Scroggie

Opportunistic; but some focus is on the draw on the flat where the conventional wisdom is not always helpful or even up-to-date. Best returns can even come from poorer draws that are underbet.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£10

Estimated Prize money
this month

Scroggie's Tips History

12 September 2024

16:58 4:58 Newcastle

Scylla

Daily Racing

50 EW

@8.00

Lose

-100

A wide draw is no disadvantage over this distance at Newcastle and Scylla's odds may be extended by an indifferent run last time after a slow start. Set that aside and this lightly raced four year old won by over three lengths at Lingfield (turf) the previous outing. That should put him well in the picture here.

15:45 3:45 Epsom Downs

Enochdhu

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@8.00

Lose

-100

Haliphon is interesting. If you go back far enough there are soft and heavy ground victories in France and he is a last time out winner. However, Enochdhu is available at a better price, a distance winner, a winner on soft ground, and from an in-form stable that has had several winners in the last fortnight. He stays further than this - always handy on tacky ground - and at four years old we may not have seen the best of him yet.

15:15 3:10 Epsom Downs

Eljaytee

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-100

This crew of established handicappers have nothing hidden from the assessor so the percentage call could be Eljaytee, a previous soft ground winner over this distance with an advantageous inside draw today and a number of good recent runs. Has also been dropped three pounds since the last outing.

11 September 2024

19:25 7:25 Cork

Polemon

Daily Racing

50 EW

@7.50

Lose

-100

Poleman's comfortable win over further has been penalised by the handicapper but an apprentice has been engaged to negate it. Poleman has won over this shorter trip and the three year olds in the field may attract support to help the sp of the five year old Poleman.

17:33 5:33 Carlisle

Ugo Gregory

Daily Racing

50 EW

@15.00

Lose

-100

Ugo Gregory has run well on soft in the past and has a useful wide draw here. He's a distance winner and the handicap mark is okay if he turns up in the right mood - the price reflects the reliability issue.

17:03 5:03 Carlisle

William Dewhirst

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

William Dewhirst has been running on well towards the finish over seven furlongs so this first time over a mile might well suit. The predicted soft ground seems ideal and the draw away from the inside is a plus on this going. Beaten only two lengths when sixth last time out so is currently on a competitive mark four pounds below his last winning mark at this course.

16:55 4:55 Cork

Imperial Dream

Daily Racing

50 EW

@9.00

Win

A seven pound rise for a win in a 21 runner event at the Curragh over today's distance and similar going doesn't seem likely to hold back a sprinter in form. An apprentice is engaged to take the seven pounds straight back off.

16:41 4:41 Newcastle

Blackhouse Finn

Daily Races

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

Should lead on the inside following trap 4 around the first couple of bends but trap 4 runs mid and may leave room for the selection in trap 2 to get through - trap 2 does have better recent times and trap 4 tends to get caught.

15:55 3:55 Carlisle

Lotus Rose

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@8.50

Lose

-100

I can't select a low draw here on soft ground so that rules out three of them. Nothing greatly commends most of the rest of the field but Lotus Rose has had a wind op, has steadily been cut slack by the handicapper and was only beaten one and a half lengths last time out. There's a soft ground win in her back catalogue so the ground should be ideal.

15:05 3:05 Lingfield

Thiscouldbefun

Daily Racing

50 EW

@10.00

Lose

-100

I prefer an inside draw over this course and distance and the selection usually races prominently so can take advantage of the draw and hug the rail. Only beaten one and a half lengths last time out and improving with every run.

10 September 2024

19:30 7:30 Newcastle

Havana Rose

Daily Racing

50 EW

@34.00

Lose

-100

The selection was beaten less than two lengths over this course and distance in January and has dropped thirteen pounds since then in the handicap ratings. Has had a wind operation - could that be a turnaround?

18:45 6:45 Galway

Avondale

Daily Racing

50 EW

@6.50

Win

330

Three year old Moutarde is up ten pounds for a recent easy win or down 7 or 8 lengths as an alternative perspective. Three year olds are perhaps overbet at this time of year and my preference often is to take them on with an in form four year old. Last time out winner, Avondale, appears to be thriving and the stable is in fine fettle.

16:22 4:22 Catterick

Highjacked

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@7.00

Win

The selection is a course and distance winner who has won in the past on soft ground and has put in several good performances on soft. His two length second place last time out suggests he is competitively weighted and should at least make the frame. Hopefully he will start well from his high draw which should place him nicely for swinging over to the centre/stands side in the straight

16:14 4:14 Leicester

Measured Moments

Daily Racing

50 EW

@21.00

Lose

-100

Good performances including a win on soft and heavy ground last season catch the eye and a recent second place suggest this course and distance winning mare is running into form. Drawn on the outside and probably best when settled towards the back, so the jockey can move across if he wants, but nothing wrong with coming wide into the straight here under these soft conditions.

15:38 3:38 Romford

Bombay Lemon

Daily Races

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

Seems a lot quicker away than trap 2 so should get the inside pitch. Traps 4 and 6 have the end times to trouble him but I'll take my chances if the selection in trap one gets a clear run on the rails.

14:50 2:50 Catterick

Object

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@8.00

Lose

-100

A draw near the stand side is useful on soft ground at Catterick and Object has a clear preference for today's conditions (course and distance winner on soft) and a fine pilot engaged in Amy Waugh. Usually prominent so has a good chance of choosing which part of the course to race on, and the tacky ground should make it difficult for the closers so may hang on.

14:23 2:23 Romford

Sirius Warrior

Daily Races

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Quite a lot of early pace here, and the percentage call may be to get around the first two bends on the rails and emerge untroubled by any disputes to the middle and outside. Trap one should have an edge over trap 2 for early pace and escape.

09 September 2024

19:15 7:15 Galway

Cailin Deas

Daily Racing

50 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 21.00 used instead of 12.00 takenBOG

@21.00

Win

150

The Mullins hot pot may be overbet on debut and start odds on. That will leave several plausible each way bets and without collateral form to sort them out the Kilbegan close second place of the selection is available at a better price than the alternatives.

18:30 6:30 Wolverhampton

Cloudy Skye

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 13.00 used instead of 6.50 takenBOG

@13.00

Win

Likely to exploit inside draw by running prominently, perhaps trying to make all as that worked last time out. When three year old fillies progress in the autumn they can be worth following.

15:40 3:40 Perth

Sea Aster

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-100

Plenty to like about Sea Aster's recent runs before a late fall when weakening over an extended three miles last time out. Should not find Perth's fences particularly testing and the slightly shorter trip will assist.

15:05 3:05 Perth

Ravenscraig Castle

Daily Racing

50 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 12.00 used instead of 7.00 takenBOG

@12.00

Win

This flat winner can progress further over hurdles on his first start in a handicap hurdle. Two promising runs in second place haven't hidden anything from the handicap so further improvement will be needed.

08 September 2024

17:10 5:10 York

Humble Spark

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@9.00

Win

Three times a winner in his last 6 starts and over this distance. The going should also offer no worries and the amateur jockey has 10 wins to her name which is also a plus. Last time was beaten just over a length after dwelling at the start and not getting a clear run, which shows that he remains competitive at the current handicap mark. Drawn in stall 6 (as one inside has withdrawn) and I favour low draws over this trip at York so that is also almost ideal.

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16:35 4:35 York

Huddle Up

Daily Racing

50 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@19.00

Void

Huddle Up has been running placed recently and remains on a competitive mark. Often held up so may need to negotiate a passage through unless being on the often favoured inside rail, drawn one, leads to a change of tactics. My thinking is that the draw advantage could be a crucial one having watched sprints won at York's last meeting on that side.

14:15 2:15 York

Vince LAmour

Daily Racing

50 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 26.00 on 07/09 at 23:260.10 deduction for Mon Na Slieve@10.00 withdrawn at 09:350.00 deduction for Make It Easy @11.000 withdrawn at 10:110.00 deduction for Cover Point @12.000 withdrawn at 11:49R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 25.00 x (1-0.1) = 23.50

@23.50

Win

175

There seem to be several hold up horses drawn low here so I will take the longshot from stall 5, Vince L'Amour to break well, race prominently, grab any favoured ground on or near the inside rail, and make the best of his way home.

13:55 1:55 Fontwell

Happy Index

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.62

Lose

-100

Subject to strong market support after changing stable, and is on a low handicap mark after an unsuccessful period. Previous distance winner, and second at this course last yearso combining that with weak opposition and the market move this one may be "expected".

07 September 2024

20:30 8:30 Wolverhampton

Offiahs Boy

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@26.00

Win

200

First time in a handicap, the selection has been off for an extended period and comes back gelded in first time blinkers and a tongue strap. May be different gravy now.

15:00 Colchester v Bromley

Bromley

50 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-50

I doubt if we will see much improvement from Colchester this season and expect them to be flirting with relegation once again. If that's the case this is exactly the sort of home fixture they may lose.

06 September 2024

14:25 2:25 Ascot

Seaplane

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@12.00

Win

Already proven over the distance and going with a promising debut so could well surprise the favourites in this event.

13:50 1:50 Ascot

Law Supreme

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@6.50

Lose

-100

The soft ground is ideal for the selection and he is in good form with a second place last time. Great chance of at least making the frame.

13:25 1:25 Haydock

Scottish Reel

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.00

Void

Pedigree suggests this extra distance will suit and on first run in a handicap with scope for improvement on only fourth visit to a racecourse.

05 September 2024

17:35 5:35 Lingfield

Machiavellian Lady

Daily Racing

50 EW

@5.00

Lose

-100

Lady Dreamer has an obvious favourite's chance here after a course and distance win but the each way price of last time out winner and three year old Machiavellian Lady appeals as the main challenger and may be an improver.

16:32 4:32 Lingfield

Optician

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@7.00

Lose

-100

Optician rarely runs a bad race and is unlikely to be out of the frame. Some opponents have question marks. Nothing about Aviemore's pedigree suggests he needs to go another 2 furlongs even if Johnson trained horses often improve for distance. Appier tends to start modestly and I can't have one that regularly gives the rest a start. With those two out of the equation the selection has most to fear from first time in a handicap, Surrey Fire, but having won a novice event he isn't keeping too many secrets from the handicapper.

15:15 3:10 Haydock

Chuti Manika

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@7.00

Lose

-100

An each way price is available for the selection who has soft and good to soft victories on both sides of his pedigree and seems unlikely to be inconvenienced by the predicted going. Opponent, Green Icon, has no such soft going in his immediate background.

04 September 2024

16:41 4:41 Newcastle

Coolavannydelboy

Daily Races

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

The selection in trap 4 should start well and may lead, but he often gets caught late, so I tried to decide who could be on his tail but that isn't obvious. Perhaps trap 4 can last home helped by traffic problems behind.

15:32 3:32 Bath

Snow Berry

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@10.00

Win

540

An in-form sprinter who has winning form at both 5 and 6 furlongs and seems to run well on any going. Has most to fear from Media Guest and perhaps Vaunted.

14:32 2:32 Bath

Miss Gitana

Daily Racing

100 WINNB

@2.75

Lose

-100

I was looking for a reason to oppose this Prescott favourite but the other runners have not been progressive and are difficult to recommend. Three year old, Miss Gitana, may progress again.

14:29 2:29 Newcastle

Bramble Revel

Daily Races

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.50 on 04/09 at 11:55 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 2.75 used instead of 2.50 taken BOG

@3.75

Win

138

Seems likely to beat traps 1 and 3 to the first bend and be the inside dog in this race. Traps 5 and 6 may be a bother nearer the finish.

03 September 2024

19:15 7:15 Newcastle

Sixcor

Daily Racing

50 EW

@21.00

Lose

-100

Several things went wrong at Musselburgh last time out from a slow start to traffic problems late on, so best judged on previous win at Ayr. That form looks good here and if reproduced Sixcor has a chance of slipping through up the stand side rail late on from his high draw.

16:05 4:05 Goodwood

Alcazan

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@19.00

Lose

-100

Quite a bit of pace in this race with Many A Star, Rhythm N Hooves, Atalanta's Boy and Snuggle all potential fast starters and able to get over to the favoured stand side rail. The selection, Alcazan, despite having the favoured widest draw of all may have to drop in on the rail behind the leader (his usual tactics) but if avoiding traffic issues should be finishing well to pick up the front rank.

15:40 3:40 Southwell

Dandy Fitz

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@3.75

Lose

-100

Dandy Fitz won only a few days ago over course and distance and from a similar low draw. Everything is in place again and although carrying a six pound penalty for that one and a half length win that usually doesn't stop an in from sprinter. I expect him to shrug it off and win again in similar front running fashion.

15:20 3:20 Gowran Park

Kailasa

Daily Racing

50 EW

@7.50

Win

Kailasa has taken a walk in the market and I can't resist this each way price about a filly that hasn't been out the frame in her last five outings.

15:19 3:19 Romford

March On Ivy

Daily Races

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

Fast starter from the outside trap who is quickly dropping back down a grade and may get in front early and just stay there.

12:46 12:46 Oxford

My Mate Ronnie

Daily Races

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

This race is made interesting by trap 2 who has sometimes moved off and could potentially inconvenience the wider draws. The selection in trap one will stick to the rails and has the times to compete here whether or not trap 2 makes mischief for the others.

02 September 2024

17:00 5:00 Windsor

Stintino Sunset

Daily Racing

50 EWNB

@9.50

Win

510

Consistent sort who has run on at the finish over ten furlongs more than once and may be suited by todays' extra yardage in a race where nothing else stands out.

14:54 2:54 Central Park

No More Biscuits

Daily Races

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

Has a sporting chance of beating trap one to the first bend and if that is accomplished the railer in trap one may continue to be the main challenger and will need the door closed at subsequent bends. This top grade event has quite a few with comments of "slow start"and "missed break", so the selection, trap 2, appeals as the best starter and may not get caught.

14:05 2:05 Chepstow

Hawajes

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 9.00 on 01/09 at 22:580.20 deduction for Comedian Leader@4.50 withdrawn at 08:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 8.00 x (1-0.20) = 7.40

@7.40

Win

384

Working on the premise that likely favourite, Vaunted, has never won over seven furlongs and may therefore not follow up on a recent 6f win, this race is open. Hawajes is a distance winner and on the same mark as when a half length second here over a mile in July so should be competitive. Each way as he tends to arrive on the scene late and may not quite make it.

01 September 2024

17:22 5:22 Brighton

Alfred Cove

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@4.00

Lose

-100

Bernard Spierpoint is better on the all weather and Nordic Glory is on a higher mark than when recently beaten nine lengths at Brighton. This leaves the selection, Alfred Cove, twice a course winner at idiosyncratic Brighton, happy on the predicted going, and with the excellent booking of Luke Morris as jockey.

15:00 Kilmarnock v Hibernian

Kilmarnock

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

On recent form Kilmarnock are offering more than Hibs who have been quite disappointing and with home advantage these odds look like good value.

15:00 Sheff Utd v Watford

Watford

50 WIN

@4.60

Lose

-50

Watford have made a promising start to the season and scoring three goals away from home at Millwall does suggest they may take the game to the home side.

13:59 1:59 Sunderland

Tullymurry Dejay

Daily Races

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Should just about make it the first bend to the fore and can take advantage of any bumping behind from a group of evenly matched dogs.

13:30 Newcastle v Tottenham

Tottenham

50 WIN

@2.75

Lose

-50

Tottenham's cavalier style under current management lends itself to scoring games where any result is feasible and that puts them in with a good shout away from home at Newcastle.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.