Kazeka1886

These two teams opened this series with a low-scoring contest that saw 47 total goals. Their H2H meetings are usually low scoring as the last 4 stayed below this total and averaged a low 43 total goals per game, so got to expect another slow-paced battle of strong defenses here, which should result in another under in the end.

Almeria went over this total in 17 of their last 21 games while Castellon scored in their last 9 games and conceded in their last 6 games. They went over this total in 5 of last 6 H2H meetings which averaged 3.8 goals per game so got to expect goals here and take the over.

Almeria is 3rd with 58 points while Castellon is 6th with 51 points, so this should be a close game between two quality sides. However, Almeria is in much better form, being 7-1-1 in their last 9 games, while Castellon is struggling of late, winless in their last 6 games with 3 losses and 3 draws. Almeria scored 23 goals in their last 9 games, while Castellon conceded 14 goals in their last 6 games. Almeria won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head meetings, so got to fancy the visitors plus they a handy head start in this one.

McCarthy has an excellent record here at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, being 5 for 6 with 4 top-20 finishes, highlighted by runner-up finish in 2024 when he lost a playoff after firing a 9-under-par round of 63 on Sunday. He is coming off back to back fine displays, finishing T26 at the Valspar Championship and T12 last week at the Houston Open, where he shot 4 rounds of 68 or better and fired bogey-free weekend rounds of 67-66. He is very good in windy conditions, and Texas weather is always challenging and windy, so got to expect another strong showing from Denny this weekend.

Mitchell has been playing very consistently for a while now, having made the cut in the last 13 events he played in. He has 3 top-15 finishes this year, the last one coming just last week at the Houston Open, where he closed with a bogey-free round of 65. He is 4-for-4 here at TPC San Antonio with finishes of 26, 17, 14 and T12 last year, when he opened with a superb 8-under-par round of 64, so with the good form he brings to a course where he normally plays well, simply got to see nice value backing Keith to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Hisatsune is playing very well this season, having made the cut in 8 straight events with 3 top-10 finishes, highlighted by T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He was T5 here a year ago despite shooting just 73-74 over the weekend. Ryo ranks 3rd for Greens in Regulation on the PGA Tour this season, and his putter looked really good on these tough greens to put on last year here at TPC San Antonio, so got to feel like Ryo should go well again this week and earn another strong result.