MonteCarloRacing
I like to run races through Monte Carlo simulations. I simulate each race 100,000 times. Each simulation uses 72 different variables relative to each horses form and history. This validates if I think the current handicap mark is correct or not. This is basically an automated way of calculating each horses number of simulated wins for this race. The results of the simulation provides me with my own odds. I'll use my own odds to then determine the bets. i.e. VALUE. I then couple that selection with a written description based on ratings. I like to keep things generic and of a set way of writing..
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
MonteCarloRacing's Tips History
23 July 2024
17:00 5:00 Lingfield
Hoornblower
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
Hoornblower relevant recent runs have been in 4.4k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 5.06k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 39 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Hoornblower as running in the 22nd, 22nd, 22nd, 22nd, and 8th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 39 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Hoornblower as having the 1st, 4th, 37th, 17th, and 7th best ratings. I had at a price of 2.37. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best.
16:45 4:45 Ballinrobe
Godblessyourosie
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
Godblessyourosie relevant recent runs have been in 6k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 8.55k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 11 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Godblessyourosie as running in the 10th, and 4th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 11 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Godblessyourosie as having the 3rd, and 7th best ratings. I had at a price of 2.39. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best value pick.
Subtotal-100
21 July 2024
17:37 5:37 Redcar
Bulldog Spirit
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
Bulldog Spirit relevant recent runs have been in 6.33k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 5.16k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 22 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Bulldog Spirit as running in the 2nd, 11th, and 7th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 22 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Bulldog Spirit as having the 7th, 4th, and 6th best ratings. I had at a price of 3.23. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
17:20 5:20 Newton Abbot
Lelant
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-50
Lelant relevant recent runs have been in 5k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.84k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 50 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Lelant as running in the 5th, 10th, 10th, 23rd, and 10th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 50 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Lelant as having the 50th, 20th, 10th, 4th, and 2nd best ratings. I had at a price of 6.77. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
17:10 5:10 Stratford
Ittack Blue
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Ittack Blue relevant recent runs have been in 7.2k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.17k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 45 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Ittack Blue as running in the 6th, 13th, 13th, 6th, and 1st most difficult recent races. Ranking the 45 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Ittack Blue as having the 45th, 2nd, 1st, 11th, and 3rd best ratings. I had at a price of 3.7. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
17:02 5:02 Redcar
Mr Heinz
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Mr Heinz relevant recent runs have been in 3.8k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.2k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 56 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Mr Heinz as running in the 46th, 2nd, 46th, 2nd, and 46th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 56 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Mr Heinz as having the 15th, 26th, 45th, 55th, and 4th best ratings. I had at a price of 7.73. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
16:27 4:27 Redcar
Phoenix Star
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Phoenix Star relevant recent runs have been in 4.6k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.16k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 75 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Phoenix Star as running in the 8th, 8th, 5th, 62nd, and 16th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 75 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Phoenix Star as having the 13th, 22nd, 6th, 1st, and 2nd best ratings. I had at a price of 9.82. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
16:10 4:10 Newton Abbot
Phoenix Risen
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Phoenix Risen relevant recent runs have been in 5.6k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.99k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 37 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Phoenix Risen as running in the 7th, 21st, 15th, 3rd, and 21st most difficult recent races. Ranking the 37 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Phoenix Risen as having the 37th, 10th, 13th, 17th, and 1st best ratings. I had at a price of 7.01. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
15:52 3:52 Redcar
Coppull Hall Lane
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.00 used instead of 2.88 takenBOG
@3.00
Win
100
Coppull Hall Lane relevant recent runs have been in 4.33k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 9.66k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 22 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Coppull Hall Lane as running in the 10th, 14th, and 14th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 22 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Coppull Hall Lane as having the 4th, 5th, and 1st best ratings. I had at a price of 2.37. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. 0.25* Selection.
15:45 3:45 Curragh
Dagoda
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
Dagoda relevant recent runs have been in 22k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 11.55k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 56 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Dagoda as running in the 2nd, 16th, 19th, 24th, and 6th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 56 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Dagoda as having the 6th, 29th, 2nd, 8th, and 24th best ratings. I had at a price of 8.31. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. 1* Selection.
15:35 3:35 Newton Abbot
Wavering Down
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Wavering Down relevant recent runs have been in 5.6k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 5.86k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 45 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Wavering Down as running in the 27th, 16th, 27th, 4th, and 27th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 45 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Wavering Down as having the 13th, 17th, 2nd, 9th, and 1st best ratings. I had at a price of 4.96. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. 0.25* Selection.
15:15 3:15 Curragh
Poet Master
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
Poet Master relevant recent runs have been in 20k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 53.17k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 40 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Poet Master as running in the 21st, 24th, 24th, 35th, and 40th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 40 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Poet Master as having the 9th, 1st, 11th, 29th, and 27th best ratings. I had at a price of 3.85. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
15:05 3:05 Newton Abbot
Sassified
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Sassified relevant recent runs have been in 4.2k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.5k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 50 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Sassified as running in the 24th, 12th, 24th, 35th, and 12th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 50 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Sassified as having the 50th, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 11th best ratings. I had at a price of 4.71. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (2*) value pick. Selection.
14:55 2:55 Stratford
Dancingontheedge
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-50
Dancingontheedge relevant recent runs have been in 3.8k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 3.69k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 33 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Dancingontheedge as running in the 1st, 16th, 16th, 16th, and 6th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 33 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Dancingontheedge as having the 22nd, 4th, 2nd, 31st, and 14th best ratings. I had at a price of 2.48. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. 0.25* Selection.
14:52 2:52 Redcar
Profit Street
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Profit Street relevant recent runs have been in 3.8k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 3.94k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 59 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Profit Street as running in the 8th, 8th, 8th, 8th, and 42nd most difficult recent races. Ranking the 59 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Profit Street as having the 4th, 49th, 33rd, 7th, and 1st best ratings. I had at a price of 7.97. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
14:35 2:35 Newton Abbot
Coup De Gold
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Coup De Gold relevant recent runs have been in 4k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.44k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 44 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Coup De Gold as running in the 3rd, 18th, 34th, and 34th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 44 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Coup De Gold as having the 40th, 18th, 9th, and 17th best ratings. I had at a price of 9.02. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
14:25 2:25 Stratford
Propelled
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Propelled relevant recent runs have been in 4k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 3.85k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 33 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Propelled as running in the 4th, 4th, 24th, 4th, and 2nd most difficult recent races. Ranking the 33 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Propelled as having the 8th, 3rd, 1st, 16th, and 25th best ratings. I had at a price of 3.83. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. 0.25* Selection.
14:10 2:10 Curragh
Camille Pissarro
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Camille Pissarro relevant recent runs have been in 65k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 25.77k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 29 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Camille Pissarro as running in the 1st, and 9th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 29 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Camille Pissarro as having the 16th, and 13th best ratings. I had at a price of 3.81. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
13:50 1:50 Stratford
Blue Stello
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Blue Stello relevant recent runs have been in 6.67k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 7.29k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 34 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Blue Stello as running in the 19th, 6th, and 27th most difficult recent races. Ranking the 34 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Blue Stello as having the 28th, 24th, and 1st best ratings. I had at a price of 5.29. I am looking for the best value in the race, not always the best horse, and I consider the current odds to be the best (1*) value pick. Selection.
Subtotal-450
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
