sharpsportstips01

The Value Play: The +7.0 spread gives us three winning scenarios: Nuggets win outright (40%), close Thunder win by 1 to 7 points (35%), or we need Thunder to win by 8+ (25%). That's 75% win probability at near even money. Key Matchup Factors: Thunder's injury issues are critical here. Alex Caruso (out) and Jalen Williams (questionable) are their best perimeter defenders - exactly who you need to slow down Joki? in Denver. Without them OKC's defensive scheme falls apart. Meanwhile, Denver is rolling: 122 points Saturday, two days rest, and at a home where altitude is a weapon late The Market Tell: Thunder are 37-10 with the NBA's best record, yet bookies only make them 7-point favourites on the road? The market is telling us this game is close. We're getting value on the home side with a cushion.