I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Peep Show star Robert Webb's betting odds have been halved by bookmakers
- The current betting market for Strictly closely follows each of the stars social media following figures
- Tom Fletcher owns 43% of the combined social following on Twitter and Instagram of all contestants.
- Tilly Ramsay could be the dark horse in the betting at 12/1 with a huge tik-tok fan base
- Last year's winner Bill Bailey's 3.3 million Twitter followers show the power of social followings.
Early Betting Market Move
There has already been an early and significant move in the betting market for Strictly Come Dancing.
Peep Show Comedian Robert Webb was initially installed as a 12/1 chance to be the winner of the show, representing a 7.69% chance of victory.
That probability has doubled to 14% with his odds sliced in half to just 6/1 to be 2nd favourite behind McFly's Tom Fletcher.
Having taken a look at the various celebrities' Twitter following, we have noticed that the betting odds closely resemble each star's popularity.
Most Popular Celebrities by Social Platform
| Platform | Celebrity | Followers | Bookies Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Fletcher | 1,200,000 | 4/1 | |
| Tom Fletcher | 2,000,000 | 4/1 | |
| Tik Tok | Tilly Ramsay | 9,500,000 | 11/1 |
Twitter and Instagram Popularity
Last year's winner Bill Bailey was originally given virtually no chance of winning by the bookmakers and was available at 80/1 - just about 1% chance according to the odds.
He has a 3.3m fan base on Twitter,m a number no contestant for Strictly 2021 can match.
Tom Fletcher, the current favourite with Bookmakers has the highest figures with 1.2m twitter followers and 2m fans on Instagram
Celebrities Probability by Odds, Twitter and Insta Followers
| Celebrity |
|
Bookies % | Twitter Fans | % | Insta Fans | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Fletcher | 4/1 | 20% | 1200000 | 41.3% | 2000000 | 45.15% |
| Robert Webb | 6/1 | 14.29% | 521400 | 17.87% | n/a | - |
| Dan Walker | 6/1 | 14.29% | 722800 | 24.78% | 20000 | 4.51% |
| Adam Peaty | 7/1 | 12.50% | 126700 | 4.3% | 542000 | 12.24% |
| Rhys Stephenson | 8/1 | 11.11% | 729 | 0.02% | 6572 | 0.15% |
| Rose Ayling-Ellis | 8/1 | 11.11% | 4907 | 0.17% | 23100 | 0.52% |
| Tilly Ramsay | 11/1 | 8.33% | n/a | - | 935000 | 21.11% |
| Katie McGlynn | 14/1 | 6.67% | 104600 | 3.59 | 313000 | 7.07% |
| Ugo Monye | 14/1 | 6.67% | 114800 | 3.94% | 70500 | 1.59% |
| AJ Odudu | 16/1 | 5.88% | 29300 | 1.00% | 92400 | 2.09% |
| Sara Davies | 20/114/1 | 4.76% | 29400 | 1.01% | 51800 | 1.17% |
| Judi Love | 20/1 | 4.76% | 19800 | 0.68% | 190000 | 4.29% |
| Nina Wadia | 25/1 | 3.85% | 42900 | 1.47% | 5542 | 0.13% |
*John Thwaite and Greg Wise do not appear in the table as no official social accounts can be found
3.2m Follows for Tom Fletcher
Tom Fletcher sits atop of the betting with bookmakers with odds of just 4/1 to win the show - a 20% probability derived from the market.
His social following is greater across both twitter and Instagram platforms, where he has over 43% of all followers of all contestants.
Tilly Ramsays 9.5m Tik Tok followers
Whilst Tilly Ramsay can not boast a huge Twitter following, no one comes even close to matching her 9.5m followers on tik tok.
Only Adam Peaty can boast a six-figure following at just over 100,000, whilst the remainder is either not on the platform or having followers only in the tens of thousands.
If bookmakers odds were based on the number of tik tok followers the celebrities have, it would be a one-horse race and Tilly Ramsay would be a walkover
