JackMercer

Ilia Topuria is the best fighter currently fighting at 155 lbs. He has incredible boxing, with lethal power and excellent timing, along with elite grappling. All of it is underpinned by supreme physicality, top fight IQ, and finishing instinct. His only real weakness is a tendency to occasionally leave his chin open when he's letting his hands loose. Charles Oliveira is a great fighter and will beat most fighters at lightweight, but he always gets hit. When Topuria hits Oliveira, and when he connects flush, it will be something Oliveira needs to wake up from.

Ilia's power is too much and his boxing is too slick. He will step in, bridge the gap, and land flush on Oliveira's chin. I expect it will be an early KO, and Topuria will probably be proven right, after he said he would KO Oliveira in the first round. But even if it goes longer than the first round, Topuria will still find that KO.

For the 125 lb division, Alexandre Pantoja has the following attributes to an extreme degree: grappling ability, submission ability, chin, strength, fight IQ, and heart. Once he gets an opponent to the floor, that opponent is at his mercy. He also has nice kicks, and wild, powerful punches. Kai Kara-France has more power in his strikes, though - he's the biggest puncher in the division. But the gulf in the grappling will prove the difference maker. Kara-France does pose a knockout danger, but Pantoja's chin, skill, and guts will combine to keep him from getting put out. Pantoja might dog it out for a bloody decision, and Kara-France does have great takedown defence, but I suspect Pantoja will finish it on the ground.

Pantoja is an exceptional grappler and submission artist. Kara-France has great takedown defence, but it won't hold up for the entire fight. Pantoja will get him down to the mat, and from there I think Pantoja will successfully lock in a rear naked choke.

Gregory Rodrigues has big power and is not scared to track his opponent down to trade. Jack Hermansson is a very clever fighter and he can use space well. He's also got great cardio. If this fight were 5 rounds instead of 3, Hermansson would have a much better chance - he could fight from outside and keep moving, could lose the first 2 rounds, win the last 3, and win a decision. But here, Rodrigues will be able to land enough strikes to win a decision, even if Hermansson does pick up the third round. A knockout isn't out of the question, thanks to Rodrigues' power, but it's just as likely that Hermansson is smart enough to avoid the biggest shots, and Rodrigues does win on the scorecards.

If McKinney wins this fight, I expect he wins it in the first round, either by KO or submission. Incidentally, this card looks to have a higher than usual amount of finishes, and first-round finishes. I expect that's because a lot of decision-merchants have been fighting recently, with the Fight Nights being the place decisioners get fobbed off to, and this pay-per-view is being sold off the back of finishing potential. If there are multiple finishes on the prelims, people will be more convinced to buy the actual PPV. In this fight, Borshchev is a strong striker but has terrible grappling/ground ability. McKinney is so explosive in the first round and has the ability to get Borshchev down and out either through strikes or a submission. But McKinney is a very tricky fighter to back because he's chinny and makes silly mistakes. Win or lose, his fights always finish. So it's a small bet, even though I do expect a first-round finish from McKinney.

Jhonata Diniz really should win this. He's a huge, thick, ex-kickboxing striker who keeps his chin tucked and (generally) has patience. Alvin Hines is making his debut, and looks to have significantly poorer timing and reaction speed to Diniz. And Diniz isn't some quick guy. I believe Diniz will prove to be the better fighter. If Hines can't help but find himself going second on the regional scene, he'll find himself second against Diniz. And Diniz is no regional heavyweight jobber. He's got some actual quality.