tipstonga OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

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Postby tipstonga » Fri Jan 02, 2009 4:24 am

I must assume I have got the worst result against the Bookies in this firs half with a perfect -100 geckoins average. At the same time my LSP result is not so bad -3.89 and would have lead to a -20 geckoins average (an overall lost shorter than 400) if I had played just 100 each time. I think this is revealing wrong stake decisions mainly. I must be very careful about this and forget all anxiety about recovering soon.

Well this year, lets take it seriously (chorus: :lol: :lol:)

week 21 bank = 100 geckoins

From the FA Cup matches with a Premiership team involved I find Aston Villa handicap as an interesting value bet.
Despite the difference between both teams odds for the full result (1x2) are not to low (0.44) and they grow to nearly the double for a 1 goal handicap (0.8) .
Aston Villa is fighting well in Premiership being now 4th. At the same time Gillingham is 10th in League 2 . AV has 8 league matches without lost winning 2 times by 2 (Arsenal away, Bolton home) also scored 2 against Gunners home and 3 against Everton away not to mentioned they managed to paralyse home the scoring MUnited machinery. The irregular and weak Gillingham could do little to halt AV even at home. Moreover if AV only win by one (highly improbable) the bet is safe with this not too demanding handicap .

So my pick :hope:
Event: Gillingham v Aston Villa
Market: Asian Handicap
Bet: away -1
Odds: 0.8
Bookie: Canbet
stake: 100 geckoins

new bank : 0 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:37 pm

I thank you very much John Mac for your brave comment since you are an AV supporter.
Anyhow I can not see why a team will play worst in the FA Cup that in Premiership, specially considering that the fixtures do not mean an extraordinary effort. AV played on 30/12 this match is on 4/01 and their next one on 10/01 (against the weakest side WB). At the same time imo there is no way -despite some extra motivation- that can make any team to improve up to 2 levels above (to say the less) at least if they are not in an exceptional moment and near to be promoted.
Perhaps there is something special about FA Cup that I do not know, I would appreciate if you tell me.
Statistics in this match support my idea that Villa will prevail playing a minor league team. They exited FA Cup in 2006 to 2008 cause they could not beat both Manchesters; in 2006 after beating Hull (not yet in Prem of course) and Port Vale. Gillingham in the same period has wins over teams similar to them and were defeated against teams just above like Bristol. Last match of Gillingham with a Prem team in FA Cup was in 2005 : Portsmouth 1 - Gillingham 0 .

A very nice and lucky year for you John.

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sun Jan 04, 2009 3:47 pm

Well, a push, Aston Villa 2 - Gillingham 1 :)

Statistics 6W 13L 2D , -3.89 LSP , profit -2000 geckoins

week 22 bank = 200 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:38 am

Not too much time for a careful comparison this week, but Arsenal home seems enough safe versus Bolton after the away win in september and other 3 previous wins in h2hs consecutive with that.

So my bet

Event: Arsenal v Bolton
Market: 1x2
Bet: home
Odds: 0.4
Bookie: Paddy Power
stake: 200 geckoins

new bank : 0 geckoins
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Postby tipstonga » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:11 pm

win :D so
Statistics 7W 13L 2D , -3.49 LSP , profit -1920 geckoins

new bank including top up 380 geckoins

week 23 btow is going for Liverpool v Everton cause it is the only match already to be played by this time and I do not want to let a week pass if possible.
I think it may be a draw very probably just like Chelsea v Everton.
Evertons wins away had been 1-0 four in a row and Liverpool had been irregular scoring so may be they can not be many times close to hit the net.
So I have chosen the under goals bet in the above evens variant.

Event: Liverpool v Everton
Market: Goal line
Bet: under 2.25
Odds: 1.02
Bookie:bet365
stake: 180 geckoins

new bank : 200 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Tue Jan 20, 2009 2:21 am

1-1 win :D
with half profit, so

week 24 bank= 572 geckoins
= (profit) 92 + (stake) 180 + (bank) 200 + (top up) 100

Statistics 8W 13L 2D , -2.98 LSP , profit -1828 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:35 pm

week 24
I pick Aston Villa away as they have 4W1D in last five Premiership matches while Portsmouth has 1D4L . I am not taking insurance for the draw since AV has been very effective away and Pompey weak anywhere, so I shall not put all my bank on it. Taking handicap because there is 1 point difference now with the direct win(1.33).

So
Event: Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Market: Handicap
Bet: away -0.5
Odds: 1.34
Bookie: Canbet
stake: 300 geckoins

new bank : 272 geckoins

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:21 pm

:D :D win win win put this in a double with MU in real life and it came ; pity I did not dare to play the handicap with the reds. :D :D

So profit 300x1.34 = 402
stake = 300
bank =272
top up = 100

then new bank for week 25 = 1074 geckoins

Stats.:
9W 13L 2D , -1.64 LSP , profit -1426 geckoins

Fight continues !, vade retro Bookies !

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:14 pm

I like three home sides this weekend
Newcastle (v Sunderland) @1.5
Hull v (West Brom) @ 1.2 and
Fulham (v Portsmouth) @ 1.0

I shall take the middle one since the greatest differences occur within this two and despite some Hull irregularities the extreme weakness of WB away (9 lost in 11 games) looks determinant. Moreover in the inverse match this season Hull beat WB by 3-0 so they know how to do it.

Then botw for me in week 25 :hope: :

Event: Hull v West Brom
Market: 1x2
Bet: home win
Odds: 1.20
Bookie: bet365
stake: 400 geckoins

new bank : 674 geckoins



good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Jan 31, 2009 6:55 pm

lost, Hu and WB drew. :( My two other choices went ok :shock:

Going backwards again, hope it is to get impulse. Indeed a positive month this January. But still a great work ahead to success!

Then new bank for week 26 = 774 geckoins

Stats
9W 14L 2D , -2.64 LSP , profit -1826 geckoins


good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Thu Feb 05, 2009 9:06 pm

for week 26 i am thinking in
Arsenal to beat Spurs away (@1.4) a matter of football, sooner or later the Arsenal players will find out that the arc shaped wood things with nets in the field had something to do with the game.
Portsmouth to beat Liverpool home or draw (@1.1), I was feeling certain declination in Liverpool making me like this one; midweek Gerards injure and long unsuccessful stress (see deco's blog) make it very confident bet .
Blackburn v Aston Villa over (@1.04), the inverse leg ended AV 3 Bl 2 and both have had matches with 2 or more goals even loosing (MU 5 Bl 3 the best example), so very confident too.
I am waiting to see if they are played or result postponed.

good luck :win:
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Postby tipstonga » Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:49 am

Forecast says it will be sunny at Blackburn site so I am going for the goals bet.
Portsmouth is not paying enough for the risk of what a team of the class of Liverpool can take from the hat specially in a weak season for Pompey.
Arshavin will not debut in Arsenal against Spurs cause not in form yet -Arsene said-, so I shall take it only as the choice if the Villa match is postponed.

Then btow week 26 :hope:

Event: Blackburn Rovers v Aston Villa
Market: goal line
Bet: over 2.5
Odds: 1.07
Bookie: bet365
stake: 300 geckoins

new bank : 474 geckoins

good luck :win:
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