2018 Oscars

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue May 16, 2017 4:19 pm

It's Jimmy...Kinmel. Again.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sat May 20, 2017 9:10 pm

It's Jimmy...Kinmel. Again.
Quite a decent shout and a safe bet.

Cannes festival on just now, let's see if it produces any Oscar chat

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:28 pm

The trailer for The Darkest Hour has been released. And Gary Oldman kooks really good in it!

Long way to go but that's a start!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

William Hill go a kind of skinny 6/4 which likely makes Gary Oldman their favourite. The make-up job is remarkable and the critics will likely go crazy for him over say, oooh Brian Cox in the recent "Chruchill" film.

Was looking at various bookies and Coral and Ladbrokes have fairly similar ante-post odds on Best Picture with "Dunkirk" the nominal 5/1 favourite. Nary a bad word said about it so far either. I think Christopher Nolan looks good to finally be nominated and even win Best Director but for the film itself!? I dunno.

The last few years have shown there's been a slight disconnect between the directors branch and the rest of AMPAS as to what should win Best Director and Best Picture as they have not been going to the same film. If there's a political or diverse film floating about than they can easily sway away from the nominations leader yet again for Best Picture.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:02 am

William Hill go a kind of skinny 6/4 which likely makes Gary Oldman their favourite. The make-up job is remarkable and the critics will likely go crazy for him over say, oooh Brian Cox in the recent "Chruchill" film.

Was looking at various bookies and Coral> and target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/1/L3/D/words'>Ladbrokes> have fairly similar ante-post odds on Best Picture with "Dunkirk" the nominal 5/1 favourite. Nary a bad word said about it so far either. I think Christopher Nolan looks good to finally be nominated and even win Best Director but for the film itself!? I dunno.

The last few years have shown there's been a slight disconnect between the directors branch and the rest of AMPAS as to what should win Best Director and Best Picture as they have not been going to the same film. If there's a political or diverse film floating about than they can easily sway away from the nominations leader yet again for Best Picture.

Interesting!

I couldn't see odds for Oscar stuff but will have a look later!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:29 am

Ladbrokes's odds on 'Best Picture':

Dunkirk 5/1
The Current War 6/1
Phantom Thread 8/1
The Papers 10/1
Darkest Hour 12/1
Wonderstruck 12/1
Call Me By Your Name 14/1
Get Out 16/1
Mudbound 16/1
Murder on the Orient Express 16/1
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16/1
Mother! 16/1
The Florida Project 18/1
The Greatest Showman 18/1
The Shape of Water 18/1
Battle of the Sexes 20/1
Suburbicon 20/1
The Mountain Between Us 20/1
Baby Driver 25/1
Blade Runner 2049 25/1
Detroit 25/1
Roman Israel, Esq. 25/1
Annihilation 33/1
Colossal 33/1
Downsizing 33/1
Marshall 33/1
Molly's Game 33/1
The Beguiled 33/1
Beauty & The Beast 50/1
Okja 50/1
The Lost City of Z 50/1
War for the Planet of the Apes 50/1
Logan 66/1
All Eyez On Me 100/1
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 100/1
Spider Man: Homecoming 100/1
The Fate of the Furious 100/1
Wonder Woman 100/1

=============

I think the 5/1 on "Dunkirk" may be trimmed into 7/2 or less by next week with the growing avalanche of critical and industry support it has right now. Whatever film wins the Audience Award at Toronto may not necessarily become the immediate frontrunner and could even be thwarted by the 'right on' choice yet again...which I'm not really sure what it could be right now. "Detroit"!?

Am not convinced Daniel-Day Lewis gets a 'farewell' nomination for 'Phantom Thread" but who really knows!?

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:35 pm

target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/1/L3/D/words'>Ladbrokes's odds on 'Best Picture':

Dunkirk 5/1
The Current War 6/1
Phantom Thread 8/1
The Papers 10/1
Darkest Hour 12/1
Wonderstruck 12/1
Call Me By Your Name 14/1
Get Out 16/1
Mudbound 16/1
Murder on the Orient Express 16/1
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16/1
Mother! 16/1
The Florida Project 18/1
The Greatest Showman 18/1
The Shape of Water 18/1
Battle of the Sexes 20/1
Suburbicon 20/1
The Mountain Between Us 20/1
Baby Driver 25/1
Blade Runner 2049 25/1
Detroit 25/1
Roman Israel, Esq. 25/1
Annihilation 33/1
Colossal 33/1
Downsizing 33/1
Marshall 33/1
Molly's Game 33/1
The Beguiled 33/1
Beauty & The Beast 50/1
Okja 50/1
The Lost City of Z 50/1
War for the Planet of the Apes 50/1
Logan 66/1
All Eyez On Me 100/1
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 100/1
Spider Man: Homecoming 100/1
The Fate of the Furious 100/1
Wonder Woman 100/1

=============

I think the 5/1 on "Dunkirk" may be trimmed into 7/2 or less by next week with the growing avalanche of critical and industry support it has right now. Whatever film wins the Audience Award at Toronto may not necessarily become the immediate frontrunner and could even be thwarted by the 'right on' choice yet again...which I'm not really sure what it could be right now. "Detroit"!?

Am not convinced Daniel-Day Lewis gets a 'farewell' nomination for 'Phantom Thread" but who really knows!?
Its quite an interesting race is year.

Dunkirk is out maybe too early but may feature. Its a varied year where there's a lot of break out hits. Watch the likes of Baby Driver, Get Out, The Big Sick and Logan causing an upset.

And Wonder Woman!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:30 pm

I think of those lot you mentioned only "Get Out" is being championed with any seriousness for 'Best Picture'. Think it will have to settle for 'Best Original Screenplay' alongside "The Big Sick". "Baby Driver" will likely only get one or two technical nominations if it's lucky such as 'Best Sound Effects Editing', and "Logan" won't get any nominations.

FYI: Have shifted over to Flickr as Photobucket are not allowing third party hosting on a free account...the photos in the links I've put up over the years will still be there but they won't show up here.

William Hill go out to 2/1 from 5/4 on Gary Oldman...

Image

...but Coral go as high as 3/1 that he wins Best Actor presumably for "Darkest Hour". They've also trimmed "Dunkirk" into 5/2.

Image

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:27 am

When was the last time a film was released as early as Dunkirk that won Best Picture? Off the top of my head I'd say Gladiator but I might be wrong.

Still too early to tell but I'm still going for Gary Oldman!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:33 pm

Right!

I don't have a feel of anything in particular. Steven Speilberg has one coming out called The Papers with Oscar bait Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep that should do well.

Other films that catch my eye include Call Me By My Name and Downsizing. Also The Darkest Hour could ride on the coat tails of Dunkirk and earn a shot at the Oscars.

I'm going for Mudbound. An ensemble piece with two clans after the Second World War it picked up a lot of hype at Sundance. The likes of Jason Mitchell and Mary J Blige are supposed to excel in their roles.

There are things against it. It's being distributed by Netflix who need to prove their worth in award season.

But I think it may appeal in the way Spotlight did, an ensemble piece of acting for a mature audience.

The odds were shorter but I seen it in Paddy Power at 25/1.

Mudbound to win Best Picture Oscar 25/1

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby Sagand » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:20 pm

When was the last time a film was released as early as Dunkirk that won Best Picture? Off the top of my head I'd say Gladiator but I might be wrong.
It'd be The Hurt Locker given a limited release in June and wide in the US in July. Dunkirk seems to have impressed people but they don't love it; much more likely to win director than picture imo. (It'll probably be nominated in the of the techs and win editing and the two sound categories)

The Papers doesn't seem to me like a likely winner either Spielberg, Hanks and Streep may be big names but lack the subtlety and sense of being a discovery recent Best Pictures have had. It's the kind of film that would have won in the 80s/90s.

I have my eye on The Florida Project which is about poor kids in Orlando which was shown at Cannes to great reviews (only likely to get better when released, Cannes critics tend to be snobs), Willem Dafoe seems like a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor. It's an A24 release, the same company that released Moonlight last year. Available at 40/1 at Betfred.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:56 am

When was the last time a film was released as early as Dunkirk that won Best Picture? Off the top of my head I'd say Gladiator but I might be wrong.
It'd be The Hurt Locker given a limited release in June and wide in the US in July. Dunkirk seems to have impressed people but they don't love it; much more likely to win director than picture imo. (It'll probably be nominated in the of the techs and win editing and the two sound categories)

The Papers doesn't seem to me like a likely winner either Spielberg, Hanks and Streep may be big names but lack the subtlety and sense of being a discovery recent Best Pictures have had. It's the kind of film that would have won in the 80s/90s.

I have my eye on The Florida Project which is about poor kids in Orlando which was shown at Cannes to great reviews (only likely to get better when released, Cannes critics tend to be snobs), Willem Dafoe seems like a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor. It's an A24 release, the same company that released Moonlight last year. Available at 40/1 at http://olbg.info/58/L40/D/words>Betfred>.
Florida Project could be a shout!

I like Defoe. One of those actors who doesn't get the credit he deserves.

Maybe it's his time!

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