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Robert Webb's Odds Slashed by Bookmakers Ahead of Strictly Come Dancing

Steve Madgwick

Published: Aug 17, 9:57am Last Updated: Aug 23, 10:51am 0 Comments 112 Views

Robert Webb - Strictly Come Dancing. Photo: BBC

Early Betting Market Move

There has already been an early and significant move in the betting market for Strictly Come Dancing.

Peep Show Comedian Robert Webb was initially installed as a 12/1 chance to be the winner of the show, representing a 7.69% chance of victory.

That probability has doubled to 14% with his odds sliced in half to just 6/1 to be 2nd favourite behind McFly's Tom Fletcher.

Having taken a look at the various celebrities' Twitter following, we have noticed that the betting odds closely resemble each star's popularity.

Peep Show star Robert Webb's odds with bookmakers to win Strictly Come Dancing have halved in line with his half a million following on Twitter

Steve Madgwick - Entertainment betting specialist - olbg.com

Most Popular Celebrities by Social Platform

Platform Celebrity Followers Bookies Odds
Twitter Tom Fletcher 1,200,000 4/1
Instagram Tom Fletcher 2,000,000 4/1
Tik Tok Tilly Ramsay 9,500,000 11/1

Twitter and Instagram Popularity

Last year's winner Bill Bailey was originally given virtually no chance of winning by the bookmakers and was available at 80/1 - just about 1% chance according to the odds.

He has a 3.3m fan base on Twitter,m a number no contestant for Strictly 2021 can match.

Tom Fletcher, the current favourite with Bookmakers has the highest figures with 1.2m twitter followers and 2m fans on Instagram

Celebrities Probability by Odds, Twitter and Insta Followers

Celebrity
Bookies % Twitter Fans % Insta Fans %
Tom Fletcher 4/1 20% 1200000 41.3% 2000000 45.15%
Robert Webb 6/1 14.29% 521400 17.87% n/a -
Dan Walker 6/1 14.29% 722800 24.78% 20000 4.51%
Adam Peaty 7/1 12.50% 126700 4.3% 542000 12.24%
Rhys Stephenson 8/1 11.11% 729 0.02% 6572 0.15%
Rose Ayling-Ellis 8/1 11.11% 4907 0.17% 23100 0.52%
Tilly Ramsay 11/1 8.33% n/a - 935000 21.11%
Katie McGlynn 14/1 6.67% 104600 3.59 313000 7.07%
Ugo Monye 14/1 6.67% 114800 3.94% 70500 1.59%
AJ Odudu 16/1 5.88% 29300 1.00% 92400 2.09%
Sara Davies 20/114/1 4.76% 29400 1.01% 51800 1.17%
Judi Love 20/1 4.76% 19800 0.68% 190000 4.29%
Nina Wadia 25/1 3.85% 42900 1.47% 5542 0.13%

 *John Thwaite and Greg Wise do not appear in the table as no official social accounts can be found

BIll Bailey won strictly in 2020 with 3.3m twitter followers, only Tom Fletcher can come close in 2021 with the highest share with 1.2m fans

Steve Madgwick - Entertainment betting specialist - olbg.com

3.2m Follows for Tom Fletcher

Tom Fletcher sits atop of the betting with bookmakers with odds of just 4/1 to win the show - a 20% probability derived from the market.

His social following is greater across both twitter and Instagram platforms, where he has over 43% of all followers of all contestants.

If the betting odds mirrored the social following of the celebrities on the show, Tom Fletcher has double the chance the bookmakers have given him, with 43% of the combined social followers of ALL contestants.

Steve Madgwick - Entertainment betting specialist - olbg.com

Tilly Ramsays 9.5m Tik Tok followers

Whilst Tilly Ramsay can not boast a huge Twitter following, no one comes even close to matching her 9.5m followers on tik tok.

Only Adam Peaty can boast a six-figure following at just over 100,000, whilst the remainder is either not on the platform or having followers only in the tens of thousands.

If bookmakers odds were based on the number of tik tok followers the celebrities have, it would be a one-horse race and Tilly Ramsay would be a walkover

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