Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Robmull
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:36 am

I have just posted the first iteration of my trends based blog for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, which in many ways is probably the toughest Grade 1 event at the festival for punters to assess, albeit the trends are relatively strong and I have enjoyed a few winners over the past decade, albeit from multiple selections and to relatively small stakes, as in my view it is not a race to warrant large investments.

As with most years, most of the ante post activity appears to be focussed on Irish trained candidates, especially those from Willie Mullins' stable, but with the last 2 renewals having been won by the home team, it will be interesting to see how the market shapes up over the next 5 weeks.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper Key Race Trends – 15 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412304

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:35 am

If your believe the exchanges, Getabird is out!

Gutted, really gutted!


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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby DannyCraig » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:11 pm

New favourite in carter McKay which might only be shortened considerably if he wins comfortably today...

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:19 pm

That was disappointing - the favourite allowed to dictate from the front, setting a slow pace and just winding it up. However, he never came off the bridle and looks the smartest of the Mullins runners i've seen

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Micko70 » Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:44 pm

Carter McKay now down to as low as 7/2, nice to see Corals still have Getabird at 4/1

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:47 pm

The Bumper is ultra tough. What generally happens is the ones who win their first races and catch your eye, almost always turn out to have beaten a shed load of modest horses. I have lost count of the number of times I have clicked on "Future Form" on At The Races to see between a dozen and twenty subsequent runners out with the washing.

I can't get involved on the favourite here at the skinny odds and I like to look for something between 16/1 and 33/1 for a fun punt.

This year the Bigot Buck is going on Paloma Blue at sporting odds of 25/1.

Paloma Blue is a 5YO Gelding by Stowaway, out of a Supreme Leader mare. He won't actually physically be 5YO until a month after Cheltenham and it's obvious that he could be anything at this stage. He had his only race so far at Fairyhouse on the 15th of January and he was backed in from an opening 8/1 to 6/1. That support was not let down as he stayed on well on the run in to collar Oakley Hall, the favourite for the race and whom went on to win next time out at Punchestown.

The Fairyhouse race saw Paloma Blue a bit keep early but he was catching the eye as going well in behind them from quite a way out and the eye did not deceive, as he started passing those in front of him looking ominous. In the end, once he hit the front he seemed to idle and drift across the track. This allowed ultimate runner up Oakley Hall to close and make a challenge but once Paloma Blue straightened up, he answered his jockey's urgings and stayed on well to score a bit cosily by a little over a length.

Oakley Hall was giving 5lbs that day but had the advantage of a previous run and I feel Paloma Blue will have learned a lot that day. Oakley Hall is rated 120 on RPR and while improvement will be required, Henry De Bromhead's Paloma Blue is almost guaranteed to come on for the one run and I liked the way he went about setting himself up to strike that day. Delivering him late in a big field would seem the sensible plan and I feel this horse has a very sporting chance and is worthy of a wager at huge odds in a field where plenty are way shorter but don't hold that much better ratings or form. He just seems a likeable type who is totally unexposed. The terms are non-runner no bet, so no harm done if he doesn't run.

The Bumper Paloma Blue 25/1 (NRNB) SkyBet

Good luck wherever your money lies.
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby DannyCraig » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:48 am

I understand Fulham Road is being seen in a bumper this weekend.

This is what RR had to say about him back in October 2015:

He told At The Races: "The clear outstanding bumper horse for us is Fulham Road.

"He fell in his point-to-point and was close to the top of the heap of our bumper horses last season and all our bumper horses won last year.

"He would be the one we'd be most looking forward to. I know Patrick (Mullins) is quite keen on him.

"From a bumper perspective, he's our best by far. He'd be top of the tree of mine and hopefully in the top quartile of the bumper horses in Ireland."

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:53 am

Hi DannyCraig

I will be surprised if FULHAM ROAD is declared for the Champion Bumper having been beaten at Fairyhouse yesterday.

He will probably turn out to be a good horse in time, but a trip to Cheltenham so soon after that effort would probably be too soon.

I have updated my trends based blog for this race which has identified 5 qualifiers from the head of the betting market, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the winner may be lurking further down the list, this year.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper Key Race Trends – 15 March 2017 – Updated on 26 February 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412304

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:34 am

Ballyward pulled muscle, 50/50 to get there

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Micko70 » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:40 am

Very strong trend on this race, the last 10 winners won their last race.

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:00 pm

Spent a little time with this race this evening and of course, it's a toughie but made tougher by the fact we know so little about these horses.

One that stuck out at a price was a mare that might not even run here but actually has course winning form in Irish Roe. I love the story to start off with, small trainer - Peter Atkinson - who only has two horses in training but his wife trainers pointers so knows what she's doing and the form of her Listed Bumper win at the course in November is working out not too bad.

The horse Irish Roe deadheated with that day was Alan King's My Khaleesi who went on to be 2nd in another Bumper, win its maiden hurdle then come a respectable 5th in a higher grade race at Ascot recently. The 3rd, Naranja came 2nd in its next Bumper run and tried its hand this past Saturday in a top novice hurdle over 3m but came a distance 4th. The 4th, Oscar Rose has won a novice hurdle and the 5th, Pearl Royale won today, breaking its duck after a lot of solid performances hitting the bar and coming 2nd.

It's admittedly not earth shattering form but it's fairly encouraging. The trainer and his wife seem to have found a bit of a diamond in the rough and apparent Aintree was their aim with this daughter of Vinnie Roe but they must be tempted for a crack at the festival. She'd get the 7lb Mares allowance which is also a help.

She's 33/1 but with NRNB about and a 1/4 odds e/w from bet365 and Stan James why the heck not. Maybe it's a punt with the heart as much as the head but given the lack of knowledge we have about so many of the other runners I'm going to take a little chance on this outsider. Wouldn't it be great to see a small operation upset the big boys?
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