Welshboy

I toyed with backing Tom Ellis' Receipt to back up his recent flat win on handicap debut as he's unexposed and can go well again under a penalty. However, I really like the claims of Richard Hughes' Notimeforchitchat, who loves it round here and although he might prefer a mile, he can go well fresh and is on a nice enough mark off 78. I'd expect him to be held up and finish fast, so he'll need an element of luck in running but I think he is value at 16/1 each way 4 places.

I think PSG should be around a 9/4 chance so at 100/30, they look massive value here. Bayern need to win to overturn the first leg 5-4 deficit, so they'll have to take chances and PSG's attack is ideally set up for the counter. I think it could be close, in which case Bayern could get caught late on when chasing but the away side are just too big here.

I'll be intrigued to see if talisman Morgan Gibbs-White makes the game following his head injury on Monday but that was another win on a great Forest run and at the same time, Villa's form has dipped. The away side can sit deep and counter and I think they are over-priced as the form team of the team and with a lead to defend.