21Jackpot

This runner was narrowly beaten by 2¼ lengths over 5f at Wolverhampton last time out, running off a 1 lb higher rating. With 22 runs under his belt, the only win for this experienced 4-year-old came over today’s trip. While he has shown respectable form over 5f, today’s trip looks much better suited, particularly on the all-weather. This is just his second start for this yard, who have had 3 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, yielding a level-stakes profit of +10.66.

Frances Tiafoe [22] and Matteo Arnaldi [104] meet for the third time, with the head-to-head standing at 1-1. Their only previous meeting on clay saw Arnaldi win in straight sets. Looking at their three matches in this tournament thus far, there is little to separate them. Arnaldi is holding serve 91.3% of the time compared to Tiafoe at 90.4%. Arnaldi also has the marginally better first-serve percentage at 72.2% (vs 70.3%) but is winning slightly fewer points behind it at 74.0% (vs 76.3%). Tiafoe has held serve 90.4% of the time while Arnaldi is marginally better at 91.3%. It's a similar picture on return, with Arnaldi winning a slightly greater percentage of points when facing a second serve (50.0% vs 48.5%), but Tiafoe has the slightly better percentage when facing the first serve (31.6% vs 30.1%). Tiafoe has the better conversion rate on break points, converting 50.0% of the time (vs 18.6%). Despite the disparity in ranking, there is very little to separate these two players on this surface. With that in mind, the difference in price between the two players appears too great, and the value appears to be with Arnaldi.