GoalJedi
A brief summary of my tipping philosophy, hmm, on my tipster profile page, it may appear. In the site and the app, strong with the Force, my insights and tips shall be. Passionate, I am, about sharing wisdom with fellow sports lovers, hmm. Deep analysis and statistics, the pillars of my tipping philosophy are. Informed decisions, based on thorough research, I seek to make. I believe in the power of data-driven predictions, hmm. I aim to find value in the betting markets. Happy betting, hmm!
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GoalJedi's Tips History
12 September 2025
23:52 23:52 Colonial Downs
Raptors
Daily Racing
Stalks the likely speed, owns the best local profile (1st + neck 2nd here this meet), and keeps Sanchez. The mile suits his tactical kick and today's class level. With dry turf forecast, he's the most reliable A-side.
22:14 22:14 Belmont At The Big A
Right To Win
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Brown's Grey is peaking: back-to-back wins at today's trip range, tactical enough for a rail-12ft outer-turf sit, and partnered again by Franco. He projects the best late punch and offers better value than short-priced Enlighten.
21:54 21:54 Churchill Downs
Harrodsburg
Daily Racing
Churchill specialist with blistering recent 6f times, tactical speed, and proven 6.5f stamina. Draw suits a stalking trip behind the burners, and his May/June Louisville efforts tower over these. If he runs to those figures on a fast track, he's the one.
21:42 21:42 Belmont At The Big A
Iron Max
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Progressive 3yo peaking at today's trip, versatile running style, and Prat/Cox clicking. With rails at 9 ft and firm ground, a tactical mid-pack sit should set up his late punch. If Senegal's out, his path only gets cleaner.
21:09 21:09 Belmont At The Big A
Aggregation
Daily Racing
Second-up Brown runner drawn to stalk and pounce, with the race's best mile resume and proven Big A figures. The pace looks honest, suiting his box-seat style. If he runs to his Saratoga return, he simply outclasses these late.
20:50 20:50 Churchill Downs
Papa Ken
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Class Edge and proven Churchill speed: debut win here, then third in the Ellis Park Juvenile. Today's cutback to 6f with Gaffalione stalking a hot pace suits perfectly on a fast, speed-friendly track. He's the most reliable profile to finish the job.
20:37 20:37 Belmont At The Big A
Sounds Like A Plan
Daily Racing
Top last-out figure at the trip, ideal stalking style for a fair 12-ft rail, and he just missed in a fast Saratoga allowance. With tactical speed and a stronger stretch kick than his main rivals, he's the most likely winner today.
19:35 19:35 Belmont At The Big A
Dreamlike
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Second-up, class edge, and a 2-lb weight swing off the recent narrow defeat set up a stalking, one-turn-mile trip under Prat. With honest pace from the rail, Dreamlike gets first run and should assert late.
18:00 Francesca Jones vs Solana Sierra
Solana Sierra
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-50
Sierra's pathway in São Paulo has been controlled tennis built on first-ball dominance: she dropped just seven games in R2 and posted a 90% first-serve points-won clip in her opener, precisely the profile that travels in cooler, dry evening conditions at moderate altitude. Jones arrives on a solid season (42-15) but needed volume: three sets vs. Glushko and a tiebreak to fend off Osuigwe, indicating longer rallies and more pressure moments on serve. With Sierra's 2025 upside (Wimbledon 4R, Rafa Nadal Academy base) and the matchup tilting toward first-strike aggression, the market's slight lean to Jones creates a classic value side on Sierra. Note their only prior H2H was a 2023 Guayaquil walkover??"no on-court sample to contradict the stylistic read.
18:00 Janice Tjen vs Alexandra Eala
Alexandra Eala
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.75
Lose
-50
Both are in breakout form, but the stylistic tilt favors Eala. The Filipina brings one of the stronger return profiles in this tier (47.5% BP conversion; 42% return games won), which is exactly the tool you want against a newcomer who holds well but struggles to break (Tjen's return games won: 17.4%). In São Paulo, Eala has been efficient and decisive through two rounds, extending a seven-match streak that includes a title the week before??"confidence plus reps, with no visible physical issues. Tjen's serve and slice are effective, yet recent tape shows that pace and early ball-taking can rush that backhand (see her US Open loss); Eala's lefty forehand into the deuce-court lane and willingness to step in should repeatedly draw short replies. With Eala seeded No. 3 on her preferred surface and the market only marginally shading her, the numbers and matchup point to Eala simply winning as the smartest, high-probability value.
01:26 01:26 Churchill Downs
Show Time
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Win
112
Second-up specialist with three wins at that stage, fresh off a neck second at Saratoga, and 3-for-4 at Churchill. Hot pace sets up a stalk-and-pounce ride for Irad. Dropping into claiming tilts the class edge firmly his way.
Subtotal90
11 September 2025
23:59 23:59 Churchill Downs
Money Supply
Daily Racing
Class drop, ideal rail trip, and Irad's aggressive placement make Money Supply the right gamble. He's a proven 1 1/16-mile winner with Churchill know-how and should stalk a fair pace, tip out, and pounce before the deep closers unwind.
21:10 21:10 Belmont At The Big A
Gallant Greta
Daily Racing
Drawn 1 for the trip, she brings a fresh, decisive Spa win at the distance, a tactical style to exploit a fair pace and the 9-ft rail, plus Prats' hands. Proven at 1m 1/16 and still improving, she's the right favorite to beat.
20:10 20:10 Belmont At The Big A
Typhoon Fury
Daily Racing
Plenty of pace should tee this up for Typhoon Fury's proven 6f/BAQ kick. He's rock-solid at the trip and brings consistent figures, while key rivals are speed-dependent or stretching back to 6f. Set-up plus course affinity make him the one to beat.
19:10 19:10 Belmont At The Big A
Collect The Data
Daily Racing
Explosive last-out 7-length Saratoga win in 1:09.95 screams class, and prior Aqueduct 6 1/2f win fits this exact trip. With an honest pace from Army Gal, her stalking style should prove decisive. Form, setup and barn all point to #4.
12:00 Nuria Brancaccio vs Mona Barthel
Nuria Brancaccio
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
This is a value side because Brancaccio's clay patterns better fit today's conditions and Barthel's recent pressure metrics. Brancaccio generated 17 break points and converted 9 in her opening win, a classic indicator of reliable return depth on clay. Barthel battled for 2h43m against Ipek Oz and, while landing a solid first serve, converted just 4/18 break chances and won 50% of her second-serve points??"numbers that can dip further on slower, humid clay. With thunderstorms possible in Ljubljana, the ball should stay heavier, blunting Barthel's first-strike game and favoring longer exchanges where Brancaccio thrives. Add in seeding (No.7) and a modest market lean toward her this morning, and the moneyline remains the cleanest exposure with a strong hit rate profile.
12:00 Teodora Kostovic vs Oleksandra Oliynykova
Oleksandra Oliynykova
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.62
Win
31
One week ago on the same surface, Oliynykova beat Kostovic comfortably in Montreux (6-2, 6-3), breaking four times while saving all five break points. Clear evidence of a match-up edge on clay. In Ljubljana, she reinforced her form by dismissing No.3 seed Zidanek 6-3, 6-1 in just 65 minutes, suggesting she arrived sharp and physically fine after the Montreux run. Kostovic is having a good week, but she's coming through qualies and a three-setter in R32. More court time and a quicker turnaround than Oliynykova. Morning moisture and a cooler start should keep the clay on the slower side early, which tends to reward the stronger returner and longer-rally tolerance areas where Oliynykova just won this specific head-to-head battle decisively. The market also rates her as the rightful favorite for this R16, aligning with the on-court data.
09:00 Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Hanne Vandewinkel
Hanne Vandewinkel
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
She's the higher-rated, in-form player, just came through a gritty three-setter over qualifier Kumov, and is the No. 6 seed here while Sobolieva advanced past local WC Novak. On clay this week, Vandewinkel's heavier baseline game and more reliable weight of shot should tell over time, and my numbers land her around 64-66%, meaning there's a small but clear edge versus a market that prices this closer to a coin flip. The match is scheduled on outdoor red clay in Ljubljana (Court 3, ~10:00 CEST), conditions that reward Vandewinkel's consistency and rally tolerance.
Subtotal-129
10 September 2025
12:30 Vuelta a Espana 2025 Stage 17
Joao Almeida
Win Outright
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Almeida sits 48s down and must light the fuse on Morredero's steep, irregular ramps. UAE can seed satellites up the road (Soler/Vine/Ayuso) to slingshot him, while Vingegaard likely rides red-jersey defense rather than go full berserker. Cue a late Portuguese surge for the stage and precious seconds.
Subtotal-50
09 September 2025
17:00 Cape Verde v Cameroon
Draw
This sets up like a classic qualifying stalemate. Cape Verde need control more than chaos; theyve conceded 5 in 7 group games and just blanked Mauritius away, suggesting theyll compress space and protect first place. Cameroon arrive with the groups best goal difference and a deep attack, yet Brys side has also thrived in game control4 clean sheets in their last seven qualifiersso they wont overextend early in Praia. With the market firmly shading Under 2.5, marginal scoring events plus conservative incentives increase draw equity. Add travel into humid Praia and five-day turnarounds for both, and the tempo projects moderate at best. Cameroons 41 win in 2024 came in Yaound; away, with Cape Verde incentivized to slow the game and take a point, parity is the logical outcomeand the price on the draw remains the most attractive of the primary markets.
17:00 Togo v Sudan
Draw
Togo need their first win, but recent evidence suggests a stalemate is likelier than a breakthrough. The last two meetings finished 1-1, including at Stade de Kégué, and neither side has shown enough cutting edge lately to flip that pattern decisively. Togo enter at 0-4-3 in the group and struggled away to Mauritania on Friday. The attack often runs through Denkey in isolation phases, producing long quiet stretches. Sudan, despite losing 2-0 to Senegal, have been defensively organized across qualifying and remain third, well-positioned to protect a point if the game stalls.
14:00 Tanzania v Niger
Tanzania
Tanzania have become experts in control and compression. Their last five WCQ outings include clean sheets against CAR and Mauritania and a late away equalizer in Brazzaville (1-1), signaling resilience rather than volatility. Niger arrive off a draining Rabat trip and a 5-0 defeat to Morocco in which forward Abdoul-Latif Goumey saw red. He's set to miss this match, reducing their already modest scoring threat.
13:15 Sri Lanka v Maldives
Maldives
Maldives tick more of the recent-form boxes, and the tactical picture suits them. In the first leg (also in Colombo), Shiyaz's side pressed selectively, then punished space with quick outlets. Naiz Hassan, Ibrahim Mahudhee, and Ali Fasir all scored in a controlled 3-0 win. The tape and live stats point to Sri Lanka's attack fading after the break while conceding clean looks in transition, which is exactly what they'll invite again today as they must chase the tie. With Faisal back in goal and a clear new-manager bounce, Maldives' defensive floor has risen, while their front line has the pace edge. H2H and local reporting frame this as a psychologically uphill fight for Sri Lanka, and despite that, pricing remains mixed??"some models still shade the hosts. That disconnect is our edge: the most likely winner remains Maldives, and we're getting a better price than their true probability implies.
Subtotal-200
08 September 2025
20:00 Julia Riera vs Vitalia Diatchenko
Julia Riera
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.73
Win
37
Riera has the cleaner hard-court body of work this season and a serve/return balance that should translate on São Paulo's outdoor hard. She's 3-2 on the surface in 2023, producing meaningful ace output, while Diatchenko comes in light on outdoor-hard reps (0-1) and has shown volatility behind serve when stretching to full matches after stop-start seasons. In mild, low-wind conditions, those second-serve and double-fault gaps become magnified, especially in pressure games. Models only give Riera a mid-50s win chance, but market prices already respect Diatchenko's name recognition; my read is that recency and surface-specific data favor Riera more than the consensus implies. With the match slated on Quadra 1 and no adverse weather expected, Riera's more reliable hard-court form makes her moneyline the most straightforward, high-confidence angle.
19:45 Gibraltar v Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Faroes are superior but not explosive, and their qualifiers have been tight: four straight one-goal losses to stronger sides (Croatia, Montenegro, Czechia) plus a 2-1 win over Gibraltar. That profile screams win with a low total. Gibraltar's attack is the worst in the group and trending down, just 2 goals in 5 (17 conceded), including a 0-7 and 0-4 at home in this cycle. In June's H2H, Faroes out-shot them 22-5 and conceded only one shot on target, suggesting repeat territorial control even away.
19:45 Kosovo v Sweden
Sweden
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Sweden arrive with superior shot quality and control metrics: they posted 1.22 xG and 60% possession in Ljubljana, creating the better chances despite a late 22 sting. Kosovo, by contrast, must reorganize after losing captain Amir Rrahmani and shipping four in Basel with just 0.49 xG going the other way, signs of both defensive instability and limited chance creation. Tomasson's Sweden carry multiple goal sources (Gyokeres, Elanga, Ayari) and can add Isak off the bench if required, while Robin Olsen remains in goal following public backing.
17:00 Uganda v Somalia
Uganda & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Uganda's defensive platform under Paul Put looks stable: four clean sheets in five, only 0.6 GA recently, and the same core XI expected after dismantling Mozambique 4-0. The return of Omedi adds depth to a frontline already producing through Okello and Mato, while there are no fresh injuries reported. Somalia's attack is the group's weakest: four scoreless outings in their last five and a 0-3 defeat to Guinea right here in Kampala underline limited threat creation. With Uganda still fighting for the playoff route and Somalia eliminated, the intensity gap should be tangible. Market consensus aligns: home win and BTTS: No are strongly favored across books, and win to nil captures that edge better than a short 1x2. With home support at Namboole and mild evening conditions, the clean-sheet win profile fits both form and context.
Subtotal37
06 September 2025
23:21 23:21 Kentucky Downs
Grand Sonata
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Course-and-distance specialist with last year's Turf Cup on the resume and the chance to join the select group of repeat winners. Mid draw (6) and a stalking style fit Kentucky Downs' firm turf, where balance and rhythm matter. Comes here off a strong G1 second to Fort Washington in the Arlington Million and now returns to his best trip. Jockey/Trainer in form (Gaffalione ~18% and Pletcher ~21% last 12 months).
22:46 22:46 Kentucky Downs
Chasing Liberty
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
Course-and-distance winner at Kentucky Downs from last year, drawn 6 for a sweet trip. His blend of 1-mile stamina and 5f speed says 6f is the bullseye, and recent stakes form (including a close Ellis Park third) keeps him right on the boil. Firm turf confirmed and the temporary rail at 25 ft reward handy runners; he owns the tactical pace to sit just off the heat and finish strongest.
22:11 22:11 Kentucky Downs
Kilwin
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
Course-and-distance winner with the joint-top rating (110), back to turf off her G1 Test triumph. Firm Kentucky Downs and a middle draw (9) suit a stalking ride. Pace from Shisospicy, Abientot, and Gata Brazil sets a strong tempo, and the rail out 25 ft keeps things fair.
21:35 21:35 Kentucky Downs
New Century
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Top-rated on official marks (115) and now drops from G1 tests at 910f to a firm-turf mile that fits his best work. First-time blinkers add focus, and Irad Ortiz Jr. is booked from a handy draw 7. His Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 4th and American Turf 3rd highlight class. The cutback plus today's going tick key boxes.
20:59 20:59 Kentucky Downs
Brilliant Berti
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Freshened after a decisive G2 Wise Dan win and purpose-targeted for this mile. Proven at Kentucky Downs (track/trip winner) and on firm turf, he stalks a strong pace set by Goliad/Air Recruit/Epic Ride and pounces late. Draw 7 is spot-on for a handy sit into the sweeping turn. Recent figures match the top of this field, and the Devaux/Hernandez combo has him peaking third run of the campaign. Market leans elsewhere, leaving a clear value edge on his win chance.
20:30 Estoril v Santa Clara
Estoril
50 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-50
20:24 20:24 Kentucky Downs
Miwa
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Explosive course-and-distance winner here last week, powering clear by 7L over 2112m with Jose Ortiz. Proof she handles Kentucky Downs' unique layout and the trip. She maps to sit just behind Stellify/No Mo Candy, then use that sharp turn of foot up the rising stretch. Progressive profile, fresh for a quick return, and her recent figure and visual authority put her right on the required class line. With proven KD form and a handy draw, the market underrates her chance today.
20:00 Malaga v Granada
Malaga
50 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-50
Form and data point one way. Malaga are unbeaten and compact: just 1 goal conceded in three league matches, with clean, low-event wins vs Real Sociedad B and at Las Palmas. Granada, by contrast, have three defeats, defensive errors, and match-tilting cards; last weeks loss featured another sending off and jeers for key starters. The expected XI news favors Malagas continuity (Rodriguez, Larrubia, Juanpe/Izan), while Granada still juggle combinations and miss suspended RB/CB cover (Haro).
19:45 Rep of Ireland v Hungary
Rep of Ireland & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@3.80
Lose
-50
Ireland arrive unbeaten in five (6-3 aggregate) and, crucially, with a front three of Ferguson, Szmodics, and Azaz that upgrades their final-third craft without sacrificing defensive structure (Cullen, Knight screen). The late team news confirms that setup, while Doherty and Manning add crossing threat against a Hungary side that's conceded 9 in their last 5 and has struggled away from home through the past year. Expect Marco Rossi's men to sit in and hunt moments for Szoboszlai and Varga, but the coach himself flagged a game decided by a single episode, which aligns with a narrow home win profile. Markets have Ireland only slight favorites and lean strongly to low totals/BTTS No, so coupling home win with BTTS No captures the realistic 1-0 or 2-0 lanes that Ireland have repeatedly produced at the Aviva in tight qualifiers. Weather (17-18C, showers, breeze) further tilts toward suppressed shot conversion for the visitors. Net: Ireland edge it, and keep the clean sheet.
19:13 19:13 Kentucky Downs
Love Cervere
Daily Racing
Class filly with the field-high rating (102) and this 6f trip right in her wheelhouse. Comes here off a sharp Saratoga 5f third, having already landed the Alywow (6f) and Take The A Train (6f) this prep, so fitness and form are banked. Kentucky Downs is riding firm today, which rewards her stalk-and-pounce style. Draw 9 lets Rosario track the speed of Saturday Flirt and Rich City Girl before striking.
17:30 Bromley v Gillingham
Gillingham (AH) 0.25
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.85
Win+Push
21
Top-of-the-table Gillingham visit third-placed Bromley in a tight contest where the visitors' unbeaten control must blunt the hosts' early surge. Gillingham own 14 points from six, just three conceded and three clean sheets, with a compact 1.14 xG-for profile. Bromley are unbeaten with 12 points, 10 scored, five conceded, three clean sheets, and 1.56 xG. Bromley's edge in recent H2H (3-0 home, 2-1 away) and home buzz inflate the market's Bromley sentiment, yet team news tilts the balance: Dennis out, Jenkinson a doubt, plus multiple absences on international duty, while Gillingham integrate McCleary and John ySmith despite Masterson and Williams missing.
16:07 4:07 Haydock
Jer Batt
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Strong 5f profile and mid draw (6) suit a race stacked with pace from Democracy Dilemma (1) and Luna A Inbhir Nis (9), setting this up for a late pounce. Runner-up in this race last year and arrives off a solid Yarmouth third; back to his optimum trip on Good (good to soft in places). On my figures, he's ~26% to win versus market ~20%, a clear value edge. Tom Marquand keeps the ride; stable intent reads well on the day.
15:45 3:45 Kempton
Leadenhall Street
Daily Racing
Draw 5 grants a handy inner run at Kempton's turning 6f, where low stalls outperform. He's already a C&D winner this summer and owns solid figures (RPR 104/TS 94). Fanshawe's yard is purring and Rossa Ryan arrives in sharp nick. Standard-to-slow suits, and the set-up points to an efficient stalk-and-pounce.
15:35 3:35 Haydock
Time For Sandals
Daily Racing
Commonwealth Cup heroine who stayed on strongly at 5f in the King George; back to 6f on Good ground is ideal. Drawn stall 2 with stalls set centre, she can track the main pace and strike late. Official rating puts her right in the mix, and a solid Timeform pace map points to a true gallop that plays to her finishing kick. I make her around a 22% chance, offering a healthy value edge, and Shoemark arrives in good nick.
15:15 3:15 Ascot
Rogue Millions
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Soft ground and a handy draw make Rogue Millions the play. He already has a soft-ground win over 11f and drops back into handicaps after a tight 1.75L defeat in a Hamilton Listed, with an RPR of 113 that matches the best on show. Drawn 4 and with stalls on the inside, he maps to sit just off the pace set by Topteam/Too Soon. James Owens yard and rider Harry Davies bring solid 14-day figures.
15:10 3:10 Kempton
Super Soldier
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Top on RPR (peak 113) and already mixing it with Group-2 horses, including a neck second in the Robert Papin; that raw speed is the best guide in this line-up. Draw 5 is spot-on with stalls on the inside and a short run to the bend at Kempton, which rewards handy types on Polytrack. Today's going is Standard to Slow and weather is simply cloudy, no negatives. Jockey Sam James is humming (5 wins/21 rides last 14 days) and Burke's yard is ticking over. Value against the fav.
15:00 3:00 Haydock
Caballo De Mar
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Progressive stayer with the best recent figures: Ascot Copper Horse second earned RPR 113/TS 105, and he already scored over 2m here in May. He's proven on good ground, owns both course and distance badges, and a middle draw (12) looks fine with stalls set inside. Trainer/jockey are operating at steady last-100 strike rates, and I price him ~22% in this 17-runner field. Enough edge over the current market to play win-only.
15:00 Bolton v AFC Wimbledon
Bolton (AH) -1.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.90
Win
45
Bolton must turn sustained chance superiority into a statement home win against a Wimbledon side leaking chances and confidence. The hosts top League One for xG For (1.80) and own the best xGA (0.70), with home splits of 1.86/0.63, while the Dons come off four defeats in five and 10 conceded across their last three. Wimbledon's away profile is blunt (0.89 xGF, 1.37 xGA) and they average just six shots per game to Bolton's 17.17; sustained pressure shows in 6.71 home corners. H2H leans Bolton: a 4-0 at this ground and no defeats in six. With Dalby back to front the line, the performance gap screams margin.
15:00 Cambridge Utd v Oldham
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
Cambridge must turn strong home momentum into a controlled game, while Oldham sit compact and scratch for moments. The hosts are 2-1-0 at Cledara Abbey, averaging 1.42 xG and just 0.90 xGA, with two clean sheets in six. Oldham arrive winless in six and on a 10-match drought overall, scoring only three league goals; leading striker Joe Quigley is suspended and Michael Mellon is on U21 duty, trimming their punch. Oldham's away slate reads three draws from three, but includes a 0-0 at Bristol Rovers that underlines their blunt edge. Recent H2H noise fades next to these trendlines. Expect one-way traffic without mutual scoring.
15:00 Cheltenham v Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley (AH) 0.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Cheltenham must halt a nosedive at home, but Accrington arrive set to suffocate and pinch territory. The hosts are 0W-1D-5L across six, with a division-worst two goals scored and 12 conceded, and remain winless in three at this ground. Suspension for Scot Bennett further unsettles an already fragile spine. Accrington's last five show 0W-3D-2L, yet the process is steadier: only six conceded, consecutive away draws (Shrewsbury 0-0, Grimsby 1-1), and Tyler Walton offering end product with three in four. In a low-margin scrap, Accrington's compact shape and Cheltenham's blunt edge point to the visitors avoiding defeat.
15:00 Colchester v Crewe
Crewe (AH) 0.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.92
Push
0
Colchester must arrest a flat home start while Crewe arrive with away punch and cleaner edges in both boxes. The hosts are 0W-1D-2L at JobServe, 6 scored/7 conceded, xG 1.30 vs xGA 1.46, just one clean sheet. Recent league run reads 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-0. Crewe's trendline is sturdier: 4 wins from 6, 10 scored/6 conceded, xG 1.58, and two away wins already, including 4-1 at Fleetwood and a 3-0 last time. Head-to-head has been draw-heavy (0-0, 0-0, 1-1), which limits downside yet doesn't mask the form gap and shot-volume edge (13.83 vs 11.17). With Colchester's conversion lagging and Crewe's balance travelling well, the smart angle backs the visitors on zero line.
15:00 Doncaster v Bradford
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
High-stakes Yorkshire derby with both unbeaten paths on the line. Territory and transitions will dominate as Doncaster's disciplined 4-2-3-1 meets Bradford's compact 3-5-2. Doncaster averages 1.0 scored and 0.67 conceded per league game and has strung together a 10-match home unbeaten run, built on clean sheets and control. Bradford sits 3rd with 10:6 goals from six, yet away results have come via narrow margins (3-2, 1-1, 2-1) and a pragmatic structure. H2H trends are muted at 2.2 goals on average. Doncaster's creative depth is thinned (Gotts, Sterry out; Molyneux doubtful), further compressing chance volume. Everything funnels toward a tight contest decided by fine details.
15:00 Harrogate Town v Crawley Town
Harrogate Town (AH) 0.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.98
Lose
-50
Harrogate must turn home advantage into control against a Crawley side short at wing-back and leaking goals. The hosts bring steadier metrics: 2W-2D-2L with two clean sheets and 7 scored/8 conceded in six, versus Crawley's 0W-2D-4L, only 4 scored, 11 conceded, and zero shutouts. Wetherby Road has already delivered a win and a draw, while Crawley are still winless away. Forster's injury and Pereira's continued absence blunt the visitors' width, exposing a defense under strain; Harrogate's flexible 4-4-2/3-4-1-2 can press those channels. Historical H2H tilts to Crawley, but present form and squad status swing the balance toward the hosts while limiting draw risk.
15:00 Huddersfield v Peterborough
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Peterborough must scrap for their first win, but travel to a Huddersfield side perfect at home and eager to reset after Barnsley. The Terriers posted back-to-back Kirklees clean sheets (2-0 Doncaster, 1-0 Stevenage) and average 12.5 shots. Bottom-placed Posh have 1 point, three away defeats, only 2 goals in 6, and failed to score in 67% of matches, while allowing 1.51 xGA and six set-piece goals. New arrivals won't instantly fix a blunt attack, and Huddersfield's strong home control should limit Posh box entries and transition looks. Expect Town on the front foot, Posh contained, and the scoreboard one-way.
15:00 Lincoln City v Wigan
Lincoln City
Lincoln must impose their LNER Stadium momentum on a Wigan side that travels poorly. The Imps are unbeaten at home (2W, 1D) and sit on 11 points from 6, reinforced by clean-sheet cup wins that sharpened their edge. Wigan have 8 points but no away win (0W, 1D, 2L) and are winless in three league games, often relying on late salvages rather than control. Lincoln lose Sonny Bradley to suspension, yet Adam Jackson steps in and Montsma logged minutes midweek. Wigan are without Ollie Cooper and James Carragher on international duty. Home platform plus cleaner recent process outweighs Wigan's threat.
15:00 Milton Keynes Dons v Grimsby
Milton Keynes Dons
50 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-50
MK Dons have this set up to be controlled at Stadium MK: Warnes 3-4-2-1, 60% clean sheets and only three conceded in six league games, with xGA 1.05, point to a home side that shuts space and punishes transitions. Grimsby arrive reshaped in a 5-3-2 and are without Svanthorsson (calf) and Lavelle (knee), with two on four yellows; April's 0-0 between the sides underlines the cagey pattern. The Dons' 10 goals include a 5-0 demolition, but their defensive baseline is the edge, and wind gusts add disruption to deliveries. With both teams level on points, control and margins decide this.
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15:00 Notts County v Fleetwood Town
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
At Meadow Lane, both must attack to climb the table, turning this into a punch-for-punch game. Notts County's six-match slate reads 11 scored, 9 conceded, possession-heavy at 58%, with 0% clean sheets and BTTS hitting in 100% of league outings. Fleetwood arrive with 9 scored, 8 conceded from six, xG 1.40 and a porous 1.81 xGA, plus recent 4-2 and 1-0 results that showcase end-product. The last two meetings finished 2-2, and despite Notts' absences (Jones, Jatta, Kouhyar, Platt, Luker, Robertson), their matches continue to open up, while Fleetwood's revamped attack adds thrust. With the pitch cleared to play, another trade of goals follows.
15:00 Plymouth v Stockport
Stockport (AH) -0.25
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.82
Lose
-50
Home Park tension points one way: Plymouth must stem a slide while Stockport arrive settled and incisive. The hosts have one win in six and ship 2.17 goals per game, with finishing lagging at 0.67 scored despite 1.23 xG. Hazard, MacKenzie, and Amaechi are out, Galloway away, leaving a patched back line. Stockport's league run reads W-W-D-L-W-D, averaging 1.67 scored and 4.33 shots on target, with Norwood driving 1G+2A. Their xGA (1.45) aligns well against Plymouth's limited shot quality. Trophy wins for both change little; league patterns matter. With the visitors' structure and output stronger, take the away side with insurance.
15:00 Port Vale v Leyton Orient
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.70
Lose
-50
Port Vale must halt a grim start at Vale Park while Leyton Orient look to stabilize after back-to-back league losses, so the game shapes as attritional. Vale have 2 goals from 6 (0.33/game), BTTS 33%, two clean sheets, and xG 1.50 against finishing woes. Orient post 1.0 goals/game, concede 1.67, BTTS also 33%, with Connolly set to return and U21 absences noted. The last three H2Hs were 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, and a dry, breezy forecast under Ross Joyce supports a low-event script. Gauci is away but Marosi starts, and Orient's lone away win finished 0-1. Everything compresses towards a tight scoreline and fewer chances.
15:00 Rotherham v Exeter
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
Rotherham must seize the initiative at home, and their 3-5-2, set-piece heavy approach produces chances. Both home games finished 2-1 and 2-2. Defensive fragility persists with centre-backs Agbaire and Raggett out and Holmes not right, part of an 8 conceded in 5 profile (xGA 1.53). Exeter bring punch on the break, 9 goals in 6 off Magennis (3 in 5) with support from Wareham and Niskanen, and arrive on the back of a commanding 3-0 over Peterborough after a clean, organised 1-0 at Wycombe. Rotherham still score at home, Exeter have the tools to answer. Expect nets to ripple both ways.
15:00 Salford City v Tranmere
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.75
Lose
-50
This sets up as a controlled chess match: Salford's home mid-block squeezes space and forces Tranmere into slower build-up, keeping chance quality down. Salford have conceded just 3 across their last five League Two games with two clean sheets, while Tranmere have allowed only 4 in the same span. The recent head-to-head also reads cagey: 0-0 and 2-0 in the last two meetings. Salford's new outlet Dan Udoh adds presence, yet Karl Robinson's side have leaned on structure in a 1-0 and 1-1 heavy start. Tranmere's best away returns are 2-0 and 1-1. The tempo points to a narrow scoreline and a goal line that stays below the standard line.
15:00 Walsall v Chesterfield
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
Chesterfield will force the tempo with their possession 4-2-3-1 after rallying from 0-2 to 2-2 last league outing, while Walsall's compact 3-5-2 looks to extend a strong home edge. The numbers point to trading blows: Chesterfield average 1.83 goals and have scored in every recent game, supported by away xGF 1.46; Walsall's home xGF sits at 1.37 and they've posted a run of 1-0 wins, yet defensive absences (Hancock, Farquharson) raise their xGA risk. Head-to-head trends are lively at Bescot too, with a recent 2-1 home win for Walsall. With Chesterfield's defense conceding 1.33 per match and Walsall failing to score in only a third, the game script screams mutual goals.
15:00 Wycombe v Mansfield
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
Wycombe must snap their slide at Adams Park and will commit bodies forward, while Mansfield's form and direct transitions punch back. The hosts are winless (0W-2D-4L) with 0% clean sheets and BTTS in 67% of matches. They generate 1.45 xG from 12.83 shots and 60% possession yet convert at just 6%. Mansfield bring 11 goals in six (1.83 per match) and three wins in the last four, underpinned by 1.44 xG and 1.10 xGA. Wycombe report no injuries and inject finishing with Woodrow and Sam Bell. Mansfield miss Hendry, Bowery, and McDonnell, with Reed and Cargill restoring balance. Goals from both sides land.
14:40 2:40 Ascot
Telemark
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@15.00
Lose
-50
Soft-ground 7f scorer with strong figures (TS 101/RPR 108) and a handy draw in 5 on Ascot's straight course (stalls stands side). Jockey bang-in-form (Fentiman 3-20, 15% last 14 days) and the Crisfords showing hot-yard numbers (17% last 14 days). Earlier form ties with the favourite and today's softer ground/distance setup plays to his stalking run.
14:25 2:25 Haydock
Pole Star
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Proven at 1m6f and a Haydock specialist, he already won this C&D on 5 July and returns with a handy weight and the inside draw to save ground. His Racing Post ratings stack up well (career RPR top 113) and Johnston's team is operating with a solid last-fortnight RTF figure, while the going is confirmed Good (round course G/S in places) with rails +17y for this race.
14:05 2:05 Kempton
Dragon Icon
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
Weighted to strike after a close C&D third in the qualifier, now dropping markedly from that hefty impost and fitted with first-time cheekpieces. Varians team is humming and Jack Mitchell's 14-day return is strong. From stall 8, he gets options on Kempton's outer mile, with no clear draw bias and a fair, Standard-to-Slow surface.
13:35 1:35 Kempton
Giavellotto
Daily Racing
Group 1 class dropping into a G3, strong 12f profile and unbeaten on the all-weather (2/2), including Kempton. Recent form: Hong Kong Vase win, Dubai Sheema fifth, Coronation Cup third confirms top-tier ability. Barrier 3 keeps him handy in a small field; Oisin Murphy knows him well (8 rides, 3 wins). Kalpana is outstanding but very short; my tissue is ~36% versus market ~29%, so the edge is there. With a 120 rating plus surface/distance ticks, he's the bet.
13:15 1:15 Haydock
Suite Francaise
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Front-running C&D winner last month, she made all in the Dick Hern and now receives a handy 8lb from the older colts as a 3yo filly (8-11 vs 9-5). Draw 7 lets her roll to a controlling spot again and the going is Good (good to soft in places), which suits. Charlie Johnston's yard has been ticking over nicely in recent weeks, and Fanning already executed the on-speed ride on her here.
02:01 02:01 Del Mar
Sammy Davis
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Two-for-two at Del Mar and fresh off a Graduation Stakes win in 57.92, he draws PP1 to control this 5 1/2f on a Fast dirt track. Sadler/Berrios are thriving at the meet (Sadler 19%, Berrios 20%).
01:02 01:02 Del Mar
Wishtheyallcouldbe
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Void
0
Course specialist with 2-from-3 at Del Mar 6f and peak rating in the field (OR 101). Strong form last time behind rapid Formula Rossa; stalks a solid pace from a sweet outside draw, matching this meets outside-friendly bias. Fresu runs at 19% here; Palma solid.
Subtotal-1471
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