CapnBob

Dundee have qualified top, no matter what others in their group do. Caley Thistle arrive on the back of good news about new investment. The fact that Dundee don't need to play for a result, means they could lose their competitive edge, whilst Inverness still remain with a chance of finishing 2nd themselves and progressing to the next round. A narrow home win or draw may be the likely outcome with Inverness perhaps not having the quality to beat their SPL opponents, but perhaps they may spring a surprise here at these odds.

Banik lost their opening game of the new season at a club who finished in the relegation group last season as did today's opponents. They won emphatically on Thursday in the Euro Conference league against a side from Armenia. Jablonec began with a win on the opening day against Mlada Boleslav who finished a place & a point behind Banik in the Championship group. Last season, Jablonec won at Ostrava, one of only two away wins in the normal season.

Blackburn could shade this game, however, they finished the season with the 2nd worst home record with their form on the road saving Eustace's side. They are without a win in seven at home & they haven't netted more than a goal in 7x since a 3-1 win against Stoke in Feb. Derby achieved automatic promotion by being solid & consistent rather than spectacular & finished 2nd in the away standings & top of the defensive charts. A busy summer has meant a lot of upheaval though key loan star Ebou Adams has permanently rejoined to restore some continuity. Warne is unbeaten in two H2Hs against Eustace. The Rams have played twice in recent years on a Friday opening game (drawing at Sunderland in 2017 by this score-line & winning under Lampard at Reading in '18)

Perhaps the most predictable & unoriginal of score-lines, Rovers are winless in seven at home but may fancy their chances of getting 3pts here against a promoted side. Last season though, Blackburn failed to win against any of the promoted sides (1D 2L). Derby, too, may fancy their chances of taking something here against one of last season's worst performers at home (2nd worst record). Ben Osborn is yet to win in five visits but has drawn on two occasions with Forest (transfermarkt). Veteran Barkhuizen could play a part if he remains at the club as he has scored at these opponents when playing for Lancashire rivals, Preston.

Historically, Boro haven't won more than four games in a row against these opponents (11v11) , however, Michael Carrick's side perhaps underachieved last season when many expected them to challenge, but could rediscover the form that saw them reach the play-offs. Striker Latte Lath finished the season in strong form. Swansea appear to be a side in transition, they showed glimpses of progress under new coach Luke Williams of redisovering their identity, but this is a difficult challenge for them against a side expected to challenge at the top of the table in a Championship that appears more open than last season.

A promoted side face a challenging start, but Norwich will be starting life under a new coach & probably a new style which was one of the reasons David Wagner lost his job. It may take time for Norwich's squad to adapt though they have the players able to make this switch. Des Buckingham made an indifferent start but Oxford finished League 1 as the form side & took that into the play-offs. 14/22 wins came against lower half sides & they only won 2 at home against the top half (5D 4L). Perhaps though this may be an opportune moment to play a side in transition as Norwich's away record was pehaps one reason for Wagner's detractors (11L, joint 6th worst) & they lost to all three promoted sides last season. According to 11v11, Oxford are yet to beat Norwich in the month of August (2 matches) but are yet to lose back to back at home.

Cheltenham look quite short in a game that pits Mike Flynn against his home-town team, where he experienced his most successful spell as a manager. Cheltenham don't have the best H2H record at home against these opponents (1W) & games tend to be quite tight. The main reason for this pick is that Cheltenham have brought in experienced players, former player Pell, and former Newport stalwart, Scot Bennett. Meanwhile, Newport look very interesting to watch as Huw Jenkins attempts to repeat his success at Swansea by implementing a possession-based game in L2. If anyone can succeed in doing this, it is Jenkins but it may take time for these ideas to filter and mistakes could be made (playing the ball out from the back) & Cheltenham could capitalize on this.

The main reason for going against Walsall is the odds. Morecambe were favourites for relegation following a transfer embargo, but signed 15 players after it was lifted including offering new contracts to three of last season's playing staff. Derek Adams performed miracles in his first spell, and is capable of gelling a bunch of disparate players together. Walsall have seen key midfielder Isaac Hutchinson exit, a player who featured high in the L2 goal/assists.tally. Both sides ended last season in erratic form. Walsall fell away from the play-offs with 3W in 11(2D 6L) & Morecambe had 2W in the last 11 (8L) and are winless in five. They did end 9th in the away charts. A draw appears the most likely outcome. Walsall may take their end of season form into the new season & Adams may galvanize Morecambe.

Bristol Rovers ended the season with a disappointing run of form, especially at home, Matt Taylor has gone about reshaping the team, bringing in young potential including record signing Promise Omochere (attack), & the likes of Isaac Hutchinson, viewed as a creative replacement for Anthony Evans. Their pre-season form has been good albeit against non-league opponents. Northampton enjoyed a strong return to League 1, however, one reason for this pick is that on loan Marc Leonard , the Cobblers' player of the year, left to join Birmingham & another key midfielder McWilliams left to join Rotherham, though Brady, highly regarded for his work with young loan players, has brought in another PL loanee as a replacement but it may take time for the midfield unit to gel after these changes. Influential loan player Bowie has also returned to his parent club after a two year spell with the Cobblers.

Steve Evans & Rotherham appear well-suited, he is yet to beat Gary Caldwell in three H2H matches (2D) so a draw could be in prospect, but Rotherham are one of the bigger guns in this division, and Evans has acted quickly in the transfer market to reshape the squad. He has won at Exeter twice, once with Rotherham during his first spell and then with Mansfield. This could be a tight hard fought encounter, perhaps ending all square, but Rotherham could nick this encounter. However, Rotherham are yet to win back to back away games (11v11) against these opponents and are currently on their joint best sequence of 2W.

Stevenage begin life after Steve Evans & face a Shrewsbury side who were the lowest scorers in the division last season. However, the return of Paul Hurst saw them avoid relegation & improve on the road where they gained 3 of their five away wins (4D 2L) with the losses at Lincoln & Portsmouth. Stevenage finished the season with 2W in 12 (6D 4L). This could very well end in a stalemate, however the odds appeal on the away side. They have let a few key players leave, but Hurst masterminded a definite upturn in form, certainly on the road. The jury is out on whether Alex Revell can emulate Evans' success.

Wrexham began life back in the EFL with a home loss, so this is a more challenging fixture than the odds suggest, against a Wycombe side who ended the season unbeaten in 7 & with only 1L in 11, which came against champions Portsmouth, as well as being unbeaten in six on the road. Wrexham only lost three at home and were usually free-scoring, Wycombe ended the season with the 7th best defence. The points may be shared here, Wycombe, too, appear a club on the up after they were taken over by a new owner in March.

It will probably be wiser to post nearer the time, as Derby may add to their squad, but at the time of posting, Paul Warne is in need of rebuilding a midfield that has seen the likes of Korey Smith & Conor Hourihane leave and Max Bird join up with Bristol City as well as on loan Ebou Adams return to Cardiff. Adams' return could make a difference. Chesterfield won the Conference though their form dipped but perhaps that is excusable after they won the division at a canter. Paul Cook has lost an EFL Cup tie to Warne, but he won their first meeting, an away win, & he also recorded a famous EFL first round cup win as manager of a then League 2 Portsmouth against a Championship Derby. If the Rams fail to bring in enough new players by the time this tie comes round, Warne is likely to field/rotate the team & the squad lacks depth. Chesterfield are likely to bring a sizeable away contingent. The Rams have a poor recent record in this competition & have scraped through after penalties against League 2 opposition in '20 & '21 (round 1).

Promoted Ipswich were boosted by Kieran McKenna's decision to stay. He presided over a consecutive shock promotion & Ipswich may take the spirit he has instilled. Ipswich signed Hutchinson on a permanent, a player who was key to their promotion. Ipswich haven't signed many experienced PL players relying instead on promising players such as Delap, Greaves. Liverpool begin life without Klopp & this could be a challenging first game for Slot with Ipswich as underdogs in a cup-tie atmosphere. Ipswich already showed great energy in the Championship. Liverpool. One reason for this pick is that Liverpool had a large number of players involved in both Euro '24 (the England contingent, Gakpo & van Dijk for Holland) & Copa America (Mac Allister, Nunez, Luis Diaz), so the squad has done a lot of travelling & fatigue could be a factor with some members practically having played non-stop football for the calendar year. If Ipswich can match Liverpool for energy, they could spring a surprise here. In the PL era, Ipswich have drawn their first game at home on the last two occasions after promotion.

Liverpool have conceded in their last five on the road in the PL, and did concede a goal at another promoted side last season (Luton) in a 1-1 draw. Ipswich have managed to draw their first home game against Liverpool on the last two occasions they were promoted back to the PL (both score draws).

Ipswich are unbeaten in 21 at home, though as seen with Burnley, things can quickly change upon promotion. Liverpool finished the season winless in their last three on the road (two unbeaten) & conceding in their last five road games. Interestingly, they only lost 3x away, & beat two of the promoted sides, but they did draw at Luton by this score-line.