Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

mazeymay
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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby mazeymay » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:19 pm

FA Trophy
Wealdstone 8/5 v Brackley Town 15/8
National South meets National North here in the last 16

Brackley have won through to the last 16 after being drawn away in all three rounds. They drew all three games before winning the
home replays. They knocked out National North leaders Fylde 4-0 following a 1-1 draw two rounds back before disposing of 5th place
Stockport 2-0. Their away league record is very good and reads five wins, five draws and one loss with a 20-14 goal record. In thirty
five total games this season they have only lost six times

Wealdstone are currently 13th in the South division with a home league record of four wins, two draws and seven losses with a goal
difference of 16-26. They did get a great result over National League Southport 2-1 in the last round following two replayed wins over
Wingate and Finchley and National South leaders Maidenhead. They have lost their last two home league games, conceding four goals
in each game and have lost five of their last nine here in all competitions
The away record Brackley have for the season makes me lean toward them to win the tie without a replay this time

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby mazeymay » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:22 pm

Devilimp..Colchester United to win away at 12/5 or 3.40 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 2

Micko70..Nice to win away at 21/4 or 6.25 Saturday 4-00pm
France Ligue 1

stretchpaul..ST Etienne to win at home at 5/2 or 3.50 Sunday 8-00pm
France Ligue 1

Inquisitorem..Cardiff City to win at home at 15/8 or 2.875 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

emres1983..Pandurii Targu Jiu to win at home at 18/5 or 3.59 Friday 3-30pm
Romania Liga 1

nawoo..Alaves to win away at 27/10 or 3.70 Sunday 3-15pm
Spain LaLiga

risto123..Celta Vigo to win at home at 7/1 or 8.08 Sunday 7-45pm
Spain LaLiga

Mazeymay..Brackley Town to win away at 15/8 or 2.875 Saturday 3-00pm
England FA Trophy

titans choice..QPR to win away at 23/10 or 3.30 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

tbuckley..Leicester City to win at home at 9/2 or 5.50 Sunday 4-00pm
England Premier League

bigmoose..Fleetwood Town to win away at 21/10 or 3.10 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 1

si1965..Burnley to win away at 3/1 or 4.00 Saturday 3-00pm
England Premier League

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby titans choice » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:58 pm

Blackburn Rovers v Q.P.R Paddy Power 23/10
I am picking the away team in this match as they have done well in the last 3 away games in the league winning 2 and drawing 2-2 with Newcastle.Q.P.R have won 5 of their 14 away games in the league scoring 15 and conceding 19.While Blackburn have won 4 of their 15 home games scoring 21 goals and conceding 24 goals.Blackburn have won just 1 drawing 1 and losing 3 in their last 5 home games in the league.So the overall home form of Blackburn is similar to Q.P.R'S away form in the league so I think it is a even match but I think the recant form of Q.P.R gives them the edge over Blackburn.

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby tbuckley » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:08 am

if you've seen my views on twitter about Man United & Mourinho this season then you'll know that I've not been impressed and I think they are the for the taking in every match, just not doing enough & not scoring goals.

So while probably 99.9999% of the world will expect or predict a Man United win at Leicester City on Sunday, I think Leicester City are the bet at around 9/2, the back up bet would be Leicester City double chance around 6/5.

United are not scoring enough goals & if they don't score first they don't seem able to get a win from the match, so I think it could be worth Leicester City actually showing some much needed fight & determination from the start and going for it, take a punt on Leicester scoring first, opening the game up and punishing United.

Leicester City destroyed Man City 4-0 at home when a Man City win was widely expected, I think this is the game where the Leicester City players actually properly motivate themselves & actually try hard again, United are truly rubbish price at odds on and I think Leicester City can take them, at least get something from the match.

Leicester City at 9/2
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby bigmoose » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:43 am

Its very rare to find this many HOME underdogs, these are all from the Championship this weekend: I havent done the other English Leagues yet. Any advice?

Ipswich  2.88) Draw  3.25) Reading  2.75)

Barnsley  2.9) Draw  3.4) Preston  2.75)

Nottingham Forest  3.05) Draw  3.3) Aston Villa  2.63)

Cardiff  3.1) Draw  3.4) Norwich  2.5)

Wigan  3.2) Draw  3.2) Sheffield Wednesday  2.6)

Brentford  3.3) Draw  3.35) Brighton  2.4)

Burton  3.45) Draw  3.35) Wolves  2.35)

Birmingham  3.8) Draw  3.6) Fulham  2.1)
Kind of sums up this weeks fixtures for me. There's some real possibilities there but i can't find justification to actually back any of those underdogs bar Cardiff. Although i could see how someone else might take a different view
Wolves look a bit short in the 2 games since beating Liv, but Burton are on a terrible run
Birmingham haven't won a single one of Zolas 9 games in charge
Villa previously seem priced on reputation and squad value. seem more realistically priced this week, if only Forest weren't so erratic at home it might have tempted me
Im not sure what to make of Barnsley, i like those odds but i think they were my underdog last week and lost at home to Wolves. Tempting though.
Some of those home teams will win though (not that we need to be nostradamus to conclude that!)
Steve

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby bigmoose » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:39 am

A very indecisive week for me. The lower down the english leagues I go the more I like the look of some underdogs, but the flipside is the lower down the leagues the more unpredictable a match is compared to the formbook. Some tempters:

Championship:
Cardiff (3.00) vs Norwich - As already stated in this thread Cardiff are going quite well at the mo, winning 4 of last 5 home matches. Norwich have only recovered at home from their terrible slump, 6 home wins from 6. On the road they've not improved at all yet. No away wins since October and lost 6 of last 7 matches.

League One:
Charlton (2.5) vs Fleetwood (3.10) - Charlton are a mid-table side, so some they win some they lose. Overall home record of 5-5-3. But home to top half sides this season Charlton are 1-3-2, their one win being against Bristol Rovs who are rather average on the road. Fleetwood are on a 12 match unbeaten run, and in this 12 match run they've won 3 and drawn 2 away. The downside is Fleetwod haven't done much away to the better teams in the league, and only 5 away wins all season. But i'm banking on recent form, especially as last time away they rectified their okish away form with a 2-0 win at SheffU.

League Two:
Accrington vs NottsC (4.50) - Don't know what to make of this one. Have Notts County with their new owner & manager (on 14th Jan) and couple of new players picked up enough to give the woeful Accrington a game? NottsC won 2-1 at home to Crawley (poor on the road) last week and have drawn one and lost the other of their 3 fixtures under Nolan. Shola Ameobi has also turned up at County this week. Accrington have drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 6 at home and have only won 1 of their last 12 league matches, losing 8 of these.

Crawley (2.87) vs Stevenage - Two midtable sides, Stevenage are 1 point above Crawley in the table. Stevenage are ok away with a 6-2-6 record and no pattern to who they win/lose to. But Crawley are a home team with a 7-3-2 record and gaining 24 of their 35 league points at home. So with Stevenage losing their last 3 away and Crawley winning their last 4 at home then Crawley look the more likely of the two to win. So its Crawley for me.

Hartlepool (2.90) vs Yeovil - When's the Dave Jones new manager effect coming? Perhaps it isn't. Either way Hartlepool away never used to be a nice trip, and not just because its miles away. Even this season a lowly Hartlepool are 4-5-5 at home this season, and 4-0-3 in last 7 home matches. Yeovil have a rather bad away record of 2-5-6 with their wins at Leyton Orient (everyone wins there!) and Crewe. The odds says back Hartlepool, i might keep it very small though.

Week 23 Pick
(Fle or Crw, Fle or Crw) ................... Fleetwood @ 3.10
Steve

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby si1965 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:50 am

Somewhat surprisingly I am backing a side without an away win so far this season ¬– Burnley away at Watford. Totally at odds with their home form, the single point on the road at Man Utd looks dire. However, the majority of their away matches have been against top 10 sides (with only Liverpool and Everton yet to be played) and only Leicester occupy one of the bottom eight positions. Their last four away defeats (at West Ham, Spurs, Man City and Arsenal) have all been by a single goal.
Watford have been reasonably solid at home, with a W4 D3 L4 record, but their surprise win away at Arsenal last weekend was their first win in nine games and they have not won their last three home games (DDL).
Watford may struggle to raise their game in the same way they did last week at the Emirates against a Burnley side they are expected to beat, whereas Burnley just have to transfer the form they are already enjoying at home. Consequently I find the odds of 3/1 (bet365) for Burnley’s first away win attractive.

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby zagreb » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:15 am

Nottingham Forest to beat Aston Villa @ 2/1

Forest are 19th in the table going into todays game and Villa are 14th only 3 points ahead. Both sides have again under achieved and a return to the top flight looks a long way off.

Forest have won their last 2 home games against Bristol City and Rotherham and have an overall home league record of won 7 drawn 3 lost 4 scored 24 conceded 19 if their away form had been anywhere near as good they would be play off challengers.

Aston Villa have not settled into Championship life at all since their relegation from the Premiership last season. They are unbeaten at home in the league with 6 wins and 7 draws and that is the only thing keeping them from a relegation fight as on the road they have won 2 drawn 5 and lost 8 scoring just 7 goals whilst conceding 18.

It is Villa`s poor away form and lack of goals which leads me to tip Forest today.

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby undertherobe » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:22 am

Some excellent reasoning behind these underdogs. Looking through my selections for Saturday, I have just two underdogs listed but both have already been claimed with Cardiff & Notts Forest so I'll be looking through Sunday's games to try and find one.

Good luck everyone :win:

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby mazeymay » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:53 am

Devilimp..Colchester United to win away at 12/5 or 3.40 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 2

Micko70..Nice to win away at 21/4 or 6.25 Saturday 4-00pm
France Ligue 1

stretchpaul..ST Etienne to win at home at 5/2 or 3.50 Sunday 8-00pm
France Ligue 1

Inquisitorem..Cardiff City to win at home at 15/8 or 2.875 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

emres1983..Pandurii Targu Jiu to win at home at 18/5 or 3.59 Friday 3-30pm
Romania Liga 1

nawoo..Alaves to win away at 27/10 or 3.70 Sunday 3-15pm
Spain LaLiga

risto123..Celta Vigo to win at home at 7/1 or 8.08 Sunday 7-45pm
Spain LaLiga

Mazeymay..Brackley Town to win away at 15/8 or 2.875 Saturday 3-00pm
England FA Trophy

titans choice..QPR to win away at 23/10 or 3.30 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

tbuckley..Leicester City to win at home at 9/2 or 5.50 Sunday 4-00pm
England Premier League

bigmoose..Fleetwood Town to win away at 21/10 or 3.10 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 1

si1965..Burnley to win away at 3/1 or 4.00 Saturday 3-00pm
England Premier League

Zagreb..Nottingham Forest to win at home at 2/1 or 3.00 Saturday 5-30pm
England Championship

Crofty11..Peterhead to win away at 9/5 or 2.80 Saturday 3-00pm
Scotland League 1

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby pharlap » Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:24 am

My underdog of the day will be Bastia playing in Montpellier at odds close to 4/1 for an away win.
Montpellier are by far the worst team in the league at the moment and were clobbered 5-1 in Marseille a week ago adding more woes to their season.
Their defense is terrible and they'll be playing a team that do that very well.
I expect that Bastia will try to get Montpellier on the counter attack while keeping the strikers silent.

Montpellier are terrible on the pitch and off as tensions between owner Louis Nicollin and coach Frédéric Hantz are at a record high, Nicollin saying the club doesn't have enough money to fire him. Not the kind of statement you would want to help a club on the verge of relegation.

I believe Bastia will fancy their chances in this one and as they need points, well what better time to face Montpellier ?

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Re: Football Betting Underdog of the weekend, Week 23

Postby Crofty11 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:34 am

I too was going to chance Burnely, so have had look around and am going for one from the Scottish second division, peterhead to beat airdrie 3.00 Saturday.

Airdrie are on a bad run having won only 1 of their last 5 . with 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 4 games.

peterhead whilst being 5 places below airdrie in the league are only 5 points behind.

they have won their last two games infusing beating second placed Alloa 0-1 at Alloa, and despite having a man sent off in the 75th minute.

9/5 on the Coral coupon looks good value to me.

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