5:05 Ayr Tips

Just Dottie has been primarily a hurdler but has now had three runs on the flat, improving with each and winning last time over 1m 5f. The first two went clear of the field. It isn't exciting form, but it confirms ongoing improvement, and there is little in the field to suggest it will stop with a six-pound penalty.

EBONY MAW has won five races from 1m 2f to 1m 7f. Ninth over 1m 5f at Ayr on his latest outing earlier this month. Upped in trip to 1m 7f should suit. Seems well treated and could well be able to win this race.

Race 7 at Ayr today is a Handicap (Class 6) for 3-year-olds and upwards, 3,018 m. The suggested wager is for the each way on the 9-year-old gelding Young Merlin from the Rebecca Menzies yard, and will be ridden by Kaiya Fraser. This son of Camelot is a five-time winner and has caught the eye in his last two starts, finding form again. He won't find too many weaker fields than today and should be a dangerous customer.

Churchwarden travels from John McConnell's yard in Ireland and really looks the part to take this race by the scruff of the neck in the soft conditions. Big chance.

Ed Dunlop has booked Joe Fanning to ride, and having a lightweight here, Captious Cantor can make it pay and stay on strongly for a winning result, showing improvement on his fourth place at Thirsk.

This horse has all the usual stats: C&D, going, and class wins to her name. Her form is nothing to write home about, but she is capable if she's up for it. At the price, I'm willing to take a chance.