VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Robmull
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VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:46 pm

For many years, I have been a staunch believer that placing multiple bets on a regular basis is a sure fire route to the poorhouse, as they offer poor value and are highly promoted by bookmakers, who pander to the dreams of small stakes punters who are seeking a large return for a small outlay.

However, after a recent discussion with a friend, who is also a serious horse racing punter, we came to the conclusion that in theory multiple bets could provide a potent weapon for discerning punters to increase profit margins.

Full information regarding this theory are detailed in the following blog:

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Backing Value Selections in Multiple Bets
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413048

To test this theory, I intend to place a small stake win Lucky 15 on 4 VALUE CALCULATOR selections each day with Betfred who offer a couple of useful concessions, in that they pay 3 times the odds for a single winner and a bonus of 10% in the unlikely event that all 4 of the selections are successful.

I will post my selections and the early odds taken each evening prior to the day of the race and will update the profit/loss figures on a regular basis.

I have no idea whether this experiment will prove the theory, but at this stage I am able to share my expectations, based on the historic performance of the VALUE CALCULATOR.

Based on an average strike rate of 16.7% of VALUE CALCULATOR selections and an average ROI of 120.00p/£ when backing the selections as win singles, I would hope that this Multiple Bet experiment would improve the ROI to at least 130.00p/£ over a time period of 100 Lucky 15 bets – we shall see!!

I hope that viewers will find this experiment of interest and I will welcome any feedback as the project progresses.

I will post my initial selections for tomorrow later this evening.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:38 pm

Day 1 selections:

2.00 Huntingdon: MILLE NAUTIQUE at 11/4

3.05 Huntingdon: DREAMSOFTHEATRE at 9/2

3.30 Lingfield: TOP OF THE BANK at 13/2

3.50 Warwick: QUARENTA at 11/4

1 pt Win Lucky 15 - Total Stakes 15.00 pts.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Crofty11 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:49 am

I think these selections look very possible, i will follow with much interest, i would do a small stake on these but can't make the shop in time..GL

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:33 pm

Hi Crofty,

Thanks for your support.

Should be an interesting experiment and will hopefully prove the theory, but then again nothing is certain when it comes to betting.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Crofty11 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:41 pm

Hi , Just got back from the shop. I really like mille in the first and have made it my bet of the day and i have done a small Each Way Lucky 15...GL to you too.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Crofty11 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:07 pm

Great start!!! Well done

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily

Postby Robmull » Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:56 pm

Day 1 results:

2.00 Huntingdon: MILLE NAUTIQUE at 11/4 - :3: @ 2/1 Fav

3.05 Huntingdon: DREAMSOFTHEATRE at 9/2 - :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: @ 7/1

3.30 Lingfield: TOP OF THE BANK at 13/2 - Unp @ 6/1

3.50 Warwick: QUARENTA at 11/4 - :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: @ 7/2

1 pt Win Lucky 15 - Total Stakes: 15.00 pts.

Total Return: 29.87 pts at odds taken yesterday evening for a profit of 14.87 pts.

Hi Crofty,

Thanks for your kind words and really pleased that you followed the selections today, although I can't guarantee a similar return everyday, as previously mentioned the VC has an average strike rate of just 16.7%, so based on that figure, I should be due a couple of days without a winner - hopefully, that will not be the case.

As for the return today, I noticed that Betfred were not offering BOG last night, so I have received a far smaller return than I would enjoyed had I placed the bet at SP, or this morning after they offered BOG on all the races.

Going forward, whilst I will continue to post my intended selections each evening, I will not be placing the bet until BOG is offered by Betfred and may have to amend the selections if I can't secure value bets on the originals.

Will have to see how this works out.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:49 pm

Day 2 preferred selections:

3.45 Ascot: MOUNT MORIAH

3.55 Fontwell: WORKBENCH

4.55 Ascot: EYE OF THE STORM

5.05 Fontwell: LILLIAN

Unfortunately, a couple of these only offer marginal value at current best odds based on the VC figures, so it may be necessary to dip in to the following reserves once the Betfred BOG odds are made available.

4.10 Hexham: RYEDALE RACER

4.20 Ascot: BENGAL LANCER or BERKSHIRE BOY

I will provide a further update tomorrow morning.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:45 am

Day 2 selections:

The preferred selections stand, as follows:

3.45 Ascot: MOUNT MORIAH @ 2/1

3.55 Fontwell: WORKBENCH @ 6/1

4.55 Ascot: EYE OF THE STORM @ 10/1

5.05 Fontwell: LILLIAN @ 8/1

1pt Win Lucky 15 with Betfred at the above odds with BOG - Total Stakes 15.00 pts.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Crofty11 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:44 am

I will follow again , but I am substituting Mount mariah with Turtle Cask at Hexham , for an Each Way Lucky 15. GL again today..

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:21 pm

Day 2 results:

3.45 Ascot: MOUNT MORIAH @ 2/1 - 5th @ 9/4 Fav

3.55 Fontwell: WORKBENCH @ 6/1 - 5th @ 6/1

4.55 Ascot: EYE OF THE STORM @ 10/1 - 4th @ 14/1

5.05 Fontwell: LILLIAN @ 8/1 - 6th @ 11/2

1pt Win Lucky 15 - Total Stakes 15.00 pts.

Nothing to get excited about today, so a total washout for a loss of 15.00 pts.

Still tomorrow is another day.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR EXPERIMENT - Backing Selections in a Daily Lucky 15

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:56 pm

Day 3 selections:

2.25 Ascot: SECRET NUMBER @ 5/1

2.40 Newmarket: SIYOUSHAKE @ 12/1

3.00 Ascot: MAGICAL MEMORY @ 6/1

4.30 Redcar: MON BEAU VISAGE @ 8/1

I have placed the Lucky 15 with bet365 (2 x odds for 1 winner, plus 15% all correct bonus) as the BOG odds for Betfred are very poor for 3 of the selections, turning them into non value bets.

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