Betting On the Oscars 2016

LustForLeith
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Postby LustForLeith » Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:07 pm

Right...

My plan was the following. Michael fasttbnder lost out a few years ago for 12 Years A Slave in Horne Best Supporting category. At the time British bookies thought he had it sewn up and misjudged Jared Leto getting the nod.

My thought was the following - the bookies would do the same this year. Fessenden seems to be impressive in Steve Jobs. He's Irish (almost British) and there's some bias towards Brits/Irish in betting.

But while the film has done well with critics, it's not capture the publics imagination as muh as I thought it would. I thought Fassenbenders odds would be a lot shorter, money on, allowing someone to swoop in.

At this point I'd say Fassenbenders has a shout of being nominated. Will Smith for the NFL head injury film Concussion has a shot as does Johnny depp for a black Mass.

But I think there's a chance they'll get beat. And it's by Leonardo Di Caprio....

Critics have finally seen The Revenat but reviews are embargoed until 4 December. What has been said is that the film is long and it's gory (some apparently walked out).

Di Caprio is supposed to be amazing in it.

Nominated five times, so unlucky not to get something for The Wolf Of Wall Street, this could be his year. I was hoping Fassbenders shortened odds would push out Leo but Di Caprio is 2/1. I'd take that just now because I think come December he'll be a lot shorter.

Leonardo Di Caprio best actor 2/1

I've not yet made a tip for Best Director. I really want George Miller to win this but I don't think he will. He might not get the nomination he deserves.

But I'm going for Ridley Scott. The Martian has dazzled the American box office in a not dissimilar way to Gravity did. Will it win best picture? I'm still going for spotlight, but Scott looks like a worthy contender for best director.

Ridley Scott best director 14/1

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Postby LustForLeith » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:56 am

Di Caprios odds are tumbling. Best priced 13/8, I've got a feeling come 4December they'll be shorter...

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Postby LustForLeith » Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:10 am

The reviews for The Revenat have come out after their embargo.

The film looks set to divide opinion, it might not be the winner of best film or director.

Di Caprios performance is mainly silent as he battles the elements seeking revenge. The nine month nightmare shoot is becoming the stuff of legend and by the looks of it Di Caprio does well in the role. Empire said if he doesn't win the Oscar for this then he'll need to do the Mother Theresa bio pic.

I think he's also got a lack of competition. Odds are about 10/11 but could be shorter very soon.

Tom hardy does enough but not that much to push himself into best supporting consideration.

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Postby stereoman » Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:59 am

Nominations for Screen Actors Guild awards later on today. Unibet have ante-post odds up for every category. Will put 'em up later for 'old times sake'.

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Postby curleybet » Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:14 pm

share best actor DiCaprio now gone 1.85 Overall, I had a little bet to 3.00 goldbet 10 days fà.sono also on the spotlight at 4.00, 2.85 and brie larson thomas mccarthy in 5.00.miglior picture, best actress and best regista.quote down now..

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Postby stereoman » Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:50 am

Yeah, I'd say 'Spotlight' for Best Picture (it's so mediocre but it's being embraced) and Leonardo DiCaprio winning Best Actor look very good right now. Michael Fassbinder is NOT campaigning. Bryan Cranston, Johnny Depp and Eddie Redmayne seem feeble opposition for Leo to finally win.

The momentum for Brie Larson and Rooney Mara gets stronger with Cate Blanchett/Saoirse Ronan and Alicia Vikander providing the only credible opposition against either respectively.

Those on 10s+ on Mark Rylance to win Supporting Actor are laughing. History dictates that Steven Spielberg has only ever directed ONE person to an acting win (Daniel Day-Lewis for 'Lincoln', fact fans). This year it might be two. Only Idris Elba seemingly stands in his way. Some might say Jacob Tremblay has a chance...I'd say your knees have gone.

We'll have to see if the Golden Globes nominations bring joy to the likes of Michael Keaton, Jennifer Lawrence and even Sylvester Stallone. The SAG award nominations were 'all over the place'. Can easily see half of those who got SAG nominations missing out on Oscar nominations.

It's such a pitifully weak year for film that it's an absolute write-off.

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Postby LustForLeith » Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:51 pm

Said it on here that George Miller is a great outsider. Went for Ridley Scott for best director but dint rule out Miller getting it

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Postby LustForLeith » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:29 pm

Di Caprio best price 4/9 now...

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Postby stereoman » Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:14 am

BLECH!! Unibet have taken down their ante-post odds on every category and most will only other odds on Picture, Director and the acting races.

Because of the way the awards season has been scheduled, it's thrown up all sorts of results and weirdly even though the Golden Globes aren't to be taken seriously, most oddsmakers have cut their odds on 'The Revenant' and Alejandro G Inarritu rather sharpish...mind you, 'Spotlight' doesn't appear to be that great of a frontrunner at the Oscars.

I'd say to look out for 'The Big Short' which huh, is on the drift after being backed as the likely spoiler to 'Spotlight' but could easily be back as a contender especially if Adam 'Anchorman' McKay gets a nomination in Best Director.

No thinking required as to the fact that they'll win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, 'Inside Out' and 'Son of Saul'.

Everything else is seemingly up for grabs.

Had a preview but hey, real life and all that.

EDIT: Heh. Someone's edited the title of this thread for you, Lust!

Just looking at the odds I posted on the first page. The Revenant...5/1! Leonardo DiCaprio...4/1! Brie Larson...33/1! :shock:

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Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 24, 2016 3:35 am

PGA awards announce their winner not too long from now.

Here are the odds before the winner's announced...

Image

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Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:11 am

It's 'The Big Short'! I'd be absolutely stunned if Adam McKay wins Best Director though! :shock:

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Postby shedrule1983 » Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:40 pm

i agree with the big short.Watched spotlight last night and was not that impressed(i know that means nothing)

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