TrueGunnerUK

Duke Of Oxford is handicapped to the hilt, so maybe vulnerable for win purposes in ultra-competitive Northumberland Plate. But Taryn Langley takes off 7lbs, which you could argue is probably more valuable in these staying handicaps. Langley has also ridden some winners over staying trips this year, most notably on Tides Of War in The All-Weather Vase (2m) at Lingfield on Good Friday. Duke was 3rd in the Plate last year, beaten 4l to Onesmoothoperator. He probably hit front too soon from 2f out that day as tank emptied soon after. The hope is he can be held on to for just a bit longer this time. He gets significant pull in weights with last year’s winner, for all, that one has improved a lot since. Even still, I want no part of Onesmoothoperator carrying the top weight of 9-12 here. He can still run well, but Melbourne Cup is long-term target now. Duke ran well for another 7lb claimer at Southwell (2m) two back. He was 3rd, beaten 4.5l, and still giving 6lbs away to the progressive Caballo De Mar, who has just run a blinder behind the smart French Master in a handicap at Royal Ascot.

Soumillon rides for master trainer Francis Graffard, who is based here. Sahlan looks by far the one to beat in the Al Shaqab silks. The 3yo Wootton Bassett colt won his sole juvenile start by a distance on the AW at Deauville over 7.5f. He stepped up to 1m on his seasonal return/turf debut in a G3 at Longchamp and having taken it up over a furlong out, he was just denied the win in a photo finish to Ridari. Sahlan was outclassed in his last run in the French 2000G, beaten 4.75l back in 9th (Ridari 5th) but it was only his third ever start and they went a fast gallop so it was more of an education for him. He also had a troubled passage in the home straight but still finished his race off well. Sahlan gets class relief today, dropping down to Listed level. You won’t see them go at a mad tempo so I expect to see his tactical speed utilised on the drop back to 7f. The trainer believed this would be his best trip earlier in the season. He has a G1 entry for Glorious Goodwood so he wants to be winning today.

Lake Forest is the class act of the field, 2nd in the Commonwealth Cup last year and quickly turned out after 2.75l 5th in a messy Queen Anne last week. There are some interesting rivals in opposition here, but Lake Forest should be too good for them dropping down to a G3. He is a little dependent on pace to aim at, but Quinault and Lethal Levi are both capable of setting a good tempo. The 4yo William Haggas-trained colt is also very much unexposed over 7f. The first seven runs of his career were over 6f, but he often fluffed the start and got going all too late. I always felt he would be better over a furlong further, but they kept pulling him out of races he was declared for over 7f last season. Finally, he got to stretch out when he landed the valuable Golden Eagle (7.5f) in Australia back in November. He was trademark slow away again but burst through up the rail to nab Lazzat close home. That French runner-up just won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last week, so the form is strong and Lake Forest should really be too good here.

I just think this horse is by far the best horse in the race. He has been reinvented as a sprinter since joining William Haggas, winning both starts this season over 6f at Newmarket despite not striding like a sprinter. It can be hard enough to win from the rear on that course as it is but he swooped late on both occasions. The 4yo colt has clearly proved well handicapped in this division and you have to stay onside with one this progressive looking. I think the stiff 6f at Ascot will absolutely play more to his strengths too. Jockeys often get racing too far out here and the closers come to the fore late on. There isn’t going to be many horses finishing better than him, he should be eating up the ground late on. The only concern would be if the early pace features away from the standside where he is berthed in 23. Valiant Force is in 28 so I’m hoping the early pace will feature on that side for ours.

Donnacha has trained a Royal Ascot winner, twice in fact, both with Portuna Fortuna 2023 and 2024. If he’s going to keep the streak of a winner at the meeting alive then Comanche Brave needs to win the Jersey. I like him a lot. He’s by Wootton Bassett and her dam Ishavana won the Jersey in the 2012 - the last time a filly took this G3 race. Comanche Brave was well held in 5th of 9 in the Irish 2000G won by Fields Of Gold but that was a fair run sent off the largest price of the field at 50/1. The 2nd and 3rd are really good horses. It’s CB’s seasonal return that catches the eye. He split BC Turf winner Henri Matisse, and Arizona Blaze in a 7f G3 at Leopardstown. HM has since won the French Guineas and chased home FOG in the SJP on Tuesday. Arizona Blaze yesterday was just touched off in the Commonwealth Cup. Replication of that form will make CB hard to beat in this. I’m expecting a fast run 7f to really suit him.

This is a drop in class for Al Riffa. He’s competed in G1s in 6 of his last 7 across the globe. He’s also completely unexposed over 12f yet this is the distance he truly wants. His only two runs going this far resulted in him winning the Preis Von Berlin last season and then a follow up poor run in the Arc which we can forgive him for. Prior to those runs over further, you could say his best effort last year came in defeat in the Coral-Eclipse. He finished a 1l 2nd to City Of Troy giving that monster 10lbs despite being 12lbs inferior on the day and Al Riffa also lost a shoe. COT ran below his best on the day albeit, but still a heck of an effort from Al Riffa. He should be a factor in this company and stamina won’t be an issue as he is quite a lazy running type. The first time blinkers should suit him and he was sporting first time cheekpieces when he got close to COT.

Signora is a little short on experience having ran just the once heading into this, but she’s held in such high regard that she was pitched into a G3 on debut at Naas. There she finished 3rd, beaten 2.5l giving experience away to the first two home. The unbeaten winner, Lady Inman, was already making her third start that day and the 2nd, Green Sense, had prior scored on debut. Green Sense reapposes today but is drawn out on the wing, whereas Signora has a lovely draw in 11. Also, let’s review the sectionals the last day. She was last to break and green in rear but she looked to stay on well and her final 3f sectionals confirm she was running faster than Green Sense. She will definitely improve past that one today and the stiff finish at Ascot should really play to her strengths.

Now if you like Tokenomics in RHC like I do, then you should also be betting Serialise for this F&M hcp over the same C&D. This 4yo chestnut filly arrives off back of two solid runs last month. She was 3rd on seasonal return, beaten 1.75l in 7f Cork hcp that Tokenomics landed. The trip looked inadequate for her that day and I obviously feel the snug winner is well handicapped. she was stepped back up to a mile in big field hcp on Irish Guineas weekend at the Curragh. She was handy on rail and travelled stronglywhole way. She was kicking away from them only to be gunned down late by well handicapped English trained colt in Skukuza, who appreciated stepping back up to 1m himself for first time since his 2nd in Britannia at Royal Ascot last season. Serialise looks so well handicapped herself off 85 and straight mile on fast ground is her ideal conditions. Serialise will today be competing exclusively against her own sex for first time this season and I think she is stronger filly too. Also Jessica Harrington knows type of horse needed for this having won it with Villanova Queen in 2023.

The yard won this in 2018 with Settle For Bay and Tokenomics is very similar lightly raced, progressive 4yo. The yard has been plotting him here for a while and they just managed to sneak him in at foot of the weights off 94. On his only start this season in a 7f Cork hcp, Tokenomics was stopped in his run a couple of times before weaving through the pack to win rather snuggly. He was disappointing 8th/16 on his only start in Britain last season at York off 9lb lower mark than today but York doesn’t suit every horse. His successes back home have mainly been over 7f, but 1 of his 3 wins last season came in 9f Leopardstown hcp where he was required to dig deep in the finish so I’m content he actually does have stamina for a RHC. He was unraced as juvenile so I think he is probably stronger now in his second season. He’s got high draw near the two unexposed runners at the top of the market so there should be no excuses for him in that regard. He’s had opportunities to run in big fields which will help him here.

The selection for me is Soprano. She’s some price in here for a horse who already has the form in the book at Royal Ascot. In 2023 she was a 2l 3rd in the Albany (6f) to Porta Fortuna, who is now a multiple time G1 winner. Then last year on the straight mile here, Soprano came through with a strong finish to win the Sandringham off a mark of 100. That was her first attempt at this distance. Soprano continued to run good races across the globe last season, and subsequently proving she was just as effective on a turning mile course. She was kept wide and out of trouble on the turns in a G3 at Deauville last August, eventually stretching away for a clearcut victory. Soprano followed up a month later with a fantastic 1.5l 3rd to old rival Porta Fortuna in a Leopardstown G1 over 1m and a 2nd in a Keeneland G1 followed that to a horse who has now won four in a row, 3 at G1 level. She reappeared in March, making virtually all in Snowdrop at Kempton. I think her form looks really good in comparison to fav.

This big 4yo son of Wootton Bassett has only had 7 runs. He was a rare flat maiden winner for Edward O’Grady when debuting in Ireland last season. He progressed nicely from that, placing twice at G3 level over 10f in Ireland, including a 4.5l 3rd to Jan Brueghel in the International Stakes on the latter occasion. Ecureuil Secret pulled hard early on that occasion and despite the front two pulling well clear, this lad could be spotted rallying well up the inside. He was transferred to Richard Fahey last autumn whilst retained by the same owner. He was handed some more experience before putting away for the season when contesting a Listed race at Deauville, finishing a front-running 0.5l 3rd to a progressive winner. Ecureuil Secret made his seasonal return at the Derby meeting at Epsom. Making his handicap debut and newly gelded, and despite going off 28/1, he dotted up by 4l. On the same card, Jan Brueghel won the G1 Coronation Stakes. Clearly a cut above the grade that day with the run off the bench no barrier to him, he should step forward a lot here if handling faster ground.

I’m taking on Field Of Gold in SJP. This race is contested on round mile. There is short run of 2.5f in home straight. FOG may well possess fastest top speed but the Irish 2000G winner takes a bit of winding up to hit full stride and may run out of racing ground in his closing run. I’m siding with Ruling Court, the 2000G winner at Newmarket, to land SJP. Kieran Shoemark was criticised for ride on FOG, who was staying on for 2nd behind Ruling Court. My view is Ruling Court was deserving winner. The 1st and 2nd were both produced from rear but it was Buick’s mount who quickened up when asked to go and that push button speed will be useful in SJP. FOG did not have same immediate response from other side. Prior to 2000G at Newmarket, Ruling Court also bolted up in Jumeirah 2000G at Meydan. He was superbly produced down outside and extended away in style. His acceleration was instant, much like at Newmarket. Ruling Court missed intended run in Derby at Epsom because of soft ground, but he hasn’t lacked pace at 1m and skipping that race could end up a blessing.

I'll take a chance on Power Blue from Adrian Murray yard. Power Blue, a Space Blues colt, won the Irish flat season opener at the Curragh (5f), a race the yard had also won the past two years with good horses. Bucanero Fuerte won it in 2023 and Arizona Blaze last year. Bucanero Fuerte (now a G1 winner) went on to finish close 3rd in Coventry, and Arizona Blaze a close 3rd in Norfolk. Power Blue was only 3rd next time out when going up to Listed level at the Curragh (5f), but he was still green and giving 5lbs to two good fillies in front of him. The winner, Lady Iman, has since won fillies G3. Power Blue then ran in G3 of his own at the same track lto, stretching out to 6f for first time. He finished a 0.75l 2nd to Albert Einstein, who was around 6/4F in ante post betting for Coventry before a setback. Power Blue was forced to make running and despite being headed, he hit the line strong. He shaped like 6f suited him and that he would do better with other horses to follow, which should be the case in the Coventry.

Kanishka has shown ability without winning in 3 races to date and today looks a good opportunity for him to shed the maiden tag against a field consisting mainly of newcomers. This colt finished 4th in the Brocklesby at Doncaster on his debut. He filled same place from an outside draw at Beverley, again over 5f. He was a major eye-catcher there, keeping on well to clock fastest final 1f at 12.80s. There have also been winners from that novice from the 3rd, 6th and 9th. He looked suited to step up to 6f on his latest start at Ayr but he was simply no match for the Coventry bound, Underwriter. I liked the way he finished his race off behind that easy winner and he should find 7f more to his liking here. He’s a half brother to 7f winner Red Rambler (only start) and his dam was a 7f-10f winner. His talented sire interestingly won his debut at this course.

Hold A Dream, has plenty of talent despite just a maiden win to her name last season and her rail draw should be advantageous as she has the pace to hold her pitch. She has finished her races off well in defeat in the past so I don’t mind her dropping down to a stiff 5f for the first time since her 2nd on debut over this very C&D. She was beaten 4.5l into 5th in a Listed race at HQ lto but that wasn’t a bad effort at all. She had longer priced runners for company who both dropped away for the closers to dominate and the first 4 horses home reflect what was a very strong Listed contest. Prior to that, HAD was a good 2nd to a progressive Irish raider in Lady With The Lamp at Chelmsford, beaten close to the finish by a neck. She had the wide drawn Star Of Mehmas back in 3rd who does reappose here with my selection being 3lbs better off. In her 2yo season, HAD was run down late by Sky Majesty at Ayr. That horse is now a Listed and G2 winner.

Not a great contest here but two time C&D winner, Zivaniya, looks the one to beat off a 127 day break. The only other win for this 5yo came last August at Newcastle (also over 2 miles) off a 118 day break so hopefully he was in need of freshening up after some below par runs over the winter. The Newcastle win and his last victory over C&D came off a mark of 62. He’s down to 59 here. I noticed ATR is predicting a strong pace yet I considered Zivaniya as the only front runner of this now 6 runner contest. It is an apprentice handicap so I’m wary that may not end up being the case but I do like that Liam Wright is the most experienced pilot in this race.