I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Bookmakers double Williamson's probability of being next minister to leave after what could be a terrible blunder
- Now 58% probability of not remaining a cabinet minister into 2022 according to betting sites
- Cabinet reshuffle before 13th September has betting odds of just 2.66
Odds Slashed
Betting sites odds on Gavin Williamson being the next Cabinet minister to leave have been slashed in the wake of revelations of a possible mix up between Marcus Rashford and Maro Itoje.
In what is a pretty awkward situation by any standards, the current Secretary of State for Education has no easy way to explain the possible confusion.
What could make the situation worse still is Rashford's close political links recently throughout the COVID pandemic which has seen changes in government policies, one would have expected a cabinet minister to be a little more aware!
The fall out is betting on the next cabinet minister to leave has garned interest once again, and the odds have somewhat flip-flopped from what we were talking about yesterday regarding the cabinet reshuffle betting
Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Betting Odds
| Minister | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williamson | 3.6 | 27.78% |
| Dominic Raab | 4.7 | 21.28% |
| Alok Sharma | 5.5 | 18.18% |
| Amanda milling | 8.2 | 12.20% |
| Ben Wallace | 20 | 5% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
Raab and Sharma Saved?
In what has been a pretty active market of late, Williamson has shot to the head of the betting ahead of Dominic Raab in the fall out over Kabul, who in turn usurped Alok Sharma as favourite to be the next minister to leave.
Sharma may be breathing a sigh of relief, but will still be mindful of a pending Cabinet reshuffle that bookmakers think is a 50/50 chance to take place next week.
Just yesterday Williamson had a 58% probability of remaining a member of the cabinet at the end of the year, which has dropped to just about 50%, whilst to not be in place, has increased to 54%
Gavin Williamson to Remain a Cabinet Minister Beyond 2021 Betting Odds
| Member of Cabinet at end of 2021 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1.84 | 54% |
| Yes | 1.97 | 50.76 |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
