MonthlyJoyride

Anton Albers went close to his first win at this level with his runner-up finish at the GAC Rosa Challenge Tour event. This was signposted by his good form coming in there with finishes of T14, T9, and T12 in his three previous outings. Going so close and not getting over the line, having been playing well, seemed to set him back a bit as he missed his next two cuts. But he has since rebounded well and finished T15 and T7 in his last couple of events. This shows he is yet again trending in the right direction. Having experienced it once before, I wouldn't be surprised if the impressive young German took the lessons from past experience and closed the deal here this week.

Davis Bryant could be considered a bit of a ranger here this week considering the year he has had in his fleeting appearances on the DP World Tour. He has had some very credible finishes in good level events with fields of opposition that dwarf what he is facing here this week. He finished T10 at the Italian Open, T13 at the British Masters, and T4 at the BMW International Open, all well-established main tour events. So here in the Challenge Tour final, I like him to rock up with the main man on campus vibes and get in the mix for the win.

Victor Pastor has four podium finishes at Challenge Tour level, one of which came earlier this season at Challenge de Cadiz. He has been struggling for form for most of the year but sparked into life last time out with a 6th place finish at the Hangzhou Open where his opening grid of 63 showed how low he can go in good conditions, which has been a trait of his fledgling career to date. His 'talent odds' would be a mere fraction of what we are getting here, so I like being early on him and taking the chance that he carries on from that 6th place finish and can get in the mix here again.

Leicester being substantially odds-on here for a side who have only won 1 of their last 8 league games looks wrong to me. While they haven't been great themselves, Blackburn had a good upset win over Southampton last time out. So, I think they can take another positive result away with them here from this one.

Portsmouth have drawn 3 of their 5 away league games so far this season, and in the other two, they won by a single goal at Oxford and were beaten by a single goal at Ipswich. Generally, very tightly contested when they go on the road, and I think that makes the draw look the value here in this one.

Brighton look generously priced for the home win here where they are still unbeaten in the league and have beaten both Man City and Newcastle. Here they host a Leeds side who have lost 3 of their 4 away league games so far this season, including defeats at both Fulham and Burnley.

Burnley under Scott Parker are very much attempting to be a team version of this very Arsenal side, with their main aim being to limit their opposition's attacking chances to a minimum. If they can find a goal at the other end, all well and good. Arsenal are, of course, more expansive and are limited by sides sitting deep against them. However, they are happy to not overly force it. When two sides meet who attempt similar things, but the gap in player quality is as extreme as it is here, there is usually only one outcome. I think the result here will be another 3 points on the board for the Gunners.

Brentford have come away empty-handed in 3 of their 4 away league games to this point, with their only positive result away from home being against a hapless West Ham side. Palace look good value for the home win here as they continue to impress week after week.

5 goals conceded in their last couple of league games for this Wolves side. Considering they were playing against two sides in Sunderland and Burnley, who were expected to be battling with them at the foot of the table before the season began, that is particularly worrying. Fulham have not looked as reliable as they have for the past couple of seasons, but at home, they are still more like their old selves and are only conceding 0.67 gpg at the Cottage, which should provide a solid base for them to get the home win here.

Nottm Forest are already looking like a more solid outfit and more like their old selves under Dyche. With this being a battle between two managers who very much like to value the point to ebb what and try to win the game on fine margins, I see it possibly being a largely uneventful encounter and think the draw looks the value outcome.

QPR have only lost 1 of their 5 home league games to this point in the season with a couple of draws in there. They host an Ipswich side still looking for their first away win of the season. I don't think it will come here as it's a tough place to visit, but I think a 3rd away draw of the season away from home for Ipswich and the same in terms of home draws for QPR could be on the cards.

Sheffield United have only won 1 of their 5 home league games so far this season and could find it a frustrating day here as they host what can be a stubborn Derby side who have taken draws away at both Wrexham and Ipswich and won at West Brom. So they are certainly no pushovers away from home. The draw looks the value to me.

Southampton look incorrectly short odds-on favorites for the win here considering they still have the same lingering habits of not putting sides to the sword, which 3 draws from their 5 home league games to this point in the season illustrates. Preston have drawn 2 of their 5 away league games, and I think it could well be another here.

Thomas Frank and Enzo Mareca are arguably the two managers in the league who cater their tactical approach for each specific opponent more than any others. I think they will very likely cancel each other out here in what is usually a fiercely competitive London derby. Both sides show flashes, but neither are reliable or consistent, so I like the look of the draw between them.

Aston Villa looked much more like their old selves last time out with their impressive win over Man City at Villa Park. I think they can get something here against an out-of-sorts Liverpool side. Three of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides have ended all square, so I like siding with the draw as the value here, with Liverpool, in my eyes, prohibitively short in the betting.

John Catlin didn't do a whole lot wrong in his missed cut at the International Series Philippines last time out with rounds of 71 and 72. His performance the outing prior in Macao was far more encouraging with a T10 finish. With 10 career wins to his name, he is among the most winningest players in the field. He isn't the most consistent as his career path shows, but in terms of ceiling, he certainly knows how to convert chances at a far better rate than the levels of opposition he regularly competes against.

Sampson Zheng has been playing solid of late with finishes of T19, T28, and then his best finish of the year so far last time out with a T4 at the International Series Philippines being his three most recent outings. In the Philippines, he had a mediocre start with an opening round of 71 but built himself into the event with following rounds of 66, 62, and 69 to end up in that tie for 4th. His ball striking is the strength of his game, so he can handle both types of conditions with wind far from an obstacle for him. In fact, he seemingly thrives in it where others falter.

Still just 21 years old, Ding Wenyi is one of the brightest young stars in the game and looks to be trending in the right direction at a time of year where movement on the world rankings is more than possible with a lot winding down for the year. He has been solid, if not spectacular, this year with only 4 missed cuts in his 23 starts but has had a lot of middling finishes. His best finish and result for the year to date came in Macao last time out with a 3rd placed finish where his game looked as polished and well-rounded as it has for a while, with good and consistent scores of 63, 69, 65, and 67 pointing to a very high floor game which should serve him well this week.

With 11 wins across the Japanese and Asian Tours, few if any in this field can hold a candle to Kazuki Higa when it comes to getting into contention and crossing the line. With his recent good form coming in here, I think he can be a serious danger to the market leaders and bigger names. He recently showed his teeth even at PGA Tour level where he finished T18 at the Baycurrent Classic with two good rounds of 64 and 66 mixed in with a couple of average scores of 72 and 73. It was largely his putter which decides how low he goes as his ball striking is ever reliable. He finished T2 last time out at International Series Philippines, finishing with a final round 65 to go close, and I think he can carry that form in here this week.

Wang Wei Hsuan has won 3 times this season on the PGA Tour of Taiwan-Chinese Taipei and has no fewer than four other podium finishes across that tour and the Asian Tour. His length off the tee provides him a good base to operate from compared to most of his competitors at this level, with him usually averaging in the 315-yard range in driving distance. He shot a final round 62 last time out to get into a playoff at the SJM Macao Open where he was beaten, but that form and confidence coming in this week could lead to a breakout win for him.

Newcastle being as short as they are here looks wrong to me. As poor as West Ham have been, Newcastle have not impressed away from home in the league this season, where they are still winless from their 4 away league games played and have actually failed to score in 3 of those 4. West Ham couldn't be relied upon either, so I like the look of the draw as a result.

Bournemouth being where they are sitting in the table is by no means a fluke. In fact, it is well merited, and they could arguably have even more points on the board, having conceded basically a last kick of the game penalty to drop points at Palace and being the better side but somehow losing at Anfield on the opening weekend. Man City are still struggling for balance in transitions without Rodri, having looked a lot more stable for the few weeks he was back in action. Bournemouth have all the tools to expose them here. I think this could be more dropped points for Man City and another positive result for what could be a campaign to remember for the Cherries.

Sunderland have won 3 of their 4 home league games to this point. Here they host an Everton side who have been beaten in 3 of their 4 away league games, with their only positive result away from home coming against bottom of the table Wolves. Sunderland look great value here to build on their impressive 3-point haul at Stamford Bridge last time out.

A former World Champion and a multiple-time major winner outside of that as well, Gerwyn Price is looking close to returning to his best this year, as well as looking in great shape physically. Obviously, defending champion Luke Littler is going to be the near even-money favorite to successfully go back to back. But Price is one of the very few players who do not have a losing head-to-head record against Littler, with them currently standing at 7 wins each against each other. He is also one of the rare two or three players who can stay with him in bursts of scoring. So at double-digit odds, I think he represents value to claim his own second World Championship before either Littler or Humphries do.

Josh Rock is emerging as a top 5 player in the world. He has steadily risen since bursting on the scene and has now backed up his haul of floor titles with a couple of European Tour titles on the stage. This year, he won the World Cup alongside Gurney for Northern Ireland. He is also starting to make serious headway in major TV events with notable wins over the likes of van Gerwen and Price. I think he will finish the year strongly and come the time of the World Championships, he could well enter the event as 3rd or 4th favorite at odds in the teens.