Scroggie

Opportunistic; but some focus is on the draw on the flat where the conventional wisdom is not always helpful or even up-to-date. Best returns can even come from poorer draws that are underbet.

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Scroggie's Tips History

All tips
10 February 2025
19:45 St Mirren v Hearts

St Mirren

50 WIN

@3.20

Lose

-50

Overall, it has not been a season without promise for St Mirren. A combination of home advantage and a sense that Hearts' recovery may have been overhyped leave the St Mirren odds looking like value.
09 February 2025
15:55 3:55 Chepstow

Babatunde

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.50

Lose

-50

The selection's recent third of fourteen looks good in the context of this race and he may be better over this shorter trip.
15:00 Scotland v Ireland

Scotland

To Win

50 WIN

@3.20

Lose

-50

This may be Scotland's best chance of beating Ireland in a decade. Scotland have one of their most promising teams for some time and Ireland may just have passed their peak.
14:00 2:00 Exeter

Georgi Girl

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

Georgi Girl brings some fairly good hurdle form to her debut chase and is suited by the good to soft ground and the distance. The two that are vying for favourite may both be better on a softer surface and possibly even at two miles.
08 February 2025
16:45 England v France

France

To Win

50 WIN

@1.40

Lose

-50

France are not generally good travelers, but a gulf currently exists between the form of these teams. A lot of breaks would need to go England's way to keep them competitive here.
15:23 3:23 Uttoxeter

Rock Hurley

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@17.00

Lose

-50

Rock Hurley has tumbled down the handicap yet showed signs of revival when third last time out. Brian Hughes is onboard so plenty of assistance there.
15:00 Annan Athletic v Dumbarton

Dumbarton

50 WIN

@3.60

Lose

-50

Barring the 15 point deduction for going into administration, Dumbarton would be a close match with Annan in this league. Indeed they have taken more points from their last 6 matches than Annan have. Therefore the odds for Dumbarton may be value in a tight league where no one can be confident of any win.
15:00 Arbroath v Inverness CT

Inverness CT

50 WIN

@2.70

Lose

-50

Barring the 15 point deduction for going into administration, this Inverness side would be title challengers after showing much improved form. After frequent dull draws under previous management, they are now entertaining and on the winning side more often than not.
15:00 Falkirk v Partick

Falkirk

50 WIN

@1.60

Win

30

Partick have won only 3 of their last 8 as their promotion challenge has withered into play-off chance only. Falkirk need to win this sort of match at home to get that automatic top spot.
15:00 Montrose v Alloa

Alloa

50 WIN

@2.70

Lose

-50

Montrose are going through a rocky period with only 2 wins in their last 12 league matches whereas Alloa have at least perked up a little recently.
15:00 Stenhousemuir v Queen of South

Stenhousemuir

50 WIN

@2.80

Win

90

Queens have taken a sum total of only one point from their last 4 away matches. Stenhousemuir have been on the drift lately but maintain a sturdy defense both at home and away. That may keep Queens at bay and give them every chance of taking this.
14:40 2:40 Warwick

Gala Marceau

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@1.83

Lose

-50

This Irish visitor is likely to make short work of the home mares. A recent seven length defeat by Lossiemouth looks eye catching.
14:15 Italy v Wales

Italy

To Win

50 WIN

@1.44

Win

22

Italy are no fall guys in this competition anymore and are well capable of beating a Wales side that is on a dreadful run, even without home advantage.
14:05 2:05 Warwick

Rubaud

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.50

Lose

-50

Rubaud was better over hurdles than the short priced favourite here and is in receipt of five pounds. Coming from a top stable, we can assume that his jumping has progressed since falling on chase debut.
13:30 1:30 Warwick

Zambezi Fix

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

Zambezi Fix drops into a class 4 handicap after mixing it mainly in higher grades. This grey has also come down the handicap ratings. Now may be the opportunity to strike against some run of the mill opposition.
13:20 1:20 Naas

Holy See

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.62

Lose

-50

Was behind Bacchanalian on boxing day but enjoys a seven pound turnaround for two and a half lengths. Then there is a competent five pound claimer engaged. So with 12 pounds in his pocket, Holy See is the form pick.
12:30 West Brom v Sheff Wed

Sheff Wed

50 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-50

With only 2 wins in their last 8 games, West Brom are on the slide out of the play-off places. A win for Wednesday will put them a point ahead of West Brom and in with the prospect of play-off action. A big game for both sides which Wednesday must surely go for, whereas West Brom may be cautious with more to lose.
12:15 Leeds v Millwall

Leeds

50 WIN

@1.55

Lose

-50

Leeds' current form, especially at home, suggests that they have a better than 2 in 3 prospect of winning this game. So, I will take the short price.
07 February 2025
19:45 Ayr v Hibernian

Hibernian

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

47

Hibs face in-form Ayr striker, George Oakley, but I don't see the problem. He made limited impact when picked at Inverness in a previous season and is probably not quick enough to trouble a Premier defence. Hibs are a great bet at nearly evens. They are on form and probably a class above. No cup shock here.
19:45 Mansfield v Northampton

Draw

50 WIN

@3.60

Lose

-50

Mansfield have lost four in a row, but Northampton bring only slightly better form to the match. Given that Mansfield are quite often in low scoring matches it is surprising that they don't draw more often. Draw seems most likely.
17:01 5:01 Newcastle

Blackhouse Alan

Daily Races

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Recently downgraded trap 2 can grab the rail here and see off fellow brisk starters in traps 3 and 4 at the first or second bend. If not, he still should be clear through on the inside and able to run on and challenge.
16:25 4:25 Bangor on Dee

Barra Blue

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

This is a mares' novices' handicap hurdle, which could be a definition of an open race. Looking down the list for an each-way challenger, Barra Blue won three outings back on that very tacky heavy ground you get at Leicester and is now only five pounds higher. A return to anything like that form would put her right in the mix.
16:15 4:15 Dundalk

Never Shout Never

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.38

Lose

-50

With several opponents probably better over 6 furlongs, take Never Shout Never to repeat a recent course and distance win and possibly lead from the start.
16:04 4:04 Newcastle

Dairyhill Suzi

Daily Races

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

This inside runner in trap 5 should find openings in this handicap to get by and into the event ahead of the rail-running trap 6, who may find, at the very least, trap 5 in his way.
14:42 2:42 Bangor on Dee

Laganhill

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.50 used instead of 3.00 takenBOG

@3.50

Win

125

Big Ginge has seconditis, so is a favorite worth taking on. Malinificent perseveres at two miles, possibly looking for a reasonable handicap mark before being upped in distance. Paddy's Policy is more interesting than either of them but carries a winner's penalty. That leaves the selection as the once-raced winner and seven-year-old Laganhill, who presumably has been a little fragile but should follow up under similar conditions to the debut win.
13:42 1:42 Bangor on Dee

Micks Jet

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

Lightly raced Mick's Jet is probably still improving and should cope with a lift of ten pounds in the handicap ratings. Drawing further clear towards the end of an impressive two and a half mile victory at Wetherby, this move up to three miles should suit.
13:20 1:20 Kempton

High Fibre

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.83

Lose

-50

Placed third and then second in two large field maiden hurdles, this race looks ideal for High Fibre. These performances are probably 10 pounds (equivalent to about 10 lengths at this distance) ahead of any of the rivals.
06 February 2025
16:20 4:15 Ffos Las

Walkinthewoods

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

Was hoping for a better price, but let's not be put off by market support. Has come down in the weights to a useful mark, and the opponents in form are going the other way and up in grade. Headgear may be expected to make a difference given the market support.
16:05 4:05 Huntingdon

Fortune De Mer

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.62

Lose

-50

It's often said that carrying a penalty in a National Hunt flat race is a difficult thing to do. I disagree, and if it can be tricky, that is usually more than catered for by the available odds. In this case, the odds hardly come into it, for the selection's chance is outstanding.
15:45 3:40 Ffos Las

A Moments Madness

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Early morning support for Mumbles is interesting, but mainly because it leaves A Moments Madness at a better price. The selection made a promising chase debut and can come on from that, having stayed on in heavy going here over hurdles.
05 February 2025
16:45 4:45 Ludlow

Percussion

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.75

Lose

-50

Enrilo may be into decline and Frere D'armes may have stamina issues so the eye is drawn to Percussion who may return to form on this sounder surface and should last home better than many.
16:35 4:35 Sedgefield

Demoiselle Kap

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 10.00 on 05/02 at 13:400.10 deduction for Love True@8.00 withdrawn at 16:05R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 9.00 x (1-0.10) = 9.10

@9.10

Win

405

Beaten by Tour Ovalie last time out and she was a fine winner at Taunton yesterday. After 4 wins over jumps in France, the selection is worth persevering with in this poor quality field.
15:35 3:35 Sedgefield

Lets Go Joe

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.62

Lose

-50

The return to twenty furlongs can mean a return to previous winning form for Let's Go Joe after failing to see out three miles last time.
15:15 3:15 Ludlow

King Of Records

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

This Sea The Stars gelding brings some reasonable French flat form to the table. Given the likely odds-on favorite carries a seven-pound penalty for a one-length victory, he is worth challenging.
15:05 3:05 Sedgefield

Minella Youngy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Lightly raced Minella Youngy may still be improving and comes here following a wind operation. The opposition is uninspiring and has more convictions.
29 January 2025
20:00 Aston Villa v Celtic

Celtic

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Just as Rangers were very competitive last week against Spurs, it wouldn't take much for Celtic to get a goal here and prosper. The odds reflect a bias towards English football, that is not quite as clear-cut as many think.
28 January 2025
20:00 8:00 Wolverhampton

Red Walls

Daily Racing

50 EWNAP

@21.00

Lose

-100

Red Walls is in excellent form at present and these odds seem like value for a selection that may lead early and has the chance of hanging on up the short Wolverhampton straight.
19:45 Colchester v Port Vale

Port Vale

50 WIN

@3.20

Void

0

Colchester have only won 5 out of 14 home games whereas Port Vale are at the top of the away results league table.
19:45 Notts County v Carlisle

Carlisle

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Carlisle need wins to escape the drop and their away form is not too bad. Notts County are seeking a promotion place, but the Carlisle desperation may be the bigger motivator in a game that Notts County may expect to cruise.
19:45 Wrexham v Stevenage

Draw

50 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-50

Wrexham are showing some signs of faltering. Stevenage have been involved in some very low scoring matches when away from home. Stuffy Stevenage may hang on in here at nil-nil, or even steal one goal to make it even harder for the home side.
27 January 2025
20:00 Burnley v Leeds

Burnley

50 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-50

Burnley's solid defence and good home record can stymie the division leaders, Leeds, who can be less than steadfast at the back.
26 January 2025
19:00 Fulham v Man Utd

Draw

50 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-50

Man United run quite a tight outfit when away from home. That should keep them in this match even if they concede the first goal. A draw seems possible.
16:30 Aston Villa v West Ham

Draw

50 WIN

@4.50

Win

175

Neither side is high-scoring, with West Ham particularly tight away from home. It should be close, so the draw may be of value.
14:00 Crystal Palace v Brentford

Draw

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Crystal Palace's home form is weak and Brentford's away form is poor. Unable to make a case for either, the draw looks worth a play.
14:00 Le Havre v Brest

Brest

50 WIN

@2.30

Win

65

Le Havre have lost their last 4 at home and scored only 6 times in 9 home ties. Brest won't be the first to make an impression at Le Havre (that's a Monet joke for art lovers).
14:00 Tottenham v Leicester

Leicester

50 WIN

@5.50

Win

225

Fear of relegation is a great motivator and with Spurs on the slide the odds for the away win look like value.
12:00 Dundee Utd v Rangers

Dundee Utd

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Rangers' weak away form combined with Dundee United's advance to third in the table make the odds for a home win quite inviting.
25 January 2025
17:30 Man City v Chelsea

Chelsea

50 WIN

@2.90

Lose

-50

Man City have just lost 4 goals in a half of football and may prove quite fragile after their European debacle. Chelsea can take advantage of this.
12:30 Huddersfield v Bolton

Draw

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Huddersfield's recent form has been a little underwhelming at home with draws quite common, while Bolton are still within reach of a play-off place. Should be tight.
12:30 Luton v Millwall

Millwall

50 WIN

@4.00

Win

150

This is a relegation battle, and Millwall's stubborn defense can keep them in this. Perhaps they are the value to nick the points and make mid-table.
12:30 Stoke v Oxford Utd

Stoke

50 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-50

A Stoke win here gives them some respite from the basement battle and is an essential part of their survival. Big day for Stoke against the safely mid-table Oxford.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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