Tips History

AdamCox13579's Tips History

26 July 2024

14:25 2:25 Ascot

True Legend

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@5.00

Lose

-5

True Legend may have made 15 career starts but he is relatively unexposed as a stayer, having ran beyond 1m4f on 4 occasions. The selection majorly caught the eye when a running on 5th in the Northumberland Plate despite getting repeatedly blocked off, he was a little unlucky not to win his penultimate start for the same reason too. His seasonal reappearance behind Aimeric has been franked with that horse dual listed placed and True Legend ran well on his only previous start here finishing 2nd to Alsakib in a 1m4f handicap. As such it's safe to assume track, trip and ground will all cause no issues and he strikes me as still well handicapped off the same mark as his latest start. Luck in running should be on his side too with just 9 runners and a decent pace looks assured with several front-runners in the pack. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 24% strike-rate in the last 14 days.

25 July 2024

15:40 3:40 Doncaster

Lady La Fay

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@6.00

Lose

-50

Miss Cynthia wins this if repeating the level of her last 3 starts at listed and G3 level, and she is well in at the weights but she is now 0-14 and has previously struggled to pick up wins in handicaps off a mark in the low 70s. Lady la Fay looks the obvious one to oppose her with. She has shown progressive form in a trio of runs to date and her last time out 2nd (reversing previous form with Cabrera) could be boosted (albeit after this race) as Incensed is well fancied for the 3:50 at Sandown.

24 July 2024

16:10 4:10 Catterick

La La Lucrative

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 9.00 on 24/07 at 01:140.10 deduction for Obee Jo@8.00 withdrawn at 07:29R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 8.00 x (1-0.10) = 8.20

@8.20

Win

A wide open event but La La Lucrative has the potential to do better on his first start since being gelded and with the hood applied for the first time. The selection has ran to this level on all 4 starts this season, improving on a reappearance 6th to finish 2nd twice before finishing 5th last time out at Thirsk. That last time out effort was a decline per RPRs but he was unbalanced before staying on.

23 July 2024

15:45 3:45 Musselburgh

Ghathanfar

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@6.50

Lose

-50

Ghathanfar hasn't won since July 2022 but he has fallen 22lbs from his peak rating of 92 and has been knocking on the door of this sort of mark previously. The selection was 5th of 20 in the Ayr Bronze Cup in September last year off 5lbs higher (under this jockey) and has since finished 2nd or 3rd on 4 occasions (from 6 runs), his run of consistent form appeared to come to an endon his penultimate start but he was 11th of 20 in a big field York handicap, running largely as his odds indicated so I wouldn't be too concerned about that and his next start (last time out)was as good as any this season, disputing the lead inside the final furlong before going down 3/4l. Ground should be fine for this runner who has been pulled out twice for unsuitable conditions and jockey Conor Beasley has ridden 7 winners in the last 2 weeks.

22 July 2024

19:50 7:50 Windsor

Sea Regal

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

Sea Regal looks open to plenty of improvement and is afforded another chance having ran below par last time out. The selection has been sent off favourite for all 3 career starts so is presumably showing plenty. Her debut 3rd has been franked by the winner Elmalka going on to win the 1000 Guineas (but the rest of the field look average at best), she won 2nd time up (despite being keen and showing signs of greeness around the bend) over this trip at Ripon in May (nothing really of note in behind). Last time out the selection was sent off 11/8f for what looked a decent enough race won by French Master, she was a bit keen but travelled best 3f out (in truth it just looked a matter of how far she'd win by), so the fact she was beaten 12l at the line is a major concern but maybe she found the 1m4f on those early exertions against her. Trainer William Haggas has had 5 winners and 10 runners-up from his last 39 runners.

21 July 2024

13:40 1:40 Curragh

Red Letter

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@2.10

Win

There are plenty of well bred newcomers here, none more so than Balley Slippers (Dubawi-Magical) but they are going to have to be useful to get the better of Red Letter who looked a sure fire next time out winner when finishing a head 2nd to Lake Victoria on debut over C&D. The pair pulled well clear of the rest which included a pair of next time out maiden winners and the 93 RPR the selection recorded is well above average for a maiden on debut. Trainer Ger Lyons hasn't been in the best of form with just 1 winner from his last 21 (including 6 beaten favourites) in the last 14 days.

1 member found this comment useful

20 July 2024

18:35 6:35 Newmarket

Danielle

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Lose

-50

Danielle is a filly I rate quite highly and I'd be very keen on her returned to soft ground (which she is unlikely to get here) but this is a step back in grade, having taken on G2 company last time out at Royal Ascot and none of the more exposed older horses look anything to be afraid of taking on here. Stable jockey Kieran Shoemark keeps the ride ahead of stablemate One Evening and in receipt of the weight for age, I could see the selection at least hitting the frame.

16:15 4:15 Curragh

Vauban

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

12 runners here but at most this looks a 3 runner race. Shamida was progressive last season but hasn't been seen since and need to improve on ratings. Tower Of London was my Leger horse last season and having just got run out of the places, I was a little surprised by how good he looked in a pair of 2m races in the middle east. The form looks genuine too with the likes of Trawlerman, Giavellotto and Siskany in behind but he flopped in the Yorkshire Cup returned to these shores (6 1/2l behind Vauban) and he has a bit to prove here. Comments which don't apply to Vauban who backed up his form with a good 4th in the Ascot Gold Cup (better than the bare form, as he looked a non-stayer at the trip) and he returns to what looks like his best trip, having bolted up in the Ascot Copper Horse Handicap last season over 1m6f.

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15:40 3:40 Curragh

Dare To Dream

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Content will likely be hard to beat if repeating the bare form of her 3rd behind Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn but I get the feeling she just picked up the pieces and having finished well held on her previous 2 starts i'd be keen to take her on. Lope De Lilas takes a massive step up having beat an 88 rated rival in a maiden and Port Fairy perhaps lacks the potential of a few of these (also a little concerning that Ryan Moore deserts). Dare To Dream is one I really like. She was behind Content as a 2yo but she has stepped up her form as a 3yo and her staying on 5th (not clearest runs) in the Prix de Diane suggests the step up to 1m4f will suit. Previously she has won a G3 nicely and did best of those held up in the G2 Prix Saint-Alary (War Chimes who has linking form lines with a few of these was in behind).

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15:00 3:00 Newbury

Regional

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Regional carries a 5lb penalty for his G1 win last season which suggests he is up against it on official ratings but he looks to be clear on ability to my eye. Regional won the Sprint Cup last season and 2nds on both his seasonal reappearance (G2) and in the King's Stand (G1) at Royal Ascot suggest he is as good as ever. Elite Status won a listed race on his comeback but another step up here is required, Lake Forest split good horses in the Commonwealth Cup but that was a clear career best and he may yet prove flattered by that. Dilligent Harry has built up a solid record of late but was well behind Regional last time out (will appreciate the return to 6f but has 6l to make up).

1 member found this comment useful

14:35 2:35 Curragh

Big Gossey

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@17.00

Win

480

Big Gossey has been trying all sorts of trips this season (5f-1m) but he returns to arguably his best trip (4 of his 7 career wins over 6f) and he continues to be handed a chance by the handicapper. The selection started this season rated 107 having won a conditions race here in November but is now 11lbs lower (Robert Whearty takes off another 5lbs and has been on-board for his last 2 wins). I'm not sure his recent form is that bad either. The selection was outclassed when sent off 33/1 & 80/1 for a pair of listed and G2 events on his 2 penultimate outings and a return to handicap company resulted in a 6th of 16 here over 5f last month, keeping on.

1 member found this comment useful

Mr Wagyu

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

Mr Wagyu has a record of 133 here, including this race in 2022 and he is now 7lbs lower than for that win. His form has dipped (winless since this race previously) but he has shown consistent form this season to finish 2nd or 3rd on 4 of his 5 starts this season.

19 July 2024

16:10 4:10 Newbury

Yah Mo Be There

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.50 used instead of 4.50 takenBOG

@5.50

Win

135

Yah Mo Be There was unable to justify his 17/2 starting price in the Coventry at Royal Ascot but he was squeezed out at the start, a bit too keen and maybe just below the form of his debut run. The form of that debut run does look decent though, the winner Andesite was a non-runner at Royal Ascot but is very well thought of by trainer Karl Burke and the 4th Asktheboss has won a novice since.

18 July 2024

18:50 6:50 Leopardstown

Bold Discovery

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

I actually fancy Diego Velazquez to get his career back on track, returned to the same trip that has seen him produce his best (I think he's just a one-paced runner rather than needing further) and I also have a lot of respect for Tarawa but I think Bold Discovery is overpriced, despite the penalty (the non-runner is more frustrating as there is only 2 places on offer). The selection is clearly closely matched with Tarawa (finished 1-2 and 5-6 at listed and G2 level last season) and for all he was very poor at Ascot latest (as was Diego Velazquez to be fair) he won a G3 here over 1m on his seasonal reappearance and he should be fine on the forecast good ground (pulled out of this race 12mths ago due to soft)

13 July 2024

17:10 5:10 Newmarket

Poniros

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.00

Lose

-50

I frustratingly Poniros last time out (frustratingly as i fancied the stablemate and winner too) but I feel Poniros deserves another chance given he was wide and keen when down the field at Ascot and his previous 2nd in the London Gold Cup reads well. The winner King's Gambit shaped the best in defeat at G3 level since, the 3rd and 4th Chantilly and Persica (both also rans in the same Ascot race as Poniros) ran quite well here yesterday and won at Sandown a few days ago by 2l respectively.

16:35 4:35 Newmarket

Regional

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.00

Void

The 3yos appear to have the edge on ratings but they've been well found in the market already and I think that Regional offers more value. The selection is a proven G1 performer at this trip, having won the Sprint Cup at Haydock last season and ran as well as ever (technically a career best on RPRs) over 5f at Royal Ascot latest.

1 member found this comment useful

16:00 4:00 Newmarket

Bless Him

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

Carrytheone has looked as good as ever latest and is still seemingly fairly treated but he is probably shorter than he should be, having hit traffic in-running latest. Bless Him hasn't won since winning this race 24 months ago but he's now 4lbs lower than when finishing 4th in last seasons edition (and 2lbs lower than when winning it previously). The selection has a habit of starting slowly in his races but that often means he can get overlooked. His 13th in the Royal Hunt Cup looks average but he was 5th of his group and he kept on after being slowly away, you can ignore his 10th at Haydock as that came in a good G3 and he isn't quite at that level anymore but a neck 3rd in the Victoria Cup off this kind of mark surely entitles him to be a lot shorter than his current price, especially at a course and trip that we know suits (soft ground would have been a concern but it looks to have dried over the week and is currently listed as good)

1 member found this comment useful

15:10 3:10 York

Botanical

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionOdds taken at 8.50

@8.50

Win

Botanical trailed home last of 15 at Royal Ascot latest but that was clearly not his true form and he likely found the fast ground an issue (previously a NR for unsuitable GF ground and his 3 best performances per RPRs have come on good or worse). The fact Botanical was so strong in the market prior to Ascot, suggests plenty thought he was capable of taking the step up in grade in stride (myself included) and it's easy to see why. The selection bolted up over this C&D on seasonal reappearance beating some solid yardsticks, his 6l win over Mr Professor was franked when that horse won the Lincoln earlier this season and an earlier 2nd to Measured Time in a Kempton novice looks good value considering that horse is now a dueal G1 winner.

1 member found this comment useful

14:12 2:12 Newmarket

Arisaig

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 7.50 on 12/07 at 19:520.10 deduction for Key To Cotai@8.00 withdrawn at 11:490.00 deduction for Rochelle @21.000 withdrawn at 13:27R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.50 x (1-0.1) = 6.85

@6.85

Win

I was on Arisaig in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot and I think she deserves another shot here. The selection travelled in to the race as strongly as anything under Jamie Spencer but found her path briefly obstructed, necessitating a switch at which point she appeared a little unbalanced. She still kept on for 8th overall (3rd of her group). The form of that race looks fairly solid too with the 1st, 4th and 5th all placing at listed level subsequently and Arisaig's penultimate form also looks good with Skukuza going on to place a clear 2nd in the Britannia off a 5lbs higher mark (subsequently raised 8lbs further). The course should suit, having twice ran well here (on the Rowley Mile course) and the drop back to 7f shouldn't cause an issue, given her best performance per RPRs came over 7 1/2f at Lingfield

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13:45 1:45 Ascot

Albasheer

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

Albasheer is better on the AW but his lower turf mark is more than deserved on his best, his recent form can be upgraded to a certain extent as he only faded late on in a G3 over 6f latest and his 18th of 25 at Ascot in the Wokingham was the result of repeatedly getting blocked in his run (the fact he was sent off just 11/2 for that and is 12/1 here is almost enough on it's own to suggest he's major value). The selection does have plenty of big field handicap turf form too, finishing 5th behind Montassib in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York, 4th behind Significantly in the Ayr Gold Cup amongst various other smart performances. Regular rider Hollie Doyle takes the mount and trainer Archie Watson has his stable in good form (last 6 runners: 212931).

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12 July 2024

17:20 5:20 Newmarket

Isle Of Lismore

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

I quite like both Robert Cowell runners here. Almaty Star who despite having done his best on the AW, still looks fairly handicapped but Isle of Lismore was ahead of that rival when they met here, on the Rowley Mile in April. The selection finished 3rd that day, with a win and 2nd place finish following. A 8th at Windsor last time out can be slightly overlooked, given Kieran Shoemark lost his irons coming out of the stalls and as a result he was unable to get a position. The return to Newmarket is a major positive, given he has a July course record reading: 1121 and he is capable of carrying top weight, having won carrying 9-10 here 12 months ago, he is obviously 9lbs higher than than and 4lbs higher than his latest win but he placed of this mark on his penultimate outing and can still be competitive.

1 member found this comment useful

17:10 5:10 Ascot

Fresh

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Win

Plenty of these are respected but i'll chance Fresh. 12 months ago the selection was running in hertiage handicaps off a mark in the low-100s but a downturn in form since September last year means he turns up for this off a mark of 91 (his lowest mark since winning off 91 in May 2021) but he has shown glimpses the last twice that he may be coming back to form. He wasn't beaten far behind Buccabay when 5th at Haydock and he was repeatedly denied a clear run at Ascot in the Buckingham Palace latest (finished 7th/26). The drop back to 6f shouldn't be an issue as he has regularly switched between 6f/7f in his career and he has plenty of track form - Ascot record reading: 212349110005007 (most of which have come in big field handicaps - record in handicaps over C&D: 21295).

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Sirona

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I was on Porta Fortuna when she won at Ascot and I was quite taken with how well she did it that day but there is no conclusive proof that the 3yo fillies are better than their elders just yet. Running Lion bounced back to form in the Duke of Cambridge at Ascot but consistency hasn't been her strong suit of late and I get the feeling she may have been flattered by a good ride. A Lilac Rolla and Rogue Milleniym are useful but look to struggle against their compatriots at the head of the market which leaves me with Sirona almost by default. The selection has been unlucky not to win either of her two starts this season, having been hampered on her comback at Lingfield and when not beaten far behind Tiber Flow at Haydock. This is a big step up in terms of opposition but the return to 1m could suit having been nearest the finish on both starts since joining David Menuisier.

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15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Bague Dor

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@8.00

Win

Bague d'Or was a well beaten 11th of 19 at Royal Ascot (behind the re-opposing Fairbanks) but the selection was a bit keen and maybe not ideally placed having been dropped out from stall 22. Bague d'Or should be fine on the forecast ground and his previous Newmarket was quite comprehensive (front 3 well clear - admittedly the form has been rather let down since) and that just added to an already impressive Newmarket record reading: 1211 (2/2 at the July course and the only C&D winner in the field). The step back to 1m6f should be fine (best 3 career runs per RPRs have come over this trip) and although trainer James Ferguson has gone 28 runners without a winner, his last 2 runners have finished 2nd at 10/3 & 12/1 so stable form isn't of major concern.

1 member found this comment useful

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Tales Of The Heart

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Tales Of The Heart has a fair bit of improvement to find on known form but she won nicely on debut beating a subsequent winner and her latest 2nd over this course and distance has been underestimated in my opinion. The winner Celandine looks fairly useful, the 3rd Arabian Dusk (who also runs here) cost a lot and has been sent off favourite on both starts, so likely has been showing fair form at home (debut 2nd behind Twafeeg on debut is decent). The 4th It Ain't Two has since finished 2nd in the listed Dragon stakes behind Norfolk 5th Aesterius and the well beaten Teej A (also runs here) had earlier form with Coventry winner Rashabar at Chester.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Involvement

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Win

195

I was on Involvement in the Brittania last time out and he ran fairly well, finishing 7th, so i see no reason not to keep the faith, considering he should appreciate the step up to 1m2f on breeding and he produced his career best (per RPRs) on soft ground at Haydock previously. The selection is still unexposed after just 5 career starts and has been ultra consistent, finishing 12327 (producing RPRs between 88-99 on 4 occasions). The Crisford stable seems to be in good form with 3 winners from thier last 10 runners and Oisin Murphy is a good jockey booking.

1 member found this comment useful

11 July 2024

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Giavellotto

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@7.00

Win

187

Hamish drops back to his level having had a rare foray in to G1 territory latest, Arrest finally gets his ground (I honestly don't know why they bother running on fast ground at this point) on which his form reads: 212. Giavellotto is a hard horse to place given his best trip appears to be 1m6f (hasn't been seen at this short of a trip since April 2022) but he was dominant in the Yorkshire Cup beating Vauban, Gregory and Al Qareem. Form of which gives him strong claims (Al Qareem finished 1 3/4l & nk behing Hamish on his 2 starts prior). He does tend to produce his best at York but a 5l win here in 2022 suggests he should have no issues handling it and he has looked an improved horse this season to my eye and even with a 3lb penalty I don't understand how there is such a discrepancy in price with Hamish (who is surely getting underpriced on the back of a Coronation Cup 2nd which isn't that strong (winner beaten in 8 of his last 9 starts prior). Stable form is the only thing that worries me (0-24 last 16 days).

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Two Tribes

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 11/07 at 02:580.10 deduction for Woodhay Wonder@7.00 withdrawn at 07:450.00 deduction for Aramram @26.000 withdrawn at 09:31R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.1) = 11.80

@11.80

Win

Two Tribes was well held on his latest start (behind a few of these) but he didn't run badly at all and his previous form is ultra consistent. The selection finished 2nd on seasonal reappearance here on the Rowley Mile and that form has been franked with the winner James's Delight now 13lbs higher having won a handicap and a listed race since, the 3rd home finished 5th in the Palace of Holyrood, just behind Woodhay Wonder. The 4th Trefor has won both starts since and is 10lbs higher & the 5th is also now 6lbs higher having won by 3l in a handicap latest. The return to 6f could suit Two Tribes and i'm not too concerned about the softer ground, having ran well on good to soft previously.

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Whistlejacket

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.38

Win

I was keen to be against Whistlejacket at Royal Ascot last time out and although I was vindicated as he came up short in the Norfolk, he actually ran better than I expected and the return to 6f here should suit. It's not an exact measurement but Norfolk 5th Aesterius has come out to win the listed Dragon Stakes beating Coventry also rans The Actor and Zminiature which suggests to me (as well as the big prices of the first 4 home) that this years Coventry wasn't the strongest which goes against Electrolyte here. Ain't Nobody was very strong in the betting before winning the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot which is notable but that is traditionally one of the weaker 2yo races and the 3rd and 4th have both come up short in a listed race at Deauville (both finished behind Norfolk 6th Binadham fwiw too)

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Space Legend

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

Ancient Wisdom may have bumped in to a star in the Dante, although as that was a clear career best from Economics (who hasn't been seen since) i'm doubtful and he appeared to have little excuse for his Derby 8th (bt over 16l) so i would be keen to take him on at a short price. Space Legend is somewhat the selection by default, he appears to hold Royal Supremancy on lto form and is arguably open to more improvement. He was an unlucky loser on his previous start and tipped Calandagan at Ascot, I think he bumped in to a useful one. Portland is the most experienced of these but looks short on form. Tactics could be interesting here with none of the runners confirmed front-runners or proven stayers at the trip.

07 July 2024

16:15 4:15 Deauville

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Lose

-50

Tribalist is developing a very successful CV having won 6 of his last 7 starts on French soil but there has to be a major question mark as to whether they've entered him in the right race, having never ran at shorter than 7f (last 9 starts over 1m). Spycatcher ran okay last time, bouncing back from a poor run at York previously. His prior form is strong though, a 3rd at Newmarket (race filled with subsequent winners Mill Stream, Mitbaahy, Tiber Flow & Makarova). Last season the selection ran away with this race by 3l beating Batwan in to 2nd (a weaker renewal admittedly) before going very close in the G1 Maurice de Gheest here (again a weaker renewal). 3rd in the Champions Sprint at the end of the season (despite a troubled passage) behind Art Power & Kinross confirmed him to be a near top level performer at his best.

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15:07 3:07 Deauville

Havana Cigar

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Win

The 2-3-4 from the French 1000 Guineas reoppose here and look closely matched but that form doesn't look the strongest (winner well held since, 3rd Vespertilio struggled in the Irish equivalent). Kikkuli is unexposed after just 4 starts and a close 2nd to Haatem is the best form on offer in my opinion but Havana Cigar looks the one who is overpriced for me. The selection hasn't won since his first two career starts but close up 3rd place efforts behind Elite Status, Beauvatier and Alcantor in G3s are solid and he has built on that in 2 starts at that sort of level this season. Finishing 2nd by the narrowest of margins on both occasions. He hold the reopposing Sajir on his last time out form and he managed to finish ahead of Devil's Point as a 2yo. 7f on soft looks like it could be the selections ideal conditions and Rouget/Soumillon are strong connections in races like this.

1 member found this comment useful

06 July 2024

16:25 4:25 Haydock

Billyjoh

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.50

Void

I think Mister Sketch is overprived here but Billyjoh has to be of major interest given his recent run of form. The selection produced a career best to finish 2nd to runaway Royal Ascot winner English Oak in the Buckingham Palace on his first go at 7f latest and he is desperately unlucky that none of his previous 6 starts have yielded a win. He keeping on and beat just a neck at Ascot in May, beat a neck at Southwell in April despite getting hampered and slow starts did for him on each of his 3 previous starts. Attitude isn't a major concern despite 3 runners-up efforts from his last 4 starts (4 time winner from 17). Hard to see out of the frame at least.

1 member found this comment useful

Mister Sketch

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Void

Mister Sketch could bomb out here as he did on his penultimate start but he was a close up runner-up at G2 level last season and his only start at 7f was amongst his best (Newbury G3 on reappearance) and as a 3yo receives weight from most of his rivals (3 3yos have ran in this race the last 2 years, they've finished 1st and 1st&2nd)

15:35 3:35 Sandown

Al Riffa

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@17.00

Win

City of Troy if repeating anything but his Guineas effort looks borderline unbeatable here and he certainly hold the classic generation on English/French derby form but he has yet to be tested against his elders, frustratingly most of them aren't here but Al Riffa's best form is good (indeed he is 2nd highest rated here). You can put a line through his latest run at Saratoga as he appeared to not let down on rattling fast ground (previously unraced on firmer than good). Prior to that Al Riffa finished 4th behind Haya Zark in the G1 Ganay, the winner & 5th went on to place in the G1 Isphan on their next starts and the well held Zarakem has since finished 2nd in the Price of Wales's. Last season Al Riffa finished a close up 2nd to Ace Impact over this trip in the Guillaume d'Ornano, that form is not to be taken at face value as the winner was just prepping for the Arc but it shows the level Al Riffa can reach at his best.

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15:15 3:15 Haydock

If Not Now

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@17.00

Void

If Not Now finished 23l behind Relentless Voyager at Epsom latest but that was clearly not his form (appeared to not handle the undulations). Prior to that If Not Now had finished 3rd in a Lingfield handicap behind Aimeric (dual listed runner-up subequently) and True Legend (beaten by the narrowest of margins at Goodwood and 5th in the Northumberland Plate despite repeated getting denied a clear run). That isn't the only form that gives If Not Now a chance either as he finished 3rd behind Gregory in a Haydock Noivce and 5th in the German Derby last season. Trainer Ralph Beckett has had 11 winners from his last 42 and his last 14 runners have finished: 11414116835422.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Sandown

Clove Hitch

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.50

Lose

-50

Clove Hitch is a very hard horse to weigh up given the ease at which she won last time out. The selection started this season with a 3rd in a Newbury maiden, form which took an almighty boost with Economics running away with the Dante on his next start (but the runner-up came up short in a York novice - admittedly to a smart horse). Clove Hitchs' 2nd to Cat Ninja at Windsor took a bit of a knock with that horse finishing 16l behind Soprano in the Sandingham (but was sent off just 7/1 so better was expected), the 4th Dream Seeker runs earlier on the card today. Last time out though Clove Hitch ran away with a Newbury fillies novice. The runner-up beaten 8l has been unraced since but the 3rd beaten 16l finished only 6l adrift of a pair of mid-80s runners on her next start and the 4th also beaten 16l was previously placed on debut.

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14:25 2:25 Sandown

Point Lynas

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Point Lynas is probably handicapped to his best but a 4th last time out behind Tiber Flow in a G3 at Haydock was a fair effort and suggests he is at least worth his career high mark. The step back to 1m should be no issue given all 3 of his wins for this trainer have come at this trip.

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13:50 1:50 Sandown

Makarova

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@7.50

Win

195

Live In The Dream looks to have a massive chance at the ratings and his Nunthorpe win is clearly the best form on offer but he was very disappointing last time out (stumbled coming out of the stalls), that is forgivable but that makes it just 1 win from his last 8 starts and I'm keen to look elsewhere. Desperate Hero bolted up latest but i'd like to see him repeat that clear career best (previously looked a low 90s rated runner at best). Makarova was 2nd in this race 12 months ago behind Equality but she has held her form well since (unlike the winner), hitting the frame in a series of graded events (just over 2l behind Live In The Dream in the Nunthorpe). The selection does have to reverse form with Twilight Calls from Ascot but that horse has yet to produce his best away from the royal meeting. Inside stalls (drawn 2) are a big advantage at Sandown (providing you can get the gaps when you need them) and trainer Ed Walker has had 15 of his last 21 runners finish in the first 3 (4 winners).

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13:15 1:15 Sandown

Storm Star

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.00

Lose

-50

Andrew Balding doesn't have a load of first time out winners and Storm Star made a fairly debut success. The horse he beat, was race fit and has won since (rated 82). It would therefore appear he took a backwards step last time out at Kempton but that looked a fair race in truth and due to race conditions he was giving weight to all his rivals. The winner that day Dosman has since finished 3rd in a Newmarket novice (rated 92) and the runner-up Cat Ninja was sent off just 7/1 for the Sandringham (made no real impression - rated 90) all that suggests that there could still be mileage in a mark of 83 for Storm Star and trainer Andrew Balding is in decent form too with 9 winners from his last 51 runners (3 wins & 2 2nds from his last 9).

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30 June 2024

16:05 4:05 Curragh

Sunway

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Win

Sunway has yet to build on his G1 Criterium win this season but he looks a big enough price to chance here. On ratings he is 3rd highest here and I much prefer him over Matsuri who impressed beating a bunch of mid-70s rated horses at Leicester and Grosvenor Square who was beat over 10l in the Chester Vase. The selection was only narrowly denied at G3 level on his penultimate start and he wasn't ideally placed in the French Derby (prix du jockey club). The 2nd First Look and 5th Mondo Man both ran okay at Royal Ascot without advertising the form as anything special but as an alternative to Los Angeles and Ambiente Friendly (who look very closely matched), Sunway could be a decent place option.

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15:25 3:25 Curragh

Lord Massusus

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 6.00 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

300

Azada is open to any amount of improvement but I think the 1000 guineas form doesn't entitle her to be as short as she is here. Fallen Angel won well and Opera Singer need both the run and further, outside of those you have a bunch of low 100 rated runners. Lord Massusus has to give the favourite a lot of weight but is justifiably rated 106. The selection was outclassed at G1 level over 1m2f latest but his previous 2nd to White Birch, 3rd at listed level this season set a fair standard and he was smart last season too. Winning a G3 and finishing in the frame at G2 level. The drop back to 1m looks a good move and he has proved himself ground versatile, achieving 108+ RPRs on 5 occasions (1 on Heavy, 2 on Soft & 2 on Good).

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15:00 3:00 Uttoxeter

Kinondo Kwetu

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Lose

-50

Hang In There is horribly handicapped in real terms with a mark of 155 but he is very strong compared to the usual 'summer jumpers' and even with a massive weight has to go well but Kinondo Kwetu can make amends for a slightly unlucky 3rd in this race 12 months ago (off a 5lbs lower mark). The selection has Uttoxeter form reading 113 and although his last two starts weren't pretty (11th/20 & PU) his previous 4th behind Cruz Control (Sam Brown & Forward Plan) at Aintree is rock solid. He is a confirmed stayer having placed in the race previous and has won up to as far as 3m1f.

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14:50 2:50 Curragh

Big Gossey

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Big Gossey has been well held on all 5 starts this season, over a variety of trips (5f-1m) but he wasn't totally disgraced when not getting a clear run behind Yosemite Valley in the Gladness Stakes and his latest run was at G2 level (all 5 turf wins here & in handicaps/conditions events). As a result of this Big Gossey is now 9lbs below his last handicap start and off the same mark as when winning a premier handicap here (over 6f) in September. 5f might be a bit sharp on recent evidence (C&D winner Aug '22) as his recent runs over the trip have been poor but he finished 4th in a C&D handicap off 2lbs higher in July last season and his 4 subsequent 5f starts read: Close up 4th(11/4)-G3(18/1)-Poor but now 9lbs lower(20/1)-Listed(33/1).

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29 June 2024

15:25 3:25 Newmarket

Pogo

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.50

Lose

-50

Noble Dynasty could be really good if the form of his 2l win over English Oak is taken at face value, considering he was giving 15lbs and a beating to a now 108 rated runner but the rest of the field have done nothing and he could prove a slightly vulnerable favourite. Pogo is a mainstay of the 7f division and very rarely fails to run his race. He finished 3rd here to Audience last year and won this race the year before. He finished 4th behind a good horse in Charyn over 1m on his seasonal reappearance and subsequent efforts returned to his ideal trip have been strong (113-110 RPRs), especially considering he has been pestered on the lead on both occasions. He should only have Noble Dynasty to worry about today pestering him and that isn't even guarenteed.

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14:35 2:35 Newcastle

Haveyoumissedme

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Haveyoumissedme generally saves his best for here having finished 5241231562 in his career (961512235488600 elsewhere). Including a 2nd in this race 12mths ago behind the clearly well handicapped Zoffee (won Chester Cup off 6lbs higher mark). The selection has struggled for form this season but he ran well over C&D on his penultimate start and he looks fairly handicapped.

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14:04 2:04 Newcastle

Albasheer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

I'd be more confident in my win selection Spycatcher but at the prices Albasheer may be worth a gamble each-way. The selection produced a big career best here in March when running away with a 5f handicap off top-weight (beating a consistent yardstick in Billyjoh who finished 2nd in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot) . The 117 RPR he produced then was better than Tiber Flow and Spycatcher produced when finishing 1-2 in this race 12mths ago. It would be fair to say Albasheer has failed to match that form in 3 subsequent starts but he was too keen and probably anchored by a big weight on Good Friday (behind Fivethousandtoone), two turf runs after on heavy ground at Chantilly and the Wokingham at Royal Ascot (no clear run) are fairly easy to excuse.

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Spycatcher

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Kinross is the best horse in this field but he has plenty of negatives today. He often needs his comeback run, 6f is less than ideal (unless the going is soft) and although he was very good last year he did regress slightly. Spycatcher is the next best at the ratings and finished a close 2nd in this race last year (pulled 3l clear of the 3rd), since then he has become a G3 winner and multiple G1 placed, so he may be an improved horse. Karl Burke has his string in good form and I have to assume this race was a likely target since his York flop, given he skipped Royal Ascot whereas a couple of these are likely to have bigger targets down the line.

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22 June 2024

18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot

Drawn To Dream

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Drawn To Dream finished a good 6th behind Belloccio here on Tuesday and plenty have returned to go well in the finale on Saturday having ran earlier in the week (The Grand Visir for example who finished 8th on Tuesday last year before finishing 2nd in this race behind Dawn Rising). Admittedly they are usually coming here having ran in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes (as Ndaawi does) but the selection does have a win over 2m4f on soft ground in Germany to his name (done most of his racing over middle distances). An official handicap mark of 105 (Queenstown 107, Dawn Rising 105, Run For Oscar 103) suggests he is worth much more than his odds of 40/1 suggest and although Jamie Osbourne hasn't threatened a winner this week, given his runners have been sent off 33/1, 66/1, 33/1, 66/1 & 66/1 the fact that they've managed to finish in the first half of the field (8/17, 7/15, 6/16, 11/29, 8/19, 9/28) is a positive.

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17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Apollo One

Daily Racing

25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@15.00

Void

Apollo One blotted his copy book by finishing 3rd instead of 2nd last time out at Epsom but he was beaten only a length and still looks hard to keep out of the frame off an unchanged mark. The selection found all luck deserting him last year when winning both the Stewards Cup and this race 12 months (on his side) only to find one too good on the other side. All ground is fine and he has taken the exact same route to this race as last year (finishing 2nd & 3rd instead of 3rd & 2nd). He is 6lbs higher this year but he went close in the Stewards Cup off just a 2lb lower mark so I have little concerns over his mark.

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16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Night Raider

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

Haatem and River Tiber look closely matched and minor preference is for the former at the prices but i'll take a chance on Night Raider. The selection bolted up in a pair of Southwell novices which saw him briefly go single digit odds for the Guineas, unsurprisingly people saw sense and he was eventually sent off 25/1 and having finished 27 lengths behind Haatem he appears to have a mountain to climb but he didn't appreciate the step up in trip, pulled hard and looked uncomfortable on the track. Track, trip and going should all be more to his liking here today and Karl Burke has already had a couple of winners here this week.

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15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Shouldvebeenaring

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Shouldvebeenaring has been very inconsistent this season, finishing well behind Mitbaahy in the Greelands Stakes last time out and behind the same rival as well as Mill Stream in the Abernant but he finished just a nose behind Mill stream in the Duke of York on his penultimate start. The selection also has smart back form, finishing 2nd to Little Big Bear in a G2 at Haydock, 2nd to Regional in the G1 Sprint Cup and close up 3rd in the G1 Foret. He appears to handle all ground and should appreciate the stiffer 6f here (midfield in the Commonwealth Cup on only previous start here).

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15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Continuous

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

Continuous was 2nd to Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel here 12 months ago in the King Edward and he continued to improve throughout the season, winning the Great Voltigeur in style, beating most of these in the Leger over 1m6f (Desert Hero & Middle Earth in behind as well as subsequent smart stayers Tower of London & Gregory. Arguably the selections best form was finishing 5th in the Arc. That form is top class and he can probably be upgraded a little as he was short of room close home and the race came only 2 weeks after the Leger. The fact he hasn't been seen this year is the only concern, taking on fitter rivals but as far as I understand this has been the aim all along and he hasn't had any issues. The horse also seems very surface versatile having ran to form on everything from very soft to good to firm previously.

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