AdamCox13579

Mint Bay hasn't really showed much in his 4 starts over fences to date, finishing 3rd a couple of times but trainer Gavin Cromwell does well in this type of race, Barry O'Neill is a good jockey booking and his reappearance 3rd behind Sa Majeste (2nd) suggests he can reverse form on 4lb better terms. Since then the selection has been kept to 2m5f and dropped back to 2m1f, which is likely an insufficient stamina test, with his best hurdles form over 2m4f on heavy and over 3m. He tackles 3m2f for the first time today.

By far the most interesting graded chase of the week for my money with plenty to ponder. Fact To File drops back to possibly his best trip, Il Est Francais would be my pick but has to prove he can handle to course, Protektorat won this 12 months ago and is peaking at the right time based on his last time out win and Envoi Allen is another past winner who always go well here but Djelo is my pick. He will likely be ridden to pick up the pieces and if judged on his easy Peterborough Chase win over Protektorat rather than his heavy reverse to that same rival at Windsor, he is massively overpriced and at only 7 he could still be improving, having recorded a career best 170 RPR last time out

He may yet prove himself way better than his mark but I can't be having Jeriko Du Reponet based on his on course accomplishments. Harbour Lake has plenty of experience but appears to be in career best form. He has form here, having chased home Zain Nights here in April and after another reverse to that same rival at Haydock, he won in good style on seasonal reappearance at Aintree, pulling well clear with Guard The Moon who has since chased home Coral Cup runner-up Impose Toi at Newbury.

I really struggled with this race but I'll chance Answer To Kayf. He was a good 4th here last season in handicap hurdle company and is only 8lbs higher for this. He never threatened on his first two starts over fences but he would likely have been up against it, even at his best behind the likes of Impaire Et Passe, Lecky Watson and Slade Steel. He returned to handicap company with a facile victory off a mark of 130 at Naas in January and has presumably been kept for this race since. It was a weak enough race, nothing has franked the form as such since but he won easily enough to think there was more in the locker and his 147 RPR is as good as many in here.

The Irish have fairly dominated mares races at the festival since their introduction and they are again mob handed but I like Jubilee Alpha. She was amongst the best of these in bumpers finishing 2nd to Diva Luna at Aintree last year and unlike that rival has appeared to improve for hurdles. Her two wins to date haven't been wide margin affairs but she did it comfortably enough and the form has been franked with Bluey and Hollygrove Cha Cha both winning their subsequent starts. The step up in grade here will require improvement, given her 128 career high RPR is short of the 130+ figures Sixandahalf and Aurora Vega have achieved but she's still unexposed and the fact stable jockey sticks rather than switch to a 2-2, last time out 26l winning stablemate is a positive.

The usual lottery of lightly raced, impressive bumper winners in here but in recent years Gordon Elliott has been knocking on the door of this race and he looks to have another solid contender in Kalypso'chance. The selection won his point 13 lengths and has won a pair of Irish bumpers with the minimal amount of fuss.

Sandor Clegane would have had plenty of options having made an okay novice chaser last season (kept almost exclusively to graded company) and having finished 3rd in the 2023 Albert Bartlett, he clearly is versatile and generally consistent but takes on his first handicap start here. The trip should be fine, given his last win came at Punchestown over 2m4f & hurdles. His mark of 147 might be a little harsh but he has peaked at the festival the last two years and will likely appreciate the better ground and shorter trip than for his latest start.

The first of the JP McManus pick 'em races of the festival, with his colours onboard the first 3 in the betting. All have very similar profiles, so the market may yet prove most informative, given I'm doing this in advance i'll take advantage of the extra places on offer with Holy See. The selection was sent off 6/4f for the Naas race that has produced several winners and placed horses previously, he is still open to improvement but he may just have the benefit of more experience over those at the head of the betting.

A race i'd be staying away from betting wise. I'll tip Constitution just cause i'd like to see him win but it's not confident. He hasn't blown me away in his 2 starts back from layoff but he has done what he's needed to and Brighterdaysahead is hard to get a handle on, given she beat a clearly below par State Man, who himself has looked a shadow of his best this year. Golden Ace took advantage of a slowly run race to beat Brighterdaysahead here last year and Burdett Road has a good course record but both look well up against it on ratings.

This should be a procession for Lossiemouth, epecially given how Jade De Grugy has made hard work of her latest wins and she has upwards of 12lbs in hand over the rest but Jetara could be one that is overpriced for a place. She actually comes in with the 4th highest rating and beat a solid yardstick in Kateira at Doncaster latest. Her previous heavy defeat at the hands of July Flower is a concern but the fact she was sent of shorter than both July Flower and Kala Conti (the 1-2) suggests better was expected and she didn't jump or travel as well as she can, so maybe it was just an off day/

The only race on day 1 that actually interests me as a betting prospect and three spring off the page at me. Katate Dori who made a mockery of what had looked a competitve handicap at Kempton, up 12lbs but could yet rate higher, especially if he can cut out mistakes. Myretown who is hard to assess on 2 wins in small fields and was of interest at a price, given connections but not at 12/1 for me & Sequestered, who has improved no end in 2 handicap starts this year having come up sort in open company last year and his most recent 2nd (even when not jumping well) has been franked by the 3rd winning since.

A poignant start to the festival and the first of many where it's hard to look past the favourite, but he is light on experience and it wasn't the strongest G1 he won. William Munny looked good but still has to show he's improved past his earlier conquerer Workahead, himself well held on hurdling debut. Romeo Coolio is probably the most solid rival for the fav but his Royal Bond defeat doesn't look great. I'll chance Irancy given he hasn't really showed his hand after a bloodless victory in a weak maiden and his 3rd behind Firefox and Ballyburn last year suggest he might not be far away if this is far from a vintage renewal.