Zipster

This has always been a race that I have struggled to find the winner, so heed that warning! I am going to another runner who I believe can win back-to-back renewals with FULL SERRANO. This John W Sadler was runner-up in the Pacific Classic Stakes before winning this race last year, and comes here this year having been runner-up again, this time in the Goodwood Stakes. He is a really lightly raced runner for his age; the owners don't seem to waste time sending him to races, which he may not have a chance of winning and are very selective. They have kept him fresh for this race; that recent run would have given him a bit of fitness, and whilst Nysos looks a massive favour, Baffert's (0-12) record in this race is nothing to shout about. Full Serrano to make it back-to-back wins and repeat the success of Codys Wish, who won this in both 2022 & 2023.

It is a real shame and a big loss to the race that we will not see Sovereignty due to the horse developing a fever, but it does throw the race wide open. You could make strong cases for a lot of these runners, and that should be the case in such a high-profile race. Fierceness is one I like, as is Journalism, but my pick goes with SIERRA LEONE. We have to go back to 2001 to find the last back-to-back winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, which was Tiznow, and that is the only runner to retain their title in the history of this race. He comes here after finishing runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes and has one and a half lengths to find on Antiquarian, but let's not forget last year. He finished third in the Travers Stakes, two lengths behind Fierceness. He then beat that runner in this race by a length and a half, so he is more than capable of reversing deficits. I think this is the best chance of having a horse retain their title in this race for a long time.

Sixteen of the last twenty winners have been European raiders, the home team have only managed to win four renewals and only one of the last ten! Aidan O'Brien is a record-holding seven-time winner of this race and looks to have an excellent chance of adding an eighth to that this year. MINNIE HAWK just missed out on winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe when Daryz swooped late to deny her, but that doesn't make her a bad horse. She has won the English Oaks, the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks this season, all three being Group 1 races, and let's face it, the ground was not exactly favourable over in France like it will be for this race. Rebels Romance is an obvious danger, but the inside gate is not one I would want to be in for this. I much prefer the gate eight that Minnie will be coming out of.

Jose L Ortiz has been a bit unlucky in this race in the past. In 2018, he was runner-up on Wow Cat. Two years later, in 2020, he was third with Dunbar Road, a year later, in 2021, on the same horse, he was runner-up, and then in 2023, he was runner-up with Randomized! Based on that, some may be asking why I am siding with his mount, NITROGEN, this year! For me, she looks the best horse in the race. This year alone, she is a five-time group winner, with her career highlight coming when landing the Alabama Stakes in August, beating the Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer. That run alone for me would win this race; she is consistent, and she is coming from the Spinster Stakes (runner-up), which has provided three of the last six winners of this race.

This is one of my favourite races at the Breeders' Cup; it probably dates back to dual winner Roy H, who I was a fan of. I have swerved the Bob Baffert runners so far, but I think this could be the race where he gets up and running with IMAGINATION. He is not the most reliable; in fact, he has only won two of his twelve starts to date, but he won the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes last time out, which is a positive. Last year, Straight No Chaser won that race and then came here to win this, so he will be looking to replicate that feat. Roy H, who I have already mentioned as being a fan of the horse, won this in both 2017 & 2018 and also took that same route, winning at Santa Anita before winning this, so lots of positives for Baffert's runner here.

Bit of a longshot here, but I am taking a chance on VAHVA to come good for Cherie DeVaux in the Filly & Mare Sprint. She has given her owners some decent days out; she is a five-time group winner with the pick of those coming when she won the Derby City Distaff Stakes last year. She has been a bit hit or miss of late, with only one win from her last six starts, but she is coming off a decent run in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes and let's not forget that Irad Ortiz Jr is in the saddle, and he certainly knows how to win this race as proved in 2017, 2018, 2022 & 2023 so if anyone can get her home in front, it's Irad!

Surprisingly small field for this one this year, with at the time of writing just seven going to post, the smallest in the 42-year history of this race. Bob Baffert looks to have a strong hand with Brant and the likely pacemaker for him in Litmus Test, but I am opting for INTREPIDO. This Jeff Mullins runner was almost ten lengths behind Brant on debut, but has improved since then, with his most recent success coming in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes earlier in the month. Has he improved enough to overturn that 10-length deficit? They both beat the same runner, Desert Gate, when last seen by around the same difference, which is a good indication that Intrepido is going to give Brant a proper race here.

I find it amazing that Todd Pletcher is 0-17 in this race over the last twenty renewals and John Velazquez is 0-14; in fact, those sorts of numbers should probably put me off my pick here, but as we know, all runs, good or bad, eventually come to an end and this could be the years for them both. This unbeaten juvenile, TOMMY JO, has beaten everything put in front of her so far and, in doing so, has landed both the Spinaway Stakes and Alcibiades Stakes, both of which are G1 races. Something that favours her is her win in the Alcibiades Stakes. Both Wonder Wheel (2022) and Immersive (2024) won this race after winning it, as did the 2009, 2014 & 2019 winners. So, she could well be following that trend here tonight.

True Love looks to be the O'Brien first choice here, but I am siding with BRUSSELS from the yard. One of three for Aidan in a race where he is 0-7, the closest he has come was So Perfect, who was third in 2018. This could be his year, despite the absence of Ryan Moore. After winning on debut at the Curragh, Brussels has found it tough to get his head back in front. He has been runner-up in three of his five runs since, with the pick of those his second in the Middle Park Stakes behind Wise Approach, a runner I rate highly, so that was no disgrace. This looks competitive and probably not the best draw in one but his third run with the tongue-tie on and I think it really has helped him on his last two starts and Aidan's runners who finished runner-up last time out when wearing a tongue-tie went on to win 46% of the time next time out, has to be in with a should here the way he is progressing.