Donald Trump Indicted For Second Time In 2023: Updated Odds Surrounding His Run For The White House

Updated: 12 Politics & Current Affairs

His first indictment helped Trump separate himself from the Republican field, will that be the case with these new charges?

Donald Trump Indicted For Second Time In 2023: Updated Odds Surrounding His Run For The White House
Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • This new indictment has come with 37 separate charges.
  • The headline charge is that he may have violated the Espionage Act which prohibits the retention of classified materials.
  • It is unlikely that this case will see the inside of a courtroom until the summer of 2024 at the earliest.

Donald Trump's legal woes continue. The former president was slapped with a 37-count indictment last week. The 49-page document was unsealed and released to the public on Friday and detailed the DOJ's case against Trump. The indictment is centered around the Espionage Act, a statute that prohibits the obstruction of an official proceeding, a statute that prohibits falsifying or destroying records pertinent to a federal investigation, and multiple statutes that prohibit making false statements and conspiracy. Trump has already gone on the offensive via his Truth Social account and on the campaign trail. He continues to deny any wrongdoing, while attacking the DOJ and Biden Administration. Additionally, he continues to make outlandish statements including a moment from a public appearance on Friday when he promised the crowd that he would "never be detained." When he was indicted in the spring, it was unclear how his legal troubles would impact his political polling and fundraising efforts. Those questions have been answered on both fronts. His fundraising exploded after he was indicted in March, pulling in $34 million by mid-April.  And in the polls, he's pulling away from the competition. He has more than doubled his lead over Ron DeSantis since that March indictment. Sportsbooks have dinged him a bit for this latest indictment, but they still view him as the candidate to beat on the Republican side of the aisle. 

Odds To Win The Republican Primary

Player Moneyline Probability
Donald Trump -235 70.15%
Ron DeSantis +200 33.33%
Tim Scott +1800
5.26%
Nikki Haley
+2500 3.85%
Tucker Carlson +4000
2.44%
Mike Pence +4000
2.44%
Glenn Youngkin
+5000
1.96%
Kristi Noem
+7000
1.41%
Liz Cheney
+7500
1.32%
Tulsi Gabbard
+8500
1.16%
Josh Hawley
+9000 1.10%
Marco Rubio
+9500 1.04%

While it's clear that Trump could use this case to his advantage, both in fundraising and with likely Republican voters, there is now detailed polling data that indicates this classified documents case could hurt him in the general election. A poll last month from the WPA Intelligence found that "an indictment in the classified-documents probe would shave a few points off Trump’s margin in a hypothetical general election against President Biden." In the initial poll from WPA, Biden led Trump 47-40. But when they added in a hypothetical that Trump was charged for mishandling classified documents, Biden's lead increased to 50-39. Polling data like this is reflected in betting odds at the majority of sportsbooks. Biden remains the lone favorite across the board, hovering in the -110 to +150 range across the market to win reelection. 

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