Scroggie
Looking for bets where the odds seem to underestimate the chance of winning.
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Scroggie's Tips History
27 April 2025
18:45 6:45 Southwell
Gibside
Daily Racing
100 WINNB
@9.00
Lose
-100
It may be 2 miles, but don't eliminate the effect of the draw, with high numbers definitely not favoured on the stats. Several of the fancied horses are drawn towards the high side, so take them on with Gibside. Gibside will probably be held up and take a short route around the inside in rear. When it opens up, spread out for the final dash at Southwell, traffic problems seem unlikely for this strong traveller who will likely have something saved.
15:45 3:45 Southwell
Lil Guff
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-100
Lil Guff can follow up an all-the-way win at Bath recently with a similar 'make all' dash along the standside rail from stall thirteen.
15:15 3:15 Southwell
Arctic Dawn
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-100
Ran well on the all-weather, back from a break last year, and has the additional plus of being gelded before his four-year-old career.
14:30 2:30 Wetherby
Rock Camelot
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-100
A handy low draw plays to this front runner's strengths and should enable her to lead on the rail without too much early effort. First time in a handicap so improvement is also probable.
Subtotal-400
24 April 2025
17:00 5:00 Tipperary
Tomarlo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Has merely to translate all-weather form to this turf event to look solid here. Opposition: the probable favorite is first time in a handicap and may have a secret from the handicapper.
15:47 3:47 Beverley
Two B Tanned
Daily Racing
100 WINNB
@2.20
Win
120
There's a lot of all-weather form in this race, so preference is for the course and distance turf form of Two B Tanned, who can follow up a recent all-the-way win.
14:25 2:25 Perth
Langdale Lane
Daily Racing
50 EW
@SP
Lose
-100
Over 600 days off the track, but they have persevered, so probably ready to go. Has good form over this distance on this going, and the price will reflect the long time off.
14:15 2:15 Beverley
Thunder Star
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@SP
Lose
-100
Low draws are overbet here over 5 furlongs, so look to the middle draws for value. The selection beat 16 opponents at Doncaster and should stay on up the Beverley slope to hit the frame at least.
Subtotal-130
21 April 2025
17:30 5:30 Redcar
Mayday Mayday
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@17.00
Lose
-100
In an effort to obscure the inside bias on the straight course, Redcar has been placing the stalls on the stand side and early winners today are running up that rail. However with a much bigger field for the 5.30 that may not work and I expect the winner to come from a low number. First time in a handicap, Mayday Mayday, sports a visor and a seven pound claiming jockey and can run prominently to use the draw to advantage.
17:00 5:00 Fairyhouse
Noble Birth
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@34.00
Lose
-50
Recently won at Fairyhouse in soft going, making all and jumping well. Gets in near bottom weight which should prove helpful on soft ground over this extended trip.
16:50 4:50 Redcar
Groundhog
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Groundhog is keen and likely to race prominently. He may get to the rail and last home in only his fifth ever race, after a promising third over the course and distance last time out.
16:44 4:44 Chepstow
Impecunious
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Recent course winner, Impecunious, can follow up over a longer trip. He was keeping on at the finish and may be better for the extra half mile.
Subtotal-250
16 April 2025
17:00 5:00 Cheltenham
Game Colours
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@8.00
Win
20
Consistent sort who remains competitive on this mark in what looks like an open race where I would tend to avoid the favourite and second favourite on value grounds.
16:17 4:17 Gowran Park
Declaree
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Made all last time out, and that could help her get across to the inside, which judging by the third race, is the place to be. Morning market support suggests fitness after a layoff.
15:42 3:42 Gowran Park
Voice Of Northeast
Daily Racing
50 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 7.50 takenBOG
@8.00
Win
20
Some promise from the last time out in fourth place, but the main attraction is fewer convictions than several of the uninspiring opposition.
15:25 3:25 Beverley
Arkinthestars
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Will probably race prominently thus taking full benefit of her low draw. They have been finishing well on the inside at Beverley today so should still be going on at the finish.
Subtotal-60
12 April 2025
15:35 3:35 Ayr
Brandt
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-100
Prefer to look at seven-year-olds as they are young enough to improve ahead of their handicap marks. Couple that thought with any good form over extended distances and an ability to cope with drying good to soft spring ground. That short list will include Brandt, who gets in on a modest 10 stone 2 pounds.
15:12 3:12 Newbury
Metal Merchant
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@7.00
Lose
-100
Won this last year and may be at his best first time out after a lay-off. Six pounds higher rating than last year, but this may be offset by a high draw which could be a benefit over this trip. They were finishing well on the stands side on Friday.
15:00 Inverness CT v Kelty Hearts
Inverness CT
50 WIN
@1.45
Lose
-50
Inverness are a far better side (15 points better) than their current league position and had a fine away win last week. Kelty are in a disappointing phase.
Subtotal-250
11 April 2025
17:55 5:55 Sedgefield
Redbridge Rambler
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
The morning favourite, Hostile Hotelier, has mainly been kept to hurdles, and the Pipe stable (Chemical Warfare) has not been running to form lately. Therefore, Redbridge Rambler can back up a recent win on going he likes.
16:00 4:00 Fontwell
Fine Investment
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@5.50
Lose
-5
The selection is a recent course winner over slightly further and is described as "travelling strongly." Ivane, the probable favourite, also won last time out, but that was over hurdles. Ivane has rarely been tried over fences and has not shone. They have decided to try him again, but I think this favourite can be taken on over fences. At ten years old, Fine Investment is unlikely to improve, but that seems to be factored into a generous each-way price in an 8-runner contest.
13:30 1:30 Ayr
Kingston James
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@7.00
Win
10
Kingston James left much of the winter to the mudlarks and has the good ground form to thrive this spring. Scotland has just had some sunny days. He has gone up 9 pounds for a comfortable win in a class 2 event at Musselburgh last time out. However some of his adversaries at the top of the market have a habit of finding one too good and coming placed, so we'll take them on. This is a class 3 event so the selection is also dropping in class. The Russell stable continues in good form - another plus.
Subtotal-45
10 April 2025
17:45 5:45 Limerick
Amina
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
Beaten only two and a half lengths at Galway on debut. That looks like the best form available here. Has had 8 months off, but listed as favourite in mid-afternoon, so I expect she will turn up fit and ready.
17:23 5:23 Hereford
Sinchi Roca
Daily Racing
50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@1.73
Void
0
Drew clear and won "readily" on heavy ground, but has previously won a point to point on good ground. Look no further.
16:12 4:12 Lingfield
Mount Mogan
Daily Racing
50 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 15.00 takenBOG
@17.00
Win
110
Up in grade but is in great form with the last two runs being course and distance victories. Middle draws do well over the 7f at Lingfield. Available at an each way price.
15:10 3:10 Hereford
Pittsburg
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Win
175
Pittsburg is a winner on this going and over this distance just a couple of weeks back and has been raised only 4 pounds. Must have a good chance of following up.
Subtotal235
09 April 2025
17:25 5:25 Leopardstown
Si Senior
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.50
Lose
-50
An inside draw could be significant here. The selection has a recent fourth place in a large field on similar going at this track. That looks like the best form on offer here.
17:20 5:20 Catterick
Sacred Falls
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@9.00
Win
30
A low draw can help over this trip. Sacred Falls has been competing on the all weather but his best recent form is on drying turf, good and good to firm. The stable's runners have been running to form.
16:13 4:13 Catterick
Coconut Bay
Daily Racing
50 EW
@6.00
Push
0
I witnessed Coconut Bay's close second place at Musselburgh last week, and she does look very competitive in this class. Middle draws are okay on the round course over this distance at Catterick, and early signs today suggest finishers from across the track in the final furlong.
Subtotal-20
08 April 2025
16:07 4:07 Pontefract
Invitorio
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@11.00
Lose
-100
It may be counter-intuitive given the shape of the track but high numbers are fine over the 6 furlong trip at Pontefract. Invitorio finished last season with a novice win on soft. I have checked the sire and he has wins on good to firm and good going so today's drying ground should not be an issue. Fitness might be.
15:32 3:32 Pontefract
Fahrenheit Seven
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.00
Win
150
Has had a freshener and should be primed to strike. I like that he has won over 6 furlongs as the Pontefract 5 furlongs is uphill, yet he seems likely to have the speed to take advantage of his low draw and race prominently throughout.
Subtotal50
07 April 2025
16:45 4:45 Kelso
Port Station
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-100
The booking of Brian Hughes may be a significant pointer. With little form to go on, Port Station looks much better value than the Russell runner.
16:27 4:27 Redcar
Lechuga Lad
Daily Racing
50 EW
@10.00
Lose
-100
Lightly raced and open to further improvement if pulling less. Expect Kaiya Fraser will look for cover early and get into contention late.
Subtotal-200
06 April 2025
17:15 5:15 Ffos Las
Bumpy Evans
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 3.25 on 06/04 at 11:350.15 deduction for Palawan Du Mazet@6.00 withdrawn at 14:050.00 deduction for Ceejaybe @13.000 withdrawn at 14:47R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.25 x (1-0.15) = 2.91
@2.91
Win
95
Jockey Alan Johns rides the probable favourite in a race with his own name in the title. Apart from that Bumpy Evans is consistent, suited by the trip and going, and at 7 years old is probably capable of further improvement to nullify the six pound rise for his win last time out.
16:20 4:20 Southwell
Cinque Verde
Daily Racing
50 EW
@21.00
Lose
-100
Prefer a high draw over 5 furlongs at Southwell, and Cinque Verde is highest and may try to make all along the rail. Up in grade, but a sprinter in form (winner last time out) is difficult for the handicapper to catch up with. This mare may shrug off the rise in her handicap mark.
15:57 3:57 Cork
Elizabeth Jane
Daily Racing
50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@4.00
Void
0
The selection would love some rain. Twice a winner on heavy ground, but fourth in the Irish Oaks on good ground, and that is easily the standout form in this event.
14:00 Fulham v Liverpool
Liverpool
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
These are generous odds for Liverpool, who seem likely to find a higher gear than Fulham if required. It's difficult to pass on nearly evens for Liverpool.
Subtotal-55
05 April 2025
17:05 5:05 Newcastle
Japetus
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@2.20
Void
0
This smooth traveller won going away over the course and distance three weeks ago. Has the previous winner's penalty to carry but as a four year old that merely raises him to a similar mark to the majority of this field. I have never subscribed to the theory that carrying a penalty in national hunt flat races is particularly difficult, although I am fond of the idea being out there as it improves the value in the odds.
16:00 4:00 Aintree
Twig
Daily Racing
50 EW
@51.00
Lose
-100
Twig ticks boxes for distances beyond 3 miles and for good ground. I recognize the ground is officially good to soft and the going stick has backed that up, but the evidence of my own eyes over the last 2 days at Aintree, added to the sunshine and breeze over the 3-day meeting, has left me focusing on the good ground horses. There are at least eight of them who have won on good ground. Last year was a new national - just an ordinary long-distance chase - so special jumping ability is no longer a requirement.
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15:00 Cove Rangers v Inverness CT
Inverness CT
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
Inverness, overcoming a 15-point deduction, have to put behind them a couple of poor performances. But at least that has left them at a value price. They may no longer harbor play-off pretensions, but have the motivation of staying out of relegation trouble.
15:00 Kilmarnock v Motherwell
Motherwell
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Neither side is in reliable form. In the circumstances Motherwell represent the better value. Scoring first may be crucial for both sides with confidence low.
15:00 Rangers v Hibernian
Hibernian
50 WIN
@7.00
Win
300
Rangers continue to huff and puff through league games despite showing well in Europe. Hibernian have been on a very strong run, and these odds look attractive.
15:00 Ross County v Aberdeen
Ross County
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
The motivation of steering out of relegation trouble could be enough to see off an Aberdeen side that have revived. But how long will that revival last?
15:00 West Ham v Bournemouth
Bournemouth
50 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-50
Bournemouth can get back in the groove and show their high position in the league reflects serious strength and is no temporary fluke. West Ham think they can do better without Moyes as manager. I doubt that and expect longer-term decline.
14:40 2:40 Newcastle
Cerendipity
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Lose
-50
I'm keen to oppose the overnight favourite here who last time out ran over more than 4 miles and is entitled to be feeling some effects. Frequently tapped for toe and finishing second over shorter trips is also held against him. Cerendipity, who may challenge Choosethenews for favouritism, is a winner last time out and only one pound up in the handicap. With a sire that preferred soft ground there may be a question over today's good ground, but he has been okay on good to soft, so Cerendipity is the choice.
14:15 2:15 Chepstow
The Boola Boss
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Win
150
Most of the field will appreciate the good ground including the selection. The Boola Boss has the added advantage of a recent winning run and that may give him the edge.
12:30 Everton v Arsenal
Everton
50 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-50
With David Moyes as manager, I expect Everton to continue to progress. They are value at these odds for a home win.
Subtotal200
03 April 2025
17:02 5:02 Sedgefield
Balranald
Daily Racing
100 WINNB
@8.50
Lose
-100
This course and distance winner will also like today's going and was only beaten six lengths at Carlisle recently when returning from a break. The stable is in good form.
16:50 4:50 Plumpton
Smith
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@15.00
Lose
-100
Ran well for a long way previously at Plumpton when finishing fourth on good to soft. This frequent flat winner on the all weather may find today's good ground to his liking and his jumping can only improve.
Subtotal-200
31 March 2025
20:00 Celta Vigo v Las Palmas
Celta Vigo
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
Las Palmas are conceding an average of 2 goals a game away from home and are deep in relegation trouble. Celta are strong at home. Home win.
19:45 Lazio v Torino
Lazio
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
Torino are going well with four games unbeaten. Lazio have to start getting 3 points from games if they are to creep into a European slot. Take Lazio to have the stronger motivation over mid-table Torino.
19:45 Paris FC v Caen
Paris FC
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Promotion pushing Paris against bottom club Caen, who have now lost touch with the pack. Only one outcome can be expected here. Caen score an average of less than a goal a game.
18:00 FC Copenhagen v Randers FC
Randers FC
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Copenhagen are unbeaten at home and worthy favorites, but Randers have the best away record in the league, and a win here would project them into contention for Europe.
17:30 Verona v Parma
Draw
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
Verona have scored 13 goals in 14 home games whereas Parma have scored 13 goals in 14 away games. With both teams just above the relegation places, not losing will be the most important outcome. Expect few goals which makes the draw quite possible.
16:55 4:55 Wolverhampton
Alafdhal
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@SP
Lose
-100
Drawn wide, just outside top amateur Serena Brotherton's horse. But our amateur has a habit of winning half a dozen a year and is also competent. Course and distance winner who was recently second under these conditions.
Subtotal-130
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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