Cheltenham runners at Aintree

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Cheltenham runners at Aintree

Postby Micko70 » Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:18 pm

Excluding the Grand National as i have looked at that in a seperate blog, i have looked at the last 6 years runnings of the remaining 20 races.

That's 120 races in total, in total 72 horses have run at Aintree after running at the festival and the results are as follows -

21 had won at Cheltenham, 26 were placed and the remaining 25 were unplaced at Cheltenham.

Looking at Hurdle races, 37 horses ran at Cheltenham then ran at Aintree, 13 won, 13 were placed and the remaining 11 were unplaced.

In Chases, 33 horses ran at Cheltenham, 8 won, 13 were placed and 12 were unplaced.

Only 2 bumper horses (12 winners) had ran at Cheltenham and neither of those finished in the places

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Postby nors » Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:10 pm

1.The unplaced at Cheltenham are the key horses i feel especially if they started 16/1 or under, as i expect the prices on offer at Aintree for unplaced at Cheltenham should be fairly generous.

2. Following All Cheltenham runners who didnt win should reap rewards.

3. Dont forget Punchestown horses who ran at Cheltenham.

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Postby Gazman982 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:51 pm

One horse I will be looking out for at Aintree is. ...... IF IN DOUBT

This horse was badly hampered then ran on very strongly to grab 3rd place in the pertemps.

Any ideas if this horse will run at Aintree?

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Postby The Shark » Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:22 pm

I would suggest we look at the individual histories of each runner. Some horses really need a break after a tough race, or two races close together. Others are fine. Some horses will lose a lot of weight in a race, others not so much.

Just the three week gap this year, but some horses were reported to come out of their races really well, perhaps the decent ground being a big help.

Willie Mullins will of course be running a lot more horses at Aintree this year than previously as he chases that UK trainers title. Will be interesting how that effects his success at Punchestown as I doubt very much any will run in all three festivals!

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Postby Jim Brown » Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:41 pm

Allwoing for the fact that all horses are different and some can stand harder (or championship) races more than others, do you think there might be a significance in looking at how those runners came to Cheltenham prior to also running at Aintree?

Do horses who come to Cheltenham on a planned campaign to arrive fresh an on top form have an advantage since they are more lightly raced?

or

Do horses who come to Cheltenham on a run of in-form races carry on to Aintree in a similar in-form vein?

Micko, might take a lot of checking but do you think a longer break prior to Cheltenham would be an advantage as there might be more in the tank for Aintree as a result?
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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:44 pm

One horse I will be looking out for at Aintree is. ...... IF IN DOUBT

This horse was badly hampered then ran on very strongly to grab 3rd place in the pertemps.

Any ideas if this horse will run at Aintree?
There 3 Handicap Hurdles at Aintree

A 2m 4f handicap hurdle on day 2

A 3m 1/2f handicap hurdle on day 3

A 2m 1/2f handicap hurdle for conditionals on day 3

If he runs anywhere, i would suggest it would be on day 3

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:09 pm

Allwoing for the fact that all horses are different and some can stand harder (or championship) races more than others, do you think there might be a significance in looking at how those runners came to Cheltenham prior to also running at Aintree?

Do horses who come to Cheltenham on a planned campaign to arrive fresh an on top form have an advantage since they are more lightly raced?

or

Do horses who come to Cheltenham on a run of in-form races carry on to Aintree in a similar in-form vein?

Micko, might take a lot of checking but do you think a longer break prior to Cheltenham would be an advantage as there might be more in the tank for Aintree as a result?
Jim

If i have time i will look into a few races, probably the Grade 1's, but i have looked at the gaps between the meetings

Prior to this year, in the last 10 years, there has been a 19 day break between Gold Cup day and day 1 of Aintree 8 times, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014

2007 & 2015 saw a 26 day break between Gold Cup day and day 1 of Aintree

In 2015, only 4 (1 was joint) favourites won the 10 Grade 1 races, after 26 days between meetings, 8 of the winners of those Grade 1 races had run at Cheltenham.

However, in 2014 only 2 of 10 favourites won the Grade 1 races, 8 of the winners of those Grade 1 races had run at Cheltenham.

I know i am looking at 2 years here, but horses running at Cheltenham seem to fair better than horses not running, although i don't have figures of the exact number of runners in those 10 races that ran at Cheltenham, that would take me a while to obtain.

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:20 pm

Jim

Just had a quick look and here are when the 16 horses that ran at Cheltenham and won at Aintree had their previous run before Cheltenham

2014 -
40 days
58 days
57 days
20 days
20 days
Boxing Day
Boxing Day
33 days

2015 -
44 days
2 runs in February
Boxing Day
44 days
47 days
53 days
31 days
New Years Day

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Postby Bobsselections » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:24 pm

What is happening with this race ?
Up until 2010 it was run over four and a half miles.
Then from 2011 to last year it was run over four miles three furlongs and this year it will be run over four and a quarter miles.
What next, half of the fences to be omitted.

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Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:27 pm

What is happening with this race ?
Up until 2010 it was run over four and a half miles.
Then from 2011 to last year it was run over four miles three furlongs and this year it will be run over four and a quarter miles.
What next, half of the fences to be omitted.
Which race Bob?

Think you might have posted on the wrong thread!!!!

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Postby Bobsselections » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:31 pm

Sorry mate, saw Aintree in the title and off i went.
Four and a half miles is a damn good clue to which race though, The Grand National.

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Postby Shrews » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:38 pm

What is happening with this race ?
Up until 2010 it was run over four and a half miles.
Then from 2011 to last year it was run over four miles three furlongs and this year it will be run over four and a quarter miles.
What next, half of the fences to be omitted.

I doubt anyone will notice too much.

It's about trialling what's best for the horse at the end of the day. Some are of the thinking that shortening the distance/lowering the fences will make it safer for the horses others think the opposite.

Until it's been tried over a period of time it's hard to say and the jury is very much still out, but it'll still be a great spectacle and as popular as ever.

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