Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Derbz87
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Derbz87 » Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:58 pm

This wasn't a race I was particularly interested in at one point because Un De Sceaux has looked very impressive on both starts and looked banker material at skinny-ish odds. I looked at it again today and the potential for fast ground doesn't concern me, he wasn't beaten that far by Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham last year and a similar performance here would probably be enough ratings wise. At Sandown, the ground didn't beat him that day I think it was probably the fact that Paul Townend let him do too much out front and the resultant fatigue contributed to some poor jumping at a few which surely meant he didn't run his race that day, only beating Dodging Bullets a length. If you cast your mind back it was a pivitol day for Mulllins in the title race with Nicholls and I suspect they rode him a bit boom or bust to try and get the edge over Sprinter Sacre and it backfired to some extent.

The trip does concern me, people keep going back to him winning over 2M 5F in France on heavy but as someone on a panel said the other night they don't race in France like they do over here, potter around and have a sprint from 6F out or so. In a normally run 2M 5F I wouldn't be concerned but look at the potential line-up and what do they have in common? Uxizandre won his Ryanair making all and could be ridden more aggressively here, Sub Leiutenant has led in a few of his starts and will be right up there, Josses Hill's best performances have come when making all, even Village Vic who would be outclassed here if he lined up will want to be ridden from the front. They are all proven stayers over this trip. Un De Sceaux's main market rival Empire Of Dirt was touted as a Gold Cup horse and surely the quicker they go the better for him, he's no plodder either he won the Brown Plate over track and trip last year. If you're in the Gigginstown camp, I know they have seperate trainers but surely the best way to get Un De Sceaux beat and play into Empire Of Dirt's hands is to make it a proper test of stamina, I can certainly see them making some use of Sub Leiutenant. Fascinating race in prospect but that pace angle does swing things Empire Of Dirt's way for me at the current prices.

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby The Market Man » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:36 pm

Derbz - i think Tom Malone was mistaken there about the pace of staying races over in France. In some of the better races they go a fair clip and many of the young French bred horses that have performed over 2m5f in France stay really well when switched to our courses.
Katie Walsh has won those staying hurdles in France and says there can be a genuine pace. Obviously, just like here in Britain, some races will be slowly run affairs

Derbz87
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Derbz87 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:48 am

Derbz - i think Tom Malone was mistaken there about the pace of staying races over in France. In some of the better races they go a fair clip and many of the young French bred horses that have performed over 2m5f in France stay really well when switched to our courses.
Katie Walsh has won those staying hurdles in France and says there can be a genuine pace. Obviously, just like here in Britain, some races will be slowly run affairs
Thanks for that, yes it was Tom Malone who said that and it would be wrong to solely go off that if as you say others argue against the point. I'd probably need to try and find a video of the race in question and judge for myself. I'm probably trying too hard to find ways to get an increasingly shortening fav beat, haven't had a bet yet because obviously there's still a small lingering possibility of Empire Of Dirt going for Gold. I don't think anyone else in this field has the class to catch the fav out.

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:57 pm

There you go, Derbz. Hope you backed it !

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