ironmike147501

I have a lifelong passion for sports and interest in statistical analysis, which I try to combine to give highly informative, reasoned and profitable betting opinion

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ironmike147501's Tips History

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17 June 2024
20:00 Austria v France

Yes (BTTS)

Both Teams to Score

100 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-100

Austria reached the last 16 of the delayed EURO 2020 finals before losing in extra time to eventual champions Italy. They come into these championships largely unfancied and will struggle to escape a very difficult group containing France and the Netherlands. However, they are arguably a better side than three years ago and have only lost once in their last sixteen matches. The Austrians have also found the back of the net in their last seventeen total outings, with the last time they failed to notch coming in a 2-0 defeat to France in a September 2022 Nations League clash. The French arrive in Germany having won the World Cup six years ago and reached the Final in 2022. They only managed to keep a clean sheet once in their seven games in Qatar though and have gained just two shutouts in their last eight at the European Championship finals. The strength of the French side is undoubtedly their attacking talent and Les Bleus have scored in sixteen of their last eighteen total fixtures. However, they're also suspect defensively on the big stage which Austria could exploit. All things considered I think both teams to score is great value here.
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16 June 2024
21:45 US Open

Ludvig Aberg

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Ludvig Aberg only turned professional in June 2023 and has enjoyed a meteoric rise which has seen him ascend to No.6 in the world rankings. The Swede won the European Masters in September, which already cemented his place as a wildcard pick for the winning European Ryder Cup team. He then won his maiden PGA Tour title in November when taking the RSM Classic by four strokes. 2024 has provided the 24-year-old with some more excellent results which have included an 8th place at the Players Championship in March, as well as runners-up finishes in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM and the Masters. That second place finish at Augusta was Aberg's major debut and although he was unable to make the cut in last month's PGA Championship, his fitness was questionable after having to withdraw from the Wells Fargo Championship the week before with a knee injury. Questions will remain about that this week, however, the player has downplayed this and a T5 at the Memorial last week suggests it's not presently having too much of an effect. All things considered I'll happily back Ludvig each-way this week.

Rory McIlroy

25 EW

@12.00

Win

30

Rory McIlroy has enjoyed a very consistent 2024 so far and has been victorious twice when winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Shane Lowry at the end of April and the Wells Fargo Championship in his next outing a couple of weeks later. Of his thirteen tournaments played this year, McIlroy also has two more top five finishes and seven additional top 25 placings. Given the nature of the US Open there are reasons to oppose McIlroy to win this week, as none of his thirty-nine professional stroke play victories has seen him card a winning total of less than ten under par, and the best score is unlikely to get near that this week. There's no doubt Rory is at his best when overpowering golf courses and he will have to reverse a career-long trend here to gain victory where grinding pars will be more prominent than holing birdies. However, that said he has an excellent record in previous US Open's, winning the event in 2011 and between 2019 and 2023 has finished T9, T8, T7, T5 and 2nd. With such previous form in this tournament, I'm happy to back the World No.3 each-way this week.

Scottie Scheffler

25 EW

@4.00

Lose

-50

Scottie Scheffler's win at Memorial on Sunday continued an extraordinary run which has seen him claim victory in five of his last eight tournaments, as well as two T2's, with his worst result a T8 at the PGA Championship last month. The 27-year-old is now firmly established as the World No.1, having also won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Players Championship, Masters and RBC Heritage in the last three months. He leads a plethora of stats on the PGA Tour including scoring average, birdie average, greens in regulation, strokes gained total, putting average and bogey avoidance. It's hard to believe Scheffler has only two Majors (both Masters titles) to his name given his dominance in recent times, however, his record in the Grand Slam events is still phenomenal. In his last thirteen majors, the American has finished inside the top ten on ten occasions and ended the last three US Opens in T7 (2021), T2 (2022), and 3rd (2023). His price for this tournament is disappointingly low but understandable given his form. As such it would be a big surprise to not see him challenging towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Xander Schauffele

25 EW

@11.00

Win

25

Xander Schauffele ended a run of nearly two years without a victory when he claimed the PGA Championship last month. Despite the lengthy wait, ultimately it wasn't a surprise as the world No.2 has been remarkably consistent in 2024 with ten top tens gained in his fourteen outings. Even before winning his first major title at Valhalla nearly four weeks ago, Schauffele had a decent record in the Grand Slam events, especially the US Open where he finished inside the top seven every year from 2017-2021 and T14 and T10 in the last two years. The 30-year-old's PGA Tour stats in 2024 certainly show he has the battling qualities to continue his excellent results in this tournament which will unlikely see low scoring. He ranks 14th in greens in regulation, 16th in strokes gained putting, 5th in total driving, 2nd in strokes gained total, 2nd in bogey and 3-putt avoidance and 1st in scrambling, so is well set up to deal with a course where accurate approaches are critical to greens described as 'borderline' in the run-up to the tournament. I don't think Schauffele's a one major wonder and wouldn't be surprised if he was victorious on Sunday.
14:00 Poland v Netherlands

Netherlands

100 WIN

@1.57

Win

57

Poland suffered a poor qualifying campaign for EURO 2024, primarily due to their performances on the road with defeats in Czechia. Moldova and Albania. They managed to book their place in Germany thanks to the Nations League play-offs, which saw them edge past Wales on penalties. The Poles are on an eight match unbeaten run, however, six of those were on home soil and their only win on the road came with a 2-0 success in the Faroe Islands. Netherlands have an excellent major tournament record in Germany, reaching the World Cup final in 1974 and winning the Euros in 1988. They made the quarter-finals of the World Cup in 2022 before losing on penalties to eventual champions Argentina and finished fourth in the Nations League last year. The Dutch have won eight of their last ten matches since then, keeping clean sheets in seven of those, with their only defeats coming 2-1 to France and Germany. A vastly improved defence over the last year combined with an already prolific strike force should see the Netherlands go well in Germany. Poland are always competitive, but I believe they're the weakest team in Group D and will lose here.
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15 June 2024
20:00 Italy v Albania

Italy

100 WIN

@1.40

Win

40

Italy were victorious in the delayed Euro 2020 finals, however, they were heavily affected by retirements following that tournament and surprisingly failed to qualify for Qatar in 2022. , They do now appear to be back on track having made it to Germany and the Azzuri finished third in the 2023 Nations League finals after beating the Netherlands 3-2 in the play-off. Performances have remained positive since then and the Italians have only lost one of their last ten matches. They are undefeated in their last six, conceding just three goals and keeping four clean sheets in their last half dozen games. Albania did  well to qualify for Euro 2024 from a group including Poland and Czechia, however, their best form always came on their home soil. The only away fixture the Albanians have won in their last last eleven on the road was a 3-1 victory at the Faroe Islands a year ago and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those outings. I don't expect Italy to repeat their heroics of 2021, but they should have enough defensive quality to escape the group and enough in attack to edge past Albania here.
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14 June 2024
20:00 Germany v Scotland

Germany

100 WIN

@1.28

Win

28

Germany have reached at least the semi-finals of three of the last four European Championships and home advantage, as well as good recent form should ensure they go close again this year. A group stage exit at the World Cup two years ago and poor subsequent friendly results saw Hansi Flick sacked in September 2023. However, despite his replacement Julian Nagelsmann suffering a couple of initial disappointments, the Germans are unbeaten in 2024 so far, winning three and drawing one of their four matches this year. This has included friendly victories over France and Netherlands sides both comfortably ranked inside the world's top ten. Scotland won their first five qualifying fixtures for EURO 24, but their form has been very poor since, with a 2-0 victory over Gibraltar last week representing their sole success in their last nine total matches. Five of those nine were losses which included comprehensive defeats to England (1-3), France (1-4) and the Netherlands (0-4), as well as a 1-0 loss to Northern Ireland in March. The Scots have never escaped the group stage at a European Championships and I'd expect them to struggle here as well.
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