field. The ground shouldn't be an issue and is surely going to be thereabouts at the finish as long as the rider stays on board.
14:40 2:40 Newmarket
Atsila
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@19.00
Lose
-50
Irish raider Atsila could well spring a surprise of sorts in this. Three weeks ago, ran a cracking race in a Group One race, only beaten a length. Very consistent in their lightly raced career at high levels. Should be running on when others have had enough. Got an each-way squeak at least. NAP
14:25 2:25 Ascot
Hamish
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.63
Lose
-50
Hamish is a dual winner of this race who could well get the fast pace they want, as there are many front runners or prominent runners. Unbeaten this season so far and has massive experience at this grade, so is the one they all have to beat. Stays well and enjoys the softening ground, so well worth considering.
13:50 1:50 Ascot
Candy
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Candy is coming here after winning at Ayr two weeks ago and has an excellent record on this softening ground. With not many front runners, Candy could well dictate things from the front and could take some stopping.
12:30 Leeds v Tottenham
Tottenham
50 WIN
@2.70
Win
85
Tottenham are a different animal under Thomas Frank, and no team has picked up more points than them away from home this season with 7. They are unbeaten in all competitions in the last five games and have won the last four meetings between these two sides. Newly promoted Leeds are making a very decent effort of staying up this season, but I expect the three points to be going back to North London this lunchtime.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Hosts Leeds have had two games in their last five that have gone over 2.5 goals, and Tottenham have had three in that same period. Both teams know how to attack and, at the same time, are leaking goals in defense. This could be a lively encounter, and I can see this having at least 3 goals.
Micky van de Ven
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@29.00
Lose
-50
Defender Van de Ven has popped up with several goals this season. In this match, I consider there to be lots of set pieces for the away side. Therefore, with the defenders going forward at every opportunity and brilliant in the air, he could well head Tottenham into the lead. A value selection ahead of this lunchtime kickoff.
12:30 Newport County v Swindon
Swindon
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
Swindon have won four out of their last five matches and have picked up 9 points away from home this season. Such a contrast to home side Newport County, who have picked up only 1 point at home this season and lost four out of their last five games. This has all the markers for an away win, and anything else could be a coupon buster for punters.
12:30 Sheff Wed v Coventry
Coventry
50 WIN
@1.60
Win
30
Second in the table, Coventry are the selection to add more woes to Sheffield Wednesday, who have more problems than their league position. The away side are unbeaten in their last five away games, winning their last two. They are in brilliant scoring form and should have far too much for the hosts.
Subtotal-340
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
