bappleby17
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21 March 2025
19:45 Andorra v Latvia
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
Just 1 of the previous 9 matches between Andorra and Latvia saw both teams score. That run includes three consecutive goalless draws and neither are clinical in front of goal.
Draw & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@5.75
Lose
-50
Three of the last six matches between Andorra and Latvia ended in goalless draws. Andorra have failed to score in 8 of their last 9, the exception being vs San Marino, and Latvia scored just 5 in their last 8.
Andorra (AH) 0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.90
Lose
-50
Latvia have failed to win a single away match since 2022, a run of games that includes a draw away at Andorra. 4 of the last 6 h2h games ended level which would be enough for the hosts.
No Goalscorer
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
It's hard to see where the goals are coming from between two notoriously goal shy sides. Andorra have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 matches. Between them, they've had three 0-0 draws in the last six h2h meetings.
Draw #0-0
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Not a huge price but it's unsurprising given the lack of goals between the sides. Andorra have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 and 3 of the previous 6 matches between these teams ended 0-0.
19:45 England v Albania
England
Very short price at 1/12 but it's tough to look past England in this one. They've been so dominant in qualifying for so long and will want to start well under Tuchel. They've won 6/6 matches vs Albania in history, scoring 19 and conceding once.
Jude Bellingham
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@9.00
Open
0
Jude Bellingham looks decent value to net first at 8/1 this evening. The midfielder has scored some big goals for England in recent times and will want to start well under Tuchel. Has 38 goals across his last 2 seasons for club and country.
England #3-0
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
England won 5-0 last time they met Albania and while I don't think this will be as simple, I expect them to be too strong. They've won 6/6 h2h matches and had some big wins over interim manager Lee Carsley. Albania have 5 losses in their last 9.
19:45 Malta v Finland
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.55
Lose
-50
The last 3 h2h matches between Malta and Finland all had 3+ goals. Finland have seen 8 of their last 11 matches have over 2.5 goals with plenty conceded and Malta have found their scoring boots in recent times.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-50
3 of the previous 5 h2h matches between Malta and Finland saw btts, including all 3 meetings in Valletta. Finland have had some high scoring recent matches including the likes of 4-2 vs Portugal, 4-1 vs Wales and 2-2 vs Scotland.
Finland & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
Finland's recent form isn't great but they've been playing some tougher sides and they've still been scoring goals. Malta concede a lot of goals at home with their only recent clean sheets here against the likes of Andorra, Liechtenstein and Moldova. All 3 previous h2h matches in this country saw btts and Finland have the quality to edge it.
Finland (AH) -0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.93
Win
47
Finland have won their last 4 matches in a row against Malta including a 5-0 win most recently. They bost better more experienced players including the likes of Pairinen, Kallman and Pohjanpalo.
Finland #2-1
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
I think Finland will edge this and get their qualification start off to the ideal start. They have a good record against Malta, winning 4 of the 5 h2h matches, with their last two visits here both ending in 2-1 wins. A repeat looks about right here too.
19:45 Newcastle Falcons v Sale Sharks
Newcastle Falcons
To Win
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Newcastle have won 3 of their last 5 and that would've been 4/5 had they not conceded a last min try to lose 19-17 to Sale last month. The Sharks have just 5 wins in 20 on the road so I like the Falcons at 9/2.
Newcastle Falcons 13.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Sale have won just 5 of 20 on the road and look far too short with the bookies today. They've also lost on 3 of their last 4 trips to the Falcons and have covered this spread just once here since 2008.
19:45 Northampton v Leicester
Leicester
To Win
50 WIN
@3.10
Win
105
Leicester have the third best road form in the league and they put 54pts past Northampton last time the sides met. The hosts lost to Ealing Trailfinders of the league below last time out at home.
Leicester 6.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Leicester sit 9pts above Northampton in the table and can go up to 2nd with a bonus point win. They've won 7 of the last 10 H2H matches between the two teams.
19:45 Poland v Lithuania
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.60
Lose
-50
Poland's last 4 matches have all been high scoring games with scorelines of 1-2, 5-1, 3-3 and 1-3. They face a Lithuania side who have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches too.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.37
Lose
-50
10 of Poland's previous 11 matches saw btts and they've conceded a whopping 14 goals across their last 5 games alone. Lithuania have seen btts in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Poland & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-50
Poland are the better of the sides but they've been conceding a lot of goals of late, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 11. Lithuania, despite 5 consecutive defeats, have scored in 4 of those games.
Sebastian Szymanski
First Goalscorer
Sebastian Szymanski is a man in good goalscoring form of late, including his brace of impressive goals for Fenerbahce against Rangers in the Europa League a week ago. He starts as part of the front 3 here and has 2 goals in his last 5 appearances for Poland.
19:45 Romania v Bosnia Herzegovina
Romania (AH) -0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.93
Lose
-50
Bosnia have had a difficult run of late, losing 9 of their last 11 matches on the road including 7-0 vs Germany, 5-2 vs Netherlands and 4-1 vs Luxembourg. Romania have won 5 in a row heading into this.
Florin Tanase
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
Florin Tanase has had a prolific career, netting over 100 career goals for club and country including high scoring spells at FCSB. He starts as the central striker this evening and looks a good price at 9/1.
Romania #1-0
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
I'm not expecting a classic game but it's Romania who have the edge in my eyes having won their last 5 on the spin. Bosnia have won just 3 of their last 20, 2 of which were against Liechtenstein, and they've failed to score on several occasions.
19:35 Cardiff v Lions
Lions
To Win
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Cardiff have lost their last 5 in a row and they've been conceding a lot of points of late. We saw in the Six Nations the state of Welsh rugby right now and this is a tough ask against a Lions side who have won 3/3 previous H2H games against them.
Lions 1.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
Lions have won all 3 previous meetings vs Cardiff and all of those victories came by double digit margins. Cardiff have conceded 20+ points in 5 games in a row, losing them all.
Over 44.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The three previous matches between these sides all had 47+ points in. Lions have in fact seen their last 6 in a row finish above this spread and Cardiff have conceded over 150 points in their last 5 matches, including 42 vs Leinster last time out.
19:35 Glasgow v Munster
Munster
To Win
50 WIN
@4.20
Lose
-50
Munster look good value at 16/5 against a team they've had recent success against with 2 wins in 3. Edinburgh lost 32-31 last time out at home to Ospreys and with 4 losses in 8 don't look in great form.
Munster 8.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Glasgow have covered this spread in just 1 of their last 7 H2H matches vs Munster and they tend to be close games. Munster have won 2 of the last 3. Both have W4 L4 in their last 8 so could only be a few points in it.
19:00 Burundi v Ivory Coast
Burundi
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Burundi sit just one place behind Ivory Coast in Group A, picking up 7pts from 4 games and averaging 2 goals per game. Ivory Coast have lost their last 3 road games in a row, failing to score in any of them.
19:00 Ghana v Chad
Draw
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Chad are an improving side who have drawn 4 of their last 8 matches, including against good sides like DR Congo and Zambia. Ghana have won just 1 of their last 9 games, drawing 4, so 16/1 looks a big price for a draw.
17:45 5:45 Dundalk
Elegant Grand
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
Adrian Murray's yard are absolutely flying right now with several impressive winners and that makes Elegant Grand an intriguing prospect at 14/1. Was sold for a big sum as a yearling but seemingly unfancied since. It's a wide open race though with the two short priced horses both beaten favourites last time out.
17:00 Cyprus v San Marino
Cyprus
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Tough to look past Cyprus here. They've had some heavy wins vs San Marino in the past, winning 7/7 total H2H games and all of the last 4 by 3 or more goals.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
7 of Cyprus' last 8 matches finished above this spread and that includes a 4-1 friendly win at San Marino last year. The last 4 H2H games in a row all had 3+ goals.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Only 1 of the last 7 H2H meetings between Cyprus and San Marino saw both teams score. The visitors are notorious for their lack of goals, drawing a blank in 16 of 19 on the road.
Ioannis Pittas
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@3.75
Win
138
Ioannis Pittas is bang in form right now, netting 7 goals across his last 12 matches. He's been in good form for Cyprus recently too, bagging 6 in his last 17.
Cyprus #4-0
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
Cyprus have won 4 matches in a row vs San Marino with scorelines of 4-0, 4-1, 5-0 and 3-0. The visitors score very few goals and are far less experienced than the Cypriots. Expect a routine home win.
Subtotal-899
20 March 2025
19:45 Austria v Serbia
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
The last 3 H2H matches between the sides all saw over 2.5 goals including a 2-1 win for Austria in 2024. Austria have seen 35 goals in their last 10 home matches.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
5 of Austria's last 7 home matches saw both teams score, including a 2-1 friendly win vs Serbia last year. The visitors have goals in their side with the likes of Jovic and Vlahovic.
19:45 Bulgaria v Rep of Ireland
Draw
50 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-50
Four of the last five meetings between Bulgaria and Ireland ended level and there's very little to separate them. Bulgaria have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches.
19:45 Greece v Scotland
Draw
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
Unlikely to be much between these two sides. Both in decent form, Greece winning 5 of their last 6 in Nations League and Scotland picking up 7pts in their last 3 games. Both strongest defensively and I think a 0-0 or 1-1 likely in a cagey first leg.
19:45 Kosovo v Iceland
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Iceland's last 5 matches have seen 21 goals in them, an average of over 4 per game. 5 of Kosovo's last 6 matches went above this over 2.5 spread.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.85
Win
43
Kosovo have scored 10 and conceded 9 in their last 7, showing an average of over a goal per game at both ends. Iceland meanwhile have scored 10 and conceded 17 across the same period.
19:45 Slovakia v Slovenia
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
These sides drew 2-2 last time they met and both have goals in them. 3 of Slovakia's last 4 and 3 of Slovenia's last 5 matches had 3+ goals suggesting 13/8 is a profitable play.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-50
Both teams have scored in 3 of Slovakia's last 4 including a 2-2 draw vs Sweden and 3-1 win at Azerbaijan. The last two H2H meetings between the sides also ended in score draws.
19:45 Ukraine v Belgium
Belgium (AH) -0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.90
Lose
-50
Belgium's recent form has been very poor but they do have good quality and have so much more to offer. De Bruyne, Lukaku, Trossard and Tielemans all start this evening and their squad is more talented than Ukraine. I expect them to take a lead back to Belgium.
18:00 Brynas IF vs IF Malmo Redhawks
IF Malmo Redhawks
Money Line
50 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-50
Brynas had a much better regular season record but their form is very concerning with 7 losses in 10 and 4 in a row. Malmo meanwhile have won 5 in a row heading into this.
IF Malmo Redhawks 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.75
Lose
-50
Malmo have covered this spread in 7 of their last 9 matches vs Brynas. They've played more recently with their series win vs Rogle 2-0 and Brynas have lost 4 in a row heading into this.
18:00 Lulea HF vs Vaxjo Lakers HC
Lulea HF
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
Lulea finished 21pts above Vaxjo in the regular season. They scored more goals, conceded fewer, and won the last H2H game 3-1.
Lulea HF -1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@3.30
Win
115
Lulea ran out 3-1 winners last time these sides met and they're a big price here. They had 21pts more than Vaxjo in the regular season, scored 30 more goals and conceded 3 fewer.
Over 4.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
All of Lulea's previous 8 matches has 4+ goals in them and 6 of those games had 5+. 4 of Vaxjo's last 5 matches heading into this have finished above this spread.
18:00 Valerenga vs Storhamar
Over 5.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
31 goals have been scored in Valerenga's last 5 home matches at an average of over 6 per game. Storhamar are very free scoring themselves, netting 41 themselves alone in their last 10 road games.
17:45 5:45 Chepstow
Hurricane Pat
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.80
Win
40
Won well on debut at Sandown Park in November and 3rd place at the same venue earlier this year wasn't a bad effort either. Looks the pick of a fairly mediocre bunch.
Subtotal-156
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