brinewilsongs

Tottenham have conceded just 1 goal in their first 3 Premier League games, making them the league’s best defensive side. Their last outing was a 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth, where they managed only 6 shots, highlighting a lack of attacking sharpness without key forwards like James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, and Dominic Solanke available. West Ham, meanwhile, have scored 4 goals in 3 matches and were shut out in heavy defeats to Sunderland and Chelsea before a 3-0 win over a disorganised Nottingham Forest side last time out. Despite that win, the Hammers have failed to win any of their last 6 home league games, and each of their last 3 meetings with Spurs have ended in 1-1 draws. Tottenham have also struggled in London derbies, losing 10 of their last 16 and scoring sparingly in those fixtures. With both teams missing key attackers and recent matches between them consistently low-scoring, a tight, cautious affair is likely, making Under +2.50 goals a well-grounded prediction on this occasion, I feel.

The Hammers earned a convincing 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest last time out, while Tottenham are coming off a 1-0 loss to Bournemouth and have struggled to create chances without key attackers like James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, both sidelined with injuries. Spurs have managed only 2 goals in their last 3 matches as well and have failed to win in their last 5 London derbies as visitors, a trend that reflects their inconsistency in high-pressure local fixtures. With 3 consecutive draws in this fixture during recent history, I feel that is the most likely outcome here on current form, but wouldn't be surprised to see the hosts come out on top after a dominant display in their previous league match.

The Seagulls have won 5 of their last 6 Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, including both encounters last season by a 2-1 scoreline. They arrive at the Vitality Stadium fresh off a morale-boosting 2-1 comeback win over Manchester City, showing resilience and tactical maturity under Fabian Hürzeler. Brighton’s defence has been relatively solid as well, conceding just 4 goals in 3 matches now, and they’ve shown they can grind out results even when outshot, as they did against City. Bournemouth, while sitting higher in the table with six points, have benefited from narrow wins and still show signs of vulnerability, particularly in the final third where they’ve struggled to convert dominance into goals. Brighton’s midfield, led by Carlos Baleba, is expected to control possession, forcing Bournemouth into reactive play, which could expose their defence to Brighton’s pace and creativity on the break. With Brighton’s superior head-to-head record, recent momentum, and tactical edge, backing them to win or draw here is a relatively comfortable pick, for me.

Newcastle have scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 home matches against Wolves, both ending in 3-0 victories, while the last 5 overall have also been Over +2.50. Wolves have conceded 8 goals in their first 3 Premier League games, making them the league’s leakiest defence at the moment. Their last outing, a 3-2 defeat to Everton, further highlights their vulnerability at the back. Historically, Wolves have failed to keep a clean sheet in 43 visits to St James’ Park, with the last one dating back to 1974. With Newcastle eager to end their winless streak and Wolves desperate to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat, both teams are likely to push forward, in my opinion, increasing the chances of a high-scoring encounter here. Given the attacking reinforcements, defensive frailties, and historical goal patterns, expecting Over +2.50 goals in this fixture feels like a decent pick today.

Alverca have scored in 3 of their opening 4 four league matches, including a 2-2 draw against Estrela and a 2-1 loss to Benfica, showing they can find the net even against stronger opposition. Their defence, however, has been porous, conceding 9 goals during that same time. Tondela, despite sitting low in the table, have also shown signs of attacking life, scoring twice in a 2-2 draw with Estoril last time out. Their back line has been shaky, conceding the same amount of goals as their opponents in the first 4 league matches, which potentially points to a match dynamic where both teams are likely to create chances and struggle to keep clean sheets here. Back-to-back matches between these sides observed both teams on the scoresheet as well last season in the second tier.

Benfica have won 12 of their last 15 meetings against Santa Clara, including each of the last 8 encounters since January 2021. In 5 of those matches, Benfica kept a clean sheet, with comprehensive scorelines underscoring their defensive control and attacking superiority. At Estádio da Luz, Benfica have also won all 7 of their home games against Santa Clara, conceding just 1 goal across those fixtures. This season, Benfica remain unbeaten across all competitions, with 7 wins and 1 draw, including a 1-0 victory over Sporting Lisbon in the Super Cup and a 1-0 win over Fenerbahce in Champions League qualifying. Their defence has been particularly solid during this time, conceding only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, and they’ve kept clean sheets against top-tier opponents like Bayern Munich and Nice in recent history as well. Santa Clara, meanwhile, have struggled to find consistency, winning just 1 of their last 7 matches and failing to score in 4 of them. Their attack has been blunt, and they’ve historically failed to break down Benfica’s disciplined back line. Given the hosts' perfect league start, their home dominance, and Santa Clara’s scoring struggles, another clean-sheet win for Benfica is my pick here.

In their last 11 meetings, only 4 matches have gone Over +2.50 goals, a pattern which reflects a cautious approach when these sides face each other, especially at Portman Road, where Ipswich have struggled to break down Sheffield United’s compact defensive setup in recent times. Looking at recent performances, Ipswich have drawn 3 of their opening 4 Championship matches, all with scorelines of 1-1 or 0-1. Their attack has been blunt, averaging just 1 goal per game at home, while their xG at Portman Road sits at 1.44, suggesting limited high-quality chances. Sheffield United’s form is even more concerning, losing all 4 of their league matches this season, scoring only once and failing to find the net in their last 3 outings before this as well. Their xG away from home is just 1.00, but they’ve conceded only 0.80 goals per game on the road, indicating a defensive posture that still limits goal volume.

In their last 19 meetings, Sheffield United have won 7, drawn 7, and lost only 5, showing a consistent ability to avoid defeat against Ipswich Town before this. More notably, Sheffield United have remained unbeaten in their last 5 encounters with Ipswich now in all competitions. These results suggest a tactical edge and psychological confidence when facing Ipswich, especially in tight, low-scoring matches. Ipswich Town’s recent form is troubling as well, winless in 5 overall matches going into this. Meanwhile, Sheffield United, despite their own struggles, have shown resilience by often keeping matches close and competitive. Given the hosts' winless campaign up to now, Sheffield United’s historical success in this fixture, and their tendency to perform well in tightly contested matches, I think the visitors could get something here.

Bohemians won their most recent meeting with Derry City 1-0 in May of this year at Dalymount Park, and they’ve also remained unbeaten in 2 of their last 3 encounters. While Derry City holds a slight historical edge overall, Bohemians have consistently performed well at home in this fixture, winning 22 of 39 matches played in Dublin, and that home advantage is reinforced by a 3-0 win here last time out. Derry City, meanwhile, have a pattern of poor results on their travels to the current top-half teams up to now, compared with the hosts' perfect record on home soil against the other top five so far.

In their last 5 competitive meetings, all of them have ended with 2 goals or fewer, reflecting a consistent pattern of tight, low-scoring encounters, especially when both teams are competing near the top of the table at the moment. Bohemians currently rank 2nd in the Premier Division and have built their success on defensive solidity, conceding just 26 goals in 29 matches and keeping 12 clean sheets during that time as well. Their average goals per game sits at 1.2, and they tend to control possession without taking excessive risks, especially against top-tier opponents. Derry City, ranked 3rd, have a similar profile, with 40 goals scored and 32 conceded in 29 matches, with 10 clean sheets and a cautious approach in away fixtures. Against similarly positioned teams, both sides have shown a tendency to prioritise structure over aggression, often resulting in matches with limited scoring chances. Given the tactical discipline of both teams, their defensive records, and the historical trend of low-scoring head-to-head clashes, backing a lack of goals here seems like it could be a good pick.

Avellino’s last 3 competitive matches have all ended with 2 goals or fewer, including a 1-1 draw against Modena last time out, a 2-0 loss to Frosinone, and a 1-0 Cup defeat to Serie C opposition Audace Cerignola before that. Their attack has struggled to generate high-quality chances, and they’ve failed to score more than once in any of their last 5 competitive outings. Monza’s recent matches show a similar trend, with a 1-1 draw against Bari and a narrow 1-0 win over Mantova. Even their Coppa Italia loss to Frosinone ended 0-1, reinforcing their tendency towards tight, defensively structured games. Historically, the head-to-head record between Avellino and Monza is limited but telling, where Avellino won their only recent meeting 1-0, and both sides have shown a preference for cautious starts and low-risk buildup play. Betting markets reflect this expectation, with 77% of models predicting Under +2.50 goals and only 23% favouring the Over. Given both teams’ recent scoring struggles, defensive setups, and the historical tendency for low-scoring outcomes, this could well be an encounter with limited goals.

In their last 2 head-to-head meetings, Vitesse have remained unbeaten, securing a 1-0 away win in September 2024 and a 2-2 draw at home in April of this year. Jong AZ, meanwhile, are in poor form, having lost all 4 of their matches this season, conceding 9 goals and scoring only 3 in the process. Their defeats include a 4-1 loss to Jong Ajax and a 3-2 home defeat to Waalwijk, both teams with mid-table profiles similar to Vitesse. Vitesse, despite starting the season with a points deduction, have shown competitive strength in recent fixtures. In their last 5 matches before this campaign, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss, scoring 10 goals and conceding 6. Notably, they beat Den Bosch 3-1 and Roda JC 3-0, both of whom are stronger than Jong AZ on paper. Vitesse’s ability to score and keep games close makes the +2.00 handicap highly favourable here as well. Data points to a tight contest, with Vitesse well positioned to cover the spread today.

In their last 10 meetings, Istra have lost only twice, while winning 4 and drawing 4, including a 3-0 home win in April 2024 and a 1-0 away win in August 2024. Their most recent clash in February 2025 ended in a goalless draw, showing Istra’s ability to neutralise Slaven Belupo’s attack even while on the road. These results suggest a consistent pattern of competitiveness, with Istra often avoiding defeat regardless of venue, so this feels like quite a strong pick to me.

In their last 4 head-to-head meetings, Katowice has won 3 times, including a 3-2 away victory in May of this year and a 2-0 home win in November 2024. While Katowice’s overall away form is poor of late, they have shown resilience against similarly struggling teams, notably beating Radomiak Radom 3-2 last time out. Lechia Gda?sk has been in dismal form recently, only managing 1 win from their opening 7 league fixtures of the new campaign. Their defensive record is also particularly concerning, conceding an average of 2.71 goals per match overall and 2.33 at home, with only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 league games now as well. Given Lechia’s poor defensive metrics, lack of recent wins, and Katowice’s historical dominance in this matchup, a +0.25 Asian handicap leans favourably towards the visitors here.

In their last 5 meetings, Dubrava have avoided defeat 4 times, including a 2-1 away win in August 2024 and a 1-0 home victory in November 2024, while their most recent clash in May 2025 ended in a goalless draw. Rudeš have struggled for consistency lately, with just 1 win in their opening 4 league games so far this campaign, while Dubrava have won 2 of their last 3 overall going into today, including victory last time out despite being down to ten men at the time.

Shanghai Shenhua (2nd) have 4 consecutive wins versus Shandong Taishan (5th) in all competitions during recent history, each coming with a clean sheet, as well as the last 3 matches in a row where they were hosts. The home side go into this with 2 clean sheets in their last 3 games as well, while the visitors' record on their travels so far this season has been particularly poor versus other sides currently in the top half.