Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:58 pm

I still think we'll get a decent field because the Ballymore could get a bunch of defections just to avoid Samcro. Also, outside of Getabird it's a reasonably open betting heat which should see some trainers and owners believing they have a shot at some decent prize money.

And I'm with you on Summerville Boy. I quite like Mengli Khan too and those would be my two against the field at this point. I appreciate the latter has a lot to find with the fav and I doubt the 6lb made much of a difference but it's a start and he's a big, strong strapping type, looks the world a future chaser and I think he'll get up the hill well.
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby titans choice » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:11 pm

Western Ryder could be a Each Way bet at a big price available at 33/1 with some bookies it ran ok in the Champion Bumper here last year finishing 5th just half a length behind Claimantakinforgan who finished 3rd and it is 14/1 with some bookies for this.It finished a massive 31 lengths behind Summerville Boy at Sandown in January but that was on heavy/soft in places and they both carried the same weight that day.But Western Ryder has beaten Summerville Boy back last December in a class 3 race finishing 5 3/4 lengths ahead of it and it was on soft/good to soft in places and that should be the going at Cheltenham and it also carried 5 lbs more then it in that race which was also ran at Cheltenham.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:19 pm

Western Ryder also has an entry in the Ballymore and from the comments I've seen from the owners son on Twiter he seems Ballymore bound but take that for what it's worth. If you back him though make sure it's NRNB.
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:50 pm

What do we make of the plunge on Samcro for this? Is it a case of possible soft ground makes this a more attractive option or has that thinking seen a few dabbles turn into a surge? I suspect the latter but if he holds an entry and NRNB protectedyou then if you got on at a big price then fair play. Apparently bet365 have been caught leaving the price massive for too long and it’s noteworthy that they taken the cash out option away for those that got on.

Edit: Eddie O’Leary states the target hasn’t changed and it’s Ballymore all the way.
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby DannyCraig » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:26 pm

What do we make of the plunge on Samcro for this? Is it a case of possible soft ground makes this a more attractive option or has that thinking seen a few dabbles turn into a surge? I suspect the latter but if he holds an entry and NRNB protectedyou then if you got on at a big price then fair play. Apparently bet365 have been caught leaving the price massive for too long and it’s noteworthy that they taken the cash out option away for those that got on.

Edit: Eddie O’Leary states the target hasn’t changed and it’s Ballymore all the way.

14/1 with nrnb - it seemed too good to be true. It was. Anyone who has backed this will probably have their account flagged as being a shrewdie. They also knew that this was a way to tie up a bucket load of cash until the festival starts, and we all know that most punters will bet these extra funds throughout the week anyways.

To me this was no indication of the horse being Supreme bound, just clever “bookmaker-ship”. As we were people.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:01 pm

If you were a layer looking at the markets for the Tuesday, would you want to prevent people from betting ?!

Strange theory.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:42 am

I think if you could get on at 14's, I couldn't, then it was a fantastic bet....at the time he was 10's on the exchanges and you lose there money with them!

As for O'Leary saying the plan is still the Ballymore over the Supreme, then great, works much better for me. However, it wouldn't be the first time a horse has been re-routed last minute, it happens all the time, Gigginstown have form for this in recent years.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Milly83 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:15 pm

I still think we'll get a decent field because the Ballymore could get a bunch of defections just to avoid Samcro. Also, outside of Getabird it's a reasonably open betting heat which should see some trainers and owners believing they have a shot at some decent prize money.

And I'm with you on Summerville Boy. I quite like Mengli Khan too and those would be my two against the field at this point. I appreciate the latter has a lot to find with the fav and I doubt the 6lb made much of a difference but it's a start and he's a big, strong strapping type, looks the world a future chaser and I think he'll get up the hill well.
Hi

Can anyone shed any light whether the OLBG trends blogs for each race will be adding a tip for each race like last year??

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:50 pm

I still think we'll get a decent field because the Ballymore could get a bunch of defections just to avoid Samcro. Also, outside of Getabird it's a reasonably open betting heat which should see some trainers and owners believing they have a shot at some decent prize money.

And I'm with you on Summerville Boy. I quite like Mengli Khan too and those would be my two against the field at this point. I appreciate the latter has a lot to find with the fav and I doubt the 6lb made much of a difference but it's a start and he's a big, strong strapping type, looks the world a future chaser and I think he'll get up the hill well.
Hi

Can anyone shed any light whether the OLBG trends blogs for each race will be adding a tip for each race like last year??
I can't speak for the bloggers who didthe trends blogs last year but even if they don't you can search through the Cheltenham blogs and apply them to this years races:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/index.php?c=55
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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:42 pm

I think if you could get on at 14's, I couldn't, then it was a fantastic bet....at the time he was 10's on the exchanges and you lose there money with them!

As for O'Leary saying the plan is still the Ballymore over the Supreme, then great, works much better for me. However, it wouldn't be the first time a horse has been re-routed last minute, it happens all the time, Gigginstown have form for this in recent years.
Samcro is different though in that he will appreciate the extra distance so will only be rerouted if the ground is really heavy, which makes total sense. Won't be rerouted for the fun or it.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:16 am

He can win either race for me, I'd be surprised if he was re-routed, but 14's NRNB was a great Insurance bet for the Supreme.

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Re: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby whiterider82 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:57 pm

The more and more i look at this race the more i fancy Ainchea (if he goes here) at a massive price. Tizzard stable starting to hit form at the right time also. This horse was going to win his last race until the last hurdle fall. If he puts that behind him I can see a massive run.

Only doubt is he may go Ballymore, there is him and Vision de Flos and i think they will split this and the Ballymore between then, for me Ainchea should go here and VDF the Ballymore.

Fingers crossed...

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