MonthlyJoyride

Aston Villa have only won 1 of their last 4 league games. Here they travel to a Bournemouth side who are trending in the opposite direction. Bournemouth have really steadied their ship, coming in off back-to-back wins in the league and a narrow single-goal defeat to champions-elect Arsenal being their only league defeat in their last 6.

Burnley have had a horrible run of fixtures of late, and I think have actually competed better than the results suggest in all but their last game at Sunderland. Footballers hate being written off, so they will be keen to put in a performance in front of their own fans here. They may be in luck facing a West Ham side who could still be smarting from blowing a 2-0 halftime lead at Stamford Bridge last week.

Everton have been draw specialists for a while now, with four of them in the last seven league games played. They even had an FA Cup tie against Sunderland in the middle of that run which also ended all square after 90 minutes.

Recency bias and narrative are playing too big of a role in the pricing of this one in my opinion. Newcastle have won 7 of their 12 home league games and Brentford have lost 8 of their 12 away league games. Getting a good clip over evens for the home side here looks a treat.

A three-time winner on the DP World Tour level, few can match Antoine Rozner in terms of proven winning pedigree in this field. One of those wins was in this venue in 2021. His more recent history here makes for great reading, with finishes of T6 and 4th in the last two years. He has missed the cut in his last couple of events, but his game hasn't looked in bad shape. Those missed cuts are likely getting us a price double what he would and perhaps should be here given his history.

With finishes of 3rd and T9 inside his last three outings, and 13 of his last 15 rounds (only 3 rounds on play in Alfred Dunhill Championship) under par, Casey Jarvis looks primed to be the next cab off the rank in terms of maiden DP World Tour titles.

Hennie du Plessis has never missed a cut here at the Qatar Masters. In honesty, his finishes should be better given the calibre of his game and the course suitability. He has a few finishes between T19 and T27 and is coming in with recent similar results: T25, T19, and T16 in his last three events. His ball striking should elevate him above most this week. If he can find some heat with the putter, I do like his chances of being in the mix.

Oliver Lindell tailed off after a good start for a T14 finish here at the Qatar Masters last year and returns somehow still in search of his first DP World Tour win. His recent form is indicative of a guy who will make that breakthrough at some stage this year. He arrives here with 12 of his last 16 rounds under par and is coming fresh off a T9 finish in Bahrain, where his game looked in great shape with rounds of 67, 71, 69, and 68.

Ugo Coussaud was runner-up here at the Qatar Masters in 2024 and has had 7 of his 8 rounds played in the event under par. He's also coming in hot off a sixth-place finish in Bahrain last week with impressive rounds of 67, 68, 71 and 67, which perfectly illustrate how high the floor of his game is right now. Could this be a ceiling week and a breakthrough DP World Tour title for the amiable Frenchman?

Austin Eckroat should be a good match here, but to this point it has not proven to be the case. He is a good ball-striker and can get hot with the putter, so that would play well, especially here. He could be value at triple-digit odds here. His three opening rounds so far this season are 67, 66, and 67, so he has certainly been starting better than he has been finishing.

There were positive signs with a cut made at the Farmers for Cam Davis, and it was a poor final round of 79, which makes his T70 finish look worse than how he actually played on a tough setup. When he catches fire, he can score with the best of them. With a nice late tee time, where conditions are expected to be easier than the morning, he looks a good price to get himself into the top handful of positions on the leaderboard.

Max Greyserman finished T49 on debut here last year, and I expect him to go much better now that he knows what to expect in the most unique atmosphere on tour. His ball striking can outdo most in the field. Why not take a guy who has had struggles getting over the finish line on Sundays and instead get him onside for the opening round?

Min Woo Lee finished T12 here last year. He looked a lot more comfortable on the setup after finishing T71 on debut the year before. He opened with a 62 in the first round last week, and I like him to get off to a fast start here again this week. There is maybe more value in taking guys for FRL before Scheffler looms on the weekend.

Hideki Matsuyama is a two-time winner of this event and has another runner-up finish here as well on a setup that is a serious ball-strikers' paradise amid the party atmosphere. He is one of the very few who can live with Scheffler on second-shot golf courses as a fellow owner of a Green Jacket.

Hideki Matsuyama looks good value here for First Round Leader. He's likely on the right side of the draw for the opening round, with tougher conditions forecast for the morning tee times. Having one of the pre-tournament favorites on the other side and the calibre of Hideki should provide plenty of upside.