2:40 Newbury Tips

Rated 103. TOP GUY is towards the bottom of the weights in this 17-runner field. He landed his first win over hurdles last time out, winning a 3-mile novice handicap (soft, good to soft in places) by 1¼ lengths. That came off a mark of 98 with a 3 lb claimer on board. He was held up in the rear that day and finished very strongly to win convincingly at the end. That gave the impression that there is plenty more to come. The stable jockey is back on board today for a yard in excellent form. Dan Skelton has sent out 19 runners over hurdles in the past 14 days, recording 7 winners (strike rate: 36.84%) to a level-stakes profit of +0.18. The testing ground, together with plenty of pace in the race, should be ideal for this horse, who has proven to see out the strip strongly.

This horse represents last year's winning connections, and interestingly his last win was over the same C&D as their winner last year had previously won at prior to taking this race. The last run can be ignored (jockey one place in 20 rides), and prior to that was his seasonal debut run. I'm happy to ignore those two efforts and instead look to the staying-on third behind The New Lion and Belliano. That form gives him a major chance of being in the mix here, especially since this extra trip looks sure to suit, and the 25/1 looks way too generous.