NBA bets 2013/2014

Dajesus
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Postby Dajesus » Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:27 am

hi all,

i never much venture to post anything on NBA until the playoffs - and I generally never touch game 1 because of the unpredictable nature - which was duly confirmed this weekend

I played the 2 games last night, and both were easy winners.

The playoffs are about game to game adjustments, and as such they usually provide an excellent opportunity to make some money.

So tonight,
Atlanta @ Indiana
Have to like Indiana -7 here.
I would be tremendously worried only about the shocking fall from grace that the the Pacers are showing since the all star weekend, but I have to give them blind faith that they get out and pound the Hawks in this game.
Atlanta will also know that it is unlikely that they will steal 2 games on the road, and as usually happens in these series, you will see them stop and look to gather themselves for game 3 at home.
This could be a big blowout for me, assuming assuming the Pacers play like they can. not the bumbling version of themselves.


BKN Nets @ Toronto
This is possibly the trickiest game of all the game 2's to call.
BKN have that experience of their big 2-3 players to lean on, whilst Toronto are doing it with a more youthful novice group of players.
Toronto and BKN have combined for some super tight games so far this year, so the prospect of a 4.5 pt chalk is appealing for the game 1 victors.
However, Toronto have some serious talent in their backcourt, and I cannot see them not getting off a serious effort tonight (minus nerves).

Tonight, they will have the ability to get into their groove, get their looks, and hopefully shoot the ball better.
If they get anywhere near their usual ability - shooting the open 3's, that will open it up a bit more inside for Terence Ross & Amir Johnson and Jonas.

There is no way that the Raptors will want to be in a situation whereby they might not be coming home for a game 5. That is the reason that I am backing them. The mental edge, the motivation, is going to be more for Toronto, whereas the Nets are thinking they stole 1 game, job done for now.

Toronto -4.5

Washington @ Bulls

Another tough game, but you have to presume that the Bulls are going to rebound from their poor late game collapse. This Wizards team can score in bunches, but usually does not defend very well.
So assuming the Bulls get their scoring going, I expect them to lock down the Wizards, and limit them to low % looks.
I see this being a safe cover
Bulls -5

lecceseadublino
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Indiana and Brooklyn

Postby lecceseadublino » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:41 pm

good ones Dajesus!

to me:

The Hawks led by Jeff Teague (28 points) won the first game in this play off versus Indiana.
I am expecting a rebound of the Pacers and with style (0-2 will be really difficult to bounce back, even if not impossible): -7.5 INDIANA

After Brooklyn defeated the Raptors in Toronto 94-87 on Saturday, Toronto will need a boost of confidence tonite but they have now lost three of their last five games an did not play a good basketball on game 1... I am not really sure but I see the Toronto Raptors winning by a very short margin here (2-3 points). let's go Brooklyn for a -4.5!

jpdench3
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Postby jpdench3 » Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:38 am

I couldnt back indiana but they showed up tonight

Took Raptors -4.5 (just got it)

and Bulls -5.5 (looks like they're back on top after a shaky start, will they choke again? hope not)

edit: they did.. OT Image

based on those two teams needing the win to avoid losing both home games

....

I am really liking Golden State +1.5, the public is reading too much into that 40 point win for the clippers. Golden State hasnt lost at home to the clippers the last 5 meetings AND Chris Paul has an injury concern.

I just cant back the clippers in that one.

Dajesus
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Postby Dajesus » Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:47 pm

Well last night went perfectly according to expectation, Bulls rolling, and the Under cashing - up until about the 3:06 mark in the Bulls game, with the solid Bulls team defending a Wizards possession, force an obvious out of bounds turnover, only for Joey Crawford to call it wrong (has there EVER been a worse ref in the NBA??!! This is the same guy that gave Tim Duncan a tech for laughing - while seated on the bench!!)

the wrong call turned into a second chance for the Wiz - they nailed an unlikely 3pointer, and all of a sudden we had a 1 possession game, instead of Bulls ball and 6 pt lead

From that point onwards, the Bulls started missing. Now they could have been getting tired - it took a lot out of them making the couple of comebacks - but FFS - that call I thought was really really defining moment in the stretch. I cannot for sure say they would have covered - but it looked like once it became a 1 possession game again, they tightened up (A LOT)

anyway the most skilled team won that game, but by all accounts, it shows how easily a blown call can swing a game.

Pacers - great but easy call & cover
Raps - as predicted, the 4.5 was just done (albeit, Nets nailed a late and uncontested 3 that otherwise would have made it a 7-8 pt win)

as with all gamblers, I spend more time on the ones i got wrong - than the ones I got right!

I will post later my opinions/plays for tonight's matches
some very intriguing matchups

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Postby jpdench3 » Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:47 am

Bobcats +10.5 :cool:

And Mavs are again in position to win, can they finish it off.

Dajesus
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Postby Dajesus » Thu Apr 24, 2014 3:18 pm

There are some really nice games happening tonight. Major bookie trap games as I see it!
and in the spirit of the best possible NBA matchups possible, we have 3 tied series going into what is normally a pivotal game 3

Usually, in a tied series, the game 3 winner has a major statistical edge as far as progressing from the series.
So you cannot understate the value of a win tonight.

Beginning with the Pacers @ Hawks
This one is a real puzzle to solve. Are we going to get the Pacers from the first 5 quarters of play, or the one that finished so strongly in game 2

My main concern is the negative influence within the team of Evan Turner. He obviously doesnt seem to fit in with his new teammates, as evidenced by the locker room bust up after game 1.
And you will notice that he put in minimal effort in game 2. He logged 11mins, wt a +/- of -12 when on the floor; grabbed a couple of rebounds and shot just once!

In game 1, he was more involved, and it seems in game 2 he was only used when they absolutely had to spot their starters some rest.

So bad chemistry is a really big negative for me. They managed to overcome that on their own floor - but will they be able to repeat that on the Hawks home court? *(where they have a shoddy recent record)

I think the Hawks are going to be able to space the floor, pulling Hibbert out of the paint covering Antic, and that should give Teague the lanes to be able to drive into the paint as he did so well in game 1. Another major factor would be Millsap, he is very underrated and could be one to cause problems tonight.

And lastly, anytime when you see the bookies trying to tempt you in with a sucker line like you have tonight in all 3 games, I would be very very wary

My call is Hawks +2 and I also think they win this game outright
it might not even be all that close

lecceseadublino
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PORTLAN -- HOUSTON

Postby lecceseadublino » Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:43 pm

Portland’s new hero LaMarcus Aldridge has shifted the favourite side from Houston shirts with impressive play offs games (not last 43 points the other day sealing the 2-0 for his side).

At home they can seriously bring the contest close to an end...so I go with LaMarcus tonite (even if in regular season they won a game each...)

lecceseadublino
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Well done guys

Postby lecceseadublino » Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:45 pm

BTW , very good analysis Dajesus and congrats jpdench3 on recent exploits (BobCats easy maybe but CHAPEAU on Mavericks!)

jpdench3
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Postby jpdench3 » Sat Apr 26, 2014 5:41 am

Nets hold off raptors, just missed the cover, Nets 2-1!

Bulls/Wizards series continues being a road team haven. Wizards 2-1

And Rockets held on despite another crazy blazers rally to get back in that series. Blazers 2-1

jpdench3
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Postby jpdench3 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:00 am

Wizards -2 & wizards ML :win:

Warriors +2 & warriors ML :win:

Nets -4 & Nets ML :lose: (surprised about that one, maybe not giving raptors enough credit)

blazers -2 & blazers ML :win: (just)

another dramatic OT game there, should just stick with the over bets.

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Postby undertherobe » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:54 am

Does anyone think all the off the court stuff with the Clippers is threatening to ruin their season? I know they still have potentially 2 home games left but what the atmosphere will be like is anyone's guess and for parts of last night's game it looked like no-one on the Clippers side wanted to be there.

jpdench3
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Postby jpdench3 » Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:03 am

I don\'t think it will affect the clippers at all. The blowout win by GS in game 4 was probably retaliation for game 2. I expect clips to win game 5 easily, besides they usually lose in golden state. It was more a shock they actually pulled off the win in game 3.

I got bobcats ( lol ) pacers and spurs tonight

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