AdamCox13579
10% Luck, 20% Skill, 15% Concentrated Power Of Will, 5% Pleasure and 50% Pain.
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AdamCox13579's Tips History
02 November 2024
23:45 Race 11 Del Mar
Porta Fortuna
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
There doesn't appear to be an abundance of pace on here, with Goliad (good enough?) and Carl Spackler (drawn wide) the obvious ones to go forward. As such, it could pay to be handy. That is exactly where I'd expect Porta Fortuna to be, based on her runs this season, and she has previous BC experience, having finished 2nd in the Fillies Juvenile Turf last year. I do like More Than Ready too. He could be one finishing better than most, but I'm just not sure he'll get the pace and trip he needs.
23:05 Race 10 Del Mar
Remake
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
A lot of pace in the race, and several of the US runners will be massively disadvantaged if they can't get to the front. But Remake is very solid in the respect that he has a come-from-behind style, and his win over Skelly in Saudi Arabia suggests that he doesn't have a huge amount to find with the best of them.
22:25 Race 9 Del Mar
War Like Goddess
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-50
Cinderella's Dream has done little wrong but I don't think her form is that strong. Content probably is the form pick but she's been kept busy and her last 2 runs were poor (albeit on softer ground than ideal). War Like Goddess has the perfect draw in stall 4, she was only narrowly denied in this race in 2021 and her 3rd and 7th in the BC Turf the last 2 years are fair efforts. She has been given some questionable rides this season but shapes as though she has retained all her ability, the 1m3f trip is ideal and I can't see her out of the frame here.
21:41 Race 8 Del Mar
Forever Young
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Lose
-2
Forever Young is unfortunate not to be unbeaten, given his only defeat came in a three-way photo where he was rather the meat in a Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone sandwich. His tendency to start a shade slowly is a major concern, especially drawn in stall 1, but there is almost guaranteed to be a decent pace on, and he is at least versatile tactically. City Of Troy may be good enough, but I haven't been blown away by him this season, and from stall 3, he will almost certainly get behind and face kickback (his Southwell gallop and light on-track workouts haven't tested him in this regard). Fierceness bombed as favorite in the Derby, but his last two wins have confirmed that form all wrong, and he was very impressive in the Juvenile last year.
21:01 Race 7 Del Mar
Emily Upjohn
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-50
Emily Upjohn had looked a shadow of her former self for much of this season, but her latest 3rd in the Vermeille behind Bluestocking and Aventure has been franked by those two filling the same positions in the Arc. She has always seemed the type to relish a BC race. The usual strong pace should allow her to travel into the race nicely, coupled with faster conditions and a reduced emphasis on stamina. Frankie being back on board may be a positive too, given she has a 4 from 7 strike-rate with him aboard (including both her G1 wins) and is 1 from 8 with Havlin (1-0)/Shoemark (0-6)/Buick (0-1).
20:21 Race 6 Del Mar
Candied
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Thorpedo Anna is the best horse in this race in my book. She lost nothing in a narrow defeat to Fierceness on her penultimate start, but she's had a tough season. Much like Raging Sea, her latest start was also her worst (both won, just not in the manner of a 1/10f). Candied was no match for Thorpedo Anna when they met in the American Oaks at Saratoga, but she's had a break since. Her prep run was only okay behind Idiomatic, but she peaked for the Breeders Cup last season (close up 3rd behind Just F Y I), and she has first-time blinkers on today.
19:41 Race 5 Del Mar
Star Of Mystery
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Win
13
Cogburn has just been a different class to his rivals in a trio of runs this season, and he deserves to be a short-price favorite. But there should be good pace pressure here with Ag Bullet and Bradsell likely to go forward too. That could set it up nicely for a closer. Arzak makes some appeal as he'll likely be flying home and is better than his bare form, but I like Star of Mystery most. The selection was unlucky not to win last time, having to wait for room before flashing home. Her previous win was pretty impressive, and her 3rd to Cogburn on American debut can be upgraded, as she was badly cut up in her run about 2f from home (wouldn't have won but a much closer 2nd). As a 3yo with just a dozen starts to her name, she may still be open to improvement.
19:00 Race 4 Del Mar
Vahva
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.00
Lose
-50
Ways And Means has looked good since cutting back from the Kentucky Oaks and she has to improve on her bare form to date against this field. Vahva came up short against Society and Scylla last time out at Saratoga but she was giving weight to both her rivals that day and the leader (Society) appeared to get the run of the race. Prior to that Vahva had produced a pair of impressive efforts in G1 and G3 company at Churchill Downs beating a very solid yardstick in Alva Starr (unbeaten in 7 but for two 2nd behind Vahva) and she had Society in behind her the previous day.
00:25 Race 1 Del Mar
Noble Confessor
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
I think the Europeans are all closely matched, and I don't fancy any of them strongly enough for win purposes. In truth, it's a pair of 25/1 shots that interest me most. Dream On finished 3rd behind New Century & Al Qudra last time out at Woodbine, but given the 1-2-4 were 3 of the last 4 throughout and the pace was strong, I think you can upgrade Dream On's chances from stall 2. Noble Confessor is the selection, though. He made his first two starts on dirt, and his debut 3rd behind Chancer McPatrick is fair, but he looked a better horse when chasing home Zulu Kingdom on turf debut, and I think he was unlucky not to win. Having met traffic, he was very strong at the line and can reverse form with that rival who is 1/3 of the price
Subtotal-339
01 November 2024
23:45 Race 9 Del Mar
East Avenue
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
You never know how good a lot of these American 2yos are until they are tested, especially with on-speed runners like East Avenue. Jonathan's Way will likely push him on the speed, with the 3-3 Chancer McPatrick almost certain to relish the task of reeling the leaders in if they go too hard. But I have been quite taken with East Avenue's 7l and 5l wins to date, and he looks like a horse with plenty more to come.
23:05 Race 8 Del Mar
Totally Justified
Daily Racing
25 EW
@67.00
Lose
-50
Lake Victoria is already a dual G1 winner, but a combination of stall 1, the step up to 1m, and the unknown of the likes of Thought Process make her opposable in my book as an odds-on favourite, for all I expect her to win. My selection, Totally Justified, is one of the biggest prices in the field, and I can understand why. But you can put a line through her first two starts on dirt, and in 2 turf runs, she has beaten Virgin Colada fair and square at Saratoga over 1m1/2f and lost out by the narrowest margin behind May Day Ready at Keeneland over the same trip. She is a much bigger price than either of those rivals here and is very well drawn in stall 5 for a prominent runner.
22:25 Race 7 Del Mar
Scottish Lassie
Daily Racing
25 EW
@3.50
Lose
-50
Collateral form judges must be tearing their hair out at this race. Given, La Cara beat Quickick 9l on the latter's debut, that horse then beat Snowyte (2l) & Scottish Lassie (6l) with the last named on debut. Quickick then came up short against Immersive who is unbeaten, but Scottish Lassie improved 2nd time out to beat Snowyte (9l) on which form she'd appear to have the beating of Immersive. Add in the unknown of a Japanese horse who has looked really good but was running over 5f on her penultimate start. Simply put, I was really taken by Scottish Lassie last time out. She has to back that up, given the race wasn't the strongest, but I'm not too concerned about the wide draw and her 111 RPR is as good as any in the field.
Subtotal-150
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