an innocent man

Always going well when winning over C/D in November. Then ran twice over 2 miles, I think to protect his mark. Returns to 3m on 4lb higher mark, which doesn't seem too much of an increase. Still very much at the right side of the handicap and I think he is very likely to go very close.

My main selection is Chance Another One but I think that Katate Dori has a serious chance of repeating last year's success in this race. Up 11lb for a 15l win, he has clearly been targeted for this with a perfect 2nd place last time out. Trainer and jockey have terrific strike rates and should go very close on Saturday.

Grand Albert has couple of promising races lately, and the extra distance may be of benefit to him. Handles soft and heavy ground well. With Sean Bowen riding, a good ride can be anticipated and he has possibilities at around 12/1.

Sam Brown is now 14 years old, but 5 opponents are also 10 years old or more. Sam Brown handles very soft and heavy ground, also stays 3m 2f, so he should cope well with very soft/heavy conditions tomorrow. Jockey takes off 7lb, and jockey has a 17% win record over two seasons, so obviously talented. While the trainer also has Credo running, I think that Sam Brown has a reasonable EW chance.

Faded late in soft ground on hurdles debut. Trying a longer trip tomorrow, presumably the trainer thinks this trip will be more suitable. Not sure that the form of AfancyGetaway or Nofliesonher, is that good, so I think this one has an EW chance. I don't think the favourite is a 1/5 shot!

There appears to be a persistent tip for this horse to go close today, so at 9/1 in a six runner race, I will join in the El Fabiola club!

Carrying just 10-1, because of Charlie Magg's 5lb claim, the 7lb he went up for his recent win, is largely offset by Charlie's claim. Can go close if he jumps well.

Hard to fancy on his most recent run, but he finished 2nd in this race last year off 109, and today runs off 103. The jockey appears to be decent (10%). Four of the five horses' best runs were on soft ground.

At least the ground at Musselburgh should be good/soft, so probably more horses will run to form here. I like Lord, who is a winning machine and compared to his opponents, some of which are fairly inexperienced, has a very good strike rate. Ground should suit, course should also suit, trainer has good track record. He does have to concede weight to the whole field, but he may be abke to do so and I think he will go close.