AdamCox13579

10% Luck, 20% Skill, 15% Concentrated Power Of Will, 5% Pleasure and 50% Pain.

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AdamCox13579's Tips History

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22 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot

Drawn To Dream

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Drawn To Dream finished a good 6th behind Belloccio here on Tuesday and plenty have returned to go well in the finale on Saturday having ran earlier in the week (The Grand Visir for example who finished 8th on Tuesday last year before finishing 2nd in this race behind Dawn Rising). Admittedly they are usually coming here having ran in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes (as Ndaawi does) but the selection does have a win over 2m4f on soft ground in Germany to his name (done most of his racing over middle distances). An official handicap mark of 105 (Queenstown 107, Dawn Rising 105, Run For Oscar 103) suggests he is worth much more than his odds of 40/1 suggest and although Jamie Osbourne hasn't threatened a winner this week, given his runners have been sent off 33/1, 66/1, 33/1, 66/1 & 66/1 the fact that they've managed to finish in the first half of the field (8/17, 7/15, 6/16, 11/29, 8/19, 9/28) is a positive.
1 member found this comment useful
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Apollo One

Daily Racing

25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@15.00

Void

0

Apollo One blotted his copy book by finishing 3rd instead of 2nd last time out at Epsom but he was beaten only a length and still looks hard to keep out of the frame off an unchanged mark. The selection found all luck deserting him last year when winning both the Stewards Cup and this race 12 months (on his side) only to find one too good on the other side. All ground is fine and he has taken the exact same route to this race as last year (finishing 2nd & 3rd instead of 3rd & 2nd). He is 6lbs higher this year but he went close in the Stewards Cup off just a 2lb lower mark so I have little concerns over his mark.
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Night Raider

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

Haatem and River Tiber look closely matched and minor preference is for the former at the prices but i'll take a chance on Night Raider. The selection bolted up in a pair of Southwell novices which saw him briefly go single digit odds for the Guineas, unsurprisingly people saw sense and he was eventually sent off 25/1 and having finished 27 lengths behind Haatem he appears to have a mountain to climb but he didn't appreciate the step up in trip, pulled hard and looked uncomfortable on the track. Track, trip and going should all be more to his liking here today and Karl Burke has already had a couple of winners here this week.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Shouldvebeenaring

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Shouldvebeenaring has been very inconsistent this season, finishing well behind Mitbaahy in the Greelands Stakes last time out and behind the same rival as well as Mill Stream in the Abernant but he finished just a nose behind Mill stream in the Duke of York on his penultimate start. The selection also has smart back form, finishing 2nd to Little Big Bear in a G2 at Haydock, 2nd to Regional in the G1 Sprint Cup and close up 3rd in the G1 Foret. He appears to handle all ground and should appreciate the stiffer 6f here (midfield in the Commonwealth Cup on only previous start here).
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Continuous

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

Continuous was 2nd to Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel here 12 months ago in the King Edward and he continued to improve throughout the season, winning the Great Voltigeur in style, beating most of these in the Leger over 1m6f (Desert Hero & Middle Earth in behind as well as subsequent smart stayers Tower of London & Gregory. Arguably the selections best form was finishing 5th in the Arc. That form is top class and he can probably be upgraded a little as he was short of room close home and the race came only 2 weeks after the Leger. The fact he hasn't been seen this year is the only concern, taking on fitter rivals but as far as I understand this has been the aim all along and he hasn't had any issues. The horse also seems very surface versatile having ran to form on everything from very soft to good to firm previously.
1 member found this comment useful
21 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot

Tazara

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@34.00

Lose

-50

Tazara drops back to 5f for the first time, having done all her racing over 6f / 6 1/2f and on faster ground than previously encountered but she has some interesting form in the book, especially if several runners go well earlier on the card. The selection split the very unexposed Pandora's Gift (runs in the Commonwealth Cup - rated 101) and subsequent ready winner Jabaara (now rated 105) and 100 rated Soprano (runs in the Sandringham) in behind (off level weights) at Chelmsford last month and she finished 2nd to subsequent French 1000 Guineas Rouhiya (runs in the Coronation Stakes) in an AW conditions event last November (again off level weights).
1 member found this comment useful
17:40 5:40 Royal Ascot

Calandagan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Win

300

Calandagan has a major question mark over ground conditions, having raced exclusively on the all-weather or soft/heavy going but he comes here as one of the highest rated runners (110) and his form appears to stack up. He finished 3rd behind subsequent French Guineas winner & St. James Palace Stakes 3rd Metropolitan on debut, he followed that with a 10 length win on the AW and has shown a good turn of foot to win a pair of G3s latest. The 3rd behind him last time out was a ready G2 winner in Germany on his next start and his previous win inflicted a first defeat on the smart Bright Picture.
1 member found this comment useful

Space Legend

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Diego Velazquez was surprisingly promining in the French 2000 Guineas but then equally disappointing in the the French Derby. The step up in trip and drop in grade seems an obvious choice but he looks a vulnerable favourite. Space Legend has a fair bit to find on official ratings but he was unlucky not to win last time out (no clear run) and that form looks fairly strong with the fortunate winner Meydaan previously finishing 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial behind Ambiente Friendly and again wasn't disgraced upped to 1m6f behind Illinois here on Wednesday. New owners Wathnan Racing have spent well this week with a lot of their big money purchases running well and this could be another.
1 member found this comment useful
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Arisaig

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I could easily see either Ralph Beckett horse winning this, preference for Forever Blue given she looks in desperate need for this step up to 1m but at a bigger price I think Arisaig could go well. The selection won in good style last time out, quickening up well to come from last to first and her previous 3rd behind Skukuza has been franked with that horse finishing a clear 2nd in the Britannia yesterday. The bigger field and faster pace should allow Arisaig to settle better than she has on her last 2 starts.
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Deakin

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

There was little between Crystal Black, Deakin and Safecracker at the Curragh last time out and there will likely be even less between off these revised terms. The step up to 1m4f is an unknown for the first named but all 3 appear likely to improve for it. The selection was particularly impressive in a pair of 1m4f races at the end of last season. Stable form is a question mark as a lot have been running below form this season but he did have a runner-up yesterday. A wide draw is often a positive over this trip here as he can stay out of the inside scrimmaging. Faster ground is an unknown for Deakin but he's handled good in the past and his breeding and action both suggest it should be no issue.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Porta Fortuna

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Win

210

Opera Singer is top rated and could improve for her run in the Irish 1000 Guineas but this faster ground asks another question of her and I don't know if she should be as short as she is. Porta Fortuna is the selection having split Elmalka (benefitted from pace collapse) and Ramateulle (probably a 7f horse) in the 1000 guineas, I can easily see her reversing form and it's slightly gone under the radar with the flashing home 1st and 4th and 3rd kicking for home too soon that Porta Fortuna travelled well into the Guineas and ran down Ramateulle close home. She gets her ideal conditions here too, having won the Albany here last season and won on firmer ground both at Newmarket (Middle Park) and Santa Anita (BC Juv. Fil. Turf).
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Givemethebeatboys

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I really like the chances of Inisherin for the win but i can't resist the price about Givemethebeatboys. The selection only has 3 wins from 7 starts to his name but he's lost little in defeat, he was beaten a head by the 120 rated G1 winner Bucanero Fuerte last time out and previous G1 defeats behind Vandeek (Middle Park) & Bucanero Fuerte (Phoenix) are still amongst the best form on offer here. He has previous Ascot form, having finished 4th in the Coventry behind River Tiber last season and should be well suited by todays race conditions, with 6f and faster ground ideal (raced exclusively on good or better since debut (GF when 4th in Middle Park - was ahead of Starlust that day too)).
1 member found this comment useful

Inisherin

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 3.25 on 21/06 at 01:010.15 deduction for Elite Status@5.50 withdrawn at 09:13R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.25 x (1-0.15) = 2.91Best Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.91 BOG

@3.25

Win

112

Inisherin split a pair of middle distance horses over 1m on debut and followed up over the same trip at Newcastle in March but he took his form to a new level dropped back to 6f last time out, having ran too free in the 2000 Guineas. The bare form of that win can be questioned to a degree with the well fancied Vandeek running well below his best but Inisherin won it in good style over a solid yardstick and has the beating of Jasour through collateral form via Purosangue. Jasour also has work to do with owener-mate Elite State but he is apparently a questionable runner at this stage. Starlust comes here top-rated off the back of his ready handicap win over 5f at York but he's repeatedly came up short at this level and doesn't appear to be desperate for a return to 6f. I like Givemethebeatboys to hit the frame but the rest of the field look up against it if Inisherin repeats his last time out form.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Simmering

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

75

I don't like either of the market leaders at their price, therefore i've gone with Twafeeg for win purposes but i'll also add Simmering to the book each-way. The selection has the best form in the book for this race, with his 3rd place at York looking above average. The winner has followed up at G3 level, the 4th won a maiden by 6l and the well beaten 7th and 13th have even managed a subsequent win. Simmering travelled like the best horse that day but finished weakly, the stiffer finish here does therefore sound alarm bells but that was on good to soft ground and the liklihood is that the selection will improve on better ground. Trainer Ollie Sangster has only had a 150/1 runner this week at Royal Ascot but his runner have been in good form elsewhere and jockey Jamie Spencer has already ridden a 2yo winner here this week.
1 member found this comment useful

Twafeeg

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-50

Fairy Godmother is plenty short enough considering all she did on 2nd start was reverse form with her debut conquerer and that previous race has produced little more than a maiden winner. Similar comments apply to Mountain Breeze who's form is equally meh considering her price. Twafeeg showed good speed following a slow start to make most at Doncaster on debut and that form compares with the two favourite in my book. The 4th (bt 5l has won since) and the runner-up was a 525k breeze-up buy. Trainer Archie Watson has done well with his 2yos this week (unlike Aidan O'Briens who've been a bit disappointing) having the Coventry runner-up (40/1), Windsor Castle 4th & 5th (100/1 & 22/1) as well as the Norfolk 5th (8/1).
1 member found this comment useful
20 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot

Summerghand

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

English Oak was very impressive last time out but he faces very different conditions here and I quite fancy a few of the 'old boys' to run well here but final preference is for Summerghand who has been dropped another 1lb for his latest defeat (now 14lbs lower than when running off 107 as recently as last September). The selection has shown glimpses of late, including when a fast finishing 5th at Newmarket in April (denied clear run) and when keeping on well behind a few of these rivals at the same track in May. A heavy defeat at York can be ignored as he was hampered and basically pulled up. Summerghand also has previous here, finishing 54208520 in 8 career Ascot starts including a 5th, 2nd and 5th in various Wokinghams. He attempts 7f for just the sixth time & over C&D for just the second time (4th) but he appears to take longer to find top gear in his now 10th year and that could be a wise move on the forecast faster ground (3 best turf runs per RPRs coming on Good to Firm).
1 member found this comment useful
17:40 5:40 Royal Ascot

Sons And Lovers

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

It wouldn't surprise if First Look, who sets a good standard on his French Derby 2nd but surely would have wanted softer conditions or King's Gambit, who quickened up in impressive style latest but takes a big step up in grade win this and win it well but there are a few potential improvers lurking and I think Sons And Lovers could prove overpriced. The selection ran quite well against subsequent dual guineas placed Haatem in the Craven and again when 3rd behind the useful Almaqam, looking in need of further on both occasions. He gets that step up in trip today and he appears ground versatile.
1 member found this comment useful
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Involvement

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Involvement was a ready debut winner on good to firm, so that should put to bed any concerns as to him handling faster conditions than when running at Haydock last time out. The selection was beat by Nellie Leylax that day off a 6lb lower mark and undoubtedly the rise in the weights is harsh but he pulled 4 lengths clear of the 3rd and an arguement can be made that Involvement should be unbeaten. He won on debut, was too keen and had to switch around most of the field on his 2nd start (2nd bt hd), again keen and got a typical not clear Epsom run when beaten on 3rd start and the winner appeared to steal the race from the front latest, so he could yet prove well handicapped with the bigger field and strong pace likely to help him settle.
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Trawlerman

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 6.50 takenBOG

@8.00

Win

10

Kyprios was looking like being the next star stayer at the conclusion of his 4yo campaign but he had an interrupted season last year (beat in both Irish Leger & Long Distance Cup) and he hasn't impressed in winning a pair of races, he was fully entitled to win easier than he did this season. Trawlerman inflicted a defeat on Kyprios last season and although he has to prove he want as far as this, he gets 2m well. The selection could only manage 3rd in the Meydan Gold Cup in March but he wasn't given the best ride by Kieran Shoemark (Buick on-board today) and even so he did have Giavelloto (bt Gregory & Vauban in the Yorkshire Cup) in behind that day.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

You Got To Me

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@9.50

Win

17

You Got To Me's Oaks Trial win was a little questionable at the time given she got loose on the lead and Rubies Are Red gave herself a lot to do but she appeared to prove she was the best horse in the field by finishing 4th in the Oaks. Danielle would be of interest on softer ground but that seems unlikely today.
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Poniros

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

A wide draw is no negative in this race with 12 of the last 15 winners coming from a double figure stall (2 of the 3 other came from 8) which is a postive considering I fancy both Ralph Beckett trained runner, preference is for Going The Distance but he is bred for softer conditions and may be best seen another day. Poniros is equally lightly raced and he travelled really strongly in the London Gold Cup last time out, he couldn't match the turn of foot shown by King's Gambit but the fact he stayed on for 2nd, offers hope he could yet improve for a first attempt at 1m4f. I also see no reason why Chantilly on slightly better terms or Persica on worse terms would reverse that LGC form.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Aesterius

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Whistlejacket produced a good RPR last time out and the form was franked with Arizona Blaze winning a G3 but that form has been let down a bit by the 2nd and 3rd and the favourites earlier defeat at the hands of Cowardofthecounty is not insurmountable form. Wathnan Racing have done well with their 2yos so far (50/1 3rd, 40/1 2nd, 18/1 12th, 22/1 1st, 4/1 13th & 28/1 21st) and it's a similar story for trainer Archie Watson whos 2yos have finished 2nd at 40/1, 5th at 22/1 & 4th at 100/1. Aesterius is 2nd choice for Wathnan on jockey bookings but he cost £380k and looked decent winning an average race on debut at Bath.
19 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot

Hawaiian

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Hawaiian was very disappointing as 6/5f for the National Stakes last time out but connections suggest he didn't handle testing conditions and given his knee action and breeding he may well be better on better ground. The selection did make a winning debut depsite a slight stumble and signs of greeness when hitting the front at Newbury, that form received a boost yesterday with the 2nd and 3rd finishing 1st and 8th (nearest finish bt 2l) in the Coventry and fwiw the 4th won next time out with the 5th (split The Actor and Al Qudra with Symbol of Honour in behind) and 7th finishing narrow 2nds on their next respective start. Trainer Richard Hannon has his stable in good form and had a Royal Ascot winner for these connection yesterday.
1 member found this comment useful
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Holloway Boy

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionOdds taken at 19.00

@19.00

Win

64

Holloway Boy has previous here, having won the Chesham (on debut) and finishing 4th in the Jersey. He tries a handicap this time around and a mark of 105 looks pretty fair. The selection was readily dispatched on seasonal reappearance but that proved a decent race with the winner Charyn now a G1 winner. Last time out Holloway Boy finished 3rd at Thirsk in a conditions event and the handicapper dropped him 4lbs from that race but perhaps that was better form than it looked at the time with the winner Shartash following up at listed level beating solid yardsticks Pogo and Witch Hunter, the runner-up Ramazan finished 2nd in the Victoria Cup (the 5th Rhoscolyn has also won since but returned to a lower level). The return to Ascot and faster ground should see an improved performance (form on worse than good: 3943 beat a combined 35ish lengths - form on good or better: 12234 beat a combined 5ish lengths in defeats - not a perfect comparison as two runs (=18ish lengths) on heavy/soft were in G1 company).
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Inspiral

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Auguste Rodin and Inspiral both have tendancy to throw in a bad run which is a concern for any backers but they look clear of the field on their best form. Inspiral has little form at the trip but did win the BC F&Ms over 1m2f on her only previous attempt (stays well at 1m), she was well below her best in the Lockinge but the Gosdens have maintained she was in need of the run and better is expected today. Auguste Rodin also is a little over-rated for me, he benefitted from less than stellar riding from his opposition in winning both the Irish Derby and Irish Champion and he got the dream trip in the BC Turf (runner-up the better horse imho).
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Royal Dress

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Rogue Millenium won this 12 months ago in arguably a better looking race and has probably got the best form in chasing home Free Wind and Tahiyra on seperate occasions last season, her seasonal reappearance can be forgiven as she didn't get a clear run but stable form has been mixed all season and Laurel is clearly well thought of too so i'll chance an e/w bet instead. Royal Dress looks the obvious one for me. She was desperately unlucky in a messy race at Epsom last time out (stopped multiple times in her run) and i'd be confident of her reversing form with Breege (finished ahead on seasonal reappearance) and confirming form with Running Lion (all available at similar prices). Royal Dress is still unexposed having ran just 3 times at the trip and she looks to have improved a load for the change of stable and application of a hood. Fast ground is a slight question mark, as her best has come on soft (although she has placed twice on GF from 3 starts previously).
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Highbury

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.00

Lose

-10

Illinois and Meydaan holds claims on their proximity to Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Derby Trial but I don't trust that bare form as the winner did a lot wrong and has progressed since. Birdman won a warm maiden (Highbury in 3rd) but I don't think he's crying out for this step up in trip and he has to confirm form with Highbury who looked to improve massively when slamming Himalayan Heights (2nd splitting the pair in that maiden) by 7 lengths. The better he went, the better he looked and that form is solid with the 2nd and 4th going in next time and 3rd and 6th being beat a head in their next starts. The fact Ryan Moore is booked for Illinois is a slight concern but getting off the highest rated runner would be hard to argue and even so Wayne Lordan is an able deputy riding at at 28% SR in the last 14 days.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Miss Rascal

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@11.00

Win

25

Not much form to go off of here and even less collateral form to compare them with but I really think Make Haste beat nothing on debut (the 3rd, 5th,6th,7th,8th,9th and 10th have failed to get with 6 lengths of a winner subsequently) and i'd fully expect Truly Enchanting to head the market come off time but whether she has the speed for this on fast ground i'm not sure. Miss Rascal has a pair of runs in the book and her debut effort can be massively upgraded, she was slow in to stride, green and not knocked about but more significantly was up against a massive on-speed bias at Newmarket that day. Last time out the selection showed the benefit of that experience to readily make all over C&D. The 2nd and 3rd both won their next start and the well beat 5th and 6th finished 2nd in each of their next starts, so the form has a little bit of substance to it. Paul Cole knows what it takes to win this race and thinks this a bit of her. Being drawn away from the speed is a slight concern.
1 member found this comment useful
18 June 2024
17:40 5:40 Royal Ascot

Botanical

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Botanical is lightly raced after just 6 career starts and he has looked fully deserved of being upped 10lbs for each of his latest wins, both coming in ready fashion. His earlier form when behind Measured Time also looks good, considering that horse is now a dual G1 winner. Rattling fast ground is a concern, given the fact he is Lope De Vega, was slightly disappointing on that surface here at the back end of last season and was pulled out of his intended Chester comeback for GF ground but he may prove in time the cliche group horse in a handicap and i'm willing to chance him on the ground. Stall 13 could also be a blessing given there has been no winner drawn 1-2-3-4 since 2007 (Torito drawn 2) and 3 of the last 5 winners have come from stall 11 or 12.
1 member found this comment useful

Cemhaan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

Cemhaan has ran at the last two Royal Ascots, finishing a good 3rd behind Vauban over 1m6f last year and 7th of 18 behind Candleford over 1m4f the year prior (better than bare form - short of room and no clear run multiple times). So to see him back at 1m2f this year might be a bit of a head scratcher but he produced a clear career best over 1m3f at Kempton in April and he backed that up over 1m4f at Newbury in a G3, considering he showed good early speed and was keen on both occasions, the step back to 1m2f looks worth exploring. His latest form has been franked with the runner-up winning his next start and the 6th finishing a close up 2nd. A wide draw probably isn't ideal for a front-runner but it's not a negative in the whole (last 2 winners (and 8 of the last 16) came from double figure draws).
1 member found this comment useful
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Pied Piper

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Pied Piper hasn't been seen on the flat very often since joining this stable and being sent over hurdles but when he does run, he rarely runs a bad race. He was a close up 2nd in the Cesarewitch (3rd in his prep run for it) and 6th in this race 2 years ago behind a clearly well handicapped Coltrane (didn't get the clearest of runs either). He is carrying top weight and will likely be ridden for luck from stall 2 but I like the Jamie Spencer booking and although he is unlikely to be hiding anything from the handicapper, he is still fairly unexposed and must be treated as in good form, having finished a close up 3rd in the County hurdle when last seen
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Almaqam

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Almaqam has a good 10lbs to find with Guineas winner Notable Speech but he looks to be improving at a rate of knots. Softer ground might have been ideal but the price compensates and he won his only start on good ground to date. The selection was ultra-impressive in a near 4l win in the Heron Stakes at Sandown, beating a field of 100ish rated rivals but the 3rd Sons And Lovers had previous finished a similar distance behind Haatem in Craven and considering that horse gave Rosallion plenty to think about in the Irish Guineas and finished 3rd in the Newmarket equivilant, that may prove a bit of underrated form. Trainer Ed Walker rarely gets first time out winners so a debut defeat is easily dismissed and on the subject of the trainer he has been in reasonable form, sending out 4 winners from his last 27 (inc. 7 seconds).
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Regional

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 5.50 takenBOG

@7.00

Win

5

Big Evs could be the star sprinter we desperately need, having won 5 of his 7 career starts but smart 2yos often find older company tougher and his comeback win didn't really prove anything as he won as expected against inferior opposition, bossing this field could be tougher. Regional has his own questions to answer regarding whether he wants 5f or 6f, his 5th in the Nunthorpe would suggest the latter but he has plenty of early speed (as he showed with a pair of 5f wins last season and he was in the firing line all the way in the Sprint Cup) and as the likes of Golden Pal & Battaash showed, the 5f at Ascot can take a bit of getting. The selection comes in to this top rated, although he does have to give weight away to fillies and 3yos. Trainer Ed Bethell has sent out 3 winners from his last 13 runners.
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Facteur Cheval

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.33

Lose

-50

I've gone back and forth on this several times, Big Rock was flattered by his QEII win on soft ground but he had excuses for his Lockinge defeat and is starting to look overpriced. Audience produced a career best in the Lockinge and I think it was less of a fluke than people suggest as he had good 7f form on faster surfaces behind the likes of Kinross prior to a couple of lesser efforts on soft ground but final preference is for Facteur Cheval. The selection has been labelled a bit of a mud-lark himself but his Meydan win on good was a career best and I was very taken with how strongly he travelled in to the race (form has been franked too by the 2nd and 4th). He finished ahead of Charyn on their only meeting last year in the Sussex and he did best of the rest behind Big Rocks runaway success in the QEII
1 member found this comment useful
15 June 2024
15:00 3:00 York

Real Dream

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

Real Dream is up 6lbs for his reappearance defeat but that form has been boosted by the winner Maxi King running well (when badly off at the weights) in a G3 - now rated 16lbs higher than that day and the 3rd Relentless Voyager (3 3/4l behind Real Dream) won cosily at Epsom two weeks ago (he meets Real Dream on 2lbs worse terms). The step back up to 1m6f shouldn't be an issue, having won and placed over the trip last season and arguably the only blemish on his record is a 19th in the Ebor. That is a slight concern considering it's the same C&D today but he'd previously run well here over 1m4f and maybe just the combination of a faster ground, classier opposition and a more prominent ride than when showing the best of his form conspired against him (or maybe he just had an off day) - Regardless I'm always willing to forgive one bad run. He does have a change of jockey today with Oisin Orr taking over from Ryan Moore, but Orr is in good form having ridden 9 winners from his last 38 rides.
14:40 2:40 Sandown

Adaay In Devon

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@3.25

Win

112

Several of these have a bit to prove. Nighteyes and No Half Measures are both in excellent form but have a fair bit to find still on ratings, Flora Of Bermuda wasn't the most consistent last season and it remains to be seen how she's trained on, given she blew the start on reappearance. The rest of the field have pieces of decent form but have been struggling recently with the exception of Adaay In Devon. The selection has progressed to be competitive at listed and group level the last thrice and she comes in as top rated (although not best off at the weights due to a 3lb penalty). Stall 3 should mean she can take a good early position (crucial at Sandown) and she has proved herself versatile regarding both ground (Winner on Hvy, Sft, GS & Gd), track (winner at 5 different tracks including Bath and Goodwood both tricky undulating courses) and trip (winner of her last 2 starts over 5f and group placed over 6f).
14:25 2:25 York

Woven

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Michael Dods has an excellent strike-rate when running his horses at 'G1 tracks' and to me Wocen ticks a lot of boxes. The selection is still 4lbs above his last winning mark but is just 1lb higher than when beat a short head on seasonal reappearance and his 4th last time out, at this track (over 6f) just added to an already strong course record (form reading: 14044 - with those 3 4th place fiinishes all coming in 16+ runner handicaps). He shaped as though he'd appreciate the step back to 7f that day too and indeed 2 of his 3 career wins have come over 7f. The ground should be ideal too with 5 of his best 6 career performances (per RPRs) coming on good to soft or soft.
1 member found this comment useful
03 June 2024
16:50 4:50 Listowel

Battleoverdoyen

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Lose

-50

Battleoverdoyen isn't as good as he once was but he managed 5th in last seasons Topham and his PTP win over Jay Bee Why in January is of a reasonable standard. His form since has been a mixed bag but he should appreciate the drop back to 3m here and on that form holds Vaucelet (who is worse off at the weights - not including jockey claims). Prior to that the selection was a stumbled and unseat in the race won by Early Doors (too early to say how Battleoverdoyen would have finished).
1 member found this comment useful
01 June 2024
17:50 5:50 Epsom Downs

Apollo One

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 6.50 on 31/05 at 21:560.00 deduction for Batal Dubai@19.00 withdrawn at 12:150.10 deduction for Russet Gold @8.000 withdrawn at 13:49R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.50 x (1-0.1) = 5.95

@5.95

Lose

-1

Apollo One has work to do to uphold last years form with the 3rd Mr Wagyu off 11lbs worse terms but he has maintained his excellent form. Having finished 2nd in the race 12 months ago he then went on to finish 2nd in the Wokingham & Stewards Cup (winning the race on his side on each occasion), was 3rd in the Beverley Bullet and again 2nd on his season reappearance (15 runner handicap). A rare blemish on his scorecard at York can probably be ignored as he ducked away at the start and even so was 4th in his group of 11. All ground comes alike, stall 3 is a little awkward but shouldn't cause any major issues and although he competes off a near career high mark (runs off 102 - has been rated as high as 104) his last time out effort was actually a career best on RPRs. All things being equal very hard to see him out of the frame at least.
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Ancient Wisdom

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

I'd need to see more from City of Troy having ran so poorly in the Guineas and considering connections the fact he is readily available at 3/1ish suggests they aren't fully convinced he is as good as his mark. I don't get the hype about Los Angeles at all, he won a weak G1 at 2 and 2 lengths covered the field in his Derby trial. Ancient Wisdom didn't even win his Derby trial but he should come on for the run and appreciate the return to softer conditions. His 2yo form stacks up pretty well too. His only defeat came at the hands of Rosallion (on ground faster than ideal) and he readily dispatched Ambiente Friendly when they met in the Autumn Stakes. His G1 Futurity win suggests he should hold God's Window & Deira Mile on form and 2nd Devil's Point (German 2000 Guineas winner) as well as 5th & 6th Dancing Gemini (French 2000 Guineas 2nd and 4th) have franked the form this season. Connections had the Oaks runner-up yesterday.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Epsom Downs

Dream Composer

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@11.00

Win

300

I was on Silky Wilkie in this race last year and for my money he was desperately unlucky and his claims of redemption are obvious considering he faces last years 3rd Clarendon House off 19lbs better terms but at the prices i'll switch to Dream Composer who has long looked a horse well handicapped. The selection won a good race at Sandown last season beating Korker and Clarendon House and was an unlucky 3rd in the Shergar Cup Sprint behind Rogue Lightning (now rated 10lbs higher) but he has been unable to capatalise on his falling mark this season but he produced his best form in a while in defeat last week at Goodwood going down by a neck (under this jockey). The sharp track might be against him having previous been tried at 6f but he should be keeping on better than most and he appears to handle all ground equally.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Epsom Downs

Mashadi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Mashadi has a terrible case of second-itis having finished 2nd on 7 of his 9 career starts (could argue 8/9 as when 5th at Newmarket on his penultimate start he was 2nd in his group) but he is certain to fall over the line in-front at some stage as he doesn't appear to have an attitude problem or anything of the sort (5 times he has been beaten a neck or less). He is strong travelling type who could appreciate the drop back to 5f here and although he has been nudged up 3lbs for his latest 2nd at Ascot, he pulled 2 1/2 clear of the 3rd and is only 2lbs higher than when 5th beaten 3 lengths by Woodhay Wonder who followed up himself off a 5lb higher mark (the 6th also won his next start).
1 member found this comment useful
31 May 2024
17:40 5:40 Epsom Downs

The X O

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 26.00 takenBOG

@29.00

Win

115

The X O showed quite progressive form last season and having peaked with a 2nd at Ascot (splitting Cold Case & Bradsell) he has been quite hard to place (went up 10lbs) but he has now dropped back to a mark of 95. A look through the form book would also suggest he is a little better than his form figures (short of room when 5th last time out, rushed up mid-race when 7th at Lingfield, hung badly right when last of 6 at Lingfield). Taking on 7f's today for the first time as well as the tricky track are concerns enough but Rossa Ryan is a good jockey booking (takes over from 5lb claimer) and John Ryan's last runner was a winner.
17:10 5:10 Epsom Downs

Native American

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 30/05 at 23:430.20 deduction for Pandoras Gift@4.33 withdrawn at 08:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.20) = 6.60

@6.60

Win

3

Zoum Zoum's Greenham 2nd has all sorts of question marks over it, as it was a bunched finished and featured more 6f horses than 7f. Balmacara has looked good winning weak races but needs improvement on the bare form and has twice been ruled out for ground lately. Pandora's Gift hasn't been seen on turf, Evade was well held lto and lacks a recent run. Native American is the selection. He was a smart 2yo who finished 6th behind Rosallion in the Lagardere and his 8th in the Fielden can be forgiven as the track was massively favouring pace and Native American was last early, he was also a bit keen stepped up trip (returns to 7f from 1m1f)
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Rubies Are Red

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

It has long since been assumed that Ylang Ylang is crying out for today's extra distance. Add in market confidence to the fact she has the highest rating & soft ground form but her Fillies Mile form hasn't really been franked as anything special and i'm worried she's just a bit one paced. Stablemate Rubies Are Red is still a maiden and has plenty to find on form but she did well to get as close to You Got To Me as she did at Lingfield having trailed more than a dozen lengths on straightening up. The selection has looked to be learning on the job on all 3 starts to date but her form is progressive (77-83-97 RPRs), stall 6 is ideal and she does handle softer ground.
1 member found this comment useful

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