Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
- Labour are the heavy favourites to win the Newcastle-under-Lyme seat at the upcoming General Election
- Conservatives are 5/2 to hold the seat after winning it back in 2019
- Odds also given on the Harrow East seat at the next UK General Election
Labour are the heavy favourites to win the Newcastle-under-Lyme seat at the upcoming General Election
With the latest UK General Election expected to take place at some point before the end of this year, bookies are offering odds on various local constituencies with betting market around who will win specific seats.
Newcastle-under-Lyme is one of those seats featured with the Staffordshire constituency currently seeing Conservative MP Aaron Bell lead the way after winning the seat in 2019.
5 years on we may well see Labour win the seat back after having held it for 100 years before Bell was voted in as the Member of Parliament for Newcastle-under-Lyme in the 2019 vote.
Labour in Newcastle-under-Lyme will be represented at the upcoming General Election by Adam Jogee who is currently a councillor in the Hornsey ward in Haringey, London.
Bookmakers have Labour as short as 2/7 to win the Newcastle-under-Lyme seat at the upcoming General Election with those odds giving an implied probability of 77% that they win.
| Newcastle-under-Lyme Seat Winner Next General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 2/7 | 77.8% |
| Conservative | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Reform UK | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Green Party | 100/1 | 1.0% |
What the expert says...
Conservatives are 5/2 to hold the seat after winning it back in 2019
Aaron Bell will once again run for the Conservatives in Newcastle-under-Lyme, five years on from when he won the seat back in 2019 with an 8.35% swing over Labour at the time.
Bell previously ran in Don Valley in South Yorkshire in the 2017 election where he was beaten at the time by Labour, but two years later he was the winner in Newcastle-under-Lyme.
The MP became the first Tory elected in the constituency with Labour having held the seat ever since 1919 and his current chances of holding the seat are at 28.6% according to the odds.
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Odds also given on the Harrow East seat at the next UK General Election
Labour are also odds-on favourites in other constituencies ahead of the UK General Election with Harrow East another seat that sees them at the top of the betting market.
Harrow East is another seat that is currently held by the Tories with Bob Blackman standing as MP in the constituency ever since 2010 and 14 years on we may well see that change.
Labour's latest odds give an implied probability of 71.4% that Primesh Patel is voted in as the MP for Harrow East for the party at the next General Election.
| Harrow East Seat Winner Next General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 2/5 | 71.4% |
| Conservative | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Green Party | 100/1 | 1.0% |
