Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

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Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby garlicsauce » Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:08 pm

Discussion & Selections on all Non Premier games for Wednesday (including)......................................

please also see Africa Cup of Nations thread here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=61844


Championship - Newcastle v QPR - ko 19.45

Italy Serie A - Pescara v Fiorentina - ko 19.45

Scots Premier -
Hearts v Rangers - ko 19.45
Celtic v Aberdeen - ko 19.45

Copa del Rey - Atletico Madrid v Barca - ko 20.00

League One - Millwall v Walsall - ko 19.45


Plenty more games on today. What will you be watching and betting on?
Please try and give a short explanation so that your bets and opinions can help others.

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby escorttdi » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:09 pm

all above matches away wins

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mazeymay » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:37 pm

all above matches away wins
and your reasons for all these games to finish as away wins ?

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby stretchpaul » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:12 am

This is a really strange one and if any member can shed light on these odds please let us all know!

In Nigeria there is a game which the top team is playing away to a side that is 5th bottom of the 20 team league.Plateau are the league leaders and have won 4 of their opening 5 games with no loss.The hosts are called Nasawara and have won 1 of their 5 league games.In a league of few goals and many draws you would of thought that the visitors would be at least evens or odds on for a win.They have scored more goals than anyone else averaging 2 goals a game.But look at the odds...

Nasawara vs Plateau

1=1.38
X=3.74
2=7.88

I have checked most of the top bookmaker sites and it is similar odds.

So the league leaders,unbeaten and in great form are almost 8/1 for a win against a team that is struggling.

Match fixing? probably

worth a punt?

Well I have covered the double chance and gone for over 0.5 goals for Plateau at odds of 2.80 and 2.34 respectively.Small stakes but still a chance of a decent return.

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby Inquisitorem » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:39 am

Looks to be a bit of a coin toss, stretchpaul. So 7's / 8's is very generous!
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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:01 pm

Hi stretchpaul, the reason the odds are so generous is because the Nigerian league has been notorious for some time for being the hardest league in the world in which to get an away win. This Guardian article from 2013 goes into some of the reasons for that: https://www.theguardian.com/football/bl ... e-win-away

Now, the Nigerian league may have become more professional/ less corrupt since then, but a quick look at the home and away league tables for this season suggest otherwise. Out of 50 league games played this season, only 2 have ended in an away win. For comparison, after 50 games of the English Premier League this season, there had been 18 away wins.

Therefore, I would strongly advise against betting on the away team in Nigeria, and as one of the most corrupt countries in the world (it ranked below Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Mexico in the Transparency International corruption index last year), it might be a good idea to avoid betting on anything in Nigeria at all.

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mazeymay » Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:19 pm

I have just looked up the game you are mentioning above and cant believe the stats
MB mentions about this league. It is the strangest league table I have ever looked at
I also looked at last seasons full table and just find it staggering that eight teams
remained unbeaten at home all season and only three teams lost more than twice at home
According to flashscore the date is the 5th, has this been changed ?

PS what a brilliant guardian piece that is, players here moan about having to travel to
two consecutive away games that might add up to 400-500 mile round trips, blimey at
least they are guaranteed to get to the ground without being robbed of beaten up en route
The referees don't seem to be looked after either, thanks for sharing MB

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:01 pm

Yes, the Guardian article is very informative, I didn't want to make a long post any longer by quoting from it, so I just gave the link to it, but there has frequently been serious violence towards referees when things don't go in the home team's favour, and more importantly, the payment system for officials is set up to practically guarantee corruption: as of the 2013 Guardian article (and presumably still, going by the incredible stats), the officials weren't paid by the league, but by the home team. :shock: I can't see any problems with that!

The result is a 4% away win ratio in the league, and in those two cases, the official would almost certainly have been offered more money by the away team. The team highlighted here had one of the 2 away wins this season (at odds of 11/2), so there may well be value in betting that they will out-bribe the home team here :hope:

Even just scanning the results and the odds for the 5 rounds of this season (can be found in easy to read format here: http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/niger ... ue/results), you can see how extraordinary this league is. First thing you might notice is that home teams are always odds on, second thing might be that they never seem to lose. 7 out of the 10 games in the last round ended in a home win, the other three ended in a draw.

Here's a remarkable little fact: it's been 40 league games since the last away win; from the 5 rounds of fixtures so far, only one round has featured an away win; for whatever reason, the first round featured two away wins: one at odds of 10/1 and the other the aforementioned at odds of 11/2 .

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby stretchpaul » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:08 pm

Moral of the story then...double chance (1X) on Nigerian soccer league will pretty much come up on any game.

Thanks for the insight guys,appreciated.I wont be backing away wins in this league for sure.Must be the most unprofitable league in world football.

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:29 pm

I actually think the small stakes bets you did select are decent enough value. There have been quite a few draws recently (8 in the last 20 games), so a draw is certainly not out of the question. The away team has scored in 7 of the last 20 games, albeit whilst winning none.

Here's another little Nigerian factoid: no home team has been priced bigger than 4/6 in any game this season (and the 4/6 came in, with a no doubt completely legitimate penalty for the home side in the 93rd minute :D )

-- match summary and odds here, lest anyone think that's a joke: http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/niger ... /bgoK0x59/

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections (non prem) - Weds 1st Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:56 pm

Looks like those games were moved to the weekend...

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