Backjack advice?

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Backjack advice?

Postby rounder » Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:18 pm

Started playing blackjack again after a little or long time off. Came up with some situations I would like to know what people do in.

1. A,A v dealer 10
2. 2,4 v dealer 4
3. 10,10 v dealer 9
4. 7,7 v dealer 8

Also,peoples opinion on INSURANCE?
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paddyrynne
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Postby paddyrynne » Wed Nov 28, 2007 3:23 pm

not an xpert by any means and if i tried to answer all the situations id probably be corrected but ill help u with a couple,

never split 10s, 20 is very hard to beat and with a 9 the dealer got a good chance of hitting 19. winner!

also ive heard that insurance give the house an extra edge something like 4% extra, something that you can ill afford. maybe a huge stakes its ok. but i never take insurance.

there is a cheat sheet on one of the online black jack tables that ive played, forget which one but it basically tells you exactly the right move 4 your cards against their card. could help to begin with but somepeople think it take out the fun!!!

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Postby betking » Wed Nov 28, 2007 4:21 pm

Started playing blackjack again after a little or long time off. Came up with some situations I would like to know what people do in.

1. A,A v dealer 10
2. 2,4 v dealer 4
3. 10,10 v dealer 9
4. 7,7 v dealer 8

Also,peoples opinion on INSURANCE?
_________________

1) Personally I always split the aces, nice chance of at least one Blackjack.

2) 2,4 is always a hit. If I then got a 10, making 16, I'd stick. With the dealer on 4, whatever card they next get they'll be drawing again, and if their 2nd card is high, they go bust more often than you think.

3) Stick. Never split 10s, very good hand, and like was said already, with the dealer on 9, a 10 puts them on 19 and you'd win.

4) 7,7 for me is a hit. If you split, and hit 2 10s, you'd have two 17s, with dealer possibly on an 18, so you would've doubled your bet, and increased your chances of losing. Hit and hope is what I'd do.

Insurance) Not worth it in my opinion. Went through a period where I used it, and noted results. Think it was something like 20 times of over 250 hands it was beneficial. Not a massive experiment, but after that I never used it again!
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008

Ok so I said that 4 years ago, slightly wrong, wasnt I? Hahaha

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Postby paddyrynne » Wed Nov 28, 2007 4:35 pm

QUOTE
1) Personally I always split the aces, nice chance of at least one Blackjack.

note: hitting BJ on a split DOESN'T pay 3 to 2!

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Postby Inatimate1 » Wed Nov 28, 2007 6:20 pm

Agree with Betking in the main
personally if the dealer shows anything less than a "7" face up, then definately stick on anything over "11", as the dealer has to hit until they have at least 17, and so the possibility of them busting is a lot higher....
Think about it in terms of number 2... They are showing a 4... So you take one card and stick on the value if over 11.

In terms of a percentage call using a single-deck for simplicity, there are a few outcomes that could happen...
32.7% chance of a "10" valued card being the face-down card...
48.98% chance of the next card leaving the dealer on 12 or higher...
42.86% chance of the next card giving the dealer a total of between "6" and "11" (a "no-risk" hit when less than 17 which could result in a total of "17" or over)
And finally there is an 8.2% chance of an ace being their other face down card...

Let us assume that the dealer hits a "10" for 14....

Now there is a 43.75% chance of a bust, a 12.5% chance of hitting 15 or 16 and needing to hit again, and only a 43.75% chance of winning with the next card...
Ideally you would like the dealer to hit a 2, and then a 10, as this would give one of the best percentage chances of you winning with the dealer being on 16....
63.83% chance of winning the hand...

The best action to take is to join a table with many different players, this way by keeping track of their cards, you can generally work out your percentages...
Easy enough with 4 players and the dealer if you use the rough calculation that every card counts for 2.5%, so any unshown set of numbers is 10%, with 2.5% taken off for each card on show, i.e. one eight on show gives the rough probability of 7.5% than an 8 is next out...
If you are the first to play the chance is actually 6.98%. (3/43).

Knowing little secrets like this could bide you well, there are tables for basic strategy, but learning your own in terms of percentage is the best method of attack in my view...

Take your option 3 for example 10,10 v 9...

You are on 20, so the dealer can only win with a 21...
Which can be made "simply" with a 2 and another 10 card, but firstly, if we took the percentage chances of the dealer "losing" with the first card, i.e. a 10, 9, or 8 would lead to "17" - "19" which means the player wins...

there is a 42.86% chance you will win with the turn of the dealers card...
8.16% chance of a push with the next card (Ace hit)
around a 49% chance of any other result..
the best possible number outside of the 10, 9 or 8, for the dealer to hit would be a "6"... this leads the chance of them winning with the next card to be around the 8.25% mark (as they would need another "6")
Always look at the face-up cards of the other players before making a decision like this. If they are all showing 2s and As then it is more than ideal to hit, as if none of them show a 10, 9 or 8, then the chance of the dealer losing against you with their next card becomes 48.84% chance, and the chance of the dealer winning falls drastically :win:

Hope this is some helpful insight and actually makes some sense :?
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Postby KhRotal » Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:37 am

Started playing blackjack again after a little or long time off. Came up with some situations I would like to know what people do in.

1. A,A v dealer 10
2. 2,4 v dealer 4
3. 10,10 v dealer 9
4. 7,7 v dealer 8

Also,peoples opinion on INSURANCE?
_________________
1. I always split because there is good chance to get 21.
2. I always hit.
3. I think 20 is good combination an so i never use split
4. I always split.

I use Insurance if i have bad combination.

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Postby rounder » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:14 am

hey all,

start by thanking all repliers, specially Inatimate1, very good piece :win:

Just going to write where im at with these things.

1:AA v 10
As a spit aces Blackjack doesnt give increased odds (tanx for the confirmation) I tend to just hit to 17+.

2:2,4 v 4
What i was really trying to get at here was having a low count against a dealer in trouble. Maybe saying against a 6 would have been better but when i have a low count (less than 12) and the dealer is holding a 4,5 or 6, I tend to always double and play for the dealer to bust.

3:10,10 v 9
I agree 20 is a good score and will keep when the dealer can count with a 10.

4:7,7 v 8
I dont really know why I put this here. This for me has to be hit. I think splitting 7's when the dealer is strong is just asking for trouble.


Now I been playing for a few days i got another couple I wouldnt mind a quick thought on.

1. 10,10 v dealer 6
20 is a monster hand but splitting with the possibility of putting yourself in trouble to get more money in the pot while the dealer is in trouble may seems like a good move?

2. when your cards count to 8 or 9 and the dealer is showing 7 or 8 respectivly. Is it worth the double?
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Postby paddyrynne » Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:17 am

again with the 10/10, i have read aind it is my thoughts that you never split 20, always stand!

and i think that yes i personally might double on an 8 when the dealer is showing a 7 or a 9 when hes showing an8, but i think that is personal, always double if you have 9 10 or 11 against a dealer 6 and 5, as he needs to draw twice.

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Postby betking » Sun Dec 02, 2007 5:47 pm

As far as my comment of "Split AA as good chane of BJs", someone pointed out it doesnt pay increased odds. I never said it did! But you've still got a winning hand, which was my point.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008

Ok so I said that 4 years ago, slightly wrong, wasnt I? Hahaha

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Postby rounder » Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:44 pm

thanx again folk.

1 more thing guys. On splitting.
I held 77 against the dealer 5. I split and get another 2 7s out. I am sitting on 2 14's against the dealer 5. I want to split again but that is not an option given. Is this just cos of where I play or is that a blackjack rule; only 1 split?
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Postby Inatimate1 » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:43 am

There are some places that allow a re-split rounder, bust most commonly only 1 is allowed.
Also some casinos allow the player to split two cards who's value is equal to 10 regardless of the card. i.e. a J & Q can be split...
You just have to look around for these rules, there was a table I found the other day, cannot remember what site it was on, but it gave the house advantage of each individual online casino in regards to BlackJack, which is a handy thing to get hold of in my view.
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THE ONLY WAY TO BEAT BLACKJACK

Postby TLEMCEN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:33 am

THE ONLY WAY TO BEAT BLACKJACK IS CARD COUNTING

you have to calculate the deck and what cards the dealer has, it gives professional websites to teach you COUNTING the deck, iam sorry i ca not post them here.
COUNTING is the method used by the PRO, and only so you can beat the dealer of course it will take time till you master counting.

look around on the net there is an american profi club that teach CARDS COUNTING but once you master this , i assure you you will BEAT Black jack.
good luck


*small advice NEVER TAKE INSURANCE
* NEVER SPLIT the 10`s
*ALWAYS double on 11
* HIT soft 16 when the dealer shows 9 or more
* NEVER hit hard 17

good luck

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