Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips

Scheffler is seeking a hat trick of wins at Bay Hill. He won the event in 2022 and 2024. He is the world No. 1 and the clear favorite to win this event again.

World number 2 Rory McIlroy is in good form, having just finished 2nd in the Genesis Invitational. He won this event in 2018 and finished 2nd in 2023. He has finished top 5 in 4 out of his last 7 competitions. I predict him to do well in this event.

Fitzpatrick has played well in recent weeks. Just a few loose shots, and he will be looking to keep his form up here with another strong performance.

As one of the form players in the early stages of this year's PGA Tour, I think Collin Morikawa represents a bit of value at 22/1 as the Tour shifts to the East Coast. Collin has a win and a T7 in the last couple of weeks as the Tour starts to build towards the Players and the Masters and his tee to green expertise should stand him in good stead this week. He has course form too, finishing a close second behind Russell Henley last year.

There have been positive signs of improvement from Aberg in his last two events. He was slow out of the blocks in both, posting a 72 and 75, but responded well with rounds of 66, 66, 67, 68, 69, and 69. If you cut out the loose first round, he should go well here, as he won in 2023.

Henley returns to Bay Hill as the defending champion. Henley has a win, a 4th, and a 6th-place finish, all within his last five starts in the state of Florida.

Shane Lowry looks over-priced to me, possibly as a reaction to the implosion at the Cognizant on Sunday, where he blew a good lead in the last 3 holes. What that did show, was that he is in great form and his game is well-suited to Bay Hill, with a 3rd in 2024 and 7th last year. With the each way value on offer, I think he rates a value price at 40/1 and would make him considerably shorter, probably around 25s to 28s in my book.

Justin Rose has the ability to get into the mix, it just depends on whether he can play to his better form. Missed the cut last time but that may mean he puts in more effort and a better performance here, capable of bouncing back from last time.

Day is a former winner of this event. He finished 8th here last year and has started off 2026 in decent form with a runner-up finish at the Amex. Odds of 67.0 offer value.