david37

Profit is the aim and the first principles applied to all my selections are time, class, weight, trainer and jockey ratings. Everyone has their own systems and methods regarding betting. My own approach, which has evolved over many years, means I won't take a price below 2/1 under any circumstances. The reason is simple. Most of my methods involve a minimum strike rate of 30% overall. Horses below 2/1, even the winners, will only erode the profit over time. Sometimes I will tip/back a favourite - if it is 3/1 or 7/2 say, but as time goes on it becomes clear: there are many, many more bad favourites than good ones. Those wily bookies will often make a horse favourite and create the illusion that it has been heavily backed. Have fun and take care.

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david37's Tips History

30 October 2025

20:30 8:30 Southwell

Magna

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

She has been ridden various ways and tends to be a bit keen. Drawn 1 tonight and top on the clock so it may be a chance to make all and round off a good day for the trainer.

20:15 8:15 Chelmsford City

Time Tested

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Win

175

The front two in the market both know how to win and this is a live chance for the Bell/Crouch double. Already a winner here and could still be well treated.

20:00 8:00 Southwell

Jimmy Henry

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@26.00

Lose

-50

Should have won before now, so he maybe has an undiagnosed issue. This trip should be ideal, and he certainly has the figures to win. He has faded tamely at the business end of many of his races, so that needs to be overcome.

19:45 7:45 Chelmsford City

Cardinal Point

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.50

Win

A bit short for my betting purposes but has the clear advantage on time lines and still has scope for improvement. Another chance for Hector to shine and the trainer has a good hit rate here.

19:30 7:30 Southwell

Shimmering Sands

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

Three most recent runs have been improving ones and now has the best of the weight rates. Best run was here last year over the same trip. Now 11 points lower which should be a winning mark.

19:15 7:15 Chelmsford City

Juno Star

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

She did it nicely at Southwell last week, and that was an apprentice race, so no penalty tonight. The only 3yo in the field and just a good start needed.

19:00 7:00 Southwell

Gilthoniel

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

She is the rag, and the trip is definitely an unknown. But this is her handicap debut, and there are certainly no world-beaters in opposition today.

18:45 6:45 Chelmsford City

Poetic Jack

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

The Rag of the field but is top on the clock and has dropped to a mark which is below the latest winning effort.

18:30 6:30 Southwell

Nunc Est Bibendum

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Not made much impression since coming over from Ireland and now drops down into the worst grade available. Has figures to get involved and has been much more fancied in the market today.

18:15 6:15 Chelmsford City

Gaiety Musical

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Close rated with Aramis Grey and looks the percentage shot in what looks like a very tricky race. It is obviously made more difficult for the riders after the sudden demise of a cherished weighing room colleague.

18:00 6:00 Southwell

One Night Thunder

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Only around 25% of races tend to be truly run, so weight and class rates tend to shape the market. It is very tricky to determine beforehand whether a race will go to the class aspect or the time factor. All is clear after the race, of course, but sadly we have to decide before (or for the very brave, during) the action. The selection here is reliant on a decent pace, in which case his superior time figures can come into play.

17:30 5:30 Southwell

Lightning Touch

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Latest three runs over 12f, so the drop back to 11f may help. This track may also suit better than Newcastle, and time figures suggest a big run today.

17:15 5:15 Chelmsford City

Miss Ayala

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Made all here two back, but next time at Wolves she got eyeballed over half a mile out and, as is often the case, both horses soon faded out of contention. Hector gets on Woody Y Fernandez for the first time and he looks the most likely danger.

17:00 5:00 Southwell

Cool Molly

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Another 2yo from a yard likely to produce a much better animal on second run. Of those to have run, apart from the favourite, all are dropping back in trip. The selection is also dropping in class.

16:45 4:45 Chelmsford City

Paranjape

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

The favorite looks worthy but short in the market. Worth a chance on the Woods Runner, which was 80/1 on debut but a lot more fancied today.

16:30 4:30 Southwell

Big Shot Veto

Daily Racing

25 EW

@SP

Lose

-50

The fav is very short in a dark field and the second favourite, Big Shot Veto has time and weight rates to compare. Stable and rider both in good recent form.

Phantom Shadow

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@51.00

Lose

-50

He was completely clueless on debut but the stable has historically been able to turn a 2yo around in a big way between first and second run. No encouragement in the early market but sure to do better today.

16:25 4:25 Bath

Rajeteriat

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Win

140

The ground is a bit of an unknown but comes from one of the few stables in form lately and the rider has had a good few weeks having rediscovered some of the form that made her a hot property in the first place.

Sub Thirteen

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@SP

Lose

-50

The stable and rider are on for a treble and it looks very much on the cards with only a four point increase for the recent win.

15:38 3:38 Newcastle

Half Shot

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

None of the stables are in blinding form but the Jardine yard has been going reasonably well. The erstwhile champ is booked and the horse is back below winning mark.

15:30 3:30 Thurles

Carried With Love

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

The yard's jumpers have hit form and this one looks like a backable favourite with top weight and top rate in those terms.

14:30 2:30 Thurles

The Striker Dylan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

A recent winner, and he looks the percentage shot with competitive ratings in terms of time, going, and distance. Recent winning form is in short supply here.

14:17 2:17 Stratford

Next Twist

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Close on ratings with Quaviste, so it may come down to the riders. Whilst Skelton is much improved, he has to be second fav when head to head with the Champ.

14:08 2:08 Newcastle

Gemini Man

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

The quicker ground will suit and Danny gets back on board today after winning on him at Hexham. Top weight and top rate and can resume the winning thread for the in-form yard.

28 October 2025

16:10 4:10 Catterick

Beerwah

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

The rider knows him well and the 6f here should be ideal on the ground he prefers. Only carrying one pound more than when last successful and has a viable draw.

14:40 2:40 Catterick

Ahamoment

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.50

Lose

-50

Drawn wide and didn't get to the front here latest. Two easy wins prior in Scotland and a good draw today. The astute young rider will take advantage of the draw, the softer ground will suit and he can make all.

27 October 2025

20:30 8:30 Wolverhampton

Dubai Magic

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

She is not obvious but not without hope, now dropped to her lowest mark. Now off 60 and can turn around the fortunes of the promising rider.

20:00 8:00 Wolverhampton

Al Rufaa

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-50

He has tumbled a long way down the weights due to many defeats in higher class. Now dropped into a C5 and will be a live chance for the wily trainers.

19:45 7:45 Newcastle

Jachin

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.50

Lose

-50

Sole C&D winner and has won a C6 here in September. No joy on the turf after that but will be ready to go close now back on the favoured surface.

26 October 2025

15:15 3:15 Fontwell

Little Ledgend

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

Claimer ridden when down the course on his hurdles debut at Chepstow. The champ gets on board today and the track and longer trip may suit better.

14:40 2:40 Fontwell

Golden Circet

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@19.00

Lose

-50

The ground may be a worry but the champ is booked and he has plenty of winning form on the flat turf. Sure to be fit after a decent effort earlier this month on the sand.

14:20 2:20 Aintree

In The Age

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.50

Lose

-50

The stable has started in hot form and there will be a big effort towards the trainers' championship. Two decent efforts at Southwell in bumpers and now goes 4f further for hurdles debut which should suit.

25 October 2025

15:10 3:10 Newbury

Stellar Sunrise

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

Lots of potential for the nap today and the first two have been well beaten. The stable has had a stellar year and may well be No. 1 next year. The rider has also been enjoying an Indian Summer and this one is top on the clock and very consistent.

24 October 2025

19:15 7:15 Dundalk

West Acre

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.00

Lose

-50

A Group 2 winner on turf and has sand form at a lower level when learning the game. The astute young trainer seems to have found an ideal race and one of Irelands finest booked to ride.

16:10 4:10 Cheltenham

Don Virginia

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

A model of consistency and can hopefully continue on the upward curve. Rider knows him well and there was plenty of support this morning.

23 October 2025

19:00 7:00 Southwell

Counting Cards

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Hot fav for his handicap debut. That looks significant as the horse has not run for 399 days! The yard has enjoyed a great season and the laconic rider has also edged up the ratings.

18:00 6:00 Southwell

Al Durry

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Win

112

Two promising runs and did much better last time at Chelmsford and that track suited much better. This track should also suit and she figures to go close despite the slightly better class of race.

17:00 5:00 Southwell

Fiery Damsel

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@3.00

Win

100

Good claimer engaged and has the perfect draw. The sole winner in the field and is dropping back down in class after success in a C4.

16:50 4:50 Fontwell

Kopa Kilana

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.33

Lose

-50

Hopefully Cobden and Bowen have been passed fit after the melee in the earlier race. This one is having his fifth run for the trainer and may well have improved for the change of scene.

16:45 4:45 Chelmsford City

Zoiros

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.50

Lose

-50

A tight price on the face of it. He bumped into a couple of nice ones on his latest two starts and hasn't done much wrong. This track will be his first run around a bend and it may well suit.

22 October 2025

20:10 8:10 Kempton

King Of Ithaca

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

The rider continues his meteoric rise and has been a clear second this year behind the champ. This one is a couple of points above latest winning mark and can give the weight from a reasonable draw.

14:23 2:23 Newmarket

Major Neigh Sayer

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Win

275

The young trainer has had a good year and still on the upward curve. This one has run two nice races and looks ready to step up now going over a longer trip.

14:00 2:00 Worcester

Glancing Jack

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

A long time off the track but he won his only start at Hereford at 25/1 and was an easy winner. A dark field but posted a reasonable figure and can follow up.

18 October 2025

16:40 4:40 Ascot

Bobby Bennu

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Closely rated with the main selection on timelines, and the step up to 1m is not certain to suit. If he stays or even improves for the trip, he should be in the shake-up.

Shout

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Well to the fore on timelines, and the draw does not look like a significant factor on the straight course today. Champ is booked, and this looks like one of his better chances.

16:05 4:05 Ascot

Calandagan

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.20

Win

110

According to official ratings, only four can win. The market has just three, and my figures have just one. Calandagan has the beating of all of these, but he is not a straightforward ride. Hopefully, the rider knows him well enough to adapt to however the race is run. Previously, he has used his power up in the wrong part of the race. His latest two wins, though, especially at Ascot, have shown that a world-class rider is very much needed. Sure to be held up and hopefully produced late in the piece.

Economics

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Behind the main selection in this race last year, and that was just the start of his problems. Now off the track for a year, he is reportedly fit and well, but the ground may be too fast for him. If allowed to run, I would still expect him to be in the shake-up based on his class alone.

15:25 3:25 Ascot

Dancing Gemini

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

The apple of his trainer's eye and has had a few of these behind at various points in his career. A win does look a remote chance but he has plenty of form in the book to validate a placed effort.

Fallen Angel

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

There are a few doubts around at the front of the market. There is no doubt about this filly being in the form of her life with three consecutive G1 wins in the last three months.

14:45 2:45 Ascot

Kalpana

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Win

Sometimes it is best not to overlook the obvious. She is a proven G1 winner, a C&D winner and goes on any ground. It would be good for Colin Keane to grab a couple of winners on the big day to cement his promotion.

Quisisana

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Win

Another proven Group 1 winner and the trainer has had an exceptional season. The ground may be a slight concern for all those with easier ground preferences today but, when push comes to shove, the best ones can deliver on any ground.

14:05 2:05 Ascot

Flora Of Bermuda

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

She flopped in the July Cup but her run here in the summer was a good one and at this time of year the fillies must be respected in all races.

Lazzat

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.00

Lose

-50

There can hardly be a sprint champ this year, given the various winners of the key races. Another live chance for Doyle and goes on any ground.

13:30 1:30 Ascot

Division

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

The stage is set for a massive day for James Doyle and Wathnan. This is the first of a few live chances and the prep run last week went very smoothly and he will be spot-on for today.

Mission Central

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Win

180

Sole O'Brien is a runner in the race and the clock says he has a very good chance and should go close at least. Already gelded, he may be able to settle in front.

12:55 12:55 Ascot

Saratoga

Daily Racing

25 EW

@SP

Lose

-50

He may be there to set the pace but sometimes the pacemaker can hold on and win, rarely, but it has happened this season.

Sweet William

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

The fav looks like one of the day's bankers, but Sweet William finished in front of him behind Kyprios last year. It is a horse race at the end of the day, and stranger things have happened.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

david37

david37's Tips History

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