The Snail

Interesting, with a few live runners, that Joseph O'Brien put up Home By The Lee as his best hope. I think he is probably a bit overpriced.

So often Mullins picks this up, but not always with the favourites, and I like Aqua Force. Mark Walsh isn't my favourite jockey, but on the flat or hurdles, I can trust him a bit more. Aqua Force looked good in victory last time and has a very handy mare's allowance, which can prove decisive here.

There's nothing like a bit of momentum. Last year the Skeltons seemed to pick up every handicap going, and I wonder if the win yesterday bodes well for the Russells. Traprain Law is lightly raced and comes here improving on a nice weight.

Jonbon has looked good this season, and this finally looks like a chance to bag the biggest prize in the 2m sphere. However, the Irish have a couple of youngsters who will test his jumping, and at the price, he is the shorty I'm willing to take on today. Solness will hopefully take them out hard, and as we saw yesterday at Cheltenham, that can lead to surprises. His Irish form over the opponents here is rock solid. He is still improving, and I think he is overpriced.

Lightly raced, which screams a plot. The money has come this morning, and the price has shortened. Henderson's horses appear in decent form from yesterday's showing. Hard to ignore this one.

Plenty of live outsiders and this one appeals to me. Tidy flat form and has been gradually improving over fences. Nice low weight and could come good today.

Ballyburn has a lot of ticks in the right boxes with course form, solid jumping, and proven at the distance. Hard to oppose.

Would love the New Lion to win for the UK, but Challow winners have such an appalling record in this race with no winner from 21 attempts that I just have to side with the Irish raider. The heavily Irish-themed fields in the Supreme and hurdle races in general suggest the Irish hurdle form is stronger, and therefore the favourite, unbeaten and impressive, is where I end up.

Almost impossible to build any strong idea of likely winners given the change in race from graded to handicap. Now Is The Hour is lightly raced, runs well over the long distance, and comes from off the pace nicely, with a jockey who has experience in similar marathon tests and knows what it takes to win here, coming with a run at the right time.

Whilst Stencil probably boasts the best form, and French horses under Nicholls show good returns, I'm going to throw in a bit of an outsider. Despite running for an English yard, Turn and Finish was Irish trained up until recently, which sort of fits the bill for the Irish winning streak. He was narrowly beaten by former stablemate Puturhandstogether in his last run in Ireland, and has a 5lbs pull thanks to his exceptionally iffy performance at 2/9 in winning LTO. That said, before then he was on an upward curve, and a return to the Irish form, in this big runner handicap which so often suits the Irish style and development, could run nicely for a place.

Gordon Elliott often targets this race, with 3 in the last 7, and I wouldn't be put off by Wendrock carrying top weight. The winner often comes from something nearer the top of the racecard, and you can put a line through the 7 LTO as that was in Grade 1 company. The win before that is much more accurate form. No winner had previously run here, and the Irish seem to have a stranglehold on the race, even though Mullins is yet to win.

Constitution Hill vs. BrighterDaysAhead is a mouth-watering clash, with the excellent State Man adding an extra dimension. If 3 places, then State Man would, of course, be shorter but offers EW value if anything happens to the big two. Ultimately, it will come down to the unbeaten master against the new young pretender. Mares have a wonderful record in this race, and 7 lbs is potentially a huge help to the improving lady. But whether this is my heart over my head, I just can't back against C. Hill. His chances were talked down on his return; he won. He was less smooth on his return to Cheltenham LTO, but he won, and one would expect that Henderson has been slowly working him to peak now. I think we are looking at Sprinter Sacre levels of emotion and noise if he comes out on top today.

Interestingly, in a race where novices often do well, there aren't a huge number running. So my eye is switched to the Coral Cup at Newbury, which has given us 5 of the last 11 winners. Broadway Boy looks the most likely, having registered his best RPR in that race. He also brings decent Cheltenham form, having run and won here. Henry's Friend is the other pick from that race as he runs in cheekpieces, fitting the trend of 9 of the last 13 wearing headgear. Vittorino is the third from that race but has been discounted due to his poor Cheltenham form.

Unsurprisingly, the market is dominated by the potentially exceptional Kopek Des Bordes. The manner of his LTO win was high class, and he is rightly short. However, only C.Hill has won here with less than three hurdle runs in the last 17 years, and while it's not impossible that Kopek can be as big a superstar, it's enough of a trend for me to risk taking him on (with perhaps a small saver on in my back pocket!). Usually, winners are 5 or 6, so I'm happy to rule out Workahead and Wil Munnery, and beaten bumper horses (Romeo) also tend to struggle. So despite the winner usually coming from the head of the market (1 winner in the last 12 over 9s), I've looked deeper to find value. Karbau fits the brief with a win LTO once dropped to a decent distance, and whilst he also falls foul of the hurdles run stat, I think he offers EW value. In the event that Kopek blows out, I'm risking a win bet here.