Kazeka1886

USA went 3-1 in the group stage after taking the last game against Italy lightly, thinking they were already through, which saw them nervously waiting on Italy to help put them through by beating Mexico in their final game. Canada won their group with the same 3-1 record, upsetting Cuba and Puerto Rico. USA was better offensively, averaging 8.8 runs per game, while Canada averaged 5.3 runs per game in the group stage. USA won their last 3 H2H meetings, with those wins coming by 8, 9, and 11 runs. After that near fiasco that almost saw them fail to advance in their last game, simply got to expect USA to be fully focused here and put damage on their neighbours and rivals Canada, which should see a much stronger USA side win this one very convincingly in the end.

Both teams have been good offensively in the group stage as USA averaged 8.8 runs scored per game, while Canada averaged 5.3 runs scored per game. USA hasn't been that good on the pitching side, allowing 4.3 runs per game, which came against rather weaker squads, but their lineup is filled with talent and can produce runs in bunches. They went over this total in 3 of their last 4 H2H meetings, with USA scoring 10+ in the last 2 of those matches, so got to expect another higher-scoring contest which should result in an over.

Oilers went over this total in 14 of their last 15 games, while Blues went over this total in 5 of their last 7 home games. Both are poor defensively as Blues rank 26th, allowing 3.3 goals per game, while Oilers are even worse, ranking 28th and allowing 3.4 goals per game. Both are playing the second night of back-to-back games, which should create more open ice as legs get tired and more good scoring chances which should lead to a higher-scoring game and result in an over.

Pelicans are 22-45 while Rockets are 40-25. However, the Pelicans have been playing well of late, winning 7 of their last 10 games and covering the spread in 8 of their last 10. Conversely, the Rockets haven't been their best recently, losing 4 of their last 7 games and failing to cover the spread in 5 of those 7 games. They split 2 head-to-head meetings this season, and those came earlier when the Pelicans were a much worse squad, so this time around, got to expect another close game in which the Pelicans, with a handy head start, look like the better side to be on.

Hamilton took P4 in yesterday's qualifying with a very solid showing. He holds the record here in Shanghai with 6 wins, and he won the sprint here last year. Ferrari were incredible in starts in winter testing, and they proved that in Australia, where Leclerc jumped to 1st on lap one starting from 4th, while Hamilton jumped to 3rd by turn one starting from 7th. Hamilton is closer here, and if he can again get a great jump start, there is big value backing him to win on this track.

Hamilton finished 4th in qualifying yesterday, getting inside a tenth of a second in a sandwich between two McLarens. He holds the record in Shanghai with the most wins with 6, and he also won the Sprint race here last year. Ferrari also showed that they are markedly better at the new start than everybody else, which makes Lewis a solid pick for a podium in this short Sprint race.

Hadjar got off to a fantastic start to his Red Bull tenure, taking P3 in qualifying in Australia before a series of car issues and an eventual power unit failure forced him to retire on lap 11 of the race. He took P10 yesterday in qualifying as Red Bull were much more off the pace. However, he is close to the points and will be eager to prove himself after a bad finish to his opening week with his new team, so there's nice value backing him to sneak into the points here.

Antonelli notched 3 fastest laps in the races last year, and this year he has a superior car, as Mercedes looks way faster than the rest of the field. He held the fastest lap for the majority of the Australian race before Verstappen snatched it late with new tyres, so in a short sprint race with a fast car, there is simply great value backing Kimi to finish with the fastest lap.

Verstappen took only 8th in qualifying yesterday, being well off the pace of the best. However, he has an impeccable record in Sprint races with 13 wins since Sprint was introduced, which is more than a 50% strike rate in 24 Sprint races. He also has 5 more podium finishes in Sprint races and comes off a race in Australia where he finished 6th after starting way back in 20th. This style of race, with the new modifications and a lot of overtaking, plays into his hands, so there's nice value backing him to finish inside the top 6 in this one.

Tigers had a bye in the first round and will open the season at Leichhardt Oval, which always produces special atmosphere to play in. On the other side, Cowboys opened the season in Las Vegas, losing to the Knights by 10 points while allowing 28 points. Both looked solid in preseason games, where the Tigers scored 42 and 26 points while the Cowboys scored 34 and 66 points, so both can produce offensively. Their H2H meetings are usually filled with points as the last 7 games between them went over this total, averaging a whopping 68.7 total points per game. The last one of those came exactly here at Leichhardt Oval and saw them combine for 62 points in the next-to-last game of the past season, so with both teams being fully healthy, simply got to expect a lot of tries in a heavy scoring game, which should result in an over.

Dragons opened with a tight golden-point loss to the Bulldogs in Las Vegas, while Storm dismantled the Eels by 48 points at home. Dragons were very solid defensively, and their fitness early in the season showed up late in that tough game that went for 90 minutes. Conversely, the new-look Storm, without Papenhuyzen, destroyed the Eels as their firepower and tempo were too much for the visitors. Dragons won the last two H2H meetings against Storm, showing that under Flanagan they have what it takes to disrupt and trouble this Storm side, so got to expect the Dragons to slow the tempo of this game and turn it into a gritty defensive contest which should help them stay close enough throughout the contest, and then this 2-try head start seems like a solid pick to go with the hosts in Kogarah.

Storm had a total of 52 points in their first game of the season, in which they held the Eels to only 4 points and exploded offensively with 6 tries in the second half. On the other side, the Dragons played in Las Vegas and had a total of just 29 points after going to extra time for a golden point to decide the winner. Both were excellent defensively, limiting opponents to 4 and 15 points, so this should be an intriguing contest. Their last H2H match saw a total of just 22 points, as the Dragons won 14-8 here in Kogarah. The match before that they combined for 34 points, with the Dragons winning 18-16 on the road, so clearly, this Dragons unit knows how to slow the tempo down when going against this strong offensive Storm side, which should be the game plan for the hosts again, and then got to expect a slightly lower-scoring game that should stay below this total in the end.

Coventry leads the league with 77 points, sitting 8 points clear at the top, while Southampton is 7th with 54 points, sitting 6 points below the final spot that leads to the playoff for promotion. Coventry is in superb form, having won their last 6 games, outscoring opponents by 14-3. On the other side, Southampton is also in excellent form, being undefeated in their last 9 games with 6 wins and 3 draws, so this should be a quality game. Coventry is fantastic at home with 14-3-1 record, while Southampton is slightly weaker on the road with 6-6-7 record, so got to feel like the league leaders will be out to prove the point that they are on their way to the Premier League, and given how good Coventry has been at home, simply got to expect them to edge out the Saints and win 3 huge new points in front of their supporters.

Griffin had a bit of a slower start to 2026 but still produced some solid results, as he sits 13th in the OWGR. He notched 3 wins in his last 24 outings while also finishing twice as runner-up in that stretch, which is a superb return at this level. He was T35 here on debut in 2023 before a couple of missed cuts followed, which kept his price high this week, but given his quality and ability to win when in contention, he represents huge value worth going with this weekend.

Young has been playing very well the last few weeks as he finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational, where he fired excellent weekend rounds of 66-66. He followed that up with an even better showing last week at Bay Hill, taking T3 with another set of strong weekend rounds of 67-69 that featured just a single bogey. He was only T61 here last year but got off to a fine start, sitting 4 under par before he fell apart over the weekend. This time around he looks much better, and he has been playing some fantastic golf in crucial rounds, so if he avoids a bad round with the form he is on, simply got to feel like Cameron could easily be in the mix, fighting for the win.

Morikawa is in outstanding form as he won at Pebble Beach and then followed that up with two more very good outings, taking T7 at The Genesis Invitational and then finishing 5th last week at Arnie's place. He was T3 heading into the weekend here in 2023 en route to finishing T13, and he was T10 last year after another blistering start that saw him sit at T4 heading into the weekend rounds. Colin is playing some great stuff at the moment, and he has been improving in recent starts here at TPC Sawgrass, so got to fancy him to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Aberg has had a slightly weaker start to 2026 as he suffered from some illnesses early in the year, but he has looked better of late. He notched T20 at The Genesis Invitational on his penultimate start, where he finished with a nice round of 66, before a T3 finish last week at Bay Hill, where he got off to an excellent start with round of 66 and closed out with another fine round of 67. Since his move to the U.S., he resides in Ponte Vedra and uses TPC Sawgrass as the course on which he practices most of the time. His debut here resulted in an 8th-place finish with three rounds of 67 as only a weaker Friday round stopped him from contending for the win in his first attempt. Gaining momentum in recent weeks and ranking 1st for Total Driving last week makes Ludvig a solid pick to contend for the win.