bappleby17
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bappleby17's Tips History
15 September 2024
14:00 Tottenham v Arsenal
Over 5.00
Total Cards
50 WIN
@1.70
Win
35
Last year's match at the Emirates had 7 yellow cards and there's no love lost. The likes of Partey, Havertz, Bentancur, Bissouma, Romero all love flying into tackles and will want to stamp their authority on the game.
Subtotal35
14 September 2024
20:00 Bournemouth v Chelsea
Chelsea
Chelsea have started well under Maresca and have lots of good attacking options. Bournemouth have good options in attack but defensively against the likes of Palmer, Madueke and others I could see them struggle.
17:30 Aston Villa v Everton
Aston Villa
Everton have been so poor in losing 3/3 and this is a tricky trip to Villa Park. The hosts are so solid under Emery and the likes of Rogers, Watkins and Duran are bound to cause problems. Onana too against his former side.
15:00 Brighton v Ipswich
Draw
Brighton often tend to do better against the bigger sides and drop points against weaker teams, as they did against Sheff Utd last season for example. Ipswich played well in their recent draw vs Fulham and have the quality to get a result today.
15:00 Crystal Palace v Leicester
Draw
50 WIN
@4.00
Win
150
Leicester will know their away form must improve if they're to stay up and a decent chance to get a result here. Palace don't look as strong as they were last term and question marks over their defence after losing some important names. I could see a score draw.
15:00 Fulham v West Ham
West Ham
West Ham have signed very well this year and had a good win at fellow London side Crystal Palace. I think man for man they have a stronger side than Fulham and more goalscoring options with the likes of Bowen, Paqueta, Summerville etc.
15:00 Liverpool v Nottm Forest
Liverpool
50 WIN
@1.22
Lose
-50
Arne Slot's tenure at Liverpool has started well and they should be too strong here. Forest have made a good unbeaten start but against far weaker side and tough to see them get anything today.
Over 10.50
Total Corners
50 WIN
@1.78
Lose
-50
Dating back to last season, Liverpool's last 9 consecutive Premier League matches at Anfield had 11+ corners. That totalled a combined 114 corners and Forest are a side that create opportunities themselves too.
15:00 Man City v Brentford
Man City
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Tough to look past City here. They've been dominant in their opening three wins and Haaland is scoring for fun with 7 in 3. Brentford don't have great away form.
12:30 AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons
Draw
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
There's no love lost between these two sides and often there's very little to separate them. 4 of the last 9 head to head matches ended level and both side will understand the importance of avoiding defeat.
12:30 Millwall v Luton
Draw
50 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-50
Millwall and Luton have just a win between them this season and I think that might remain after this one. 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings between the two sides ended level and neither have a huge amount of goals in their side.
12:30 Southampton v Man Utd
Man Utd
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
Southampton have been poor in losing 3/3 and I don't give them much hope here. This is the type of game Utd prefer, away from home with the pressure off and more space to play fluid counter attacking football for Garnacho, Fernandes and co.
Over 10.50
Total Corners
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Southampton's opening 3 PL matches have seen 39 corners at an average of 13 per game. Man Utd saw 15 corners in their opener against Fulham and there should be plenty of attacking football on show.
Subtotal180
13 September 2024
20:00 Biarritz v Oyonnax
Oyonnax
To Win
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Oyonnax have spent big money in a bid for immediate promotion back to Top 14 and they have class across the pitch. Biarritz have two good wins to start the season but both have been tight and I worry about the match up in the pack this evening.
Oyonnax 3.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Biarritz had a poor campaign last year as they narrowly avoided relegation to the National League and question marks remain despite 2 narrow wins to start this year. Oyonnax have spent more money and have stronger options as a result. Could be a tight one but the visitors edge it for me.
18:30 Dax v Colomiers
Colomiers 7.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.83
Win
41
Colomiers scored more points and conceded fewer than Dax in D2 last year despite finishing below them and their underlying stats have remained strong here as both sides have 2/2 wins to start the campaign. Dax have defensive issues too having shipped 29+ in 3 of their last 4.
18:30 Mont de Marsan v Agen
Agen
To Win
50 WIN
@5.00
Win
200
Mont de Marsan have won only 2 of their last 5 at home and were well beaten at Montauban last time out. Agen suffered a poor loss against Stade Nicois and both will be desperate to get off the mark. Agen have 3 wins in 5 H2Hs.
Agen 11.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
Across this season and the end of last, Mont de Marsan have managed just 2 wins in their last 9 matches. Agen have a dominant H2H record too with 12 wins in 16 matches.
18:30 Nice v Soyaux Angouleme
Soyaux Angouleme
To Win
50 WIN
@2.40
Win
70
Angouleme have won 5 of their previous 7 matches including their latest road game at Aurillac. Nice lost 13-9 to Beziers last time out on the road and their offense is yet to click this term.
Soyaux Angouleme 4.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
Nice have only managed an average of 12.5pts per game to start the season compared to 28pts per game for Angouleme and that could make this tricky for them. They'll be backed by the home crowd but the visitors actually have 5 wins in their last 7 and are dangerous.
18:30 Provence v Montauban
Montauban
To Win
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
9/1 is a big price for Montauban here. They impressed in a 35-17 win against Mont de Marsan last time out and Provence have only managed a narrow win vs Agen and defeat to Grenoble so far.
Montauban 19.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Montauban have 3 wins in their last 5 including the back end of last season and they actually beat Provence both times when these sides met in 2023. Huge spread with Provence winning and losing a game by 3pt margins this season so far.
18:00 Aurillac v Grenoble
Grenoble
To Win
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
We've seen a far higher frequency of away wins to start the D2 season and it's why Grenoble are only 5/4 today. They've won 2/2 to begin the season and I think they might edge a narrow one against an Aurillac side that have lost 2/2.
Subtotal241
02 September 2024
20:30 Elche v Cordoba
Draw
Cordoba have lost only 4 of their last 20 matches and they've turned into something of draw specialists more recently with 3 in their last 5. Elche have started the season wtih three consecutive 1-0 defeats and although they'll expect to improve upon that soon, they feel too short at 5/4 so the draw is preferable.
20:00 Salford City v Milton Keynes Dons
Draw
Neither side has started the season well. Salford are winless in five matches, scoring just a single goal, while MK Dons have picked up just a solitary win, losing their other three. With both managers and players struggling the most important thing will be not to lose and in a game of few goals, the draw looks appealing.
19:30 Universitatea Cluj v Dinamo Bucharest
Over 2.50
Total Goals
Universitatea Cluj and Dinamo Bucuresti played out an entertaining 3-3 draw here when they met in May and both are in good goalscoring form. Bucuresti have seen 26 goals scored in their 7 league matches so far, an average of over 3.5 per match, while Cluj have netted 12 in 7.
19:00 Amed SK v Kocaelispor
Draw
Two decent outfits with very little to separate them as the odds suggest. Kocaelispor are the form side having won their last 4, the latest 3 of which were narrow wins. Amed were superb in promotion last year and have lost just 2 of 20, drawing 3 of their last 5
15:35 3:35 Chepstow
Navello
Daily Racing
5 year old Navello has claimed a brace of victories this year already including an impressive 1st of 10 at Windsor in June. Had a good 3rd at the Gosforth Park Cup in Newcastle too when 4lb higher than today and has shown more consistency than Connies Rose and Michaelas Boy.
15:05 3:05 Chepstow
Brightwalton
Daily Racing
Looks like a two horse race between Brightwalton and Lexington Blitz in truth. The latter won well at Windsor a month ago but conceded 12lb to Brightwalton here who impressed when 2nd at Sandown Park in July and should win if the start is strong enough.
14:35 2:35 Chepstow
Bobby Jones
Daily Racing
Favourite Inshad has form of 898 heading into this and despite being gelded since, 5/4 just seems too much of a risk. That makes Bobby Jones the next best option in my eyes. The 2yo narrowly missed out at Beverley when 3rd of 11 just over a fortnight ago and has shown more consistency throughout.
14:20 2:20 Brighton
Adelaide Bay
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
This 2yo wasn't at its best when 8th at Chelmsford in June but the increase to 7f should help here and with Hollie Doyle booked there is a real chance that this 20/1 on offer could look very good value indeed.
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Metro Dubai
Daily Racing
Disappointed at Kempton Park last time out when beaten as a favourite but is a better horse than that performance. 2nd place at Leicester in June on debut was more like it and I have question marks over odds on White Chapel Road who faded at York last time out.
14:05 2:05 Chepstow
Hawajes
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Win
300
I like the look of Hawajes at 6/1 here. A previous winner over this distance at Southwell in February and has twice gone close since at Leicester and here at Chepstow. 7f seems about right for this 4yo and Rossa Ryan is a good booking.
13:50 1:50 Brighton
Pure Liberty
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Pure Liberty looks a good option here, particularly with Silvestre De Sousa confirmed on board. Ran a very solid race at Brighton over this distance a fortnight ago when 2nd of 12, and favourite Facoulty has yet to manage a top 4 in previous three races.
Subtotal-200
01 September 2024
19:21 Race 4 Monmouth Park
Fancy Azteca
Daily Racing
Fancy Azteca is bidding for a hat trick of victories after comfortable wins at Belmont in June and then here at Monomouth Park in July. Looks a really nice filly and 6f is preferred distance.
19:17 Race 5 Saratoga
Ski Country
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Win
30
I like the look of this 4yo gelding who had a superb run last time out at Saratoga three weeks ago. Took a cracking victory there in first outing over 7f and at 11/1 will have every chance of backing that up.
19:02 Race 3 Gulfstream Park
One Sharp Cookie
Daily Racing
One Sharp Cookie is in excellent form having placed in last six consecutive outings, all here at Gulfstream Park. Gradually improved during that time too and has picked up victories in 2 of last 3 outings. Another 7f trip on the all weather suits.
18:50 Race 3 Monmouth Park
Trainer Please
Daily Racing
Trainer Please was backed into as little as 4/5 earlier today but the huge market shift for Tie Breaker (11/1 to 5/2) has meant this 6yo gelding has increased in value. I don't buy the backing of Tie Breaker myself. Trainer Please is the form horse with 2312 form over the past four races including victory at Penn National.
18:43 Race 4 Saratoga
Ice Time
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Ice Time has improved of late including a superb victory against the odds at Churchill Downs in May. 1m is preferred distance and backed the win up with a decent 3rd at Ellis Park in July. Looks to have a good each way chance with doubts about the favourites.
18:30 Race 2 Gulfstream Park
Take Your Point
Daily Racing
Take Your Point knows this track well having raced here six times since the start of April, all over 1m or 1m 1f. Has placed on numerous occasions but this is a smaller field and there isn't much to concern elsewhere. Looks most likely of the five to get off the mark.
16:00 Man Utd v Liverpool
Draw
50 WIN
@4.10
Lose
-50
Liverpool have just 3 wins at Old Trafford in the last decade and Man Utd look a sturdier side this year. 3 of the last 4 H2H games were draws and Ten Hag is good at setting his sides up defensively in the big games.
Alejandro Garnacho
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Alejandro Garnacho is a talented player and like most of his ilk, he's got that nasty streak that you need too. The Argentinian plays on the edge and against Liverpool he'll be in a battle vs Robertson on the right hand side. 5/1 worth a punt for a yellow.
Bruno Fernandes
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-50
Bruno Fernandes has 25 yellow cards across his last 3 PL seasons and often loses his head in the big games. Was booked when the sides met here at Old Trafford last year in the FA Cup.
Dominik Szoboszlai
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
I tipped a Szoboszlai yellow last week at the huge price of 10/1 and I'm backing him to go in the book again here. He's already had two red cards in his young career and will have to do a lot of tricky defensive work in the midfield.
13:30 Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Chelsea
50 WIN
@1.65
Lose
-50
Chelsea have remarkably won their previous 14 consecutive matches against Crystal Palace and after a dominant display at Wolves last weekend, I think that confidence will be on show here. Palmer, Madueke and Neto look a threat in attack and I think they'll be too strong.
Enzo Fernandez
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Enzo Fernandez is a player that plays on the edge and he picked up 7 yellow cards last season in the Premier League alone. Will be in a tough midfield battle against Wharton here and 9/2 good odds for a yellow.
Malo Gusto
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Malo Gusto has 3 cards in his past 10 matches despite only starting around half of them. He'll have his work cut out against the trickery of Eze this evening and he often makes rash challenges.
Nicolas Jackson
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@4.75
Win
188
Nicolas Jackson has huge disciplinary issues and is always worth a punt for a card. He picked up 10 yellow cards last season, causing him to miss 3 games, and was booked in just 27 mins at Servette on Thursday.
Over 4.50
Total Cards
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
Crystal Palace picked up 5 yellow cards away at Brentford and I could see another flurry of bookings here at a different west London venue. Chelsea's last two games both had 5+ bookings also.
13:30 Newcastle v Tottenham
Draw
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Injuries and suspenses on both sides see weakened teams on show. Newcastle without Schar, Willock, Botman to name a few and Tottenham with no Solanke, Richarlison or Van de Ven. I think we'll see plenty of goals as this fixture usually delivers. Both have 4pts so far and I think a score draw to keep both unbeaten is possible.
Dan Burn
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Dan Burn has picked up cards in both PL matches so far this season and he could be in for a tough afternoon against the pace of Son. Spurs will look to counter often and that will mean Burn may have to make tactical fouls which could lead to cards.
Lloyd Kelly
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@6.00
Win
250
Lloyd Kelly fills in at left back for Newcastle today. He's played their before but centre back is more preferable and this could be tricky against the pace of Son and Odobert. He was booked at Yokohama in a recent friendly and 5/1 is decent value.
Radu Dragusin
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Radu Dragusin hasn't played much football since the Euros and this will be a tough task against the pace of Gordon, Isak and Barnes. He was booked in a friendly vs Bayern recently and although his physicality is an asset, he's quite often on the borderline of a card too.
Over 4.50
Total Cards
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
There's rarely much love lost between these sides and there's been 48 yellow cards in the last 10 competitive matches. Both sides have a number of players who like a card including Bissouma, Joelinton, Bruno, Gordon, Udogie to name a few.
12:30 Joe O Connor v Louis Heathcote
Joe O Connor to win 4-2
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Mixed form of late for Joe O'Connor including a few narrow losses but he's a very good player and ranked 44 places above Heathcote, who has a poor record vs top 32 players.
12:30 Joe Perry v Ben Woollaston
Joe Perry
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Wollaston hasn't been at his best this year and I don't see him winning here. Perry has beaten him in the last 5 consecutive H2H matches and has a more solid overall game.
Joe Perry to win 4-2
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-50
Joe Perry has a 7-2 career record against Ben Woollaston and I think he'll get the job done here. A few recent losses for the world number 45 but he's a class act and Woollaston too inconsistent in my eyes.
12:30 Matthew Selt v Allan Taylor
Matthew Selt to win 4-2
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Matthew Selt has a 3-1 career record against Allan Taylor and I think he'll have enough quality to win with a little to spare again here. He's the form player with only 2 losses in his previous 10.
12:30 Pang Junxu v Stuart Carrington
Stuart Carrington
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-50
Stuart Carrington has lost only 1 of his last 7 matches heading into this and I like him in this matchup. Pang's form isn't bad but he's struggled against a similar ilk of opponent this year including losses vs Jones, Slessor, O'Connor.
12:30 Robbie Williams v Peifan Lei
Robbie Williams to win 4-2
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Robbie Williams has 11 wins in his last 18 matches so form is good heading into this and confidence high. For Peifan, its just 7 wins in 20 and I think at best he can grab a couple of frames.
12:30 Si Jiahui v Jimmy White
Si Jiahui
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.17
Win
9
I can't look past Si Jiahui here. The world number 22 has lost only 4 of his previous 18 matches and has never previously been beaten by Jimmy White.
Si Jiahui to win 4-1
Frame Betting
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
Jimmy White only has 6 wins across his last 20 matches and some of those came on the senior tour. Si Jiahui has lost just 4 of 18 and should be too good today.
09:15 Alberto Bettiol vs Maximilian Schachmann
Maximilian Schachmann
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
09:15 Arnaud De Lie vs Christophe Laporte
Christophe Laporte
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
09:15 Axel Zingle vs Matteo Trentin
Matteo Trentin
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-50
09:15 Ben Turner vs Tobias Foss
Tobias Foss
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
09:15 Fred Wright vs Per Strand Hagenes
Per Strand Hagenes
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.50
Win
75
09:15 Jasper Stuyven vs Matej Mohoric
Matej Mohoric
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
09:15 Magnus Sheffield vs Alec Segaert
Alec Segaert
Matchups
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
09:15 Mathieu Van Der Poel vs Tim Wellens
Tim Wellens
Matchups
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
09:15 Mike Teunissen vs Ivan Garcia Cortina
Ivan Garcia Cortina
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
09:15 Renewi Tour 2024 Stage 5
Alberto Bettiol
Win Outright
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Jasper Philipsen
Win Outright
50 WIN
@23.00
Lose
-50
09:15 Soren Kragh Andersen vs Florian Vermeersch
Florian Vermeersch
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
09:15 Stan Dewulf vs Frank van den Broek
Frank van den Broek
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
09:15 Tiesj Benoot vs Ilan Van Wilder
Ilan Van Wilder
Matchups
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
00:00 Long Island @ Albany
Long Island
Money Line
50 WIN
@16.50
Lose
-50
Long Island 24.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
00:00 Tennessee Tech @ Middle Tennessee St
Middle Tennessee St.
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.02
Win
1
Tennessee Tech 24.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
00:00 Western Kentucky @ Alabama
Alabama
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.01
Win
0
Western Kentucky 34.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Subtotal-578
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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