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Gavin Williamson Odds of Being Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Double to 28% with Bookmakers after Apparent Rashford Mix-Up

Steve Madgwick

Published: Sep 8, 4:47pm Last Updated: Sep 13, 1:45pm 0 Comments 117 Views

Secretary of State for Education Gavin Williamson has blundered

Odds Slashed

Betting sites odds on Gavin Williamson being the next Cabinet minister to leave have been slashed in the wake of revelations of a possible mix up between Marcus Rashford and Maro Itoje.

In what is a pretty awkward situation by any standards, the current Secretary of State for Education has no easy way to explain the possible confusion.

Gavin Williamson has replaced Dominic Raab and Alok Sharma as most likely Cabinet Minister to leave their post next and now is 27.78% chance of being next out of the door.

Nigel Skinner - Political betting Expert -

What could make the situation worse still is Rashford's close political links recently throughout the COVID pandemic which has seen changes in government policies, one would have expected a cabinet minister to be a little more aware!

The fall out is betting on the next cabinet minister to leave has garned interest once again, and the odds have somewhat flip-flopped from what we were talking about yesterday regarding the cabinet reshuffle betting

Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Betting Odds

Minister Odds Probability
Gavin Williamson 3.6 27.78%
Dominic Raab 4.7 21.28%
Alok Sharma 5.5 18.18%
Amanda milling 8.2 12.20%
Ben Wallace 20 5%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021

Raab and Sharma Saved?

In what has been a pretty active market of late, Williamson has shot to the head of the betting ahead of Dominic Raab in the fall out over Kabul, who in turn usurped Alok Sharma as favourite to be the next minister to leave.

Sharma may be breathing a sigh of relief, but will still be mindful of a pending Cabinet reshuffle that bookmakers think is a 50/50 chance to take place next week.

Just yesterday Williamson had a 58% probability of remaining a member of the cabinet at the end of the year, which has dropped to just about 50%, whilst to not be in place, has increased to 54%

Gavin Williamson to Remain a Cabinet Minister Beyond 2021 Betting Odds

Member of Cabinet at end of 2021 Odds Probability
No 1.84 54%
Yes 1.97 50.76

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021

Williamson now has a bigger than 50% chance with bookmakers of NOT remaining part of the cabinet by the end of the year

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Specialist -


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