Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

wonderwall
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Postby wonderwall » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:55 pm

Hi it does make good sense to lay at 1.22 & back at 1.96, so you get 1.95/1.22 = 160% return.

Bt you could more backing the outsider so leaving over-rounds & liquidity, the inverse of 1.22 is 5.55, inverse of 1.95 is 2.05, so you'd get 5.55/2.05=246% ROI.

Betfairalfie
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Postby Betfairalfie » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:18 pm

I admire your use of smoke and mirrors :D but it's the same ROI% for a level profit according to my calculations.

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Postby wonderwall » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:38 pm

ok, you're right, I follow now, there would be a different amount placed in the 1st instance, smoke and mirrors unintentional !

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Postby Betfairalfie » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:50 pm

I use a back to lay calculator on my phone and use a 100 stake so it gives ROI%

My preference is cashoutcalc for Android, as it includes a dutching calculator, which is handy for over/under 2.5 set bets.

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Re: WILED

Postby Jack Bauer » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:11 pm

A question for those that bet regularly on tennis really.

I see very little value in tennis but was wondering what odds are like if the favourite loses the first set.

For example, Davydenko lost the first set today, what odds did he go out to at this point ?

Is this were the real value lies as over the course of the match i would still expect him to come through?
I don't really think we can assume the price on davydenko becomes value all of a sudden just because he is now around a 1.9 compared to say, 1.25 pre match price. You may not think the 1.25 price is of great value but what you are saying is the new price a set down could be value, yet the pre match price isn't.

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Postby wonderwall » Mon Sep 26, 2016 1:25 pm

Yes, that can be value, if I give you odds of 1.25 on a coin toss, its not good value, as long-term you'll lose. If I give you odds of 2.25, then that is good value, as long-term you'll win. Same event, but odds are now value.

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Postby Betfairalfie » Mon Sep 26, 2016 1:42 pm

WW - your analogy is a bit simplistic and I've learnt that Jack knows his stuff. A coin toss is always a 50/50 shout. Players winning from a set down isn't.

Is a price of 1.90 a set down always value when the SP was 1.25? You'd have to make a judgement call including;

- what happened first set. Was it close? Was it lost due to 2 unforced errors....
- what's the players record after losing 1st set. Maybe it's an early round match and the player often takes a while to warm up?
- medical/fitness issue.

Ultimately it's a personal judgement call unless you have a well polished crystal ball to help. Available on Ebay no doubt, but why would anyone sell one if it worked?

A frustrating sport at times, but the alternatives are even worse!

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Postby Jack Bauer » Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:04 pm

Yes, that can be value, if I give you odds of 1.25 on a coin toss, its not good value, as long-term you'll lose. If I give you odds of 2.25, then that is good value, as long-term you'll win. Same event, but odds are now value.
Not really sure where you are going with this, of course 1.25 isn't good value on a coin toss. 2.25 a coin toss is fantastic value but nobody is offering you 2.25 on a 100% 50/50 match. Davydenko at 1.25 vs some low ranked player isn't a coin toss, he is a 1.25 chance or close to one. If he is to go down a set to a weak opponent that doesn't mean you are getting value all of a sudden, you may as well just bet on every 1/4 chance each time he loses a set based on this theory, best of luck with that.

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Postby wonderwall » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:46 pm

No you don't get value all of a sudden, but the original poster mentioned "i would still expect him to come through".

That being his benchmark, when the player is a set down with better odds, it must represent better value than at start of match.

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Postby Betfairalfie » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:58 pm

WW - first of,f apologies for giving you bad advice about that "lose first set but win the match" bet being possible value. Its no such thing as I'm sure the shrewdies have spotted.

I am still a novice unlike Jack. To prove it I checked Davydenko''s recent record after losing first set lol. He retired 2 years ago. The recent question about him on this thread was a cut n paste from 2009.

Based on his stats I'd have answered NO he was never value @1.90 a set down, and I've have been a SP Layer @1.25 too. It's tomorrow''s matches I'd struggle with.

Be Lucky :)

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Postby Jack Bauer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:22 pm

Well if the gambler still expects him/her to come through, this is based on the thinking that you are taking 1.9 on a 1.25 player so it become irrelevant that this player has even lost the first set. Surely if you expect this player to win even when a set down you should be having a max bet over and over in this scenario as the odds you are taking, in this case 1.9, on a 1.25 player is always huge value. You don\'t have to use davydenko as the example, you can use any player. It doesn\'t matter if you expect him to still win or not, the fact is, with this mindset you as a gambler should be hammering the 1.9 price over and over if you think you are getting 1.9 on a 1.25 chance.

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Postby TheHawkz » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:28 pm

I would be interested to know how odds are worked out to win a set. Looking at set markets for future matches Goffin is 1.24 to win a match tomorrow but he's 1.39 to win set 1.

We can use these figures to try and workout what price a 1.25 shot should be a set down. Formula to win set 2 x to win set 3, for Davydenko. 1.39 x 1.39 = 1.93 then take into account your opinion/events of the match so far to adjust the price for you. To be honest Davydenko is probably not the best player to use this example on :P

maybe a tactic could be to note the set 1 winner price before the match starts, then adjust it to what you feel it should have been after set 1 is complete. From this you can use your new price to workout the price for each player to win the match. So Goffin is 1.39 to win set 1, loses set 1 but won 4 of last 5 games so you think he is dominating from now on, price to win each set from now with our adjustment is 1.35, so 1.35 x 1.35 = 1.82 to win the last 2 sets, then we can decide to back or lay the price on offer by the bookmaker.

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