Kazeka1886

Spurs are 5-4 against the spread in their last 9 games, while the Grizzlies failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 9 games and have just lost Morant for the rest of the season. Spurs covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 head-to-head meetings, so got to expect the Spurs to roll here and win this one by a huge margin.

Spurs produced overs in 7 of their last 10 games, with 6 of the last 9 of those games seeing them score 125 or more points. On the other side, Grizzlies just had a total of 253 points in their last game, and they are allowing 127.1 points per game in their last 10 games while scoring an average of 113.2 points per game in that stretch offensively. They went over this total in 5 of the last 7 H2H meetings, so got to expect another higher-scoring game with a huge output by the Spurs, which should lead to an over.

Rockets have 5 unders in their last 8 games, while the Timberwolves have 7 unders in their last 10 games. They stayed under the total in their only H2H meeting of the season, so with both struggling of late, got to expect another lower-scoring game that should result in an under.

Thorbjornsen has been playing very well this season, highlighted by T3 finish at the Phoenix Open. He shot superb back-to-back rounds of 65-67 on Friday and Saturday at The Players Championship in his last outing to enter Sunday playing in the final group, but that got to him and he made a big mistake on the 4th hole for a quadruple bogey and a subsequent 77 round that saw him drop in the rankings to finish T22. He was T39 here on debut last year after 4 bogeys on the final 5 holes ruined an even better finish, but that result came after he missed 6 of the previous 7 cuts, so arriving in much better form this time around at a course he clearly can play well on makes Michael a solid pick to go with this weekend.