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+972 profit on Horse Racing in the last year
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Should Peter Fahey's 9-year-old gelding TUCKMILL get in from the first reserve spot, then I really don't think you could write him off - especially at current 20/1 odds. This son of COURT CAVE's race was over before it even began 61 days ago, with a fall at the first in Listed chase company at Punchestown. But if we look at this charge’s run at Leopardstown (17f, good/yielding) over the Christmas period, he ran a blinder in fifth - just one length behind some very capable sorts in AN PEANN DEARG and THE KING OF PRS - off today’s mark of 114. And while this is competitive, it’s nowhere near as deep. Jockey Jake Coen sheds 3lbs and knows this lad inside out, with two wins and two places from six runs aboard. He also boasts a very respectable 41.67% five-year place strike rate at this track. This lad may not jump off the page, but his Leopardstown form reads well in this context, and he could easily sneak into the frame if lining up. Fingers crossed he gets a run - because this is a charge that appears to be hiding in plain sight, and one I’m happy to keep on side.
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Philip Byrne’s 9-year-old gelding SILENT FLIGHT is currently trading at odds I like - a whopping 40/1 - and if I’m being honest, I can’t quite see why. Yes, this son of MAHLER was pulled up just 24 days ago at Punchestown, but I was genuinely surprised to see him upped to such a staying distance (25f). If you’re of a forgiving nature, his penultimate run at Wexford was actually quite encouraging. Despite falling, he looked bang there around the 2-mile mark and only began to tire approaching 18f. Now dropped 3lbs in the weights - with another 5lbs taken off thanks to jockey Aiden Kelly - and crucially returning to 2½ miles, I’m more than happy to take a chance on this lightly raced lad. There’s a fair argument he’s simply been running over the wrong trip lately, and today’s conditions could suit him much better. He’s not the most obvious on paper, but if he can repeat that Wexford effort and stay on his feet, he could outrun those odds. At 40/1, with a more suitable trip and weight, I think he’s worth a small each way play & I'm more than happy to give him another chance.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.
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