Lurpak11
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Lurpak11's Tips History
06 February 2026
18:15 6:15 Dundalk
Velvet Skies
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+500
Lose
-50
Velvet Skies ran a decent race when 2nd of 14 over today's course and distance on their penultimate start. A week ago, they finished 3rd again here over a mile, going down by just over a length. Chris Hayes is a very interesting jockey booking and is consistent. No reason that they shouldn't run another decent race. With their record of five placed efforts from eight starts over today's course and distance, they should surely be thereabouts at the finish and are well worth considering given their current form and quick reappearance. NAP
18:00 6:00 Newcastle
Harb
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@+800
Lose
-50
Harb ran a decent race when third of 11 over today's course and distance, just beaten by just over a length. Could have done too much with other front runners that day. If learning to settle just behind the pace, he could bounce late to take this. Luke Morris continues to ride, which is a positive, and he is 1 lb below his last winning mark. Pace is expected to be fast, so this should suit and shows that they are effective on the all-weather surface. NB
Subtotal-100
05 February 2026
20:10 France v Ireland
Ireland
To Win
50 WIN
@+450
Lose
-50
The Irish do not know when they are beaten or underdogs and will relish the fight tonight in the Six Nations opener under the lights in the French capital. Yes, the hosts deserve to be favourites after winning the Six Nations last year, but with this being the first match in this year's tournament, teams can be caught cold. Ireland under Farrell are a solid unit, and with Jamison Gibson-Park they have a scrum-half to rival the French Antoine Dupont. The visitors are overpriced for me, considering that they nearly won the Six Nations last year and they normally put up a decent performance against the French even in defeat. This one should be in the balance in the final ten minutes, which suggests the Irish are the value call.
Ireland 13.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
The first game of the Six Nations could be tight and tense, with two of the principals for glory pitting themselves against each other under the Paris lights. Ireland are no mugs, and getting virtually a two-try head start of 13.5 points could be too far for the French to cover. Only once in the last ten years would that handicap have been covered by the French, and Ireland have won five of those ten matches, two of them on foreign soil. This game could be won by the odd penalty kick, and I see Ireland holding on at the very least to their 13.5 lead on the handicap. History suggests that this is a close game. Take the Irish with a head start.
Under 48.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
The first game of the Six Nations could be tight and tense, with two of the principals for glory pitting themselves against each other under the Paris lights. This could be a technical, tactical game that I can see coming down to the odd spot kick. Ireland may be rebuilding but are no mugs, and the hosts will be under pressure to get off to a fast start. If that doesn’t happen, then Ireland could start to turn the tide against a restless crowd. Take the under; both defenses could come out on top. Take the under.
19:30 7:30 Southwell
Rainwater
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+550
Lose
-50
Rainwater has been on the premises. Their last two starts saw them finish 3rd on the penultimate start over a mile, then drop down a furlong to finish 2nd while staying on strongly. They need a strong pace over today's trip and could be a danger to all if they get it. They have held their rating since their last victory last June while being consistent. There is no reason to believe another big run is not on the cards, and they could finally get their head back in front with several front-runners to force the pace. David Nolan taking over from an amateur is another plus. NAP
17:30 5:30 Southwell
Shabab Al Ahli
Daily Racing
Shabab Al Ahli cost 500,000 gns as a yearling and, being by Frankel, is expected to be decent. Asia Force has racecourse experience and is the Godolphin representative, but I hope the Charlie Appleby runner will improve past the Karl Burke-marked rival. Related to decent performers, if anything similar to them talent-wise should take this. Should be well prepped for their racecourse debut, and if going by previous newcomers for the yard, they all seem to know their job. Could be the one they all have to beat.
15:50 3:50 Southwell
Starshot
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@+1400
Lose
-50
The Lawrence Mullaney yard won this last year, and I will take a chance that their representative Sharshot goes close to doubling up. Having their first run of the season today, he ended last year with a decent 3rd of 8 at Newcastle, running on at the finish, so the step up in trip to a mile should suit. Will be held up to bounce late and will be staying on while others are going backwards. Has been consistent of late without winning, and another decent run is surely on the cards. NB
15:35 3:35 Doncaster
William Of York
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+850
Lose
-50
William of York won off an official rating of 118 in April 2024 and now runs off 8 lbs lower. Has more letters and numbers in their form figures in recent times, but sparks of improvement are there after finishing 6th of 9 at Wetherby on Boxing Day when they got round but really never threatened. Has been dropped 4 lbs after that run, and if freshened up for the break could well bounce back to form. Ground and trip no issues, and a big run to be in the mix at the finish wouldn't be a total shock.
15:20 3:20 Lingfield
Officer Of State
Daily Racing
Gary Moore won this last year and can hopefully repeat the feat with Officer of State. Very consistent this season with two wins, including last time out at Windsor just under three weeks ago. Slightly down in trip shouldn't hold any concerns and is the most informed horse in this small field. The testing ground could make this a bit of a stamina test which, as one who has won over further, shouldn't be an issue either. Major chance of going three from four today.
15:10 3:10 Huntingdon
Fresh Perspective
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+1600
Lose
-50
Fresh Perspective has won two of their last three outings, finishing 3rd of 5 at Sandown in a Listed race, and has been given a break since. A tongue strap is introduced, which should hopefully settle the son of New Approach. He was staying on at Sandown but was outsprinted in the final stages. The extra couple of furlongs could see him in a better light. A big run wouldn't surprise. Only six in the field tempers an each-way punt, so a chance is that they come home in front.
14:45 2:45 Lingfield
Largy Go
Daily Racing
Largy Go won their point-to-point well at Loughbrickland under Stephen Connor just over 10 months ago and has since been snapped up by JP McManus for a not-so-shoddy £305k. Should have been prepped well for their hurdling and NH debut, and it’s not the deepest of races. Has the potential to be decent and should be taking this for the O'Neill son-and-father partnership. Should start to pay back some of that fee today.
14:17 2:17 Thurles
Maxfort
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1800
Lose
-50
Maxfort made a decent, steady hurdling debut, just beaten by over 4 lengths to the Willie Mullins hotpot The Reverend at Cork just over a month ago. Held up and called for their effort, he just lost 2nd on the run-in. With improvement likely from that experience, to me he is well overpriced. Could well run into another place if repeating that performance, and if the principals falter could be the one to pick up the pieces. Worth chancing at the price.
14:00 2:00 Huntingdon
Paggane
Daily Racing
Paggane has been ultra-consistent this season with two wins, a 2nd on their penultimate run, and finished 3rd of 5 last time out, jumping right and only getting going when the race was more or less over. Harry Cobden, who is riding brilliantly at present, is back on board and is a major plus. Paggane has a penalty to overcome but is the one they all have to beat and could take some stopping. She should get back to winning ways.
13:50 1:50 Doncaster
Ribble River
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+5000
Lose
-50
With 8 or more runners expected to turn up, something has to finish 3rd if the two market principals run to their current rating. With that in mind, I will take a chance on the NH debutant Ribble River. Won three times on the level, rated 70 and consistent enough to make a decent start if taking to hurdling. In a race with lots of unknowns or lightly raced types there could be any amount of improvement with many, but not many of these would have been rated higher on the flat, so a decent debut for Lizzie Quinlan is a risk worth taking at high rewarding odds.
13:42 1:42 Thurles
Tsavo Park
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1800
Lose
-50
In a very open handicap chase, I will take a chance that the J. J. Hanlon-trained Tsavo Park can run well and be in the placings at the very least. Three runs ago he ran over half a mile longer than today's trip here when third of six. He has since had two runs over around 2 miles, which probably was too sharp a distance. This 2-mile-2-furlong trip in soft ground could be perfect, as he knows they act on the course with previous form and is consistent enough to be thereabouts at the finish if he reacts well to fences for the first time.
13:15 1:15 Doncaster
Mollys Lad
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+650
Lose
-50
Molly's Lad has potential on their hurdling debut after two decent bumper runs. Finished 2nd on debut and in a listed race last time out, given too much to do in the final stages and finishing a never-nearer 5th. Is getting 7??"10 lbs off the two market principals, which could be telling in this soft ground. Further improvement is highly likely, and if taking to hurdles can be in the mix to come out in front.
Subtotal-669
04 February 2026
18:30 6:30 Newcastle
Hayynah
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@-136
Lose
-50
Hayynah has been hitting the crossbar with three 2nd-place finishes to her name and is primed to go one better at the fifth time of asking. She has a handicap mark of 83, which will need one of the newcomers to be decent to take this. She sets the standard and is the one to beat. She was a beaten favourite last time out and the cheekpieces introduced should make the difference. She has raced at higher levels than this, and the drop in grade should be telling.
15:58 3:58 Punchestown
Lucky Viv
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@+1100
Lose
-50
Even though coming into this race out of form, this could have been the aim all along for Lucky Viv. I will take the chance that the daughter of Yeats goes close to winning this for the second year in a row. Handling the track and soft ground won't be an issue. The amateur who won on them last time retains the ride and claims a valuable 3 lbs. Cheekpieces introduced should hopefully help with settling matters. Worth chancing at a decent price in an open handicap that they could return to form. NB
15:10 3:10 Kempton
Follow Your Heart
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+1000
Lose
-50
Follow Your Heart bumped into a rival on their last start at Wolverhampton just over four weeks ago and went down only a couple of lengths to finish 4th of 8. Winner of that race, Echalar, reopposes today, but the swing in the weights could turn the tables. Was favourite for that race last time out and, with better luck in running, could well be compensated here. NAP
14:58 2:58 Ludlow
Tax For Max
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2000
Lose
-50
Tax For Max didn't jump well when push came to shove at Windsor just over a month ago, finishing 5th of 7 to reopposing rival Toothless. Is a lot better off in weights with that rival now and should turn the tables. Today is the second run after wind surgery, so after those cobwebs were blown away, he should run a better race. The fact that JJ Slevin has popped over the Irish Sea for the double green owners suggests better is expected. If jumping better, then the current odds are far too big. Worth chancing in an open handicap chase to run into a place at least.
14:48 2:48 Punchestown
Jacko Star
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+1000
Lose
-50
Jacko Star is the pick of the two JP McManus runners here for Mark Walsh. The step up half a mile should suit the son of Yeats and bring out his stamina. A hood has been introduced, which should hopefully settle him and help him jump better. That was his downfall last time out when he finished 13th of 18 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He is lightly raced with this only his fifth start and could be overpriced or overlooked in an open race. Well worth chancing that the extra couple of furlongs will see him go close to breaking his maiden tag.
14:00 2:00 Kempton
James McHenry
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2200
Lose
-50
To say James McHenry has had their issues in training for Ed Bethell is an understatement, but the fact that an experienced trainer is returning to the track so soon after finishing last of nine at Newcastle just under three weeks ago suggests that there is a better run somewhere. He was off the track for over 270 days before that last run, and the penultimate run was nearly 200 days before that. There is definitely potential there, as the trainer was quoted as aiming him at races at the Ebor meeting last year and beyond. Is overpriced if things finally click and worth chancing in an open race where most have chances.
13:38 1:38 Punchestown
Mino Des Mottes
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+450
Lose
-50
Mino Des Mottes had winning form in France before moving to the Willie Mullins yard. Although he heads the market as the favourite, the Gigginstown-owned gelding could be the one to take this. He is receiving 12 lb from both market rivals, which could be telling in this softening ground. He has run two decent races over hurdles since joining the yard and could well continue to improve to take this. He was well fancied on his stable debut on New Year's Eve after a 173-day break, so better should be expected today with that experience behind him.
Subtotal-350
03 February 2026
20:00 Arsenal v Chelsea
Chelsea
50 WIN
@+350
Lose
-50
Arteta's Arsenal side are six points clear in the Premier League with 14 games to go and could go into this match as one they would rather not have or full throttle. Changes could be made for the home side, while Chelsea come into this hunting for a trophy that could save their season. The first leg was a lively affair, and this one, I believe, will follow suit with squad players for the hosts given Chelsea's hopes. They are unbeaten in their last five competitions and full of confidence. Take the value in the away win.
20:00 St Mirren v Hearts
Hearts
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Hearts will be putting all their efforts into this, as it would put them nine points ahead of the Glasgow pair. St Mirren are a dogged team who battle for everything, and this will be far from an easy away victory. Hearts are doing just enough to keep them away from the chasing pack, and this could be another valuable three points. Hearts won the reverse game 2-0 in January, and a similar scoreline could be on the cards.
15:35 3:35 Carlisle
Medieval Gold
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+400
Lose
-50
Medieval Gold won readily last time out over today's course and distance, beating re-opposing rival That One. Was getting 5 lbs that day but now given that rival a lb. The way they won on soft ground shouldn't see that stop them. Is making their debut for the Neville yard and ex-champion jockey Brian Hughes retains the partnership. Could have a lot more improvement in them now they have got a winning thread. NAP
14:55 2:55 Fairyhouse
Moorish Castle
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2500
Lose
-50
In a more open handicap than the market suggests, I will take a chance that the maiden Moorish Castle can keep on improving on their fifth start to run into a place at least. Just outside the places in their last two starts, and seems to be possibly better over further than today's trip of 2m 4f. The softening ground could bring stamina into play and they could be staying on at the finish with the claimer taking a valuable 5 lbs off. Definitely has a win in them somewhere and worth chancing that it's today.
14:00 2:00 Carlisle
Scarlet Jet
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+1600
Lose
-50
This is a very open four-runner race in which all have chances of sorts. Therefore I will take a risk with the N. Alexander-trained Scarlet Jet. A winner over hurdles at this distance on similar ground two starts ago. Chase debut today. Last time out the horse was upped in class and it told, finishing last of eight. Back down in class could see them in a better light. With one of the market principals falling last time out and the other finishing fourth, a risk is worth taking at a decent, rewarding price.
13:15 1:15 Fairyhouse
Alliteration
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+500
Lose
-50
Alliteration faced an uphill battle to get the better of Bambino Fever last time out when finishing 3rd on hurdling debut after winning a Galway bumper. Nothing of that class visible to the eye at least here, so should be on the premises come the finish if repeating that effort. Testing conditions should cause no issues, as it ran well in similar ground before. Getting back to winning ways wouldn't be the biggest surprise.
Subtotal-300
02 February 2026
16:40 4:40 Leopardstown
Its Only A Game
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+332
Lose
-50
It's Only a Game justified favouritism on their second start to win on heavy ground just over two months ago at Punchestown. The tongue strap that was introduced last time is retained. The second that day has won impressively at Down Royal on Boxing Day. With further improvement likely and proven on testing ground, it should go very close to winning again before the festival next month. NAP
Subtotal-50
01 February 2026
15:20 3:20 Leopardstown
Brighterdaysahead
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+275
Win
137
A very decent Irish Champion Hurdle is hopefully going to the Gordon Elliott-trained Brighter Days Ahead, who in the December Hurdle went down by just a length to Lossiemouth, who re-opposes today. That was the mare's first run for 240 days and she should be sharper for that run. She will surely go very close to turning the tables on the Willie Mullins favourite. Softening ground will hold no fears and could be ridden accordingly. NAP
14:00 Aston Villa v Brentford
Aston Villa
50 WIN
@+125
Lose
-50
Villa are the selection to keep the pressure on leaders Arsenal, who have only been beaten once, against Everton in recent weeks. Brentford have stuttered recently but are a decent football side under Keith Andrews. Villa have a few injuries to deal with, but momentum is with them. Could be a tight affair with the home side gaining three valuable points.
14:00 Man Utd v Fulham
Fulham
50 WIN
@+450
Lose
-50
Manchester United's victories against City and Arsenal could have given them a false superiority which the layers could have overreacted to. This makes visitors Fulham overpriced in my eyes. They have only one defeat in their last ten matches. With United now favourites, they may have to force the game, which could play into the London side's hands. In Harry Wilson they have a very decent attacker. Value in the away win to take away all the recent hype over Carrick's appointment.
12:40 12:40 Leopardstown
Adrienne
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+900
Lose
-50
In an open mares' handicap I will take a chance with the Ted Walsh-trained Adrienne, who is lightly raced with only four starts. She will enjoy the testing conditions, having acted on them twice. She is lightly weighted compared to market rivals, and this could be a decent stepping stone to a place in Friday's Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham next month. She has course form when second on Boxing Day, and a similar display could see her go very close.
Subtotal-13
10 January 2026
15:21 3:17 Kempton
Beat The Bat
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+900
Lose
-50
Beat the Bat is back over familiar ground over hurdles after one run over fences when 3rd of 4 just over a month ago at Exeter. That was their first run for over 200 days and should strip fitter for that. Has experience in these big hurdle races, having run a cracking race when 4th in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham Festival last year. Could be in the mix come the finish with a similar display. NAP
Subtotal-50
07 January 2026
20:15 Burnley v Man Utd
Burnley
50 WIN
@+459
Lose
-50
Burnley are struggling in the Premier League this season with only three wins from 20 matches. Hosts United are three points off Champions League places, so which team sacked their manager this week? Burnley play decent football under Scott Parker but are just getting punished for everything. It's difficult to judge how United will play, and whether confidence is high or low. With that doubt, United cannot be backed with any confidence. They have only won one of their last five, 1-0 against Newcastle. Burnley are value to make matters worse for United, if that were possible.
20:15 Newcastle v Leeds
Draw
50 WIN
@+300
Lose
-50
Leeds have drawn their last three matches against Sunderland, Liverpool and United. They will fancy their chances of doing at least the same against a Newcastle side that have won their last two against teams not in the best of form. They got beaten by United and drew 2-2 against Chelsea. Not the most consistent of hosts. The visitors will come ready to battle and could take a point back to Leeds.
19:45 Lazio v Fiorentina
Fiorentina
50 WIN
@+220
Lose
-50
Visitors Fiorentina have two wins from their last five matches in a fight for Serie A survival. They have failed to win any of their nine away matches, with four draws. So they are in better form to break their away duck in the capital against Lazio, whose home form isn’t out of this world either. Lazio have only one win in their last five, against Parma, narrowly 1-0. This might not be pretty, but the visitors to nick all three points is the value call for me.
19:30 Bournemouth v Tottenham
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have been in some high-scoring affairs recently, with a 4-4 draw against Manchester United and 2-2 against Chelsea. They possibly deserved better against league leaders Arsenal last weekend. Thomas Frank's visitors have only one win in their last five matches, only scoring two goals in the process. I believe that the hosts are value to take advantage of Spurs' frailty in front of goal and defensively. The hosts have scored 11 goals that have resulted in only three points from 15, and compensation could be coming tonight.
19:30 Brentford v Sunderland
Sunderland
Sunderland have drawn their last four matches and are unbeaten in five, which included games against City, Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and Leeds. Given that form, they are too big a price against a Brentford side who sometimes don't promise to kick on when expected. They are in very decent form recently with big wins against Everton and Bournemouth. In the visitors, they are stubborn in defence (just ask Pep) and could nick this. Too big a price to ignore, and the trip to London should be worth it.
19:30 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Palace are possibly finding it tough to balance European football and holding their form in the Premier League, as they are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Villa, if they are to be serious about their title credentials, should be taking all three points tonight. With an in-form Ollie Watkins spearheading an attacking Villa side, they should have too much in the end for the hosts, who will not go down without a fight.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
Palace won the reverse fixture 3-0 when they were in much better form than recently. The hosts' last eight matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in them. Villa are entertaining, and if they want to put maximum pressure on Arsenal tomorrow against Liverpool they will need to be open and attacking. That could leave chances for Palace to at least get a consolation goal.
19:30 Everton v Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton
50 WIN
@+379
Lose
-50
Both sides had very different match days last weekend, with hosts Everton going down 4-2 to Brentford and Wolves getting their first win of their struggling season against fellow relegation-threatened West Ham, 3-0. Wolves have nothing to lose, as they are more or less already doomed to the Championship, so could be dangerous opposition now they have got a win finally under their belt. Everton have the same old problem: being unable to score, with only four goals in their last five matches. Wolves are too big a price given that Everton will be defensively cautious after that big defeat.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
The reverse fixture resulted in a narrow 3-2 victory for tonight's hosts, and a free-flowing match could again be on the cards. Everton conceded four at the weekend, while Wolves won their first match of the selection, scoring three. Take the odds against both sides defending by attacking, and that this could be any scoreline given the fact that the hosts have nothing to lose in going forward.
19:30 Fulham v Chelsea
Fulham
Another Chelsea manager goes, which does not bode well for their short trip across West London to Fulham. In Harry Wilson, the hosts have one of the in-form attackers in the league at present. Chelsea will be wondering what is happening behind the scenes. Confidence cannot be high considering what is going on, and they cannot be backed with any confidence. Silva's Fulham are a solid unit, which can't be said for their visitors. Take the home win; that will show exactly what a tough challenge the new gaffer will be in for.
19:30 Man City v Brighton
Brighton
50 WIN
@+525
Lose
-50
Hosts Manchester City have defensive problems all over the place, with a recall of one of their youth players from Watford recently. They have failed to win their last two matches. Brighton have an attacking and solid setup to test a top team at full strength, never mind one full of holes. I'm not convinced by their Italian keeper either; he will be tested tonight. City could end up winning this easily, but only loyal punters are risking City at 2s on. Value is with the visitors, making Pep's week worse.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-238
Lose
-50
Brighton won this reverse fixture 2-1 last year, and a similar scoreline cannot be ruled out given how patched up the host's defence will be. Brighton are a solid outfit who will surely press from the first whistle at their hosts' inexperienced back four. An early goal, and this could be a very entertaining encounter.
17:30 Bologna v Atalanta
Draw
50 WIN
@+229
Lose
-50
Bologna are going through a rough patch form-wise with no win in their last five competitive games but still sit 7th in Serie A. Their hosts Atalanta are in much better form, with four wins in their last five matches, only going down by the only goal against Inter Milan. This could be a tight affair given the possible momentum for European football next season, so an entertaining draw should be on the cards.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Given that I expect this to be a tighter affair than recent form suggests, I can see this going under 2.5 goals with defence getting the better of both attacks. Bologna will want to stem the tide of losing matches and have more than enough to hold out against an attacking Atalanta side, who have good form but could be frustrated tonight by the hosts.
17:30 Napoli v Verona
Napoli
50 WIN
@-277
Lose
-50
Challenging. Napoli are strong favourites to beat relegation??'threatened Hellas Verona and should justify that by taking three valuable points this evening. The hosts have won their last four matches in all competitions since a narrow 1-0 defeat to Udinese. The visitors have lost their last two games by the same 3-0 scoreline, and a trip to Naples, I’m sure, is the last thing they want. This should be an easy win for the hosts if they are professional, which, given the manager, they should be.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@+110
Win
55
The last five games by the hosts have resulted in over 2.5 goals, and the visitors have had none go over 2.5 goals in a similar period. Hellas Verona have let in three in their last two games, and Napoli will be licking their lips with attacking options galore. Take the over.
Subtotal-395
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