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Blues Singer is the Timeform selection and market favourite in this Hexham novice hurdle. He showed encouragement at Huntingdon last time and is open to significant improvement on just his second hurdles start. Timeform believe he can improve on the bare form and beat the standard-setter Red Oak. Hexham's tight, right-handed track suits a prominent-racing novice, and the good ground is ideal. Keep stakes sensible given the close market with Red Oak.

Raby Mere looks like the standout mathematical play in a very weak Class 4 handicap. He comes here with prime fitness after a very strong win at Southwell just 20 days ago over 3 miles. He handles good ground perfectly and looks extremely well handicapped, carrying just 11st 2lb against heavier, out-of-form rivals. With the favorite Ilitch arriving with massive question marks after a dismal run last time out, this race should fall perfectly for Raby Mere. He maps to sit prominently off what looks to be a slow pace, allowing him to strike on this sharp track.

Expressionless is the win selection in this weak Class 5 handicap. He ran 16 days ago at Doncaster, finishing an encouraging 3rd of 15 ??" a deep field on his reappearance over a shorter trip than today's 1m 3f 179y. Timeform confirm he "will be at least as effective back over further," and he is now expected to strip fitter second time out. Trainer Dylan Cunha has positive profit figures at Leicester. In a small field where rivals fail the fitness and form checks, this is a straightforward win profile.

I am strongly opposing Annie Nail in this race. She is being turned out just seven days after a grueling 3-mile chase victory, making her a massive 'bounce' risk at short odds. With several others having major jumping or stamina doubts, Fortunefavorsdbold is the standout mathematical play. She arrives in the perfect 22-day fitness window and boasts a highly consistent recent profile. Crucially, she is a proven distance winner over 3 miles. In a small five-runner field lacking pace, she can track the leaders prominently and avoid the jumping errors that plague her rivals.

Wreck It Ryley is the course-and-distance winner in this 6f sprint handicap. He is the only runner proven to win at Leicester over exactly this trip. He ran just 17 days ago at Newcastle, placing him inside the prime fitness window, and returns to the good turf where he has his best form. Andrew Mount, At The Races, and Timeform all highlight his C&D credentials. In a field where the majority of rivals are returning from 45+ day breaks, his fitness advantage is substantial.

Natus Vincere will take all the market money here for the Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen connection, but she must be opposed. She is carrying a punishing top weight of 11st 12lb over nearly 3 miles on this tight Fakenham track, which is a massive ask for a mare stepping up in trip. The value lies entirely with Dartmouth Rose. She arrives in the perfect fitness window following a strong win just 20 days ago. Crucially, she is already a proven course winner around these sharp Fakenham turns. In a small four-runner field that is likely to turn into a tactical crawl, she can dominate from the front and easily outstay the burdened favorite.

Red Mirage is the value play against a shaky favourite. Timeform makes him their selection after a solid Doncaster run last time, while the market favourite Albeseeingyer carries a "leap of faith required" Timeform tag despite being short in the market. A disconnect between market price and analyst verdict is exactly the value trigger the data looks for. Red Mirage fits the fitness window, handles good ground, and is the more reliable profile at the better price.

Engross is my NAP based on clean data. He won 18 days ago at Chelmsford, going away at the line on his handicap debut ??" a horse ahead of the assessor. Trainer James Fanshawe strikes at 20% at Leicester over five seasons ??" one of the best trainer??"course combinations on today's entire card. Timeform explicitly state, "more to come switched to turf, with this even longer trip sure to be in his favour." In a four-runner race lacking depth, this is as clean a NAP profile as you will find today.