bappleby17
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Estimated Prizes
this month
£70
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this month
bappleby17's Tips History
27 July 2024
00:07 TEX Rangers @ TOR Blue Jays
Over 8.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
5 of Tampa Bay's previous 6 matches finished above this spread including wins of 13-0 and 9-1. 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 on the road had 9+ runs too.
Subtotal46
26 July 2024
23:50 CIN Reds @ TB Rays
TB Rays
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.92
Lose
-50
Tampa Bay have three wins more than Cincinnati this year and are in good form. They've won 4 of their last 6 including wins of 13-0 and 9-1, while it's only 2 wins in 6 for the Reds.
TB Rays -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-50
The last two H2H meetings between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati saw wins of 8-0 and 10-0 to the Rays. They were 13-0 winners against Toronto last time out and have won 4 of their last 6 by 2+ runs.
Over 7.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
23:19 Race 10 Saratoga
The Manticore
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-50
23:14 Race 2 Penn National
Relishment
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-50
23:05 Race 4 Colonial Downs
Flat Cap
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-50
20:00 Hull KR v London Broncos
London Broncos
To Win
50 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-50
London Broncos look worth a punt at 25/1. They ran Leeds so close recently, leading 16-11 before eventually losing by 1pt and they've beaten Hull KR twice in the last four H2H matches.
London Broncos 36.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Broncos have covered this spread in their last 4 matches in a row and they have more quality than this suggests. Previous 4 H2H matches split 2-2.
Over 50.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
The two previous H2H meetings between the sides each saw 60+ points in them. Conditions will suit open attacking rugby this evening and Broncos have conceded over 140+ more points than any other Super League side.
19:30 Lechia Gdansk v Motor Lublin
Draw
Lechia's last 4 consecutive matches have all ended in 1-1 draws. Motor edged both H2H matches 1-0 last year despite Lechia topping the division. I expect another close one here with little in it.
19:15 Levski Sofia v Botev Vratsa
Draw
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Both H2H matches last year ended in narrow 1-0 wins to Levski and they look too short here. The draw at 7/1 appeals more. Levski have drawn 3 of their last 4 and Botev will play for a point.
19:15 Nyiregyhaza v Gyor Eto FC
Draw
These two were comfortably the best sides in the Hungarian second tier last year as they both gained promotion. 8 of the last 9 H2H matches between them ended in a single goal or level.
19:10 7:10 Cork
Samrogue
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 21.00 takenBOGAThis tip was used on Horse Racing 4Fold Acca.
@29.00
Win
1400
This race looks wide open and 20/1 shot Samrogue looks a good option to me. The 6yo is a previous winner at Cork and over this distance. Most of recent work has come at Dundalk including three top 3s and a win in last six.
19:00 Kotwica Kolobrzeg v GKS Tychy
Draw
Kotwica and Tychy both drew their opening matches this term and there isn't much between them. Kotwica have had 3 of their last 5 end level in total, Tychy 2 in 5.
18:55 6:55 Kilbeggan
Arcland
Daily Racing
Had a year off prior to an 8th placed effort at this venue recently. Will be better for that outing and best last year came over this C&D. Has an outside chance.
18:35 6:35 Cork
Magic Force
Daily Racing
Magic Force makes its Irish debut here and looks an appealing price at 25/1. Has had impressive 2nd placed finishes at Salisbury and Lingfield so far and looks to have good pace.
18:00 Mark Williams v Liam Graham
Liam Graham
Win Match
50 WIN
@15.00
Open
0
Liam Graham has some form heading into this, unbeaten in his last two, and could cause a surprise. Mark Williams has only 1 win in his last 4 and if things don't start going his way then he can lose interest quickly.
Liam Graham 3.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@2.50
Open
0
Mark Williams has failed to cover this spread in any of his previous 12 matches. Liam Graham has covered this in 9 of his last 10 too.
Liam Graham to win 5-4
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@51.00
Open
0
50/1 for a narrow Liam Graham win is a huge price and worth a small punt. He's unbeaten in his last two and continues to improve. Mark Williams has only 1 win in 4 so not at his best recently.
18:00 Matthew Selt v Ian Burns
Ian Burns to win 5-0
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@51.00
Open
0
Ian Burns is in good form, losing just 1 of his last 6 and that including a whitewash win. Matthew Selt has only 1 win in 7 and we've already seen a 5-0 surprise today with Miah beating Brecel
18:00 Ricky Walden v Liam Davies
Liam Davies to win 5-0
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@71.00
Open
0
Liam Davies has 4 wins in his last 7 matches and faces Ricky Walden who has shown huge inconsistencies this year including some heavy defeats. 70/1 here a huge price.
18:00 Sonderjyske v Lyngby
Draw
Both sides lost their opener without scoring. They've often been very evenly matched, with 5 draws in the last 10 H2H matches between them and another stalemate wouldn't be a surprise here.
17:45 5:45 Kilbeggan
Ixigreczed
Daily Racing
Ixigreczed is 3lb lower from previous outing at Kilbeggan last month and had a good 3rd at Limerick earlier in the year. Looks an open field and worth a poke at 22/1 over a more favoured distance.
17:15 5:15 Kilbeggan
Fremantle Doctor
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Fremantle Doctor has been backed in from 33s to 22s and has an outside chance here. Two mid placed outings at Fairyhouse and Punchestown but room for improvement and Harvey is a good fit.
11:00 Parramatta Eels v Melbourne Storm
Parramatta Eels
To Win
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
I can't resist a poke on Parramatta Eels at 6/1 in this one. Form has deserted them of late but they often save their best for Melbourne, winning 4 of the last 7 H2H matches and will have a loud home backing this evening.
Parramatta Eels 18.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Melbourne are an impressive outfit but it's rare that they win by huge margins. Indeed, of their last 10 H2H matches they've only covered this spread once. Parramatta have 4 wins in the last 7 H2H meetings too.
Over 53.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Melbourne's last 3 road matches all saw 54+ points scored in them and that included a trip to Wests Tigers, where the table toppers shipped 28pts to the basement side. Parramatta have the NRL's second worst defence this season.
09:00 Anthony Hamilton v Gong Chenzhi
Gong Chenzhi
Win Match
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
Hamilton has suffered some severe defeats in recent times including a run of 4 matches out of 5 where he didn't win a single frame. He's an experienced player but form is an issue and Chenzhi continues to improve. I like the Chinese player at 2/1.
Gong Chenzhi 1.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
Just 6 of Hamilton's last 20 matches saw him win by two frames or more. Chenzhi is rarely beaten by many and has been unfortunate to lose out in a number of close final frame deciders of late, but he beat Greene 3-1 in his last outing in the Championship league and has good quality.
Gong Chenzhi to win 5-3
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Chenzhi continues to improve and has had good wins over the likes of Brown and Greene this term. Hamilton's form has been very mixed and with Chenzhi enjoying home advantage here he'll threaten to spring a surprise.
09:00 Chris Wakelin v Thor Chuan Leong
Thor Chuan Leong
Win Match
50 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-50
Write off Thor Chuan Leong at your peril. The Malaysian had an excellent 2023 but has found things tougher in this calendar year. He's lost a few tight ones but does possess quality and with Wakelin short of form and winless in 4, he looks worth a few quid.
Thor Chuan Leong 2.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
H2H matches between these two have always been competitive with Wakelin generally coming out on top by the odd frame. Chuan Leong continues to improve though while Wakelin has lost 4 in a row and not beaten a top 80 player since March.
Thor Chuan Leong to win 5-3
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@15.00
Lose
-50
Wakelin's lack of form makes him unappealing here, winless in 4 and showing some concerning errors creeping into his game. Chuan Leong has only 2 losses in 5, both of which were tight defeats and he continues to improve.
09:00 Elliot Slessor v Manasawin Phetmalaikul
Manasawin Phetmalaikul
Win Match
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
Manasawin Phetmalaikul has continued to improve and could produce a shock win here. In January he led Mark Allen 4-3 before losing in a final frame decider and has run others close of late. Slessor's recent form has deserted him somewhat including a 3-0 loss to Carty last time out.
Manasawin Phetmalaikul 3.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
Phetmalaikul only needs to win two frames here and he certainly has the quality to do so. Not too long ago he loss narrowly 5-4 to Mark Allen and Slessor has recent defeats against Carty, Page and Heathcote.
Manasawin Phetmalaikul to win 5-3
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@31.00
Lose
-50
Slessor has been very inconsistent throughout the 2024 campaign and even in a game he should win, odds look far too short. His opponent has produced his best snooker this year without quite reaping the rewards, but he's a canny operator and has the ability to surprise. A 5-3 win for the Thai player at 30/1 appeals.
09:00 New Zealand Warriors v Wests Tigers
Wests Tigers
To Win
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Wests Tigers look worth a go at 7/2 this morning. Both these sides have similar form with 2 wins in their last 6 and both have defensive issues. Wests beat Parramatta on the road in matchday 4 and NZ don't have a good home record.
Wests Tigers 12.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
New Zealand Warriors have only 1 win in their last 5, so a spread of +12.5 for Wests looks good. The visitors have 2 wins in 6 and covered this spread in another of those games too.
Over 48.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
These two sides have two of the worst defensive records in the NRL, with Wests Tigers shipping an impressively bad 538pts in 18 matches. They've conceded 40+ in their last 4 and score plenty too.
09:00 Tian Pengfei v Farakh Ajaib
Farakh Ajaib
Win Match
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
Farakh Ajaib will be full of confidence after breezing through qualifying last month with a string of impressive 4-1 and 4-2 wins. Pengfei has won only 8 of 20 meanwhile.
Farakh Ajaib 2.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@1.65
Lose
-50
Pengfei has won only 2 of his last 8 matches, both of which were against players ranked outside the top 100. Ajaib meanwhile is full of confidence after beating the likes of O'Sullivan and Boiko at qualifying school recently.
Farakh Ajaib to win 5-3
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
Tian Pengfei has won just two matches since January and both were against players outside the top 100. Ajaib has 9 wins during that period and with most of them coming last month, he's the form player. I'm backing him to edge this 5-3
09:00 Xu Si v Jiang Jun
Jiang Jun
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses for Jiang Jun in his last 7 so form is good and confidence is high. Xu Si has failed to win any of his last 6 meanwhile with 3 draws and 3 losses.
Jiang Jun 1.50
Handicap Betting
50 WIN
@1.85
Win
43
These two Chinese players are very evenly matched and it promises to be a tight and engaging encounter. Jun is the man with the better form, losing just 2 of his last 7 while Si is winless in 6.
Jiang Jun to win 5-3
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Xu Si is winless in his last 6 including a 10-3 loss to Alfie Burden in WC qualifying. Jun had 3 good wins in qualifying meanwhile and he has the game to surprise Si in my eyes. 5-3 looks a good option.
Subtotal1650
25 July 2024
18:44 Race 2 Saratoga
Condiment Girl
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
Twice victorious already this year with excellent wins at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs. Disappointed at Belmont a month ago but has the quality to bounce back from that and looks the stand out.
18:30 Race 1 Colonial Downs
Freedom Road
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Very impressive 4 year old gelding who has four victories and a 2nd placed finish in last 5 starts. Golden Candy the only real threat but 7yo seems to be a little past its best.
18:30 Race 3 Delaware Park
Mischiefness
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Win
69
3 year old filly has shown some inconsistencies but if on form here then should be far too strong. Excellent win here in June and backed up with a strong 3rd of 12 also at Delaware Park with a stronger field.
18:20 Race 2 Thistledown
Tahlequah Joe
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.91
Win
46
Has raced here three times over the past couple of months including an impressive victory and a narrow miss last time out when 2nd. Not a huge amount of quality elsewhere and Tahlequah Joe has shown the best pace previously.
17:00 FC Iberia 1999 v FK Partizani
Draw
These sides met in 2022 European qualifying and there was very little to separate between them, eventually needing penalties. They're evenly matched and after similar seasons I could see a first leg draw.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
There were just 2 goals across the 2 games when these sides met in 2022 qualifying. Neither are the most attacking, with just 10 goals across Partizani's last 7.
17:00 FC Ilves v FK Austria Vienna
Draw
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Ilves have drawn 4 of their last 10 and there doesn't seem a huge amount between the two. Austria Vienna are unbeaten in 4 on the road but Tampere isn't the easiest place to win.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.65
Win
32
Ilves' last 6 consecutive matches all saw over 2.5 goals with a total of 29 at an average of almost 5 per game. Austria Vienna have seen 23 scored in their last 5.
17:00 FC Milsami v FC Astana
Draw
Milsami have drawn 3 of the last 4 including a 0-0 scoreline against Zhodino last time out at home. Astana are a well versed European side and know how to stay solid in the first leg to set them up for the home leg.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.70
Win
35
12 of Astana's last 17 matches have seen under 2.5 goals scored in them. Milsami drew 0-0 against Zhodino last time out and 3 of their last 4 ended below this spread.
17:00 FK Sumqayit v MOL Fehervar FC
Draw
50 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-50
Sumqayif have been solid at home, winning 4 and drawing 1 in their last 5 and conceding just 1. Fehervar also have W4 D1 in their last 5 and they look evenly matched.
17:00 FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Pafos FC
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Paphos shipped 8 goals in their two legs against Elfsborg and they face a strong Zalgiris side. In their last 20 home matches, they've seen 64 goals scored.
17:00 Mlada Boleslav v FK Transinvest
Mlada Boleslav
50 WIN
@1.11
Win
5
Transinvest have had a poor year and sit 8th in the Lithuanian top flight. Mlada have won their last 5 in a row at home and scored plenty.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-50
Mlada's last 5 home matches have seen 17 goals scored at an average of 3.4, of which they've netted 14. Transinvest have seen 16 goals in their last 6.
17:00 Noah v Sliema Wanderers
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
5 of Noah's last 6 matches saw 3+ goals in them including their 2-1 win at Shkendija last time out. Silema are a weaker side and concede a few.
17:00 Wisla Krakow v Rapid Vienna
Draw
50 WIN
@3.90
Lose
-50
Wisla did well to comfortably breeze past Llapi in the previous round and are a solid side at home. Rapid the stronger of the sides but not the best road form. 5 of their last 14 ended in draws and they'll take a point back to Austria.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Rapid's last 5 matches have seen a combined 25 goals at an average of 5 goals per game. Wisla have seen 23 in their last 6 themselves at almost 4 per match.
16:00 KuPS Kuopio v Tromso
Draw
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
KuPS are strong at home, losing just 3 times in their last 20 home matches. Tromso are in a good run too, with 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 at the road and both have been solid in defence. I can't split them.
Subtotal175
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