capereira
9
Estimated Prizes
this month
£65
Estimated Prize money
this month
capereira's Tips History
09 May 2026
20:00 Bolton v Bradford
Bolton
50 WIN
@-120
Open
0
Bolton finished 2 points above Bradford, have the superior goal difference (+18 vs +7), and are at home in the first leg. Their 70 goals scored and 48 assists (the most in the play-off semi-finals) reflect the most creative and clinical squad left in the competition. Playing at the Toughsheet with a home crowd and the motivation to take a lead into Bradford's Valley Parade, Bolton are the clear, logical winners.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-109
Open
0
The last H2H meeting (25 April) ended 1-1 ??" under 2.5. The average goals in H2H meetings is just 2.2 per game ??" right on the under 2.5 borderline but weighted toward under given the high-stakes semi-final context. Both managers will prioritize defensive organisation in Leg 1.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@+100
Open
0
In play-off semi-final first legs, teams are tactically cautious. Managers prioritize not conceding over scoring freely. Bradford (58 GF in the regular season) are the lower-scoring of the two sides, and Bolton's 52 GA defence is well-organised at home.
Bolton #1-0
50 WIN
@+600
Open
0
In play-off first legs, 1-0 home wins are the most common outcome. Teams secure a narrow lead without overcommitting. Bolton's superior quality (+18 GD, 70 goals) is enough to edge Bradford at home.
19:45 Connacht v Munster
Connacht
To Win
50 WIN
@-181
Win
28
The best current preview leans Connacht, driven by home form, sold-out support, and Munster’s absentee list. That is enough to outweigh Munster’s stronger long-term H2H record in this specific spot.
Under 49.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
Munster average 28 points and Connacht 21 across the last five meetings, which gives a combined average of 49 points. That sits right on the line, and when a derby average already matches the number, I usually lean under rather than over unless there is a strong attacking catalyst.
19:45 Dragons v Edinburgh
Edinburgh
To Win
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
Edinburgh are the right side because they have won the last four against Dragons and were dominant in the latest meeting. However, their away record is weak enough to keep this closer than the H2H suggests, which makes a modest Edinburgh win.
19:00 Craig Steadman v Joe Perry
Craig Steadman
Win Match
50 WIN
@+220
Open
0
Steadman beat Jones, Bond, and Carter in this competition. The win over Carter indicates that he has chances to beat Perry, and at these odds is a good value bet.
Craig Steadman 2.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@-124
Open
0
Steadman +2.5 is playable because the match format is short and Steadman has enough recent competitiveness to keep it close, but Perry still looks the more likely winner by overall quality.
19:00 Gradus Kraus v Theo Brooks
Gradus Kraus
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-3333
Open
0
The best winner pick is Gradus Kraus, most likely by KO/TKO because Brooks looks live enough to last a bit but not enough to stop Kraus’s pressure and power. Brooks is the underdog and would need a very disciplined points performance to upset the favorite.
17:50 Liam Cameron v Bradley Rea
Bradley Rea
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-227
Open
0
Rea’s youth, cleaner recent form, and technical edge make him the safer side in a fight that is expected to stay tactical and go deep. Cameron can make it messy and competitive, but Rea’s jab, pace, and consistency should carry him over the line on points.
Bradley Rea Decision or Technical Decision
Outcome 5-Way
50 WIN
@+162
Open
0
Liam Cameron comes in at 33-7-1 with knockouts across 41 fights, which tells you he’s experienced but not a one-punch finisher. Bradley Rea is 23-2 with knockouts as well, and preview sources note he has won 21 straight decisions, making him the cleaner, volume-and-jab boxer.
17:30 Man City v Brentford
Man City
50 WIN
@-263
Win
19
Must-win title game at the Etihad where City are 10W-2D in their last 12. Won all three recent Etihad meetings vs Brentford (2-0, 2-1, 1-0). Rodri back. Haaland (25 goals) firing.
17:00 Khaleel Majid v Gavin Gwynne
Khaleel Majid
Win Fight
50 WIN
@+120
Open
0
Khaleel Majid is the pick. He’s unbeaten at 16-0, younger, and the market is close, but the upside still leans toward the fresher fighter rather than the 36-year-old veteran.
16:20 Bakhodir Jalolov v Agron Smakici
Bakhodir Jalolov
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-1250
Open
0
Jalolov is listed at 16-0 with 14 KOs, which gives him an 88% knockout rate. Smakici is most commonly listed at 21-3 with 19 KOs. Jalolov has the cleaner unbeaten profile and the stronger top-level outlook.
15:00 Brighton v Wolverhampton
Brighton
50 WIN
@-344
Win
14
Chasing Europe vs a Wolves side in a relegation battle with zero clean sheets against Brighton this season. Brighton have won or drawn every Amex meeting with Wolves in recent years, with three consecutive victories in all competitions.
Danny Welbeck
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@-124
Lose
-50
13 Premier League goals in 34 appearances ??" Brighton's outright top scorer and one of the top 10 in the entire PL this season. Recently scored against Chelsea. Plays as the central striker ??" receives all service from Minteh (40 shot assists this season, most at Brighton).
15:00 Dundee v Livingston
Dundee
50 WIN
@-120
Win
41
Dundee are unbeaten at home vs Livingston in their last 6 meetings (3W-3D-0L). Livingston have never won at Dens Park in recent history. Livingston are bottom of the league, conceding 68 goals, with the worst goal difference in the division (-29). Dundee's home advantage in a relegation six-pointer, combined with a superior league position, makes them the clear pick.
Simon Murray
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+500
Lose
-50
Simon Murray scored in the 3rd and 5th minutes at Dens Park vs Livingston. He is Dundee's primary attacking threat and has specifically dominated Livingston in recent meetings at this ground.
15:00 Fulham v Bournemouth
Draw
50 WIN
@+275
Lose
-50
Bournemouth have drawn a league-high 16 games this season. SportsMole specifically describes them as "stalemate specialists." Bournemouth are on a 15-game unbeaten run and won the last H2H 3-1. Fulham have won just 2 of 17 against Bournemouth.
Eli Junior Kroupi
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+150
Lose
-50
The young Bournemouth striker has been in scintillating form ??" starting ahead of Ünal in today's XI. Kroupi operates centrally as a second striker/attacking midfielder behind Evanilson and has a direct goal-scoring license.
15:00 Hornchurch FC v Torquay
Hornchurch FC
50 WIN
@+160
Lose
-50
Regular season champions hosting the final at their sold-out home ground. Hornchurch finished 1st ??" above Torquay (3rd) ??" reflecting genuine superiority across the season. Home advantage in a promotion final is enormous: the crowd, the atmosphere, the familiar surroundings.
15:00 Issiah Hamilton Allen v Connor Goulding
Issiah Hamilton Allen
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-1999
Open
0
Issiah Hamilton-Allen is still the pick, and adding stats makes the case even stronger. He’s 1-0 with a points win over Connor Meanwell, while Connor Goulding is 5-10-0 and has KOs. Hamilton-Allen has the cleaner profile despite being far less experienced.
15:00 Mike Perez v Franklin Arinze
Mike Perez
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-1428
Open
0
Mike Perez is the pick, and the stats make that even clearer. Perez is listed around 31-3-1 with roughly 22 KOs, while Franklin Arinze is listed at 10-0 (7 KOs).
15:00 Stevenage v Stockport
Stevenage
50 WIN
@+160
Lose
-50
Stockport have never won away at Stevenage ??" 0W in 5 visits across all competitions. Stevenage won both 2025/26 league meetings (2-1 at home, 3-1 away). Playing at the Lamex in the play-offs in front of their home crowd in a must-win first leg is the perfect Stevenage scenario.
15:00 Sunderland v Man Utd
Man Utd
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Man Utd are the PL's second-best team over the last 10 games. They just won 2-0 in the reverse fixture and are backed by every single analyst. Sunderland are W1-L4 at home and just lost 5-0 to Forest without their key CB.
Bruno Fernandes
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+259
Lose
-50
He is Man Utd's Player of the Year, operates as the creative No. 10 directly behind Šeško, and has been scoring and assisting at elite rates in 2026. He is in outstanding form, generating 3??"4 shots per game from central areas.
12:30 Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
Chelsea are on a 6-game losing streak under an interim manager. Liverpool won the last two Anfield head-to-heads 4-1 and 2-1.
Liverpool & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+275
Lose
-50
In the Premier League specifically, Chelsea are essentially not scoring. One goal across seven league games is the worst attacking output at this stage of any top-flight season in recent memory. Cole Palmer is their only creative outlet, and Liverpool's Van Dijk/Konaté centre-back partnership will suffocate him.
Cody Gakpo
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+225
Lose
-50
Gakpo starts as Liverpool's centre-forward and is their second-top scorer in play-off H2H metrics with two goals in this fixture context. As the focal point of Liverpool's attack, he receives the most box entries and holds up play for Wirtz and Szoboszlai.
Liverpool #2-0
50 WIN
@+1200
Lose
-50
2-0 is the standout correct-score value bet. Clean sheet for Liverpool (Chelsea are struggling to score). Two goals for the hosts, which is very consistent with their home output. Chelsea have been "catastrophic" at finishing this season.
Over 10.00
Total Corners
50 WIN
@-121
Lose
-50
Liverpool's wide-heavy, possession-dominant system generates the highest corner tallies in the Premier League at Anfield. Chelsea, in their current form ??" six straight losses, defending deep and disorganized under interim manager McFarlane ??" will be pinned back for large portions of this game. When a team is under sustained wide pressure from Frimpong (right) and Ngumoha (left), clearances off the line and blocked crosses constantly produce corners.
12:30 Robert Milkins v Ronnie O Sullivan
Ronnie O Sullivan
Win Match
50 WIN
@-833
Win
6
He has the clear class edge, a dominant head-to-head record over Robert Milkins, and the stronger scoring power. Milkins can make things awkward and force close frames, but Ronnie’s ability to build big breaks and finish chances usually decides this matchup.
Robert Milkins 3.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@+100
Win
50
Milkins +3.5 frames is a reasonable bet against Ronnie O’Sullivan because their recent meetings have often been close, including a 6??"5 Ronnie win and other matches where Milkins took multiple frames.
11:30 Pakistan W vs Zimbabwe W 3rd ODI
S Amin (Pakistan W)
Top Team1 Batsman
50 WIN
@+332
Lose
-50
Sidra Amin is Pakistan’s safest batting pick because she is one of the opening batters and has the best opportunity to face the most balls. Against a weaker Zimbabwe attack, she is the player most likely to make a long, steady score and top the charts.
K Ndhlovu (Zimbabwe W)
Top Team2 Batsman
50 WIN
@+350
Lose
-50
Kelis Ndhlovu is Zimbabwe’s best batting pick because she is one of their more reliable all-round options and gives them the best chance to build an innings. Zimbabwe need someone who can survive early pressure and score responsibly, and Ndhlovu is their strongest option.
10:35 Brumbies v Western Force
Western Force 5.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-120
Lose
-50
The matchup is not as one-sided as Brumbies backers might hope. The Brumbies have won four of the last five against the Force, but the Force won the last match in Canberra. A win here would make it back-to-back in the capital for the first time since 2011.
Under 57.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-114
Win
44
So the under case is not "these teams never score." It is: the line is already very high. The official game expectation is competitive, and the current spread logic points to a match that is more likely to finish around 48??"54 than to revisit the 70s or 80s.
10:35 Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos
Manly Sea Eagles
To Win
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
Manly are deserved favorites because they are defending much better. They are at a venue where Brisbane have struggled badly, and the Broncos remain undermanned.
Under 49.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
Manly's defensive trend under Foran is the best stat on the board, and their last four matches have all gone under the total line.
08:30 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks
South Sydney Rabbitohs
To Win
50 WIN
@+145
Win
73
Souths' attack is being rated the best in the league by multiple previews, and they have scored 30+ in five straight. The main concern is Cronulla's five-game winning run in the head-to-head, which keeps the confidence moderate rather than high.
Over 53.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
Souths just played a 42??"38 game. Cronulla's last five have all gone over, and both teams are being framed as explosive but flawed defensively.
08:05 Moana Pasifika v Hurricanes
Hurricanes -30.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
Moana are on a major slide. The Hurricanes love to pile on points quickly, and I'm expecting the Canes to score 50+ points. The Hurricanes have won six of the last seven meetings and averaged 55.2 points in those wins.
Over 63.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-114
Win
44
This is high, but still justified by the available data because the Hurricanes average 55.2 points in their wins over Moana and it is expected them to score 50+ again.
07:00 Zhuoxuan Bai vs En Shuo Liang
Zhuoxuan Bai to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@+104
Lose
-50
Bai is yet to drop a set this tournament. Liang needed three sets against a lower-ranked Preston. Bai's efficiency (63-minute R16) suggests she closes clean when dominant.
Under 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Bai's R16 win took just 63 minutes, and her QF was 6-4, 6-2. When Bai is on, matches end quickly. Under 20.5 has ~55% probability and strong recent-match precedent from Bai's side.
06:00 St George/Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights
Newcastle Knights -9.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
They have failed to cover six straight home matches. The consensus market, expert picks, and model forecasts all sit around a Newcastle win by one-and-a-half to two tries.
Under 52.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
The strongest numerical evidence says 44 and 45 total points, which is well below the market line. The risk is that some form-based previews expect an open game and point to recent Newcastle overs, so this is not a max-confidence under.
05:35 Highlanders v Waratahs
Waratahs 7.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
Waratahs +7.5 is defendable because expert opinion is split. The market spread is only around 6.5??"7.5, and independent trading analysis calls the matchup very close. The last three meetings have all been decided by two points or less.
Under 55.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-114
Lose
-50
I prefer the under because the matchup is repeatedly framed as very close, scrum-driven, and likely decided by small moments. The last three meetings being decided by two points or fewer supports a controlled game script more than a loose, high-scoring one.
05:30 Xinxin Yao vs Xiaodi You
Xiaodi You to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@+125
Win
62
You's game is built for efficiency. She closed Watson in 49 minutes in set 2 and hasn't dropped a set this tournament. Yao's energy after beating the top seed may dip. Back You 2-0 for value over the match-winner price.
Under 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@+100
Win
50
Both players are competing in their third match of the week on hard court. You's best tennis produces quick, clean sets. Yao's QF win (6-4, 6-4 = 20 games) and Yao's R16 (also compact) suggest sub-21 game totals are likely.
03:00 GS Valkyries @ SEA Storm
GS Valkyries -5.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@-105
Win
47
Magbegor/Fam's absence removes Seattle's entire tactical identity. The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -5.5 as the market prices in the Storm's absences.
Under 157.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@-113
Lose
-50
All three recent H2H meetings produced totals of 146, 125, and 154 ??" all under. Covers community leans under (53%). GSV's "nasty defensive" identity suppresses opposing scoring. They held Seattle to just 70 and 67 in the 2025 season series.
02:30 SA Spurs @ MIN Timberwolves
SA Spurs -5.00
Pointspread
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
Edwards is on a minutes restriction even if he plays (knee bone bruise). The Wolves' secondary scoring (Randle, McDaniels, Shannon) must carry a significant load. SA are 64??"18 with SGA at 32.1 PPG, fully healthy. Public backing SA 63.7% spread.
Over 216.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
The 5-game season H2H average is ~222 combined ??" consistently above 216.5. Game 2 produced 228; Game 1 produced 206 (minimized by Edwards' limited role). At Target Center, with MIN pushing pace at home and SA's elite 122.4 PPG offense firing, the over is preferred.
01:00 Gimnasia Comodoro vs Independiente de Oliva
Under 170.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@-120
Win
41
The 4-game H2H average of 169.5 sits just below 170.5. Only one meeting in recent history cleared this line (the 180-total outlier in October 2024). Three of four recent meetings finished between 163 and 168 ??" comfortably under.
Subtotal-185
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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