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These two superb riders are deserved favorites to win this race, and it will be hard to split them. However, van der Poel won this race twice in 2023 and 2025, while Pogacar, no matter how great he has been, hasn't won here yet. The two main climbs, Cipressa and Poggio, are shorter efforts approached at high speeds. That reduces Pogacar's usual attacking opportunities and doesn't leave much room to attack. On the other side, van der Poel has shown he can follow all those Slovenian attacks and even counter. Plus, he has a faster sprint, which plays a big role with the flat run-in to the finish, so got to give the edge to van der Poel, for whom this race should suit better, and see him finish in front of Pogacar.

Mathieu van der Poel won this race twice, in 2023 and last year as it suits his skills perfectly. It's usually decided on the Poggio, which is short enough perfectly fitting his explosiveness on such steeper short climbs, and if the race comes back in a reduced group after that, van der Poel has a tremendous sprint, so got to fancy him for another win in the first monument of the year.

Southampton is 6th with 60 points, holding the final spot that leads to the playoff for promotion only on goal difference, while Oxford Utd is 22nd with 39 points, sitting 1 point below the safety zone, so this is a big game for both sides. Both have been playing well of late as Oxford Utd is undefeated in their last 4 games with 3 wins, while the Saints have been even better, going undefeated in their last 11 games with 8 wins and also reaching the quarterfinals of the FA Cup. Oxford Utd did face a slightly easier schedule in their 4-game unbeaten streak and were winless in the 6 games prior, with 4 losses. Conversely, Southampton beat the league leaders Coventry and a red-hot Norwich side in their last 2 games, so it feels like the Saints are on a slightly higher level, and at home at St Mary's, they should have the edge and win this one.

Smotherman has been playing really well this year. He opened with T8 at The American Express, where he shot four rounds of 68 or better. He was then fantastic T2 at the Cognizant Classic, where he opened with a 9-under-par round of 62, and he comes here after a very good showing at Arnie's place, where he finished T13. He was solid in 2 previous showings here at Copperhead, with results of 25th and 36th in 2022 and 2023. Years later he returns as a much better player who is playing excellent golf at the moment, leading the Tour in Strokes Gained on Approach and sitting 8th in Greens in Regulation, so married with his always-strong long off-the-tee game, simply got to see nice value backing him to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Hisatsune is playing some amazing golf this year as the Japanese youngster sits 61st in the OWGR, very close to the top 50 and an invitation to the Masters. He was T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open at the start of the year and notched 3 more top-15s since, finishing T10 at the Phoenix Open, T8 at Pebble Beach, and T13 last week at The Players Championship. He was T33 here on debut in 2024 and even better T4 a year ago, so he likes Copperhead, and this time around arrives as a much-improved player who is playing great at the moment, which could easily see the Japanese youngster contend for the win.

Moore opened this season playing very well and making the cut in all events he played in, highlighted by T2 at the Cognizant Classic where he shot all 4 rounds of 68 or better. He is a former winner here, having won the title in 2023 before finishing T12 a year later when defending. He ranks in the top 8 on the Tour for Scrambling and Par-3 scoring, which are both very relevant this week at Copperhead, so got to see very nice value backing former winner to contend here once again come Sunday afternoon.