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This is the hardest stage of the race, with some big climbs and almost 3,000 m of climbing in 148.1 km. UAE should have numbers on other teams toward the end, and Vine as excellent climber should have some freedom racing in his home country, so got to see nice value backing Vine to win this stage.

Ryggs Johnston finished T33 last week at the Dubai Invitational with major highlight of firing in an ace on par three 8th hole. He was the second-best American, finishing three shots behind Patrick Reed, but that came after a disaster on the 18th and final hole on Sunday where he posted a 9 after finding water and making a real mess of the hole that gave him fits through the whole weekend, as he played it 3 over par in the first three days. He missed the cut on his debut here a year ago but still found 7 birdies in those first two rounds, 6 of which came on the easier back 9, so no doubt he will know his way around better now, and he showed he can avoid mistakes for the most part if we remove that final-hole debacle. In a slightly smaller field of just 7 players across the pond, there is huge value backing him to finish as the best American.

Frittelli opened the year with a very good showing and a T10 finish at the Dubai Invitational last week. He is 3 for 3 here previously, with two of those being top-10 finishes, including last year when he finished T10 after ending on a bad note being 2 over par on the last 5 holes. Dylan finished last year well, notching results of T14 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and T36 at the Mauritius Open before carrying some of that momentum into this year, so he is playing decent enough that this price is definitely worth giving a look to South African.

McIlroy opened the new season with a decent showing and a T3 finish at the Dubai Invitational, finishing 2 shots off the winner. He admitted he needed to shake off some rust and used that tournament as practice for this week and the much bigger prize pool for a tournament at which he has an exceptional record. He made the cut in his last 12 attempts here and never finished below 10th place in those 12 showings, with 4 wins and a further 4 top-5 finishes. He ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting last week, which is a great sign for this week, so got to expect Rory to clean up some other areas of his game, which should result in another strong showing and, quite possibly, a 5th title in the Dubai Desert Classic.

Hovland is 2 for 3 here previously, highlighted by winning the title back in 2022. Viktor had a really good 2025, highlighted by winning the Valspar Championship and finishing 3rd at the U.S. Open. He also finished the year strong with five top-25 finishes in the last 5 events he featured in, with 3 of those being top-7 finishes while he also played in the Ryder Cup in between those. He sits 14th in the OWGR and has shown he can play his best here in the desert, so got to see nice value backing Viktor to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

McIlroy has a tremendous record at this tournament, being 12 for his last 12, with all of those 12 finishes inside the top 10, highlighted by 4 wins and 4 further top-5 finishes. He started with T3 last week in the opening tournament of the year last week and shook off any rust that might have crept into his game, so got to expect Rory to be at his best this weekend and to finish as the best from GB and Ireland.

Rams have an excellent team all around, which is playing at a really high level this season. Their QB, Stafford, led them to the title in 2022, and he is playing some of the best football of his career this year under McVay's helm. They have a superb young defense this year, filled with talent all over it, and they are one of the least penalized teams in the league. Being that young on defense allowed them to add Adams to their receiving core alongside one of the best receivers in the league, Nacua. Rams also have a really good running game with Kyren Williams and a whole stable of solid tight ends. So, with an experienced, Super Bowl-winning QB like Stafford, who usually plays his best in the biggest games, you simply have to like the Rams to go all the way and win another ring in Santa Clara this season.