Welshboy

Irregular gambler but like a punt on the racing (mainly flat but enjoy the big jumps festivals) and occasionally on the footy. Always been a fan of the long shot, anything short of 5/1 struggles to get my interest!

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Welshboy's Tips History

All tips
All sports
13 June 2024
16:20 4:20 Nottingham

Em Jay Kay

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

Smaller nap bet today after yesterdays big winner but Em Jay Kay looks overpriced dropping in class and the market is taken up by the recent double winner, Rhythmic Acclaim. He's well handicapped and could be a threat to all.
01:30 BOS Celtics @ DAL Mavericks

BOS Celtics

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.30

Win

65

Home games are always going to have a strong bias in terms of the markets at this level of the sport but having watched games one and two, I struggle to see how Dallas can be as short as they are in the market. To be able to take Boston in a two horse race at bigger than 5/4 looks stand out value to me. They have controlled the Mavs so far, even allowing for Luca Doncic's strong first half in game 2 they still restricted them to under 100. I think the Celtics D will control the game again leaving Luca to fight a one man scoring battle against a strong and deep side.

Under 212.50

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

46

As on the win market, I think the Celtics D will be key here and I expect them to keep it tight again. Unless Luca goes off or Kyrie picks up his scoring, its hard to see how the Mavs get 100+. Not impossible, but at 10/11 i like the under here.
12 June 2024
17:18 5:18 Fontwell

Earth Cry

Daily Racing

100 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 2.75 on 12/06 at 01:070.10 deduction for Grain Of Hope@7.50 withdrawn at 17:21R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.75 x (1-0.10) = 2.58Best Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.58 BOG

@3.25

Win

225

I like the form of previous run behind the progressive Jasmine de Grugy. He was a touch lucky to get second with a faller at the last but he was giving JdG 6lb that day so to finish within 6l was decent form. Prior to that he finished 2nd again in front of a very solid yardstick in John Betjeman and I expect him to break his run of seconditis and win today.
17:05 5:05 Kempton

Stockpyle

Daily Racing

250 EWNAP

@5.50

Win

1350

I really like this one tomorrow, conditions look ideal and he's well after finishing second to Arctician last week (another well handicapped type) in a race that might be a better one than this. He goes up in trip, the yard remain in good form and he has a 3lb claimer on board who has won 4 races in the last fortnight. I've had a good go on the cover bet 4 places with Sky at 3/1 but for the purposes of this I can only take ew 3 places. If the four places werent available, either on each way or cover, I would still rate this as a strong bet.
1 member found this comment useful
05 June 2024
17:05 5:05 Kempton

Stockpyle

Daily Racing

250 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 7.00 on 04/06 at 22:080.10 deduction for Dutch Kingdom@7.50 withdrawn at 06:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.00 x (1-0.10) = 6.40

@6.40

Win

20

Genuinely surprised at the price on this one. He's an 80+ horse in my opinion and the fact he was known to need the run on seasonal debut but still ran a good race, suggests his recent wind op might even bring a bit more improvement. He's got the right track and trip and although theres a couple with multiple entries, I'm hoping any NRs will still mean 3pl and there should still be more value in this price with a potential r4 that waiting.
1 member found this comment useful
14:57 2:57 Nottingham

Bermuda Princess

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@7.00

Lose

-100

I was originally drawn to this race by Archie Watson's horse that ran in a thirsk maiden that has worked out well but I remember seeing this horse at the Breeze Up in April and was really impressed by her speed. She's very well bred and once she got going, she looked to have a really nice action and was rapid. There is a Wathnan horse at the top of the market and whilst they are clearly to be respected, I wasn't overly keen on her breeze, she looked to have a more awkward head carriage and whilst they may have enough to get her up on debut, the value lies with William Haggas filly.
1 member found this comment useful
02 June 2024
18:40 6:40 Hamilton

Bearwith

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@7.50

Lose

-100

I was originally planning to back MLQ in this race but she was backed in from 9/1 to 7/2 this morning and has gone from potential ew value to risky fav. Bearwith is rock solid and shouldn't be out of the first 4 if running to form and can push the Fahey horse all the way (MLQ has an eyecatching 3/3 record at the track).
17:40 5:40 Hamilton

Cloudy Skye

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

I think this looks a nice ew play for one at the foot of the weights and looking to have the potential to improve. Richard Fahey thinks she's well enough handicapped to run her from out of the weights so that is an eye catcher in itself. I think the Balding horse is the one to beat but this one is now very backable with 3pl available and an ew price.
16:45 4:45 Fakenham

Beholden

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Beholden looks over-priced at around 9/1 in this race with some nice form and a drop in the weights, together with the drying ground all looking to be in his favour here, The yard is in good form and I think he is well capable of outrunning the price, with the James Owen horse the obvious danger.
01 June 2024
23:30 Deontay Wilder v Zhilei Zhang

Zhilei Zhang KO TKO or Disqualification

Outcome 5-Way

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

50

Wilder looks to be coming to the end of his career and in this battle of the big hitters, I just can't see past Zhang putting him away after his poor performance against Joseph Parker. Hard to see the fight going the distance too, given their heavy punching styles and I expect Zhang to win in the first half of the fight.
22:30 Daniel Dubois v Filip Hrgovic

Filip Hrgovic

Win Fight

440 WIN

@1.44

Lose

-440

I think Hrgovic is a really strong prospect in the heavyweight division and despite this being an eliminator for mandatory challenger status, he might just have to be patient even if he wins as I expect him to. He's a strong fighter with a classy amateur background and whilst he has a typically Eastern European style, I think he will simply be too tough for Dubois. Dubois has been beaten by Usyk but its the defeat by Joe Joyce that makes me question him at this level and I'd expect Hrgovic to take control in the middle rounds and finish Dubois off late or take a convincing points win.
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Los Angeles

Daily Racing

200 EWNAP

@7.00

Win

40

Los Angeles has drifted heavily since the jockey bookings were announced but I see no reason for it. At around 4/1 a few days before the race, I'd have made him a bet so at 6/1 he looks great each way value. I'm happy to take on City of Troy, he could destroy them, but in my book, the odds of him winning this are much higher and I think the selection is where the value lies. He's unbeaten in 3 starts, has proven stamina (by a derby winning sire, Camelot) and looks to have a solid temperament and nice balance from what I've seen so far. I think he should be a 3/1 shot or 7/2 at biggest, so getting double that is just lovely.
16:15 4:15 Hexham

Serious Ego

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

This looks a solid play with strong course form and especially given the changing weather in recent weeks, the heavy ground. Conor Rabbitt's claim offsets the 5lb pen for his Perth win and that form has been franked with Iolani winning at Cartmel earlier this week.
15:25 3:25 Musselburgh

Stenton Glider

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.75

Lose

-50

Stenton Glider is a nice horse but has been hard to win with, only winning a debut novice while managing to be rated 104. She's dropped into listed class today having been run at group 2 and 3 level this season and I think she'll find a way to get some winning black type on her record, which is probably an important part of the next stage of her career as a mare.
23 May 2024
17:50 5:50 Catterick

Josiebond

Daily Racing

75 EWNAP

@SP

Lose

-150

Josie Bond has a great record on ground with a bit of cut and gets those ideal conditions today with the trip of 7f also looking spot on. The prev run should have her in tip top condition and shes on a lovely mark of 48.

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