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Space Race Betting: 95% Chance that Bezos wins the race against Musk

Steve Madgwick

Published: Oct 14, 8:21am Last Updated: Oct 15, 10:15am 0 Comments 7 Views

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has taken William Shatner to the edge of space

Photo: Van Ha, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

William Shatner became the oldest man at 90 years of age to go to Space when he took the 11-minute suborbital space flight aboard the craft from Amazon Owner Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin project.

Captain Kirk really has been in space now, but as he said himself, this is just the beginning. The space race has just begun in earnest with benchmarks such as the Karman Line and Mars yet come from three companies with rather famous front men all exploring.

  • SpaceX - Elon Musk
  • Blue Origin - Jess Bezos
  • Virgin Galactic - Richard Branson

Bookmakers are betting on a couple of targets in the sights in the eyes of these intrepid explorers.

Captain Kirk finally got to Space thanks to Blue origin who are given a 95% chance by betting sites that the Bezos company will be the first to go beyond the Karman Line. A £20 bet will win £1 if they do, such is the confidence.

Steve Madgwick - Senior Editor -

Karman Line

There is much disagreement or at least discussion to this day as to where Space starts. From a betting perspective, one thought being used as a target is the Karman Line, named after Hungarian physicist Theodore von Kármán who decided that space was 50 miles up, although the official Karma line today is 100 kilometers above sea level (62 miles)

So who will first to take passengers to and beyond the Karman Line?

Space Race Betting: First to go beyond the Karman Line

Company Odds Probability
Blue Origin 1/20 95.24%
Space X 8/1 11.11%
Virgin Galactic 16/1 5.88%


Elon Musk and the Space X project are considered to have eyes a little further into the distance and are favorites to win the Space Race to a little further than the 62 miles of the Karman Line.

More than 30 million miles further in fact as Space X are 1/10 favorites with a 90% chance of being the first to reach the red planet.

Space X have their eye focussed far further into space and the future and bookies go just 1/10 that they will be the first to reach Mars; 90% probability

Steve Madgwick - Senior Editor -

Space Race: First to Reach Mars Betting

Company Odds Probability
Space X 1/10 90.91%
Blue Origin 6/1 14.29%
Virgin Galactic 20/1 4.76%

Not the First

Virgin Galactic is not favoured by the bookmakers to get to the Karman Line or Mars before Blue Origin or Space X and I'll leave to make up your own jokes.


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