I'd be one of those pulling Merry Kings price in over his last few races but I couldn't fancy him here given his last run and not an ideal prep. Green Flag might go 10-1 5 places and as he has been specifically trained for this race he could run well at that price with the 5 place concession. He's 1221 in his past 4 visits to Ayr. If Tidal Bay stays in as seems likely he's got a beautiful racing weight of 10-2 and his form behind Holywell and Ma Filleule not looking to bad and actually runs off a 1lb lower mark. Being by Milan any rain would be a negative but if it turns up around good or good/good to soft would likely be perfect. 2nd in the Feltham with Third Intention and Just a Par in behind.
With a trouble free round and given g/s or better then for me Green Flag looks a value EW bet at 10-1 5 places.
If you break the race down a bit: Tidal Bay has to win off 11-12 at the age of 13 from a bit of a demoralising unseat at Aintree a race where I thought maybe age will creep up on him. Sam Winner is 4 miles really his game? Mendip Express I was at Bangor to see his win I could be wrong as Harry Fry seems quite keen but is he really a 150+ horse as he might need to be to win here, soft ground he might be a worthy fav but faster ground might find him out? RdB a possible but 16lb rise in weights can make it hard for any horse. Battle Group presumably he won't or decides not to run. HA nah. GMJ yes can win but it's hard to call on his runs this season. RG is 4 miles his optimum but mark of 142 gives him some leeway but 12yo now?
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