MonteCarloRacing

I like to run races through Monte Carlo simulations. I simulate every race each day 100,000 times. Each simulation uses 72 different variables relative to each horses form, history and market data. This is basically an automated way of calculating each horses number of simulated wins for this race. The results of the simulations provide me with my bets. I then couple that selection with a written description based on ratings. I like to keep the description generic and in a set way of writing but the tips are all based on the result of the race being simulated 100,000 times. I will be providing a selection for all All Weather Handicap races as that is my speciality. This is not about finding the most likely winner in each race, its about finding and playing margins for a long term steady return on investment. Its a value/volume way of betting.

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MonteCarloRacing's Tips

22nd March 2025
19:15 7:15 Newcastle

Lord Abama

Daily Racing

50 WIN

Lord Abama relevant recent runs have been in 4.33k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.81k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 16 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Lord Abama as running in the 2nd, 13th, and 2nd most difficult recent races. Ranking the 16 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Lord Abama as having the 1st, 3rd, and 3rd best ratings. 0.25pt Bet. (KEY - 3 of Top 5 Ratings, 3 of Top 3 Ratings, Best Avg Rating, Newcastle (AW) Flat.) (6f Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-68))."
19:30 7:30 Wolverhampton

Mr Nugget

Daily Racing

50 WIN

Mr Nugget relevant recent runs have been in 3.33k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 3.95k (Going up in class (on average) today). Ranking the 31 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Mr Nugget as running in the 7th, 22nd, and 22nd most difficult recent races. Ranking the 31 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Mr Nugget as having the 28th, 1st, and 3rd best ratings. 0.25pt Bet. (KEY - Best Max Rating, Best Avg Rating, Wolverhampton (AW) Flat.) (1m1½f (1m1f104y) Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+ 0-65))."
20:15 8:15 Newcastle

Dark Kestrel

Daily Racing

50 WIN

Dark Kestrel relevant recent runs have been in 5.5k avg class, whereas the avg of the rest of the runners is 4.13k (Dropping in class (on average) today). Ranking the 33 relevant recent run class ratings of the entire field shows Dark Kestrel as running in the 2nd, 2nd, 12th, and 1st most difficult recent races. Ranking the 33 relevant recent form ratings of the entire field shows Dark Kestrel as having the 1st, 18th, 12th, and 7th best ratings. 0.25pt Bet. (KEY - Best Avg Rating, Newcastle (AW) Flat.) (5f Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-75)).

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

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