an innocent man

Has been backed from 7/1 and looks the EW play. Both the front two in the market had a fairly tough race at Aintree. Ballyadam ran very well at Cheltenham and meets Langer Dan on 10lb better terms than that race.

Sam Brown may now be 12, but he is in tremendous form. The ground will be perfect, and he is 4lbs well in following his cracking run at Aintree 14 days ago. There is a slight doubt about his stamina, but I think he may get away with it today. Both trainer and jockey are having very good seasons, and I think that Sam Brown will go close today.

I have already selected Sam Brown but I do fancy Slipway. He is inconsistent and ran four poor races before surprising at Kempton lto. Even the trainer was surprised and going up 6lbs is not ideal. However, he may still be reasonably well handicapped, has bags of stamina and, according to the trainer "plenty of class", so his step from C3 to C1 may be manageable. He is a risky bet, no doubt, but with Ben Jones riding - he seems to get horses really running well for him - he is a speculative bet at 28/1.

Clearly, an open race and working out which horse will be at its best today is not easy. Al dancer almost caused a shock in the very competitive Coral Cup over 3m at Kempton,in February, only being caught close home by the rapid finish of Forward Plan. In truth, Al Dancer's optimum trip has always been around 2m 5f. I'm hoping that he may just get the additional 1.5 furlongs well enough today - he went so close over 3m at Kempton - and he really looks like he has been targeted at this race, unlike a few who ran at Cheltenham last month. While Dylan Johnston cannot claim the 5lbs, he is clearly a jockey making good progress, and Al Dancer may go close today.

Fire Flyer beat Secret Squirrel at Ascot and meets him on the same terms today. Fire Flyer was pulled up in his next race and the trainer said he thought that the ground was too tacky for him. He should not have that problem today and trades at 11/1 compared to Secret Squirrel's 11/2. Paul Nicholls has a great record in this race, and Harry Cobden was very positive about his prospects on the Morning Line this morning.

Duffel Coat had some terrific form in 2020, and though he has not won since, he has usually run well. Switched to fences, he has been second thrice - usually a bad sign - and looks genuine enough. He has a good opportunity here; Walk Away was pulled up earlier this month and needs to find his previous useful form, and Bardenstown Lad was 8l behind the selection last time out and meets on the same terms.

Entered for the Derby and cost 650k as a yearling, Highbury will be expected to recoup a small amount of his purchase price. His opposition appears fairly weak and it would be very disappointing should Highbury be unable to score against this opposition.

Clonakilty won a three-horse race readily and has gone up 4lbs. He moves from Class 4 to Class 3 today and with Sean Bowen aboard, can be expected to go close.

He won three in a row on good and good-soft ground before jumping poorly on soft ground at Carlisle and falling in the same race. He has had a break of 186 days and has had Harry Cobden booked for this 10k prize. He will like the ground and, if first enough, may resume his progress. He has now won seven of his 16 races.

Clansman has romped home in his last two races on heavy ground. He faces similar conditions today. He is now ridden by Sam Fielden, who takes 7 lbs off and cancels out the 5lb penalty. Fielden has good stats, so there should be no problem with the change of jockey.

Young Jack is expected to improve over this longer distance, and off a low weight, can go close in an open race.

Git Maker appears to be very well handicapped, judged on his runner-up placement at Cheltenham last month. The winner has subsequently won a Grade 1. Git Maker has just 1lb to concede to some of his opponents today. Providing he gets a good ride and can avoid trouble, he should go very close in this exceptionally competitive event.

Clearly in absolutely cracking form this season and won the competitive Moorbattle hurdle at Kelso. Up 8lbs but may be good enough to go close in a very open race.

Marble Sands has won both his novice chases, and, while he has had a break from chasing, has had a run on the flat in March, so should be ready for this test. Nick Slatter is unfamiliar to me but a 22% strike rate impresses me.

Royal Mer has hit top form and is still well handicapped (officially 3lb well in on ratings) and can go very close again. Jack Tudor may not have a great strike rate, but he rides a lot of horses who are not well-fancied, and he can steer Royal Mer to another win tomorrow.

Like many of his opponents today, Flamelco is inconsistent. Though joint top weight, he may be reasonably well handicapped, and the 3lbs that Caolin Quinn takes off could be enough to swing this race his way.

Master Dancer had a two month break before running well at Huntingdon last month. He may come on from that and has good prospects in this race.

One win over hurdles, in April 2023, off 88. Poor runs in chases but reverts to the hurdles today off a mark of 85. It's a speculative bet, but may be worth a small wager at 25/1.

Lady Adare ran poorly lto, but previously had good form, including in a Grade 2 (which this is, also). She may return to her previous good form, and, if so, she may be able to give away the weight to her rivals.

Circuit Breaker has been a massive gamble from 10/1 to around 3/1, while Sweet Fantasy has drifted from 7/2 to 7/1. This is an open race, but Sweet Fantasy appears to have significantly improved for the transfer to James Owen's yard. James Owen has a 23% strike rate in NH races and a 24% win rate on the flat. Aidan Keeley has done really well on Owen's horses. While the big drift is usually a bad sign, I will take a chance that he is well-handicapped due to his recent improvement over the jumps.

Moved from Aidan O'Brien and has been gelded. Trainer takes this horse 400 miles to Kempton Park and books Jim Crowley (top 5 strike rate at Kempton). At 25/1 or more, perhaps worth a speculative bet.

I See You Well is probably on the downgrade, but many of his opponents have fairly big question marks against them. He has a good record at this course, so I will take a chance that he will run well today, and it may be good enough to secure victory.

The form of his wins in January has been franked, and though he has gone up 14lb since then, he may remain quite well handicapped. The jockey has won 4 of her 8 races this season, so should give him a good chance today.