brooking

4 out of the last 6 games were under 60 points head to head. Sale is without the Currys but otherwise very strong. Saracens are at full strength. I can see a tight encounter if Saracens don't start with a flurry of tries. Under 59 is too high - I had it at 52.5. I thought Saracens were poor against Quins last week, not having a plan against Quins' kicking game (a game which I lost on as I thought Quins would run it a lot more).

Both teams have a ton of injuries, but Bristol's are in more crucial areas - half-backs, plus Ellis Genge is out. Gloucester is 0-3 so far but should have enough against Bristol, who are going backwards after starting 2-0.

Smith returning for Quins is a big fillip for the points. Quins only play one way with Smith at 10 at home, and Saracens are scoring lots of points - 34, 39, 50 in the last 3 games. 60 is a lot, and Quins are 12/32 over 59 points in the last year, but this has to be an open game.