Kazeka1886
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Kazeka1886's Tips History
30 April 2025
23:45 WAS Nationals @ PHI Phillies
PHI Phillies
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Phillies are 16-13, of which 10-4 at home, while Nationals are 13-17, of which 4-10 on the road. Phillies will start Sanchez, who is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA, while Nationals will go with Irvin, who is 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA, but he is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA in the last 5 starts versus Phillies. Nationals bullpen has a 7.47 ERA, while Phillies bullpen is slightly better with a 5.25 ERA, so got to give the edge to Phillies here and back them to win this one.
Over 8.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
The Phillies went over this total in 10 of their last 14 games, while the Nationals went over this total in 4 of their last 5 games, of which the last 3 games averaged 17.3 total runs per game. They went over this total in 7 of their last 8 head-to-head meetings, with 3 of 4 of this season seeing 10 runs or more. They have the 2 worst bullpens in the league, with the Phillies having a 5.25 ERA and the Nationals having a 7.47 ERA. So, got to expect a heavy scoring contest here and take the over.
23:40 CHI Cubs @ PIT Pirates
CHI Cubs
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
Cubs are 18-12 after winning 6 of their last 9 games, while the Pirates are 11-19 after losing 7 of their last 10 games. Cubs will start Boyd, who is 2-2 with a 2.54 ERA, while the Pirates will go with Mlodzinski, who is struggling with a 1-3 record and a 6.95 ERA. Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs scored per game in their last 9 games, while the Pirates are averaging just 2.5 runs scored per game in their last 6 games. So, got to give the edge to the Cubs here and back them to win this one.
23:35 NY Yankees @ BAL Orioles
NY Yankees
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Yankees are 18-12 after winning 3 of their last 4 games, while Orioles are 11-18 after losing 7 of their last 9 games. Yankees will start Carrasco, who is 2-1 with a 5.26 ERA. He struggled early but seems to be settling as he allowed 1 or fewer runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his last 5 starts versus the Orioles, who will go with Povich, who is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA. Yankees have the 7th best bullpen in the league with a 3.06 ERA, while Orioles have the 4th worst with a 4.84 ERA. So, got to give the edge to Yankees here and back them to win this one.
Over 9.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Orioles produced 9 overs in 13 home games this season with 2 pushes. Four of their last 5 home games went over this total, and 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings in which they hosted the Yankees. Orioles will start struggling Povich, who has a 5.04 ERA, while the Yankees will go with Carrasco, who has a 5.26 ERA. So, expect another higher-scoring contest between these two division rivals, which should result in another over.
23:10 MIN Twins @ CLE Guardians
MIN Twins
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
The Twins are 13-17, but they have been much better of late, winning 6 of their last 8 games. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 16-13, having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Twins will start Lopez, who is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, while the Guardians will go with the struggling Ortiz, who is 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA. So, alongside the Twins having a slightly better bullpen with a 3.38 ERA compared to the Guardians' 3.72 ERA, I've simply got to give a slight edge to the Twins and back them to win this one.
21:46 9:46 Romford
Raha Gem
Daily Races
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Raha Gem has a superb 33% win rate as she won 10 of her 30 starts, climbing from the ranks of A8 grade all the way to get her first start in A1 here. She is in her favorite trap 1, and with her usual fast start, you have to expect her to be at the front. A victory isn't hard to imagine as the final result.
21:28 9:28 Romford
Fiacres Pal
Daily Races
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
Faicres Pal has 1 win in the first 3 starts, which came in a rather hard OR grade at a price of 5/1. He showed he has the speed to be involved come the finish line. This price in a weaker, smaller field makes him a value choice to win.
21:23 9:23 Yarmouth
Rolo Sabbath
Daily Races
50 WIN
@2.80
Win
90
Rolo Sabbath started off with 4 races in A4 getting 1 win and showcasing very fast speed that can't be matched by most of this field so got to expect him to continue strong and possibly get another win.
21:16 9:16 Perry Barr
Flyhigh Honcho
Daily Races
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Flyhigh Honcho has a very solid 23% win rate with 11 wins in 47 races. He started 6 previous times in this A6 grade and won 3 times with 1 runner-up finish. As he is usually in higher classes, going down in class here should see him win again.
21:11 9:11 Romford
Ballyboy Sean
Daily Races
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Ballyboy Sean has a solid 21% win rate, and he won his first start in this A6 grade. He spends most of his time in upper grades, so going back down to the weaker A6 should see him establish the lead and get another win.
21:10 LA Angels @ SEA Mariners
Over 8.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
The Mariners are averaging 6.8 runs scored per game in the last 9 games. They will start Hancock, who has a 7.71 ERA, while the Angels will go with Anderson, who has a 5.96 ERA in 5 previous starts versus the Mariners. So, you have to expect a high-scoring game here and take the over.
21:10 SF Giants @ SD Padres
SD Padres
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.71
Win
35
Padres are 18-11, of which 13-4 at home, while Giants are 19-11, of which 10-7 on the road. Padres will start King, who is 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 6 starts this season, while Giants will go with Roupp, who is 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA in 5 starts. Padres have the best bullpen in the league with a 1.66 ERA, while Giants' bullpen has a 2.41 ERA. So, got to give a slight edge to Padres pitching-wise that should see them win at home again.
20:59 8:59 Perry Barr
Amka Wolf
Daily Races
50 WIN
@4.00
Win
75
Amka Wolf has a strong 31% win rate with 4 wins in 13 races, with 2 wins in the last 4 starts. She is a very promising young prospect that could easily add another win in this weaker company.
20:54 8:54 Romford
Hollywood Lilly
Daily Races
50 WIN
@3.25
Win
112
Hollywood Lilly got off to a fast start in her young career with 2 wins in her first 4 starts, showing some really good speed. This should see her involved in this one. I like her to extend her hot start with another win.
20:52 8:52 Harlow
Aero Albie
Daily Races
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.50 on 30/04 at 19:18 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 3.33 used instead of 2.50 taken BOG
@4.33
Win
166
Aero Albie has an excellent 28% win rate with 12 wins in 43 races. She has been very consistent with 4 wins and 3 runner-up finishes in the last 12 starts. So, you have to expect her to be involved come the finish line and quite possibly adding to her winning totals.
20:10 ATL Braves @ COL Rockies
ATL Braves
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.36
Lose
-50
Braves are 14-15 after getting red-hot lately and winning 9 of their last 11 games, while Rockies are the worst team in the league with an awful 4-25 record, having lost 8 games in a row. Braves will have Sale taking the mound against Dollander for the Rockies, which should be a significant advantage for the way better side in Braves, who also won the first 2 games of this series. So, how red-hot they have been, simply got to like Braves to extend that hot stretch with another win here.
ATL Braves -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Lose
-50
Braves beat Rockies by 3 and by 6 runs in the first 2 games of this series. Once again, they should have a pitching advantage, starting Sale against Dollander for the Rockies. So, got to expect Braves to dominate this game as well and win handily in the end.
Over 10.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Both of these two teams will start struggling pitchers as the Rockies will go with rookie Dollander, who has a 7.91 ERA in 4 starts this season, with 2 starts at home seeing him allow 13 runs in 9 innings of work. On the other side, the Braves will start Sale, who has a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts this season, having allowed 3 runs or more in 3 of his 4 road starts. Their last 9 head-to-head meetings played in Denver average a total of 12.6 runs per game, so you have to expect a heavy scoring contest here and take the over.
20:10 MIA Marlins @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
Dodgers are 20-10, of which 14-3 at home, while Marlins are 12-17, of which 4-9 on the road. Dodgers won the first 2 games of this series, and they will have Gonsolin starting against struggling Quantrill for the Marlins. So, got to expect Dodgers to control this game and win again.
LA Dodgers -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Win
31
Dodgers are 20-10, of which a dominant 14-3 at home, while Marlins are 12-17, of which a poor 4-9 on the road. Dodgers will start Gonsolin, who will make his first start of the year after missing the whole last year. He was a decent 8-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, Marlins will go with Quantrill, who is 2-2 with a 7.83 ERA, and he is 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA in the last 5 starts versus Dodgers. So, after Dodgers won the first 2 games of this series, outscoring Marlins by 22-8, you simply have to like the home side to win very handily here.
Over 10.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
The Dodgers went over this total in 5 of the last 6 home games, while the Marlins went over this total in their last 7 road games. They combined for 13 and 17 runs in the first 2 games of this series. The Dodgers will start Gonsolin, who will make his first appearance since 2023 when he had a 4.98 ERA. The Marlins will go with Quantrill, who has a 7.83 ERA and against the Dodgers has been woefully bad, going 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA in the last 5 starts versus the team from LA. Combined with Gonsolin allowing 10 runs in just 3.1 innings in his last start versus the Marlins, and neither side having that good of a bullpen, you simply have to expect another heavy scoring game, which should bring in the over in the end.
20:00 Barcelona v Inter Milan
Pedri
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Pedri scored 6 goals in all competitions this season, including the first goal in the game over the weekend in the Copa del Rey final versus Real Madrid. He is playing well and getting involved more offensively, which could easily see him on the end of a chance and potentially opening the score.
Frenkie de Jong
Player to be Booked
Frenkie de Jong earned 2 yellow cards in the CL this season. He has been way more aggressive lately, getting booked in 4 of his last 8 starts in all competitions. So, going against Inter, that will look to play on counterattacks, you've got to fancy Frenkie needing to stop some of those with fouls, which could get him in trouble and result in a booking.
19:58 7:58 Harlow
Rapido Drops
Daily Races
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
Rapido Drops has a very solid 25% win rate in over 75 races he has done. He started 7 races in this D3 grade with 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes as he spent most of his time in upper classes. So going back down to D3 should result in another strong showing and quite possibly a new win.
19:45 Blackpool v Birmingham
Birmingham & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
19:45 Chester v Buxton
Chester
19:45 Mansfield v Peterborough
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
19:44 7:44 Romford
Ericdatortoise
Daily Races
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Ericdatortoise has a really good 26% win rate with 9 wins in 34 races. He has been a standard A2 performer with 4 wins in A1 as well, while he won in his last 3 starts in this A3 grade. So, got to fancy him to use this drop in class to add another win to his tally.
19:39 7:39 Yarmouth
King Stevens
Daily Races
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 1.37 on 30/04 at 17:58 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 1.75 used instead of 1.37 taken BOG
@2.75
Win
88
King Stevens has a very good 24% win rate with more than 80 races under his belt. He defied a long absence with a win in his first run back, so he is in good shape. He is a standard A1 performer, so starting in A2 here should see him get one of his usual fast starts. Then, we can expect him to hold off any challengers for a new win.
19:33 7:33 Perry Barr
Tromora Janu
Daily Races
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Tromora Janu has an excellent 29% win rate with 12 wins in 41 races, most of which came in A3, with some coming in the shorter distance of D3. This will be a step down in class for him going to A4, so you have to expect him to be in the thick of things and quite possibly add to his winning tally.
19:27 7:27 Romford
Westwood Jewel
Daily Races
50 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-50
Westwood Jewel is off to a solid start to her young career with 3 wins in her first 12 starts for a 25% win rate. She won in A6 last time and had a decent showing in A4, so going down slightly to A5 should serve her well and see her back on the winning track.
19:10 DET Tigers @ HOU Astros
DET Tigers
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Tigers are 18-12 after winning 4 of the last 6 games, while Astros are 16-13 after winning 3 of their last 5 games. Tigers will start Jobe, who is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts this season, with the last 2 seeing him allow just 1 run over 11 innings of work. On the other side, Astros will give Blubaugh a chance for his MLB debut, and he hasn't been that great in the minors with a 2-2 record and 3.86 ERA this season. They have almost identical bullpen stats-wise, ranking as the 3rd and 4th best in the league, so you've got to feel like starters will decide this game. Then, you've got to give a slight edge to Tigers and back them to win this one.
19:04 7:04 Harlow
Jura Kaneco
Daily Races
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Jura Kaneco has a rock-solid 25% win rate in over 130 races she has done. She spent most of the time in D4 and A5 lately, with 4 wins in the last 8 starts in A5. So, going down to A6 is a drop in class that should see her use it to get another victory.
18:46 6:46 Harlow
Headford Oisin
Daily Races
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
Headford Oisin has a fantastic 38% win rate in his last 48 races with 18 wins. He has been an incredibly strong performer, mostly in D3 and D4 grades. He is in excellent form as of late with 3 wins and 3 runner-up finishes in the last 7 outings. Being the only wide runner here and being set for a clear run on the outside makes him a solid pick for a new win.
11:45 Tour de Romandie 2025 Stage 1
Matthew Brennan
Win Outright
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
This stage is 194.4 km long with 3081 m of total elevation in what is a rather odd-looking stage. It starts with a rather hard 1.8 km climb at a 10.9% average gradient. It is quite hilly terrain in the first half of the stage, but it levels off with about 70 km to go, which should leave enough time for the organization of the chase for sprint teams and eventually should finish in a sprint. Brennan is the fastest sprinter here, and he has been brilliant this spring, winning the Grand Prix de Denain and then adding 2 more stage wins at Volta a Catalunya, where he easily could have had 3 stage wins, having lost one sprint in a photo finish. He doesn't mind rolling terrain and goes very well uphill, so with the uphill part in the closing kilometers and a very solid-looking Team Visma Lease a Bike team around him to set up for a sprint, you simply have to like the young Briton to win this stage.
02:40 LA Angels @ SEA Mariners
Over 7.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
Mariners will start Miller in this one, who is 1-3 with a 4.21 ERA, while the Angels will go with Kochanowicz, who is 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA. Miller allowed 3 runs in 4.2 innings of work in his last start versus the Angels, while Kochanowicz allowed 5 runs in just 4 innings of work in his only previous start versus the Mariners. The Angels have the 4th worst bullpen in the league with a 4.95 ERA, while the Mariners' bullpen has a middling 3.69 ERA. So, got to expect runs in this one, and with the Mariners going over this total in 7 of their last 8 games, simply got to like the over here as well.
02:40 SF Giants @ SD Padres
Under 7.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
Giants stayed under this total in 4 of their last 5 games, while Padres stayed below this margin in 8 of their last 10 games. Giants will start Webb, who has been excellent this season with a 4-1 record and just a 1.98 ERA in his 6 starts. Padres will go with Pivetta, who has been even better with also a 4-1 record and just a 1.20 ERA in his 5 starts. They have the two best bullpens in the league, as Giants have a 2.30 ERA and Padres have an amazing 1.63 ERA. So, got to expect a pitching duel in this one, which should result in a lower scoring affair and bring in the under.
01:40 ATL Braves @ COL Rockies
ATL Braves
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Braves are 13-15 after getting red hot lately and winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Rockies are the worst team in the league with an awful 4-24 record, having lost the last 7 games. Braves will start Smith-Shawver, who is 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA, while the Rockies will go with the absolutely terrible Marquez, who is 0-4 with a 9.30 ERA, having allowed 6 runs or more in the last 3 starts. Braves won 17 of their last 21 head-to-head meetings, so got to like them to win this one as well.
Over 11.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Braves will start Smith-Shawver who is 0-2 with 4.61 ERA in 3 starts this season while Rockies will go with terrible Marquez who is 0-4 with 9.30 ERA allowing 4,6,7 and 6 runs in last 4 starts in which he pitched only total of 14.1 innings. Both have middle of the pack bullpens and their last 8 hth meetings played in Denver averaged 12.9 total runs per game so got to expect another high scoring contest here and take the over.
00:40 MIL Brewers @ CHI White Sox
MIL Brewers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Brewers are 14-15 while White Sox are an awful 7-21. Brewers will start Peralta, who is 2-3 with a 2.56 ERA in 6 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 3 previous starts versus White Sox, who will go with Wilson, who has a 4.30 ERA this season, having made just 1 start after having a 4.04 ERA last season and being 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA in the last 5 starts versus Brewers. So, got to give the edge to the much better Brewers side and back them to win this one.
00:30 DET Pistons @ NY Knicks
DET Pistons 5.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
The Knicks lead this series comfortably 3-1 after 2 wins in Detroit, which came by just 2 and 1 point differences. They split 2 head-to-head meetings in MSG, with the Knicks winning the first one by 11 after trailing by 8 points through 3 quarters before Pistons won game 2 by 6 points . The Pistons have what it takes to keep this game close as well, making them plus a handy head start a side to be on.
00:07 BOS Red Sox @ TOR Blue Jays
BOS Red Sox
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.73
Win
37
Red Sox are 16-14 after winning the last 2 games and scoring 20 runs in those 2 games, while the Blue Jays are 13-15 after losing 7 of the last 8 games, scoring a total of 16 runs in those 8 games. Red Sox will start Crochet, who has been very solid, 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 6 starts this season, while the Blue Jays will go with Francis, who is 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA. They have very similar bullpens, and then got to give a slight pitching advantage to the Red Sox, who have been way hotter offensively lately, making them a solid pick to win this one.
Subtotal-45
29 April 2025
20:00 Arsenal v PSG
Declan Rice
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Rice has been excellent for Arsenal this season. He has been more involved offensively, having scored 4 goals in 11 appearances in the Champions League, including a phenomenal brace of free kicks versus Real Madrid in the previous round which saw him open the scoring. So, got to see excellent value backing him to open the scoring in this one as well.
David Raya
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Raya earned 2 yellow cards in the PL and 2 more yellow cards in the CL this season, including in the last match at Real Madrid for time-wasting, as he is prone to delaying his kicks with a positive result worth holding on to. So, got to see very solid value in backing him to get a card here too.
Leandro Trossard
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@8.50
Win
375
Trossard earned 4 yellow cards and 1 red card in the PL this season, where he has been coming off the bench in a lot of matches. He will start here, and no doubt he will be aggressive in order to show out and retain his spot up front for the 2nd leg. So, got to see big value on this price in him getting booked.
Myles Lewis Skelly
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
Lewis Skelly earned 2 yellow cards and 2 straight red cards in the PL this season in 19 appearances. He got 1 more card in the CL as he often is too aggressive, which could easily see him get in trouble here as well and get booked.
14:10 Joao Almeida vs Alexander Vlasov
Joao Almeida
Matchups
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Almeida is coming off an overall win at the Tour of the Basque Country, where he was 2nd in the opening time trial, finishing 10 seconds in front of Vlasov, who, in the end, was only 47th as he isn't in the best of form. Almeida is a slightly better time trialist, so the short 3.5 km long prologue should suit the Portuguese better and see him finish in front of the Russian.
14:10 Maikel Zijlaard vs Ivo Oliveira
Maikel Zijlaard
Matchups
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
Zijlaard won the prologue here last year, which was his first professional win, while Oliveira was 5th, being 3 seconds slower. Zijlaard specializes in short prologues like this one, of just 3.5km in length. He is 5cm taller and 5kg heavier than Ivo Oliveira, which should give him slightly more power. In a short stage like this, where he likes to go kamikaze style, it makes Zijlaard a good pick to finish in front of Ivo Oliveira.
03:10 MIA Marlins @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.77
Lose
-50
Dodgers are strong, 18-10, of which dominant 12-3 at home, while Marlins are 12-15, of which just 4-7 on the road. Dodgers will start May, who is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 4 starts this season, and he is 2-1 with a 1.08 ERA in 3 previous starts versus Marlins. Marlins will go with Cabrera, who has been really struggling as he is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 3 starts this season, and he is 0-3 with a 15.30 ERA in 3 previous starts versus Dodgers, allowing 17 runs in just 10 innings of work. Dodgers are a way better side with way more firepower in their lineup, and they will have a significant pitching advantage while their bullpen is also better with a 3.64 ERA, while Marlins' bullpen has a 4.54 ERA. Dodgers won 5 of their 6 head-to-head meetings last season, with all 5 of those wins coming by at least a 2-run difference. So, how dominant Dodgers have been at home this season, you simply got to like them to win this one convincingly as well.
Over 8.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
Dodgers went over this total in 3 of the last 4 home games, while the Marlins went over this total in the last 6 road games. Dodgers will start May, who has a 3.68 ERA, having allowed 12 runs in 22 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Marlins will start Cabrera, who has a 6.14 ERA in 3 starts this season, and he is 0-3 with a 15.30 ERA in 3 previous starts versus the Dodgers. They went over this total in 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings, so you have to expect another high-scoring contest here and take the over.
03:00 HOU Rockets @ GS Warriors
HOU Rockets 4.00
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
Warriors took a 2-1 lead in this series after a spirited effort in game 3, so the Rockets need to respond here. The Rockets did respond in game 2 after losing game 1, so you have to expect them to respond here as well. In another tight battle, the Rockets plus a handy head start makes them a solid pick in this one.
Under 203.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
These two teams stayed under this total in all 3 games of this series, which saw totals of 180, 203, and 197 points. Both are playing at a bit slower pace, and both are excellent defensively. So, this should be another defensive battle, which should result in another under in the end.
Subtotal189
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